UNCLASSIFIED

U.S. NavyTask Force Climate Change

Robert Winokur Oceanographer of the Navy (Acting)

March 2012

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED

Climate Change

2UNCLASSIFIED

Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin

Arctic Warming is 2 x the Rest of the World

Total Earth Heat Content from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data taken from Domingues et al 2008

The Ocean is Storing Most of the Heat

Mean surface temperature 2001-2007 relative to baseline period 1951-1980, from:The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009

UNCLASSIFIED

U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change

3

Science-based approach, cooperative partnerships, risk assessments

Roadmaps

Science & Network

Assessment

Monitor

Conditions

UpdateRoadmaps

Inform Policy &Resource Decisions

UNCLASSIFIED 4

Navy Climate Change Concerns

Near-term Increasing Arctic maritime activity Partnership opportunities Energy security initiatives

Mid-Term Sea level rise impact on installations Water/resource challenges Potential increase in Humanitarian

Assistance/Disaster Response

Wild-cards Ocean acidification Abrupt climate change Geoengineering

5

5

Navy Arctic Strategic Objectives

II. Safeguard U.S. maritime interests in the region

IV. Strengthen existing & foster new cooperative relationships in the region

V. Ensure Navy forces are capable and ready

III. Protect the American people, our critical infrastructure, & key resources

I. Contribute to safety, stability, & security in the region

Towards the desired end state: a safe, stable, and secure Arctic

Signed by CNO on 21 May 2010

Distribution A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited; Unclassified

UNCLASSIFIED

6Enabled & informed by sound science UNCLASSIFIED

Navy Installation Vulnerability

6

Physical Impacts Inundation Wetlands Erosion patterns & rates Surface/ground water supplies Water tables Tidal flows & currents Storm & flood damage

Eglin Air Force Base

Camp Lejeune

Camp Pendleton Naval Station Norfolk

Naval Base Coronado

Navy Study • Identify most vulnerable installations• Local and regional infrastructure • Prioritize spending• Maintain mission readiness

UNCLASSIFIED

Naval Studies Board Recommendations

7UNCLASSIFIEDNavy action is already underway

Support research &development

Address emerging technical requirements (e.g. polar ops)

Address partnership demands

Address naval coastal installation vulnerabilities

Prepare for increase in HA/DR, Arctic missions

Support ratificationof UNCLOS

UNCLASSIFIED

8

It’s all about water

The

Atla

ntic

201

1

8

UNCLASSIFIED 9

Partnerships

National Unified OperationalPrediction Capability (NUOPC)

Earth SystemPrediction Capability (ESPC)

• Air Force, Navy, NOAA partnership• A managed National multi-model

ensemble prediction system.• A common modeling framework

linking operations and research.

• ESPC is a coherent, national effort to extend atmospheric, oceanic and Arctic predictions from days to months, years

and decades to meet current and future Naval warfighting and force readiness requirements.

Critical Dependence on Space Observations

UNCLASSIFIED

Accomplishments & Developments

Navy Arctic Studies- Mission Analysis- Arctic CBA- Arctic Env CBA*

10

OSD-Policy Arctic

Report to Congress

USN-USCG Staff Talks

Arctic Security

Roundtable2012

Naval War College- Fleet Arctic Ops Game

Thule AB Resupply

ICEX 2011 &Science Ice

Exercise Plan

Arctic CHODConferenceArctic Collaborative

Workshop

Recent Accomplishments:(Feb 2011 – Jan 2012)

Key Upcoming Events:

Leadership visits &

staff talks

OSD-Policy Arctic

Report to Congress

NASA IceBridge

Interagency partnership for air-ocean-ice

numerical prediction

Support for UNCLOS Accession

NASA CASIWorkshop

Conferences

USNA Interns & Curriculum Development

Naval Studies Board study

Asia Pacific Military Medical Conference 2012

Marine Corps University Journal

Improve understanding Ensure readiness (resilience)

UNCLASSIFIED 11

Facebook.com/NavyTFCCgreenfleet.dodlive.mil/climate-change/

UNCLASSIFIED

12

BACK-UP

UNCLASSIFIED

13

The Team…

Engaged nearly 600 individuals from over 175 organizations

INTERAGENCY INTERNATIONALNATIONAL

DOD

SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL