us growth reporter - q1 2017 · austria czech republic estonia latvia lithuania belarus ukraine...
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Europe Market Dynamics
Sujoy Ghosh
GROWTH REPORTER
2Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
2
INTRODUCTION
Compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods
sector across Europe.
Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market.
Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels
Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by
Nielsen in each of these countries and channels
Reports on the 1st Quarter of 2018
Week 01, 2018 till week 13, 2018
3Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
3
ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWS IN EUROPE
After a strong end to 2017, FMCG performance in Q1 weakened slightly with volume growth receding to +0.9%
(down from +1.7% in Q4). However this is still close to the underlying trend of the last 12 months.
Nominal sales across Europe increased by +3.7%, down from +4.4% in Q4. There was also a growth upside in Q1
from an early Easter in 2018.
Inflationary pressures continue with unit value growth of +2.8%. At the moment there is no indication across most of
the bigger European economies, that FMCG spend is being impacted by the continuation of moderate inflation.
Looking ahead, Q2 will be better indication of both consumer sentiment and shopper behaviour for the rest of the
year.
Context
European Union (EU28) GDP growth slowed at the start of 2018 after a stronger than expected 2017.
The more sluggish economic growth (+0.4%) in Q1 was related to some degree by cold weather but the consensus
is that this is that start of a normalization of growth after a number of years of monetary stimulus by the ECB.
Trend
4Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
Europe Growth numbers are restated from Q2 2016 as some of country restated their growth numbers
Europe - Austria, Belgium , Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,
Turkey, UK.
0.5%
0.8% 1.1% 0.5%0.9%
1.3%
-0.3%
2.0%
0.5%
1.7%
0.9%
1.1%
2.3%2.7%
0.5%
0.6%0.9%
1.0%
2.0%
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%1.6%
3.1%
3.8%
1.1%
1.6%
2.2%
0.8%
4.0%
3.1%
4.4%
3.7%
2016 2017 MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal Value Growth
REGIONAL SUMMARY – EUROPE
5Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
Q1 2018 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2017)Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-1.3%-1.3%
-1.0%-1.0%
-1.8%-0.7%
-0.8%
0.8%
2.6%
1.0%
2.4%
0.2% 0.6%1.8%
1.1%0.8% 0.9%
4.7%3.9%
4.4%
2.3%0.7%
1.9%1.8%
2.0% 3.0%2.1% 3.4%
2.0%0.3% 2.0%
0.7%
2.9%
2.6%1.5%
3.0%3.6% 3.7%
-0.1%
0.9%
3.8%
13.3%
-0.6%
0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4%
2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3%4.1% 4.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.8%
8.3%
15.6%
Volume growth Unit value Nominal Value Growth
6Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
Denmark
Finland
Poland
France
Germany
SpainPortugal
Greece
ItalyTurkey
Switzer-land
Austria
CzechRepublic
Estonia
Latvia
LithuaniaBelarus
Ukraine
RomaniaHungary
SlovakiaMoldova
Bulgaria
Russia
Ireland
Great Britain
Monte-negro
Serbia
Slovenia
Croatia Bosnia-Herze-govina
Mace-donia
Albania
Norway
Nether-lands
Belgium
Sweden
Nominal Growth
Q1 2018 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2017)
Growth Rate above Europe Average
Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average
Growth Rate below “Zero”
7Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
Denmark
Finland
Poland
France
Germany
SpainPortugal
Greece
ItalyTurkey
Switzer-land
Austria
CzechRepublic
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Belarus
Ukraine
RomaniaHungary
Slovakia Moldova
Bulgaria
Russia
Ireland
Great Britain
Monte-negro
Serbia
Slovenia
Croatia Bosnia-Herze-govina
Mace-donia
Albania
Norway
Nether-lands
Belgium
Sweden
Unit Value Growth
Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average
Growth Rate below “Zero”
Growth Rate above Europe Average
Q1 2018 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2017)
8Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
Denmark
Finland
Poland
France
Germany
SpainPortugal
Greece
ItalyTurkey
Switzer-land
Austria
CzechRepublic
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Belarus
Ukraine
RomaniaHungary
Slovakia Moldova
Bulgaria
Russia
Ireland
Great Britain
Monte-negro
Serbia
Slovenia
Croatia Bosnia-Herze-govina
Mace-donia
Albania
Norway
Nether-lands
Belgium
Sweden
Volume Growth
Growth Rate between “Zero” and Europe Average
Growth Rate below “Zero”
Growth Rate above Europe Average
Q1 2018 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2017)
9Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
9
MAJOR COUNTRIES
10Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
10
FRANCEHighlights
2018 begun with a decreasing first period (-1.3%) due to a calendar effect (one business day less compared to last year).
Better performance on P2 and P3 permitted to balance, closing Q1 with a +1% value growth on French FMCG market.
However, the high volume losses at the beginning of the year have not been compensated and the first quarter stands negative on
volumes.
Premiumization is still the growing pillar behind FMCG growth.
French FMCG market is still driven by long term trends with a growing demand on non-dairy and dairy fresh food, organic products,
small brands, click & drive services and urban convenience stores.
Context
Trend
11Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
11
FRANCEFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
0.3% -0.1% 0.1%
2.2%
0.3%
-0.2%
0.2% 0.0%
3.3%
-0.2%
1.7%
-1.0%
1.2%
0.1%
1.9%
0.3%
0.2%0.8% 0.3%
-0.7% -0.1%
1.3%
1.2%
2.0%
1.5%
0.0%
2.0%
2.5%
0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
-0.7%
3.2%
1.1%
2.9%
1.0%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Data has been restated from 2016
12Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
12
UKHighlights
Economic growth has weakened in Q1 and UK and the Eurozone's economy outgrew the UK for the first time
since 2010.
There has been a slowdown in overall UK consumer spend particularly in non-food and out-of-home channels
where sales have declined in recent months in many sectors e.g clothing, homewares.
However, consumer spend has remained resilient in FMCG channels.
With Discounters growing sales by +13% and a market share of 14% (Homescan FMCG, MAT to Q1), this has
maintained Nominal sales growth at +3%.
Unit value growths increased slightly to +2%. Inflation across the economy as a whole peaked at the start of 2018
after 18 months of increase following the depreciation of sterling in late 2016.
FMCG volume growths remain broadly unchanged at +1% with shoppers still `trading up` e.g premium private label.
Context
Trend
13Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
13
UKFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
1.5%0.1%
1.4%0.4% 0.2%
1.4%2.3%
1.7%
-0.3% 0.4%
-0.9%
0.9% 1.0%
-0.5%
2.1%
-0.8%
2.4%
0.2%
-1.9% -1.6%
-0.4% 0.5%
3.3%
2.9%
1.8%2.0%
1.0%
2.2%
0.6%
2.9%
0.4%
-0.4%
0.7%
1.3%
0.1%
3.7%
2.1%
2.8%3.0%
2016 2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: All data from Q2 2017 has been restated.
14Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
14
GERMANYHighlights
The German economy continues to develop positively. The economic growth is estimated to grow by +2.3% in Q1 2018 versus Q1
2017.
This positive growth is mainly driven by the consumption of private households which is influenced by a decreasing rate of
unemployment (5.5% for March 2018). Also affecting the growth are a higher demand and rising investments.
Q1 shows a total growth rate of +4.4%. The growth for Q1 is mostly value driven (3.6%), while volume shows a small growth by 0.8%.
Regarding the channels hypermarkets show the highest growth rate with 6.1%, followed by drug stores with 4.0% for Q1.
Due to price increases of dairy products, categories like butter, milk and cheese are growing in value sales. In the near food category
hair care products show the highest growth rate for Q1 with 7.1%.
Context
Trend
15Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
15
GERMANYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.6%-0.5% 0.1% -0.6%
-0.1%-0.3%
-2.1%
0.0% -1.1%
0.9%0.8%
2.7%
1.2%
3.2%
0.4%1.0% 1.7% 1.3%
2.9%3.1%
3.2%3.6%2.0%
0.7%
3.3%
-0.2%
0.9%1.4%
-0.8%
2.8%
1.9%
4.0%4.4%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Data has been restated from 2016
16Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
16
SPAINHighlights
Economic recovery still in advance. Spanish government has recently raised four tenths the expected economic growth to 2,7%.
We are facing a reduction in the unemployment rate, from 16,5% at the end of 2017 to 15% by the end of 2018.
Once again, tourism has played an important role to support economic recovery. At the end of first quarter, Spain registered an
increase of 6% of international tourists who spend a 7,7% more than in the same period of last year.
We have to pay attention to raising petrol prices. It will be a challenge for economic recovery and could have impact in family budgets.
In Spain, price evolution turns into the key factor to explain what is happening in FMCG market. Whether in 2017 demand was the
driver, now inflation is supporting Spanish FMCG growing, 3,1% at the end of first quarter.
Performance at January and March was not good in terms of volume and value due to calendar effects with New Year’s Day and
Easter, and also prices raised 2,9% in the first quarter, when inflation at the same period of last year was very tiny, with obvious
consequences in volume evolution.
Context
Trend
17Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
17
SPAINFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2.1% 1.4% 1.9%
-0.1%
2.3%2.4%
0.9%
2.8%
1.5%
3.2%
0.2%
1.8%
1.7%
2.2%
2.4%
1.6%1.3%
1.5%
1.0% 2.7%
2.1%
2.9%
4.0%
3.1%
4.1%
2.3%
3.9%3.7%
2.4%
3.7%
4.3%
5.3%
3.1%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
18Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
18
ITALYHighlights
The first three months of 2018 have been positively affected by Easter, that last year was celebrated in April.
Nonetheless, after a high-performing year-ending quarter, in January retailers struggled with falling revenues. Afterwards, growth has
been generally moderate.
Sales volumes have been growing, but the average product price has slowed down, probably as a result of rising inflation.
As seen in the past year, food (and, above all, fresh food) drives growth all over the market. The latest change is that traditional “basic”
ingredients like pasta and rice are loosing ground against ready-to-eat (yet healthy) products.
Context
Trend
19Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
19
ITALYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
1.7%
2.4%2.1%
1.4%2.1%
-0.5%
3.1% 2.6%
1.7%
2.4%
0.9%
0.9%
-0.9% -1.0%-0.5% 0.7%
0.9%
0.6% 1.3%0.7%2.6%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
1.6%
0.2%
4.0%
3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
2017 MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
20Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
20
OTHER COUNTRIES
21Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
AUSTRIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2.9% 2.3% 2.6% 2.3%
0.6%
3.2%3.1%
5.2%
2.4% 1.1%1.8%
1.5%
0.4%
1.7%
0.2%
0.6%
0.2% 0.5%
1.1%
1.4%
2.6%1.5%
4.3%
2.7%
4.3%
2.5%
1.2%
3.4% 3.6%
6.3%
3.9%3.7%
3.3%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: Data are restated from Q2 2016
22Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
BELGIUMFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.1%
-1.2%
-0.2%
-2.9%
-0.8% -1.1%-0.9%
1.4%
-0.8% -0.3% -0.7%
1.4%2.0% 1.7%
2.9%2.3%
1.7%0.9%
1.4%
1.2%
2.1% 2.1%1.3%
0.8%
1.5%
0.0%
1.5%
0.6%
0.0%
2.8%
0.4%
1.8%1.4%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
23Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
CZECH REPUBLICFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.7%
1.8%
-0.1%
2.9%2.1%
2.8%
-1.3%-0.3% -1.6%
0.2% 0.9%
4.8%0.6% 4.8%
-1.1%-0.4%
1.1%
3.4%
4.7%
6.0% 5.3%
3.7%
4.1%
2.4%
4.7%
1.8% 1.7%
3.9%
2.1%
4.3% 4.4%
5.5%
4.6%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: Due to exclusion of some categories, data are restated from Q2 2016
24Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
24
DENMARKFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.9%-0.9%
-0.2%-0.6%
-1.5%
-0.1%
-1.4%
-0.4% -1.3%
1.8%2.1%
-0.3%0.0%
0.7% 1.2%
2.3%2.6%
1.9%0.9%
1.2%
-0.4% -0.5%-0.7%
1.1%0.9%
2.2%
0.6%
2017 MAT TY Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: Data are restated from Q2 2016
25Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
25
FINLANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
1.0%
1.5%
0.5%
2.1%1.8% 1.7% 2.1%
3.2%
2.6%
0.6%
-1.0%
0.7%
-0.3%
1.1%
-0.9% -0.8%
-0.2%
-0.7%-1.1% -0.7%
1.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.3%
1.6%
1.2%1.1%
1.4% 1.4%
2.1%1.9%
1.6%
0.8%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: Data are restated from Q2 2016
26Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
26
GREECEFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.4% 1.2% -0.5%4.5%
2.5%
-0.3% -1.1% -0.5%
-0.8% 0.6%-0.1%
2.3%
-8.0%
5.0%
-15.3%
-8.7%
-2.6%
-5.3%
2.4%
5.8% 5.9%
4.7%2.0%
-6.8%
4.5%
-10.7%
-6.2%
-2.9%
-6.4%
1.9%
5.0%6.4%
4.6%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth
27Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
27
HUNGARYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
1.6%
2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1%
3.4%
1.5%
3.7%
0.2%
3.6%4.4%
4.3%
1.4%
4.5%
0.8%0.7%
1.5%
2.1%
2.8%
5.1%
4.6% 3.8%6.0%
3.6%
7.0%
3.2%2.8%
4.8%
3.6%
6.5%
5.3%
8.2% 8.3%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
28Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
28
IRELANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2.2%0.8%
2.6%1.3%
0.3%
1.5% 2.2%
4.9%
2.4%1.6%
2.6%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.3%
1.3%
1.2%
0.6%
-2.1%
-0.6%-0.4%
0.6%0.3%
2.0%
0.8%
2.9%2.6%
1.5%
2.1%
0.1%
4.3%
2.0% 2.2%
2.9%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: Data are restated from Q2 2016
29Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
29
NETHERLANDSFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.3%-0.1% -0.3% -0.6%
0.5%
-1.5%
1.3%
-0.5% 0.3%-0.8%
2.8%3.3%
0.8% 1.0%
1.1%
1.0%
2.3%
3.3%
3.5%3.4%
2.5%
3.2%
0.6% 0.4%
1.6%
-0.5%
3.6%
2.8%
3.8%
2.6%
2017 MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: Due to inclusion of some categories, data are restated from Q2 2016
30Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
30
NORWAYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.2%-0.4%
0.4%
1.6%
-0.6% -0.2%
-1.6%
1.9%
0.5%
0.6% 0.8%
2.0%
3.2%
1.6%
2.7%
3.1%2.9%
3.6%
-0.5%
0.9%
1.8% 2.0%1.8%
2.9%
2.0%
4.3%
2.6%2.7%
2.0%
1.4% 1.5%
2.4%
2.8%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: Data are restated from Q2 2016
31Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
31
POLANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2.1% 1.7%3.0%
4.2%
1.6%
2.8%
-0.9%
3.4%
1.6%
3.7% 3.9%
2.5%
1.5%
2.4% 0.1%
1.1%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
3.0%
2.2%
0.9%
4.7%
3.2%
5.4%
4.3%
2.8%
4.8%
1.1%
5.4%
4.6%
5.9%
4.8%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
32Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
32
PORTUGALFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
1.2%1.4%
1.6% 1.2%
2.7%
3.4%
0.3%
3.7%
0.2%
2.9%
1.1%
3.0%
0.6%
3.2%
-0.9%
0.4%0.6%
1.2%
2.4%
2.8%
3.8%
3.0%
4.2%
2.0%
4.8%
0.3%
3.1%
4.0%
1.6%
6.1%
3.0%
6.7%
4.1%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
33Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
33
SLOVAKIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3.2% 2.6%2.4%
2.2%
4.4%2.9%
2.0%
6.2%
-0.6%
4.2%
-1.8%
3.1%
-0.1%
3.2%
-1.9% -1.7%
-0.3%
2.4%
3.2%
4.8%
3.3%
3.0%
6.4%
2.5%
5.6%
0.4%
2.7% 2.6%
4.3%
9.4%
4.2%
7.5%
1.2%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
34Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
34
SWEDENFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.1%
1.0%
0.4%
1.2%
3.6%
1.1%
-1.2%
1.6%
-0.4%0.7%
0.6%
2.6%0.2%
2.9%
-0.4% -0.6%
0.1%
0.7%
1.8%
3.0%
3.3%
2.6%
2.4%
1.2%
3.3%
0.9%
3.1%
1.1%
-0.4%
3.4%
2.6%
4.0%
3.2%
2017 MAT TY MAT YA Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: Data are restated from Q2 2016
35Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
35
SWITZERLANDFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.3%
-0.7%-0.7%
-1.3%
-0.7%
0.7%
0.1%
-0.2%-0.4%
1.0%
-1.3%
0.5%
1.3%
0.4%
1.0%1.4%
1.1%
1.2%
-0.4%
-0.3%
0.5%
0.7%0.1%
0.6%
-0.3%-0.4%
0.7%
1.8%
1.4%
-0.6%-0.7%
1.5%
-0.6%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Note: Data are restated from Q2 2016
36Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
36
TURKEYFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
5.1%4.9%
4.3% 3.7% 4.5%
6.1%5.7% 5.7%
4.7%
4.5%
2.3%
9.4%
5.9%
11.1%
6.9% 5.7%4.7%
6.1%
8.6%10.3%
12.3%
13.3%
14.5%
10.8%
15.4%
10.5% 10.1%10.8%
11.8%
14.3%15.0%
16.8%
15.6%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
Based on Bimonthly reporting cycles
Categories covered in food and drug channels
Bosnia
Bulgaria
Croatia
Estonia
Israel
Latvia
Lithuania
Macedonia
Romania Russia
Serbia Slovenia
Ukraine
EXTENDED EUROPE
38Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
38
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
0.1%
7.9%
-4.0%
1.0%
7.8%
0.0%-0.8%
1.1%5.4%
8.4% 9.8%
-1.3%
0.8%
-2.6%
-2.6% -3.5%
-1.4%
-1.5%-0.9%
0.5%
1.0% 0.9%
-1.1%
8.7%
-6.6%
-1.5%
4.3%
-1.4%-2.2%
0.3%
5.9%
9.4%
10.7%
2016 2017 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr-Aug 16 Aug-Dec 16 Dec-Apr 17 Apr-Aug 17 Aug-Dec 17
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
39Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
39
BULGARIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
5.0%
1.7%
5.0%
0.5% 0.9%
2.6% 3.1%3.9%
4.6%
6.7%
4.9%
2.7%
1.5%
3.0%
1.4%1.8%
1.4%0.8%
2.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
7.7%
3.2%
8.0%
1.9%
2.8%
4.0% 3.9%
6.2%
7.8%
9.9%
8.0%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
40Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
40
CROATIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2.3%
-0.4%
1.8% 1.8%
3.2%
4.3%
1.7%0.9%
-1.2%
0.4%
-0.5%-1.2%
2.5%
-1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
-2.6%
-1.1%
0.2%
2.4%
2.6%
2.1%
1.1%
2.1%
0.8%
2.3%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%
1.1% 1.2%
3.0%
1.6%
2016 2017 Dec-Apr 15 Apr -Aug 15 Aug-Dec 15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr -Aug 16 Aug-Dec 16 Dec-Apr 17 Apr -Aug 17 Aug-Dec 17
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
41Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
41
ESTONIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-3.3%-3.2%
2.0%
-0.1%-1.5% -0.6%
-2.3%-2.7%
-3.7%
-4.0%
-1.9%
6.2% 6.1%0.7%
1.2%
2.8% 3.4%
4.9%5.7%
7.0% 6.6%
4.7%
2.9% 2.9% 2.6%
1.1% 1.3%
2.8% 2.6%2.9%
3.3%2.6% 2.7%
2017 MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
42Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
42
1.9%
-1.0%
1.7%
3.3%
-0.1%
0.6%2.4%
2.7%
1.8%
2.2%
4.5%
-0.8%
-1.5%
0.1%
-4.7%
0.3%-3.0%
-1.6% -1.4%
-2.4%
0.7%
-0.6%
1.1%
-2.6%
1.8%
-1.3%
0.2%
-2.4%
0.8%1.3%
-0.5%
2.9%
3.8%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
ISRAELFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
43Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
43
KAZAKHSTANFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-3.6%0.3%
-3.8%1.2%
3.4%
-0.5% -1.9%-4.1%
-3.3%
-3.5%-3.1%
9.1%
13.9%
7.6%
14.5%
15.6%
13.2% 11.…8.6%
7.3% 7.3%
5.8%
5.5%
14.2%
3.8%
15.6%
19.0%
12.7%
9.6%
4.6% 4.0% 3.8%2.8%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
44Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
44
LATVIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
0.0% 0.5% 0.9%
1.9%
0.5% 0.3%
-0.3%
0.6% -0.3% 0.5%
1.9%
4.3%3.6%
1.9%0.6%
1.8% 2.5%
4.3%
4.6%4.3% 3.3%
1.6%
4.2% 4.1%
2.8%2.6%
2.3%
2.9%
4.0%
5.1%
4.0%3.8%
3.5%
2017 MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
45Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
45
LITHUANIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-4.6% -3.3%
4.0%
-0.7%
-6.0% -5.0%-7.6%
-4.7%
-2.7%
-2.6%-2.1%
6.9% 6.9%
3.3%
1.2%2.4%
2.2%
4.4%
7.2%7.2% 7.5%
4.7%2.2%
3.6%
7.3%
0.6%
-3.5%-2.8% -3.2%
2.5%
4.6% 4.8%
2.6%
2017 MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
46Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
46
MONTENEGROFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
2.2%
6.8%7.0%
-34.4%-30.6%
-16.8%-13.9% -11.1%
-6.1%-0.3%
2.9% 3.4%-3.5% 2.5%
9.2%
2.0%
0.9%
2.2%2.3%
3.6% 0.9% 2.5% 1.5% 1.2%0.3% -0.4%
-0.1% 2.3%
4.3%
1.9%
2.7%
8.8%
-3.1%
9.0% 9.3%
-30.8% -29.7%
-14.3%-12.5%
-9.9%
-5.8%
-0.7%2.7%
5.7%
0.7%
4.3%
11.9% 10.8%
2016 2017 MAT TY Aug-Dec13
Dec-Apr14
Apr-Aug14
Aug-Dec14
Dec-Apr15
Apr-Aug15
Aug-Dec15
Dec-Apr16
Apr-Aug16
Aug-Dec16
Dec-Apr17
Apr-Aug17
Aug-Dec17
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
47Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
47
5.6%
8.9%
3.1%
15.6%13.1% 10.9%
8.4%5.3%
4.8%2.4% 3.8% 3.6%
1.8%
-0.1%
4.8%
-7.1%-4.1%
0.4%
0.2%
1.1%1.7%
4.6% 5.5%5.1%
7.4%8.9%
7.9% 8.5% 9.1%
11.2%
8.6%
6.4% 6.5% 6.9%
9.4%8.6%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
ROMANIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
48Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
48
RUSSIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.3%
-1.1%
2.0%0.1% -0.3%
0.5%
-2.1% -2.3%0.2%
0.4%
3.0%
1.2%
3.7%
7.1%
2.1%
9.6%
7.4% 7.7%7.1%
6.0% 3.4%1.9%
1.4%1.8%
3.4%
6.0%
4.1%
9.7%
7.1%
8.2%
5.0%
3.7% 3.6%
2.3%
4.4%
3.0%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
49Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
49
SERBIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.3%
-1.4%
1.4%
-0.4%
2.3%
-0.1%
0.6%
-1.2% -2.0%
-2.0%
-0.5%
4.0%3.6%
-1.7%
0.9%
1.7%
4.6%3.7%
3.6%3.4%
3.9%
3.3%
3.7%
2.1%
-0.4%
0.4%
3.9%
4.4%4.2%
2.4%
1.3%
1.9%
2.9%
2016 2017 Dec-Apr 15 Apr-Aug 15 Aug-Dec15 Dec-Apr 16 Apr-Aug 16 Aug-Dec16 Dec-Apr 17 Apr-Aug 17 Aug-Dec17
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
50Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
50
SLOVENIAFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-0.2%0.9% 1.0%
1.6%1.2%
0.0%
-1.5%
-0.2%
1.5%
2.5%
-0.4%
1.6%
-0.7%-0.4%
-1.3%
-0.4%
-0.1%
1.1%
0.4%
2.2%
-0.7%
2.4%
0.4%
1.2%
-0.1%-0.4%
-1.7%
0.9%
1.8%
4.6%
2016 2017 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
51Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
51
UKRAINEFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
3.8% 0.8%7.2%
-6.5%
-0.1%
3.7%
0.1% 0.3%3.6%
6.0% 9.2% 10.5%
10.0%
10.4%
10.3%27.2%
12.6% 9.7%
8.8% 9.7%
9.8%
9.9%10.6%
10.4%13.8%
11.2%
17.4%
20.7%
12.4%13.4%
8.9%10.0%
13.4%
15.9%
19.8%20.8%
2017 MAT YA MAT TY Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18
Volume change Unit value change Nominal growth
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
APPENDIX
53Cop
yri
gh
t ©
20
17
Th
e N
iels
en
Com
pa
ny.
Co
nfid
en
tia
l a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry.
APPENDIX: GLOSSARY
• Nominal value growth:
• Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported product categories
• Unit value growth (≈ ‘price’ change):
• Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product categories
• The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g. litres, kilograms, tonnes, etc)
• The change in average price per unit may result from:
• Price changes of individual products
• Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less promotions, etc.
• Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc.
• Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result of market dynamics.
• The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience ‘cost of living’ in their actual grocery shopping behavior.
• Volume growth:
• Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products
Copyright © 2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.