US MIGRATION METHODOLOGYFrom 1990 to 2011

By Travis Goldade

OUTLINE

• Back ground/Project Idea• What is Migration• Why am I interested• Historical Migration Trends

• Domestic and World

• Past Studies

• Discussion my plan• Ideal Vs Practical

OVERVIEW: WHAT IS MIGRATION?

• Migration- the study of where people go and why

• Often described by Push & Pull Factors

• PushPolitical instability, War, Famine

• PullEconomics, Population, Cultural, Sociological

QUICK REVIEW

VS

WORLD MIGRATION

From the start

Started in Africa 200,00 Years agoPolynesia wasn’t settled till ~1000 A.D.

Reason For Migration:

• Invasions• Famine • Climate Change

Survival

WORLD MIGRATION

Age of Exploration ~1600 to 1800

First major Migration of people for social needs(Printing Press)

Reason For Migration:

• Religious persecution • Nationalism

Freedom

WORLD MIGRATION

Industrial/Modern Migration ~1800 to Today

Better Transportation (steam engine)

Reason For Migration:

• Labor Migration (international)• Urbanization (Internal)

Money

WORLD MIGRATION

Trends

Migration Follows Change

• Climatic, Resource Based• People had to move to live

• Renascence Social Revolution• Moved for Freedom

• Industrial Revolution• Moved for Money• Political Shocks (fall of USSR)

It is Accelerating

More people are moving

16th -18th century 200 thousand people moved to America

19th century over 50 Million people moved to America

People move more for Economic reasons todayProduct of Globalization

HISTORICAL US ECON(1900’S TO 1980)• Product of Britain's Industrial Revolution

• Econ was driven by manufacturing• 1900-1950’s (Industrial Rev)

• Strong immigration towards urban centers• Reason = Jobs (Economic Pull)

• 1950 – 1980’s (Better Technology)• Increase is transportation systems

• Pull away from the urban centers (suburbs)• Move towards Manufacturing centers

• Suburbs of Detroit• Move towards more desirable locations

• Nicer climate, less stress etc..

• Common Trends• East to West & North to South• Went to Urban centers

INTERNET REVOLUTION

• Since the internet things have changed…• No longer are we a Manufacturing based industry (that goes to China) • We are information based and serviced based.

• Primarily because we live in a notion were goods are cheep but people are expensive• So we cannot afford to pay people

• We are now serviced and Information based

• This has changed our jobs• And our migration

MIGRATION TRENDSCURRENT (1990-PRESENT)

• Movement Away from Urban Centers• Rural Areas becoming much more populated

• These are more desirable (cheaper, and you can still get a decent job)• Population is less mobile

• Reason for this is jobs are not as centralized• We moved from manufacturing industry• To service and Information/tech based industry

• We don’t have to go a large factory • Job providers have more flexibility (they don’t have to be next to a mine or port)

MY OBSERVATION OF HISTORICAL MIGRATION

• Push Factors = Survival & Social• You only move if you have to

• Pull Factors = Econ and Leisure• You move because you want to

• Push is more common in poor areas• Pull is more common in 1st world

BACKGROUND & IDEA

• Goal is to better understand US migration patterns• Modern (since the Internet Revolution)

• Migration is a strong economic indicator• Data readily available• Complex analyses is every seldom used for this topic

• Migration is Difficult to understand till time passes

• Focus on differing political & economic times (Modern Booms and Busts)• This is a poorly under stood topic

• Typically booms = ordered• Busts = Chaos

WHY MIGRATION?

• To pass this class?

• Internal Migration = strong economic indictor• People follow the money (where will we end up after graduation?)

• If they don’t that is where they spend it (Retirees)• That area then benefits

• The dust is just starting to settle on the internet revolution• Effects are still not known (similar to the industrial rev)• Migration patterns have changed..

• As far as I can tell this is completely novel

• This is Interesting, but probably not too practical

LITERATURE

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

The Findings were not that surprising• There were hubs (US, Germany ect)• The world is shrinking (small world)• South to North pull• People head to larger populations

Gravity Model Applied• F= flow• G= const• D= Distance• M=Economic Mass

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE

• Weighted Gravity Model Matrix• Language, Religion, Economic power ect

• They combined these in a 5 point metric • Referenced in a book I could not access

Log(N) =3.38 in 2000 Log(N) =1.36 in 2000

MODERN US MIGRATION

Trends

Flow from East to West

Economic & Social based • People move for leisure• Educated young males most

likely

Not vey well studied

Influx migration strong indicator of healthy economy

Pull Factors• High Employment• Larger Populations (Urbanization)• Housing

Push Factors• High Taxes (Government?)

Good Economic times Orderedpeople go where the jobs are

Bad Economic times Chaotic

MY PROPOSAL

• Ideally I would like to develop a gravity model for the US Internal Migration• Factors would include All major push an pull factors :

• Population• Local Tax Rates• Distance from large companies• Housing Costs • Political Affiliation ….

• This is impractical• I simply cannot get that data• Could not analyze it• I think elements in gravity model would change

• During different economic time frames

MY PROPOSAL

• Compromise• Just looking at Population migration between counties

• IRS has this data from 1990 to 2011

• Also look at Political affiliation of each county• Ideally I would like to look at county government afflation

• Again this is impractical

• Presidential voting turn outs• Nice easy to digest data• UNR has this data• I could get in great detail with it

• Look at this Data in differing Economic and Political time frames

MY PROPOSAL

• Time Frames to consider

• Economic

• 1990-1994: Formation of Internet

• 1995-2001: Dot Com Boom

• 2002-2004: Early 2000’s Recession

• 2004-2007: Housing Boom

• 2008-2013?: Great Recession

• 2013-present getting out of it?

• Political

1988-1992: Bush Sr. (Rep)

• 1992-2000: Clinton (Dem)

• 2000-2008: Bush Jr. (Rep)

• 2008-Present : Obama (Dem)

HOUSING BOOM

HOUSING BUST

MY PROPOSAL• Questions to answer

• Overall is there a trend to move to one political affiliation?• Are we more likely to move to a Republican or Democrat County?

• Is there a correlation between National and local political afflation ?• Are we more likely to move to a Republican county when we have a Republican President

and visa versa?

• How about differing economic times?• During a boom where do we tend to go? • How about a bust?

• Are there communities that from• Does forming a community = economic strength

WHAT AM I EXPECTING

• I am expecting a loose correlation • Dot Com Boom people headed west

• Cali• General Trend West

• Housing Boom People went to cheep homes • Las Vega, the south and West

• Recession ….. God only knows• If anything there has been tending towards the Mid West

• Expect different strengths of correlation when comparing• Flux vs net

• Expecting Current time frame to be the most interesting• Migration is not well

understood during Recessions

• Obviously this was a big one

SUMMATION

Complex Analysis has rarely been applied to migration

• Historically people move following change & Survival

• World Scale• People are moving to

Economic Hubs• They move more out of

Necessity

• US Scale• People move for leisure• Typically follow housing prices &

job opportunities• Poorly understood

• People tend to follow money• Strong Economic Indicator

• I propose • Map county by county map of

the US from 1990 to 2011• Look for patterns

• Particularly Political Patterns

QUESTIONS