u.s. grain and oilseed situation and outlook nick piggott north carolina state university south...
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Grain and Oilseed Situation and Outlook
Nick Piggott
North Carolina State University
South Carolina Ag Expo
February 8th, 2001
Rising Stock to Use Ratios for U.S. Crops, 1990-2000
0.0
5.010.0
15.0
20.025.0
30.0
35.040.0
45.0
50.055.0
60.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Year
Sto
ck/U
se R
atio
s (%
)
corn
soybean
wheat
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Bil
lio
ns
of
Do
llar
s
1997 1998 1999 2000F 2001F
Year
U.S. Farm Sector Cash Receipts from Sales
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Cotton (lint and seed)
Tobacco
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Bil
lio
ns
of
Do
lla
rs
1997 1998 1999 2000F 2001F
Year
U.S. Farm Sector Income
Net Farm Income
Total direct payments
Production flexibility
Loan deficiency
Emergency assistance
Loan Deficiency Payments for 1999
$2,107$1,993
$890
$687$534
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
SOYBEANS CORN WHEAT COTTON OTHER
Commodity
Mil
lio
ns
of
Do
llar
s
Acres Planted in the U.S, 1996-2000
79.679.2 79.5 80.2
77.4
62.962.8
65.870.4
75.1
64.2
70.072.0
73.8 74.5
y = -0.1364x + 79.602
y = 2.4385x + 63.586
y = -3.2008x + 77.013
50
60
70
80
90
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Year
Mil
lio
ns
of
Acr
escornwheatsoybeanLinear (corn)Linear (soybean)Linear (wheat)
Southern Region Soybean ProductionSoybean: Area Harvested, Yields, Production by State, 1999 and 2000
January, 2001State
1999 2000 % 1999 2000 % 1999 2000 %(000's acres) (Bushels/Acre) (000's bushels)
Southern RegionAR 3,300 3,200 -3.0 28 26 -7.1 92,400 83,200 -10.0KY 1,160 1,180 1.7 21 39 85.7 24,360 46,020 88.9NC 1,300 1,360 4.6 23 33 43.5 29,900 44,880 50.1MS 1,900 1,580 -16.8 23.5 22 -6.4 44,650 34,760 -22.2TN 1,200 1,150 -4.2 19 25 31.6 22,800 28,750 26.1LA 990 870 -12.1 27 26 -3.7 26,730 22,620 -15.4VA 440 490 11.4 27 39 44.4 11,880 19,110 60.9SC 450 440 -2.2 20 25 25.0 9,000 11,000 22.2TX 380 260 -31.6 27 27 0.0 10,260 7,020 -31.6OK 360 310 -13.9 19 15 -21.1 6,840 4,650 -32.0GA 190 160 -15.8 19 24 26.3 3,610 3,840 6.4AL 200 160 -20.0 16 18 12.5 3,200 2,880 -10.0
Total (Sth) 11,870 11,160 -6.0 22.5 26.6 18.4 285,630 308,730 8.1
Total (US) 72,446 72,718 0.4 36.6 38.1 4.1 2,653,758 2,769,665 4.4
Sth/US % 16.4 15.3 -6.3 61.4 69.8 13.7 10.8 11.1 3.6
Harvested Yield Production
Soybean Supply and Disappearance 1968-2000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,5001
96
8
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
Year
Mil
lio
ns
of
Bu
shel
s
production
crush
exports
ending stocks
Projected Supply/Demand for U.S. Soybeans 2000-01
95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 % change Up/Down
00 v.99
Acres Planted 62.6 64.2 70 72 73.7 74.5 1.1 UpAcres Harvested 61.6 63.3 69.1 70.4 72.4 72.7 0.4 Up Bu./Harvested Acre 35.3 37.6 38.9 38.9 36.6 38.1 4.1 Up
Beginning Stocks 335 183 132 200 348 290 -16.7 DownProduction 2,177 2,381 2,689 2,741 2,654 2,770 4.4 UpImports 4 9 5 3 4 3 -25.0 Down Total Supply 2,516 2,573 2,826 2,944 3,006 3,063 1.9 UpUse: Crushing 1,370 1,436 1,597 1,590 1,579 1,600 1.3 Up Exports 851 882 873 801 973 975 0.2 Up Seed, Feed & Residuals 112 123 156 205 164 168 2.4 Up Total Use 2,333 2,441 2,626 2,596 2,716 2,743 1.0 Up
Ending Stocks 183 132 200 348 290 320 10.3 UpEnding Stocks, % of Use 7.8 5.4 7.6 13.4 10.7 11.7 9.3 UpRegular Loan Rate $4.92 $4.97 $5.26 $5.26 $5.26 $5.26
U.S. Season Average Farm Price, $/ Bu. $6.72 $7.35 $6.47 $4.93 $4.63 $4.50-$5.00
Source: USDA
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANSJanuary 11, 2001
(Million Acres)
(Million Bushels)
Record Soybean Demand in 2000-01• Record crush of 1.6 billion bushels
– 1.8 % in meal use from 99/00 2.7 % domestically from 99/00 1.7 % exports from 99/00
– 2.4 % in oil use from 99/00* 2.4 % domestically from 99/00* 1.7 % exports from 99/00
• Record exports of almost 1 billion bushels– improved exports to China offsetting declines from EU
• Still expecting to add 30 million bushels to carry-out in 00-01.
World Soybean Trade
Major Soybean Importers
0200400600800
10001200
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
Year
Mill
ion
Bu
she
ls
EU
Japan
China
Major Soybean Exporters
0200400600800
10001200
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
Year
Mill
ion
Bu
shel
s
US
Argentina
Brazil
U.S. Soybean Exports by Destination
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
95/96 96/97 97/98 98/98 99/00
Year
Me
tric
To
ns
EU
JAPAN
STH KOREA
CHINA
MEXICO
INDONESIA
U.S. Soybean Price Prospects
• Market currently fairly bearish with latest production
and ending stocks estimate more than expected
• Exports for 00-01 above last year at the same time
Destination 99/00 (year ago) 00/001 Difference
EU 5.324 4.815 -0.509Japan 1.645 1.569 -0.076China 1.768 2.617 0.849Total 13.663 13.996 0.333
U.S. Soybean Exports as of 1/25/01
(MMT)
U.S. Soybean Price Prospects…..
World Soybean Production and Stocks
Country 99/00 00/001 99/00 00/001
U.S. 72.20 75.58 7.90 8.71Argentina 20.70 23.50 5.11 5.38Brazil 32.50 34.50 4.11 4.85
World 157.68 167.18 23.84 23.18
(MMT)
Production Ending Stocks
• How many acres will the U.S. plant? Best guess is another 2.4 mill. acres
75.1 acres @ 38.4 bu./ acre = 2,883 mill. bushel (113 more than 00-01)
• Sth American crop bigger in 00-01 with world ending stocks for 00-01 slightly less than 99/00 (at 23.18 MMT)
U.S. Soybean Price Prospects…..• Futures now trading below harvest low with S-Mar 01 = $4.70
and S-Nov 01 = $4.85
• Forward offers for new crop below loan rate thus no incentive to forward contract (SC new crop bids $4.41)
• Look for concerns of production shortfalls in Sth America and BSE in EU to stimulate a price rally into planting
– limited opportunities that won’t be sustained for long
– need firm price targets in mind and be prepared to act
• Without any production shortfalls in U.S or Sth America: U.S farm price could be in $4.40 range for 2001-02