u.s. natural gas industry: dynamic as ever · development of liquids rich shales has created...

Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. 1901 N. Moore Street,, Suite 1200 Arlington, VA 22209 (703) 276 8900 www.evainc.com

Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. 1901 N. Moore Street,, Suite 1200 Arlington, VA 22209 (703) 276 8900 www.evainc.com

U.S. NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY: DYNAMIC AS EVER

• Supply Changes • Demand Changes • Infrastructure Changes • LNG Exports

Prepared for EPRI Energy and Climate Change Research Seminar Washington, D.C.

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May 21, 2013

OUTLINE

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Changing Supply Dynamics – Growth in U.S. resource base – Changes in domestic production – Continuing focus on the shales

Changing Natural Gas Infrastructure – Continued pipeline expansion – Near metamorphosis for midstream sector

Changing Demand Dynamics – Growth in the industrial sector – Changes in the electric sector – Emergence of the transportation sector

LNG Exports – Lower-48 to start exporting LNG

Changing Price Outlook – Variation in long-term outlook – Critical question: Will LNG lead to a universal gas price?

GROWTH IN U.S. RESOURCE BASE

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The Potential Resource Base Is Huge – Since 2004 Lower-48 resource base has increased 135 percent (i.e., more

than doubled) Almost all of the increase is due to the shales.

– There is a reasonable likelihood that it will continue to increase Emerging shale plays. (1)

Advances in technology.

1,003 1,001 1,0281,067 1,038 1,091

1,127 1,119

1,321

1,836 1,898

2,384

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

(TCF)

Source: Potential Gas Committee.

Lower-48 States Alaska

TOTAL POTENTIAL NATURAL GAS SOURCES BY THE POTENTIAL GAS COMMITTEE (TCF)Total Potential Natural Gas Sources By The Potential Gas Committee

(1) There are approximately 13 emerging shale plays for which the industry has leased about 12 MM acres.

GROWTH IN U.S. RESOURCE BASE

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Key Attributes Of Current Estimated Resource Base – Over 80 percent proven, probable and possible – About 55 percent of Lower-48 resource base is due to the shales (1,073 TCF)

Total Lower-48 Resource Base Major Components Of Shale Resource Base OF SHALE RESOURCE BASE (TCF)

Proven305.013%

Probable671.629%

Possible913.739%

Speculation442.019%

EXHIBIT 3: TOTAL LOWER-48 RESOURCE BASE (TCF)

TOTAL LOWER-48 = 2,332 TCF

Marcellus, Utica and

Others562.7 TCF

52%

Haynesville148.9 TCF

14%

Eagle Ford58.8 TCF

6%

Fayetteville and Woodford

116.6 TCF11%

Barnett48.0 TCF

4%

Rockies126.6 TCF

12%

Others11.41%

EXHIBIT 4: MAJOR COMPONENTS OF SHALE RESOURCE BASE (TCF)

TOTAL LOWER-48 = 1,073 TCF

SHALE PRODUCTION

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Outlook For Shale Production – Shale production currently accounts for 20 percent of U.S. production

This metric likely will increase to 50 to 55 percent.

Shale production will continue to account for almost all of the incremental

production.

U.S. Gas Production By Major Component U.S. Shale Gas Production By Play

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

(BCFD)

Other Utica (Ohio) Eagle Ford Marcellus

Haynesville Woodford Fayetteville Barnett

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

(BCFD)

Conventional Tight Sands Coalbed Methane Shales

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

20

03

20

04

(BCFD)

U.S. Shale Gas Production by Play

CANADIAN SHALES

Canada’s Shales Are Equally Prolific – Canadian conventional resources (Alberta) have become the marginal source

of supply for North America

– However, during the latter part of the decade and into the next, the emergence of Canadian shales will be significant

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0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(BCFD)Canadian Production

Other Production

Shale Production

Historical Forecasted

CANADIAN SHALES

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Kitimat

AECO

British Columbia Alberta

A

B C

E

Shale BasinsA. Liard BasinB. Horn River BasinC. Cordova EmbaymentD. Montney ShaleE. Duvernay Shale

D

Prince Rupert

Summit Lake

PrinceGeorge

Edmonton

Calgary

West Coast Pipeline

NovaPipeline

Pacific Northern Gas

TransCanadaPipeline

DOMESTIC PRODUCTION

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Near-Term Outlook – Domestic production has flattened

Also, there are the first signs of decline.

– However, for the near term there likely will be little correlation between domestic production and gas-directed drilling activity Key factor is new infrastructure coming online that eliminates bottlenecks

and increases takeaway capacity.

Lower-48 States Natural Gas Production

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

3Q

_0

1

3Q

_0

2

3Q

_0

3

3Q

_0

4

3Q

_0

5

3Q

_0

6

3Q

_0

7

3Q

_0

8

3Q

_0

9

3Q

_1

0

3Q

_1

1

3Q

_1

2

(BCFD)

Source: Lippman Consulting.

Average Annual Production Level

Quarterly Production Level

60

64

68

72

76

J-10

F-1

0

M-1

0

A-1

0

M-1

0

J-10

J-10

A-1

0

S-1

0

O-1

0

N-1

0

D-1

0

J-11

F-1

1

M-1

1

A-1

1

M-1

1

J-11

J-11

A-1

1

S-1

1

O-1

1

N-1

1

D-1

1

J-12

F-1

2

M-1

2

A-1

2

M-1

2

J-12

J-12

A-1

2

S-1

2

O-1

2

N-1

2

D-1

2

J-13

F-1

3

M-1

3

A-1

3

Monthly Wet Production Level (BCFD)

OUTLINE

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Changing Supply Dynamics

Changing Natural Gas Infrastructure – Continued pipeline expansion – Near metamorphosis for midstream sector

Changing Demand Dynamics

Changing Price Outlook

GREATEST CHANGE IN GAS INFRASTRUCTURE SINCE WWII: PHASE II (1)

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Northeast

Southeast

All Other

Total

Northeast

Southeast

All Other

Total

Northeast 51

Southeast4 All Other

2

Number of Pipeline Expansion Projects by Region

Total = 57 Projects

201225

201322

201410

Number of Pipeline Expansion Projects by Year

Total = 57 Projects

Northeast

Southeast

All Other

Total

Northeast

Southeast

All Other

Total

Northeast 51

Southeast4 All Other

2

Number of Pipeline Expansion Projects by Region

Total = 57 Projects

201225

201322

201410

Number of Pipeline Expansion Projects by Year

Total = 57 Projects

15.8

0.6 0.20.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Northeast Southeast All Other

(BCFD)Capacity Added from Expansion Projects by Region

6.6

6.0

4.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2012 2013 2014

(BCFD)Capacity Added from Expansion Projects by Year

15.8

0.6 0.20.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Northeast Southeast All Other

(BCFD)Capacity Added from Expansion Projects by Region

6.6

6.0

4.1

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2012 2013 2014

(BCFD)Capacity Added from Expansion Projects by Year

(1) See page 62-67 in the Appendix for maps of expansion projects.

CHANGING INFRASTRUCTURE: PIPELINES

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Key Driver – The key driver behind the current phase of pipeline expansion is the

development of the Marcellus and Utica shales

Key Impact – Converting the Northeast region from an importing from to an exporting

region This has a significant impact on other regions.

Natural Gas Production For The Marcellus And Utica Shales

2020

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(BCFD)

Existing Marcellus Shale Utica ShalePeak Winter Demand

(12 Northeastern States)20.5 BCFD

Summer Demand(12 Northeastern States)

8.3 BCFD

Peak Winter Demand(PA, W.VA, OH)

8.5 BCFD

Summer Demand(PA, W.VA, OH)

3.0 BCFD

Avg. Demand (12.4 BCFD)

Avg. Demand (4.8 BCFD)

Note: Includes Marcellus production from both Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

CHANGING INFRASTRUCTURE: PIPELINES

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Other Impacts – New pricing points and hubs

Provides greater transparency and liquidity.

Examples: TETCO M2, Millennium South, Leidy.

– Compression of basis differentials

Reduces delivered price of gas.

– Devaluation of storage capacity Lowers cost of services.

– Stranded pipeline assets Gas pipelines redirect flows.

- Reduces cost of transportation.

- Examples: Columbia Gulf and REX.

Gas pipelines convert to oil pipelines.

- Could increase cost of transportation.

(1) Others under consideration include REX and Texoma.

Capacity

Pipeline(1)

Region (MBD) Date

Pony Express OK Unknown Aug 2014

Trunkline Gulf 420-600 Mar 2015

EPNG Freedom P/L CA Unknown Dec 2016

TransCanada Eastern Oil P/L E. Canada 500-850 Dec 2017

Texas Gas NGL P/L Gulf 200-400 Unknown

CHANGING INFRASTRUCTURE: MIDSTREAM SEGMENT

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Development Of Liquids Rich Shales Has Created Rebirth Of U.S. Midstream Industry (NGLs)

– U.S. NGL production has increased 35 percent since 2008

Increase In NGL Production Has Created Both: – Tremendous challenges for the industry to build new infrastructure

Processing plants, fractionators, pipelines, etc.

Ethylene crackers.

– Significant regional dislocations

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500

Jan

-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Jan

-09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Jan

-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

Jan

-11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

Jan

-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

(MBD)

Source: EIA.

Monthly U.S. NGL Production From 2008-Current

CHANGING INFRASTRUCTURE: MIDSTREAM SEGMENT

Midstream Industry Currently Undergoing A Period of Rapid Expansion

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R Number of NGL Projects in 2012

Total = 68

NGL Plant48

(6,895 MMCFD)

NGL Pipelines11

(415 MBD)

Fractionators9

(279 MBD)

Number of NGL Projects in 2013

Total = 82

NGL Plant46

(7,271 MMCFD)

NGL Pipelines21

(2,258 MBD)

Fractionators15

(971 MBD)

Number of NGL Projects in 2014

Total = 29

NGL Pipelines7

(675 MBD)NGL Plant

15(2,330 MMCFD)

Fractionators7

(393 MBD)

2012 NGL Projects

Total = 6,895 MMCFD / 694 MBD / 68 Projects

NGL Plant6,895 MMCFD

(48)

Fractionators279 MBD

(9)

NGL Pipelines415 MBD

(11)

2013 NGL Projects

Total = 7,271 MMCFD / 3,229 MBD / 82 Projects


(46)


(15)

NGL Pipelines2,258 MBD

(21)

2014 NGL Projects

Total = 2,330 MMCFD / 1,068 MBD / 29 Projects


(15)

NGL Pipelines675 MBD

(7)


(7)

CHANGING INFRASTRUCTURE: NGL PIPELINES

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Approximately 7,250 Miles Of New NGL Pipelines – Until pipeline and related infrastructure expansions are completed expect

regional dislocations and bottlenecked natural gas production

MAJOR NGL PIPELINE PROJECTS

Bakken

Bushton, KS

Overland Pass

Mt. Belvieu, TX

Eunice, LA

ATEX Pipeline

MarinerEast

Mariner West

Cajun-Sibon Extension

Sand Hills

West Texas Gateway

Sterling III

Front Range

Texas Express

Southern Hills

Arbuckle

Eagle Ford Expansion

Driver Residue

Liberty

Mid-AmericaExpansion

Gulf of Mexico

Jackson to Mont Belvieu

Jackson Plant

Legend

2012 In Service

2013 In Service

2014 In Service

Ethane Pipeline

OUTLINE

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Changing Natural Gas Infrastructure

Changing Demand Dynamics – Growth in the industrial sector – Changes in the electric sector – Emergence of the transportation sector

LNG Exports


INTERMEDIATE-TERM PERSPECTIVE

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Demand Is Increasing – 1.9 percent per annum growth rate after 13 years of flat demand(1) – Growth in industrial, electric and transportation sectors – Residential and commercial sector demand primarily driven by changes in

winter weather

(1) For 13 years from 1996 to 2009 gas demand basically was flat.

22.924.1 24.4

25.5 25.4 25.626.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.3

28.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(TCF)

Other Transportation Electric Industrial Commercial Residential


HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED NATURAL GAS DEMAND

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

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Key Industries – Several industries have endorsed the concept of a long-term outlook for

sustained low gas prices and are expanding capacity

Fertilizer, Steel, Chemicals and Gas-to-Liquids.

– Wide variation in gas consumption between individual projects

Comparison of Project Type Count for Various Industries

NewFertilizer 4Steel 12Gas-to-Liquids 2Chemical 24Total 42

ExpandFertilizer 7Steel 2Gas-to-Liquids 0Chemical 10Total 19

RestartFertilizer 4Steel 0Gas-to-Liquids 0Chemical 5Total 9

Total Projects = 70

Gas-to-Liquids24%

Fertilizer30%

Methanol18%

Petrochemicals23%

Steel5%

Impact of Capacity Expansion on Industrial Gas Demand

Total = 3.6 BCFD

Comparison of Project Type Count for Various Industries

NewFertilizer 4Steel 12Gas-to-Liquids 2Chemical 24Total 42

ExpandFertilizer 7Steel 2Gas-to-Liquids 0Chemical 10Total 19

RestartFertilizer 4Steel 0Gas-to-Liquids 0Chemical 5Total 9

Total Projects = 70

Gas-to-Liquids24%

Fertilizer30%

Methanol18%

Petrochemicals23%

Steel5%

Impact of Capacity Expansion on Industrial Gas Demand

Total = 3.6 BCFD

Comparison Of Project Type Court For Various Industries Impact Of Capacity Expansion On industrial Gas Demand

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

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Impact of Capacity Expansion on Industrial Gas Demand: By Year(1)

2010/20112% 2012

10%

20139%

20147%

201516%

201618%

201710%

201816%

201912%

Impact of Capacity Expansion on Industrial Gas Demand: By Year

Total = 3.6 BCFD

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

Composite Assessment – Likely exceed 2000 demand levels by 2020

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R Industrial Sector Gas Demand

8.1

7.37.5

7.27.2

6.66.5

6.7 6.7

6.2

6.86.9

7.1

7.37.5

7.6

7.98.0

8.2

8.58.6

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(TCF)

Source: EIA and EVA.

Demand Destruction due to Hurricanes Historical Forecasted

Price

Elasticity Effects

Gre

at Re

cessio

n

ELECTRIC SECTOR

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Gas-Fired Generation Heavily Dependent Upon The Outlook For Other Types Of Generation

– Coal Coal-to-gas fuel switching peaked in 2012 (6.1 BCFD).

- Fuel switching is a key factor in lowering U.S. CO2 emissions.

Coal plants retiring between 2012 and 2020 (63 GW or 22 percent of fleet).

– Nuclear New units online 2015 to 2020 (six units or 6.9 GW).

- Offset by some recent retirements (four units or 2.6 GW).

– Renewables Nearly 70 percent of the states have mandates.(1)

Uncertainty over status of federal subsidies.

- Impairs financing.

There are over 1,000 state level renewable subsidies.

– Gas Capacity Industry will add new combined cycle units (154 GW by 2020).

However, average capacity factor of fleet will decline.

(1) Qualification criteria for renewables varies significantly by state.

COAL-TO-GAS FUEL SWITCHING

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Key Impact Decline in U.S. CO2 Emissions – Back to early 1990s levels – May defuse immediate action by Congress on the issue for environmental

reasons

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800

6,000

6,200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(Million Metric Tons)

Note: 2012 CO2 emissions are estimated.Source: EIA MER, STEO.

United States CO2 Emissions

ELECTRIC SECTOR

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Composite Assessment – Growth continues but offset by decline in fuel switching as gas prices

increase – Impact on new nuclear capacity significant

Electric Sector Natural Gas Demand

14

.2

14

.6 15

.5

14

.1 15

.0 16

.1 17

.0 18

.7

18

.3

18

.8 20

.2

20

.8

25

.1

22

.3

22

.4 24

.0

23

.2

22

.9

22

.1

22

.5

23

.0

28

.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

20

(BCFD)

Hot Summer Coal-to-Gas Fuel Switching Demand .


Wit

hC

O2

Tax

CO2 Tax

TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

Growth Concentrated in Heavy Duty Vehicle Sector – LDV: Significant penetration unlikely

Lack of refueling stations.(1)

Range and cost.

– HDV: Likely significant penetration

Joint ventures without subsidies targeting semi-tractor trailer vehicles is key

driver.

- Clean Energy Fuels partnerships.

• Goal is 150 stations in 33 states.

- Shell/Travel Centers of America.

• Goal is 100 locations with 200 fuel lanes.

- Trillium CNG/AMP Americas.

• Goal is I-65 and I-75.

- Apache/Stripes convenience stores.

- Questar/Swift Transportation/Central Freight Lines

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(1) Less than 1,000 natural gas refueling stations in the U.S., with only about 50% open to the public.

Represents 0.4% of all U.S. refueling stations.

TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

For long-haul trucks focus is on specific interstate corridors (i.e., continuous

Point A to Point B routes).

Fleet vehicles, railroads and barges also converting.(1),(2)

- Particularly the mileage intensive waste management fleet.

- Others: UPS, Ryder Trucking, CNG buses.

Favorable economics.(3)

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(1) Shell/Edison Chouest Offshore and Shell/Interlake Steamship Co. enter into agreements for inland water vessels. (2) Taxi fleets in New York, Las Vegas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Columbus and Grand Rapids are converting some of their vehicles to natural gas.

(3) Long-haul trucks - three-year payback. Waste management trucks - 12-18 month payback. Assumes 3.91 per gallon diesel and $1.70 per

diesel gallon-equivalent of LNG. Also, $65,000 to $75,000 higher costs for conversion or new natural gas engine.

Natural Gas Demand For The Transportation Sector

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

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(BCFD)


Phase I:Pilot Phase

Phase II:First Movers

Phase III:Economics Dictate

OUTLINE

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Changing Natural Gas Infrastructure

Changing Demand Dynamics

LNG Exports – Lower-48 to start exporting LNG


NORTH AMERICAN LNG: A FEW HIGHLIGHTS

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29 Liquefaction Projects Proposed (41 BCFD) – Equals 130 percent of global LNG demand

Lower-48 Exports To Start In 2016 – Two projects to proceed (Sabine Pass (TX) and Elba Island (GA))

Very debatable for remaining projects

– 87% of U.S. capacity located in the Gulf – 50% brownfield, 32% greenfield and 18% floaters – Intense global competition for available market(1)

Gulf(17)87%

Pacific(2)8%

Atlantic(2)5%

Location

Major and Foreign Partner Involvement

Note: Percentages are based on capacity (26.7 BCFD).Number in parenthesis represents the number of projects.

Footnote: 1. 31 viable liquefaction projects (27.4 BCFD) elsewhere in the world, with 23 earmarked for the Asian market (24 BCFD).

NORTH AMERICAN LNG

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Only 29 Percent Of U.S. Capacity Has Contract Commitments – Not all MOUs are binding

A

BC

D

E

F

G

A

BC

D

EF

A

B

C

A

B

C

D

U.S. LNG COMMITMENTS TO DATE (BCFD) (1)

Total = 7.6 BCFD

All Other Countries1.6 BCFD

21%

Japan1.9 BCFD

26%

Major LNG Firms2.4 BCFD

32%

Note:1. In general, no destination clauses.

India1.6 BCFD

21%

NORTH AMERICAN LNG

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Some Proposed Projects Are More Competitive Than Others

1a Sabine Pass LNG Phase I 9 Corpus Christi LNG I Valdez, AK

1b Sabine Pass LNG Phase II 10 Port Lavaca (Floater)

1c Sabine Pass LNG Phase III 11 CE LNG (Floater)

2a Cameron LNG Terminal-Phase I 12A Elba Island-Phase I A1 Kitimat LNG Phase I-II

2b Cameron LNG Terminal-Phase II 12B Elba Island-Phase II A2 Kitimat LNG Phase III

3 Cove Point 13 SB Power Solutions B Douglas Channel LNG/BC LNG Export Co-op

4 Jordan Cove Energy 14 Gulf LNG Clean Energy C Penn West LNG

5 Oregon LNG 15 Golden Pass D Pacific Northwest LNG

6 Lake Charles 16 Waller LNG E LNG Canada

7a Freeport LNG-Phase II 17 Magnolia LNG-Phase I F Golboro LNG

7b Freeport LNG-Phase I 18 Main Pass Energy Hub G1 BG LNG Terminal-Phase I

8 Gulf Coast LNG Export 19 South Texas LNG Export G2 BG LNG Terminal-Phase II

G3 BG LNG Terminal-Phase III

Note: Projects with green shading indicate transportation cost advantage. H Atlas Gas

I. U.S. Lower 48 States II. U.S. Alaska

III. Canada

1a, 2a

1b

1c

2b, 7a

3

4

5, 11, 20

6, 15

7b

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9

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12, 14

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A2

B

C

F

A1, D,E, G1

G2G3

H

0

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Ab

ility

to

FIn

ance

an

d O

pe

rate

Pro

ject

Ability to Respond to Intense Competition

Assessment of Proposed North American Liquefaction Projects

(Low) (High)

(Lo

w)

(Hig

h)

13b

13b

NATURAL GAS PRICES

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Two Challenging Questions

– For U.S.: What is the long-term outlook for gas prices Prices will increase from 2012 levels, but how much?

Is the current era of low gas prices sustainable?

– Global Question: Will LNG lead to a single gas price throughout the world? What are the key drivers?

What are the key impediments?

How long before such a transition could occur?

Topic For Another Presentation

NATURAL GAS PRICE

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New Era For North American Gas Market – Lower gas price regime with reduced price volatility(1)

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Weekly Data

(1) Job openings for commodity traders, particularly natural gas traders, declined 49 percent in 2012. At present there are

13 applicants for every 3 commodity trader openings.

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

19

90

19

91

19

92

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93

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19

99

20

00

20

01

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02

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03

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20

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20

07

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08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

($/MMBTU)

Source: NGW and EVA, Inc.

Era of Gas Bubble

High Priced Era

Era of 'Game

Changing' Shales

FINAL NOTE

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If You Want More Information Consult The Following: U.S. Supply

– EPRI, Natural Gas and Power in the Marcellus Super-Region: Regional and National Implications (1024068), November 2012

– EPRI, Impact on Environmental Issues on Shale Gas Supply ( ), November 2012

– EPRI, Impacts of the Power Sector in Natural Gas Markets Under Climate Change ( ), December 2009

– EPRI, New Era of Natural Gas Capability: Technical Briefing on Shale Gas Economics or “Breakeven” Prices, September 2011

Infrastructure – EPRI, Natural Gas and Power in the Marcellus Super-Region: Regional and

National Implications (1024068), November 2012 – EPRI, Market Impacts of Changing Natural Gas Infrastructure (015703),

October 2008 – EPRI, U.S. Natural Gas Infrastructure: Continuing Pipeline Expansion,

December 2010

FINAL NOTE

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U.S. Demand – EPRI, Tracking Power Plant Development: Gas and Wind Dominate Industry

Capacity Plans, September 2012 – EPRI, The Build-Up of Natural Gas Demand, October 2012

LNG – EPRI, Impacts of Power Sector on Natural Gas Markets Under Climate

Change, ( ), December 2009 – EPRI, Global Natural Gas Market Analysis (1014921), February 2008 – EPRI, Putting LNG into Perspective on a Global Basis (1013693), July 2006

u.s. natural gas industry: dynamic as ever · development of liquids rich shales has created...

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