u.s department of agriculture agricultural outlook forum 2004...

U.S Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Outlook Forum 2004

February 19 & 20, 2004

MEATS, OILSEEDS AND GRAINS, BRAZILIAN PERFORMANCE, TRENDS AND FORECASTS

Gustavo Marin Monaco Agronomist

FNP Consultoria & AgroInformativos Brazil

www.fnp.com.br FNP®

MEATS, OILSEEDS AND MEATS, OILSEEDS AND GRAINS, BRAZILIAN GRAINS, BRAZILIAN

PERFORMANCE, TRENDS AND PERFORMANCE, TRENDS AND FORECASTSFORECASTS

Agronomist : Gustavo Marin MonacoAgronomist : Gustavo Marin MonacoFNP Consultoria & FNP Consultoria & AgroInformativosAgroInformativos

BrazilBrazil


SPEAKERSPEAKEReducational background

•• Graduated atGraduated at ESALQ ESALQ -- ESCOLA SUPERIOR DE ESCOLA SUPERIOR DE AGRICULTURA LUIZ DE QUEIROZ, UNIVERSITY AGRICULTURA LUIZ DE QUEIROZ, UNIVERSITY OF SÃO PAULO OF SÃO PAULO -- BrazilBrazil

•• Specialization in grass management at MASSEY Specialization in grass management at MASSEY UNIVERSITYUNIVERSITY-- NEW ZEALANDNEW ZEALAND

•• MBA in Business Management MBA in Business Management -- IBMEC IBMEC -- BrazilBrazil


SPEAKERSPEAKERprofessional history awards

•• Seven years working as autonomous dairy & beef Seven years working as autonomous dairy & beef consultant in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Mato consultant in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Mato Grosso and Espirito Santo StatesGrosso and Espirito Santo States

•• Two years working for ELANCO Animal Health in Two years working for ELANCO Animal Health in Minas Gerais State, developing mainly dairy Minas Gerais State, developing mainly dairy operationsoperations

•• Two years working as agronomist at CCPRTwo years working as agronomist at CCPR-- Dairy Dairy Farmers Central Cooperative Farmers Central Cooperative -- ITAMBÉ (Minas ITAMBÉ (Minas Gerais State)Gerais State)


BRAZILIAN NUMBERSBRAZILIAN NUMBERS

•• AREA: 8, 5 million KmAREA: 8, 5 million Km22

•• POPULATION:178 millionPOPULATION:178 million

•• TOTAL GDP*: US$ 493 TOTAL GDP*: US$ 493 billionbillion

•• AGRIBUSINESS GDP*: US$ 153AGRIBUSINESS GDP*: US$ 153 billionbillion

Source: IBGE / CNA / CEPEA-USP

* 2003


100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

500.000

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

BRAZILIAN & AGRIBUSINESS GDP (US$ million)

agribusiness GDP (US$ million) brazilian GDP (US$ million)

Source : CNA / CEPEA-USP


5,3

2,4 2,5

3,74,1

3,8

4,3

5,2

6,9

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

5,5

6

6,5

7

num

ber

of u

nits

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02years

HARVESTERS SOLD (thousands of units)

harvesters

Source : Anfavea


AGRICULTURAL EQUIPMENT SOLD (thousands of units)

51

28

22

32 33

28

36

44

52

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02year

num

ber o

f uni

ts

Agricultural equipment

Source :Anfavea


WHEEL TRACTORS SOLD (thousand units)

41

21

16

22

24

21

28

35

40

15 20 25 30 35 40 45

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

wheel tractors

Source: Anfavea


1,3

1,5

1,7

1,9

2,1

2,3

2,5

2,7

cwe.

(mill

ion

tons

)

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02year

BRAZILIAN PORK PRODUCTION cwe. (million tons)

cwe. (million tons)

Source :IBGE / Conab


370

100.370

200.370

300.370

400.370

US$

mill

ion

RUSSIAHONG KONGARGENTINASINGAPORENETHERLANDSURUGUAYALBANYGEORGIABULGARIAUNITED ARAB EMIRATES

CHINAGERMANYOTHERS

countries

BRAZILIAN SWINE EXPORTS BY DESTINATION

(US$ million)

2001 2002 2003 2004 (forecasts)

Source : FNP / SECEX / DECEX


SOME REASONS FOR PORK SOME REASONS FOR PORK PRODUCTION INCREMENT PRODUCTION INCREMENT

IN BRAZILIN BRAZIL

•• Brazilian currency devaluationBrazilian currency devaluation

•• Chinese market rising Chinese market rising as a as a new clientnew client

•• Cheap Land Cheap Land : : possibility possibility of of low price low price grains cultivationgrains cultivation

•• Low domestic consumptionLow domestic consumption


SOME CONSTRAINTS TO PORK SOME CONSTRAINTS TO PORK PRODUCTION GROWTH IN PRODUCTION GROWTH IN

BRAZILBRAZIL•• Shortage Shortage of of money money at at low interest low interest ratesrates

•• HighHigh taxestaxes

•• Unstable economyUnstable economy

•• High interest High interest ratesrates

•• Low domestic consumptionLow domestic consumption


2

2,4

2,8

3,2

3,6

4

billi

on h

eads

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02year

BROILERS SLAUGHTERED (billion heads)

Source :Abef / UBA


POLTRY PRODUCTION (million tons)

3,41

4,05 4,054,46

4,85

5,53

5,98

6,56

7,45 7,49

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

5,5

6

6,5

7

7,5

8

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03year

mill

ion

tons

poltry production

Source: Abef / UBA


560

960

1360

1760

2160

thou

sand

tons

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03year

TOTAL BRAZILIAN POLTRY EXPORTS (thousand tons)

poltry exports

Source : FNP / SECEX / DECEX


94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

1.709

1.3931.334

829893

753

876833

634588

580

780

980

1180

1380

1580

1780

US$

mill

ion

year

POLTRY EXPORTS REVENUE (US$ million)

Source : SECEX / FNP


SOME REASONS FOR POULTRY SOME REASONS FOR POULTRY PRODUCTION INCREMENTPRODUCTION INCREMENT

•• Russia Russia as as big brazilian chickenbig brazilian chicken consumer consumer

•• EUEU increasing increasing demand for demand for brazilian brazilian chickenchicken

•• Low production costs when compared Low production costs when compared to to other countriesother countries

•• AvianAvian Influenza inInfluenza in AsiaAsia


CONSTRAINTS TO POULTRY CONSTRAINTS TO POULTRY PRODUCTION GROWTH IN PRODUCTION GROWTH IN

BRAZILBRAZIL

•• Weather disturbsWeather disturbs,, like severe like severe drought decreasing the corn drought decreasing the corn productionproduction..

•• IncrementIncrement inin production costsproduction costs,, dueduetoto grains pricegrains price


Source : Embrapa


150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

mill

ion

head

s

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 07 12year

LIVESTOCK INCREMENT (million heads)

Source: FNP


32 37 42 47 52 57million heads

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

07

12

year

BEEF SLAUGHTERING (million heads)

Source : FNP


20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

%

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 07 12year

SLAUGHTER RATE (%)

Source : FNP


9900

0102

0307 12

4.500

2.850

1.037776

739503

444

440

940

1.440

1.940

2.440

2.940

3.440

3.940

4.440

4.940

(US$

mill

ion)

year

BEEF EXPORTS REVENUE (US$ million)

Source: SECEX / DECEX / FNP


BEEF, DOMESTIC & PER CAPTA CONSUMPTION (Retrospectives & Forecasts)

6.100

6.150

6.200

6.250

6.300

6.350

6.400

6.450

6.500

6.550

6.600

97 02 07 12year

dom

estic

dem

and

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

per c

apta

con

sum

ptio

n

domestic consumption-cwe. (thousand tons) per capta consumption (Kg / year)

Source : FNP / CONAB


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500cw

e. (t

hous

and

tons

)

97 02 07 12year

BEEF EXPORTS RETROSPECTIVE & FORECAST

Exportations Fresh Meat Processed Meat

Source : FNP Estimates & Forecasts


Source : Embrapa


79

56

190

7860

195

7663

199

7566

203

7569

209

7473

215

7376

219

7280

225

7184

231

7089

238

0

50

100

150

200

250

mill

ion

tons

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

years 2003-2012

WORLD SOYBEAN PRODUCTION (million tons)

USA ARGENTINA BRAZIL CHINA EUROPE JAPAN WORLD

Source : USDA / FNP


WORLD SOYBEAN CONSUMPTION (million tons)

49 49 49 48 48 48 48 48 48 48

33 35 37 38 40 42 45 47 49 52

169 175 182 186 194 200 210 218 227 236

1

10

100

1000

03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13year

mill

ion

tons

USA ARGENTINA BRAZIL CHINA EUROPE JAPAN WORLD

Source : USDA / FNP


MAIN REASON FOR INCREMENT IN MAIN REASON FOR INCREMENT IN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AND

CONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTION

•• Expressive Expressive demand growth demand growth by the main by the main soybean soybean and and its byproducts consumers its byproducts consumers around the worldaround the world

•• EntryEntry of of new countries new countries in in the world market the world market and and the stablishmentthe stablishment of comercial of comercial relationship among them relationship among them

•• Increasing biofuel Increasing biofuel demand demand around the worldaround the world


Source : Embrapa


03/0

4

05/0

6

07/0

8

09/1

0

11/1

2

USA CH

INA

BR

AZIL

ARG

ENTI

NA

EUR

OPE

OTH

ERS

WO

RLD

18118218318418518618718818

mill

ion

tons

year

s

WORLD CORN PRODUCTION (million tons)

Source : USDA / FNP


WORLD CORN EXPORTS (million tons)

countries 02/03 market share 12/13 market share

USA 41 53% 43 48%

CHINA 14 18% 0 0%

BRAZIL 4 5% 18 20%

ARGENTINA 12 16% 20 22%

OTHERS 6 8% 9 10%WORLD 77 90

Source: USDA / FNP


SOME REASONS FOR BRAZILIAN SOME REASONS FOR BRAZILIAN CORN PRODUCTION INCREMENTCORN PRODUCTION INCREMENT

•• IncreasingIncreasing inin HumanHuman and Animaland Animalconsumption around the worldconsumption around the world

•• Biofuel productionBiofuel production, USA, USA is supposedis supposedtoto increase itsincrease its domestic domestic consumptionconsumption,, that creates an that creates an opportunityopportunity toto countries likecountries like Brazil toBrazil toexport cornexport corn


THANK YOU, VERY MUCHTHANK YOU, VERY MUCH

FURTHER CONTACTS:FURTHER CONTACTS:

GUSTAVO MARIN MONACOGUSTAVO MARIN MONACOphonephone:: (55 11) 3339 1414(55 11) 3339 1414ee--mailmail:: gustavogustavo..monacomonaco@@fnpfnp.com.br.com.br

BRAZILBRAZIL


Source : Embrapa


483,9537,1

410

305,7

411

520,1

700,3

938,8

766,2

850,8

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

thou

sand

tons

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03year

COTTON PRODUCTION (thousand tons)

cotton production

Source : conab / gepav / geame


WORLD COTTON PRODUCTIONWORLD COTTON PRODUCTION%

CHINA 30INDIA 13,8PAQUISTAN 9,5USA 6,8TURQUEY 6,5BRAZIL 3,6


WORLD COTTON PRODUCTIONWORLD COTTON PRODUCTION

•• 19931993--2003 :2003 : Cotton production has Cotton production has risenrisen 22%22%

•• ChinaChina main producermain producer inin the worldthe world, 57 , 57 %% incrementincrement inin the same periodthe same period,,responsibleresponsible for 30% offor 30% of the world the world productionproduction


BRAZILIAN COTTON BRAZILIAN COTTON PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

•• 19931993--2003: Brazil2003: Brazil has increased its has increased its production aroundproduction around 90%,90%, reachingreaching850,000 tons850,000 tons


BRAZILIAN COTTON EXPORTSBRAZILIAN COTTON EXPORTS

•• 2001 : US$ 1,32001 : US$ 1,3 BillionBillion

•• 2003 : US$ 1,472003 : US$ 1,47 BillionBillion

•• 2007* : US$ 4 2007* : US$ 4 BillionBillion* FNP Forecasts


Source: www.viaverde.agr.br


Source : www.viaverde.agr.br


Source :www.viaverde.agr.br

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