u.s. daily market forecasting and trading report an

ROBERT D. MCHUGH, JR., Ph.D.

U.S. Daily Market Forecasting and Trading Report

An Educational Publication of Main Line Investors, Inc.

P.O. Box 127 Issue No. 4219 Email Address:

BART, PA 17503 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 [email protected]

KEY TRENDFINDER INDICATORS FOR THURSDAY, OCTOBER 14th, 2021

For Blue Chip Stock Indices ( Dow Industrials and S&P 500):

Short-term Trend: Purchasing Power Indicator on a Buy

Intermediate-term Trend: Secondary Trend Indicator on a Buy

Long Term Trend: Primary Trend Indicator on a Buy

Note: The above Indicators are the most important and reliable trend identifiers for Blue Chip Stocks in this Re-

port. All other commentary and analysis is supplementary, early warning, or over-the-horizon risk study. This

Report is for educational purposes only. Dr. McHugh and Main Line Investors, Inc. are not acting as the read-er’s investment Advisor. We suggest you consult with your financial advisor before investing or trading.

Current Short-term Psychological Sentiment of the U.S. Stock Market

Note: Derived from the Combination of three short-term Indicators, the Purchasing Power Indicator Buy,

the 30 Day Stochastic Buy, and the 14 Day Stochastic Buy (See pages 3 and 13)

Positive

Inspiration Corner: See Page 59-62 Psalm 91 God’s Protection against Pestilence.

Today’s Market Comments

Our Executive Summary Market Comments appear on pages 7 through 10.

“Let not your heart be troubled; believe in God, believe also in Me. In My Father’s house are

many mansions; if that were not so, I would have told you, because I am going there to pre-

pare a place for you. And if I go and prepare a place for you, I am coming again and will take

you to Myself, so that where I am, there you also will be. And you know the way where I am

going.” Thomas said to Him, “Lord, we do not know where You are going; how do we know

the way?” Jesus said to him, “I am the way, and the truth, and the life; no one comes to the

Father except through Me.”

John 14:1-6

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Table of Contents

Page 1 Bottom Line From our Key Trend-finder Indicators

Page 2-4 Subscription Services and Pricing / Special Deals

Summary of Index Daily Closings / Table of Contents

Page 6- Blue Chip Stock Trends Summary (Signals, Age of Trend, Interpretation)

Page 7– Primary Trend Indicator (Long-term Trend Time Horizon)

Page 7-10 Today’s Market Comments

Page 11- Purchasing Power Indicator Chart and Comments

Page 12– Demand Power / Supply Pressure Chart and Comments

Page 13– Secondary Trend Indicator Chart and Comments

Page 14- Key Trend Indicator Statistical Levels for Today and the Past Week

Page 15- Statistics for Today (NYSE) and key indicator charts / Hindenburg Omen Status

Page 16- Signal Performance Summary (All Markets Signals)

Page 17-21 Technology Trends (NASDAQ 100)

Page 22-24- Small Caps

Page 25-28 Precious Metals and Mining Stocks Trends

Page 29–31 Trader’s Corner and Past Trading Performance Statistics

Page 32 through 64 Elliot Wave and Other Mapping and Analytical Charts

Page 69-74 Glossary of Terms (Educational Information on how to use this Report)

Page 75 Dr. McHugh’s Book, The Coming Economic Ice Age

Page 65-68 Inspiration Corner

Page 76-77 Disclaimer, ETF Symbols, Elliott Wave Notation Key

Page 5


SUMMARY OF INDEX DAILY CLOSINGS FOR WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 13th, 2021

NASDAQ NASDAQ Russell 30 Yr Treas

Date DJIA Transports S&P COMPQ 100 2000 Bonds

Oct 8 34746.25 14640.46 4391.34 14579.54 14820.75 2233.09 156^24

Oct 11 34496.06 14588.96 4361.19 14486.20 14713.73 2220.64 156^15

Oct 12 34378.34 14662.11 4350.65 14465.92 14662.11 2234.27 157^16

Oct 13 34377.81 14710.53 4363.80 14571.63 14774.60 2241.97 158^18

Oct 14 34912.56 14943.39 4438.26 14823.43 15052.42 2274.18 159^02

Key Economic Statistics

Date VIX U.S. $ Euro CRB Gold Silver HUI Crude Oil

10/01/21 21.15 94.05 115.96 230.38 1758.4 22.54 228.28 75.88

10/08/21 18.77 94.08 115.79 235.42 1757.4 22.70 240.49 79.35

10/14/21 16.86 93.96 115.96 238.13 1797.9 23.48 257.79 81.31

Blue Chip Stock Trends Signals

(For the Dow Industrials, NYSE, S&P 500)

Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 Week to 1 Month — Hourly and Daily Traders):

Young, More Trend Likely,

Maturing, More Trend Possible

or Old) or Approaching End)

Buy or Sell Date of S&P 500 Age of Signal’s Status

Indicator Name Signal Signal @ Signal Signal Interpretation

Purchasing Power

Indicator: Buy 10/07/21 4,399.76 Maturing More Trend Possible

30 Day Stochastic


14 Day Stochastic

Indicator: Buy 10/14/21 4,438.26 Young More Trend Likely

Note: We Like to Consider the above 3 Indicators together to confirm a new trend. If all three are in agreement,

that confirms a new trend. If any one has a different signal than the others, that suggests a sideways move is occurring,

or a trend turn is in process.

Medium-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 to 3 Months — Daily Traders):

(Young, (More Trend Likely,


Neutral, or Old) or Approaching End)



Demand Power/ Buy 10/14/21 4,438.26 Young More Trend Likely

Supply Pressure:

Intermediate-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 to 12 Months — Weekly Traders):






Secondary Trend Buy 09/22/21 4,395.64 Maturing More Trend Possible

Indicator:


Today’s Market Comments

Stocks rose sharply Thursday, October 14th

, on average volume. The nature of the oscillat-

ing, overlapping waves the past two weeks, which has produced an essentially sideways

move for stocks, is not impulsive, but corrective, which suggests more downside is ap-

proaching. The 50-day moving average has been particularly difficult resistance for the In-

dustrials as they have tried four times in the past two weeks to rise decisively above that lev-

el, and failed all four times, including Thursday’s attempt. In each instance, the Industrials

have risen a hair above that level, then promptly fell. Most of the buying Thursday came from

shorts, those most pessimistic about the future of the stock market, forced to cover posi-

tions.

As mentioned before, Bear market rallies tend to be dramatic, powerful, and short-lived.

They serve the purpose of taking Bear’s out of the action, and moving Bulls back in, just be-

fore the market declines. These rallies are designed by the Bear so everyone loses, not just

Bulls. A set up. We shall see if this is the case over the coming week.

It remains unclear if stocks have completed their corrective waves {2} up (Industrials and

NASDAQ 100) and 2-up (S&P 500), with Thursday’s rise, or not. The major averages remain

below their August 16th

, September 2nd

, and September 7th

highs by sufficient amounts to

keep the short-term Bear market view in place.


Blue Chip Stock Trends Signals

(For the Dow Industrials, NYSE, S&P 500)

Long-term Horizon (Over the Next 6 Months to 2 Years — Monthly Traders):






Primary Trend


Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals

are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk

should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to

be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis (and background indicator analysis) is important, and the

longer-term trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends.

Today’s Market Comments (continued)

The clearest wave mapping, since these tops, is appearing in the NASDAQ 100 (see updated

chart on page 44). It is a simple and clear pair of waves one down and two up. Almost text-

book, which means waves three down are approaching. See updated charts on pages 36 and

42 for the Industrials and S&P 500, which show more complex mappings, overlapping waves

for sure, and complex.

If the Elliott Wave mappings, the price chart patterns, and the various indicators we have

identified, such as Bearish divergences, two Hindenburg Omens, and the close proximity of

a new Dow Theory Bear Market signal, are correct, it is quite possible that over the coming

weeks, the U.S. stock market will be starting a plunge / mini-crash that could last several

weeks. No guarantees, but in our view, a fairly high probability. If so, this will be the first of

many stock market plunges during this Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} Bear market that

is in its infancy.

In the chart on page 46, we see that the small cap Russell 2000’s ETF IWM has formed a Dia-

mond top pattern that looks very close to completion. This is a rare pattern, and was evident

at the 2000 major stock market top.

The stock market sits on two concurrent “official” Hindenburg Omens, one from August

2021, the other from October 4th

. This is a very dangerous development for the stock mar-

ket. The August H.O. has a shelf life of December 2021, and the October 4th

H.O. is warning

of a potential stock market crash between now and February 4th

, 2022. It is unusual to have

two on at the same time, but when this happens, bad things usually happen. The stock mar-

ket crash of March 2020 came with two official H.O.’s on the clock at the same time. All stock

market crashes in the past 35 years occurred with one or more on the clock. None happened

without one on the clock.

The Dow Industrials and Transportation Index is very close to generating a Dow Theory Pri-

mary trend Bear market signal. These signals have a very good track record, not perfect, but

are rare, and need to be taken seriously as a cautionary warning. In the charts on pages 34

and 35 we show that if the Industrials decline below their June lows, their Secondary trend

lows, below 33,290, the Dow Theory non-confirmation will become a Primary Trend Bear

Market signal. The last time we got one of these was March 9th

, 2020, as the stock market

crash was starting. We include some theory about this potential signal and several charts to

explain what is going on.



There were several changes to our key stock market indicators from Thursday’s price action.

The NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal. The small cap Russell

2000 Purchasing Power Indicator moved to a Buy. The Blue Chip three-component short-

term key trend-finder indicator remains on a Neutral signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal September 22nd. It

rose 6 points Thursday (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 15. It will have to fall below

negative - 5 for a new Sell signal.

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Neutral signal October 7th, 2021 and

remain there Thursday, October 14th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component trig-

gered a Buy signal Thursday, October 7th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a

Sell on October 12th, 2021, and the 30-Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on Septem-

ber 23rd, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months'

time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict

with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Demand Power rose 17 to 441 Thursday, while Supply Pressure fell 10 to 423, telling us

Thursday's Blue Chip rise was powerful, but nearly half the buying came from shorts cover-

ing. This DP/SP Indicator is on a Buy Signal from October 14th.

Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators remain on a Buy signal Thursday. Gold rose 3.2, Silver

rose 0.31, and Mining stocks rose 4.63 Thursday.

If we look at the updated chart on page 51, we see the short-term downtrend channel in GLD,

the ETF tracking Gold, was broken to the upside, a potential bullish development. If we look

at the updated chart on page 50, we see the Handle portion of Gold’s Cup and Handle, has

not yet seen an upside breakout. Gold would have to rise above 1,975 for that bullish price

action. In the updated chart on page 54, we see Mining stocks broke out higher, out of the

declining Bullish Wedge it has been inside since June 2021. This is potentially bullish. The

concern is, if the general stock market declines, Mining stocks could initially track it lower.

However, the inflation data is bullish for Gold, Silver and Mining stocks, a mitigating factor

to minimize any decline in Miners, which are vulnerable as operating companies. Metals may

not decline with stocks, or if they do, not to the extent stocks fall.



Gold started a Bullish Cup and Handle pattern in 2011. The Cup portion completed a year

ago, and since then Gold has been declining inside the handle portion of the pattern, which

is the concluding piece.

Once the “handle” bottoms, in the midst of all the drama that is coming, Gold should be

headed sharply higher over the coming months and years. It could reach 3,000 as it rises,

perhaps quite a bit higher than that over time, with corrective declines interspersed along

the way.

The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Buy signal October 7th, as the HUI 30 Day Sto-

chastic triggered a Buy signal October 7th, 2021, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator

triggered a Buy on October 7th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal,

and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Pow-

er / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Buy signal October 14th. On Thursday, October

14th, Demand Power Rose 6 to 388 while Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 376, telling us Thursday's

HUI rise was moderate.



Our Purchasing Power Indicator

(The Short-term Market Trend, typically from 1 to 4 weeks)

Our Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a short-term Buy Signal Thursday, October

7th, 2021, and remains there October 14th. It rose to positive + 23.06 on October

14th, and needs to fall below positive + 17.06 for a new Sell. The S&P plunged 384

points after the February 2020 Sell signal.

After a previous Sell signal, the S&P 500 plunged 158 points. After a previous Buy

signal, the S&P 500 rose 72 points. After a previous Buy signal the S&P 500 rose 150

points. After a previous Sell signal, the S&P 500 lost 96 points.

After the October 4th, 2018 Sell signal, the S&P 500 fell 173 points, and the Industri-

als fell 1,575 points. After the January 30th, 2018 Sell signal, the Industrials plunged

2,298 points. After the Buy signal on August 30th, 2017, the Industrials rose 4,723

points and the S&P 500 rose 421 points! After the Buy signal on January 3rd, 2017,

the Industrials rose 1,234 points and the S&P 500 rose 138 points.

For information on how to use this indicator, go to the Glossary at the end of this report.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

3500

3800

4100

4400

7/15/21 8/15/21 9/15/21 10/15/21

S&P/DJIA Purchasing Power Indicator PPI is a Short-term Momentum Measure of Purchasing Power, Generating Buy and Sell

Signals When Changes Suggest Sustainable Multi-Week Moves are Likely.

October 14th, 2021's PPI is + 23.06, Needs to fall below + 17.06 for a new Sell

S&P 500

PPI

The PPI Issued a "Buy" Signal on October 7th, 2021.

copyright © 2021 Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

Sell Signal

Buy Signal

PPI


Our Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator

(The Short/Medium-term Time Horizon Trend,

typically from 1 to 3 Months)

Our Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator generated a Buy Signal October 14th,

2021, and remains there October 14th, 2021.

There is a Huge Bearish divergence developing between the S&P 500 and its Demand

Power measure, warning a major top and significant decline is approaching.

In addition to Buy and Sell signals, another feature from this indicator is we can get

an early warning of a trend reversal when we see the Demand Power and Supply Pres-

sure Indicators start to converge measurably.


380.0

430.0

480.0

530.0

3200

3500

3800

4100

4400

7/15/21 8/15/21 9/15/21 10/15/21

S&P 500 vs: Demand Power & Supply Pressure July 2021 to October 2021

S&P 500

When Demand Power Crosses 10 Pts above the Supply Pressure Line, we get a Buy Signal.

When Supply Pressure rises 10 Points above Demand Power, we get a Sell Signal.Exit signals occur when DP or SP lines return to intersection after an entry signal.

S&P 500

Supply Pressure

Demand Power


We received a Buy Signal October 14th, 2021

DemandPower/Supply

Pressure

SellSignal

9.10.21

BearishDivergence

BuySignal

8.11.21

SellSignal

8.18.21

BuySignal

8.27.21


Our Secondary Trend Indicator

(The Intermediate-term Time Horizon Market Trend,

typically from 3 to 12 Months)

Our Secondary Trend Indicator generated an Intermediate term Buy Signal Sep-

tember 22nd, 2021. After a recent Buy on June 24th, 2021, the S&P 500 rose 95

points. After a recent Buy on March 26th, 2021, the S&P 500 rose 280 points

through June 15th, 2021. After a previous Buy Signal that occurred May 21st,

2020, the Industrials rose over 7,000 points.

There is a Bearish divergence between the S&P 500 (Rising) and the Sec-

ondary Trend Indicator (Falling), warning a strong decline is approaching.

Check out our charts on pages 32 through 35 for the history of this Indica-

tor’s Buy and Sell signals since 2018.


-60

-30

0

30

60

90

2600

2900

3200

3500

3800

4100

4400

5/15/21 6/15/21 7/15/21 8/15/21 9/15/21 10/15/21

Secondary Trend Indicator TM

Very simply, when the STI turns above positive +5, it means odds favora multi-week rising trend. When the STI turns below negative -5, the odds

favor a multi-week declining trend.

October 14th, 2021's STI is + 15 on a Buy Signal from 9.22.21.

S&P 500

STI


Buy SignalSell Signal The S&P 500 is Overbought around positive

+ 30 and oversold around -30.

S&P STI

Overbought

Oversold

Bearish Divergence

SellSignal

7.16.21

BuySignal

3.26.21

SellSignal

6.18.21

BuySignal

6.24.21Buy

Signal8.11.21

SellSignal

8.18.21

BuySignal

8.24.21

Sell'Signal9.20.21

BuySignal

9.22.21

SUMMARY OF TODAY’S & PAST WEEK’S TRADING INDICATOR STATISTICS

Blue Chips S&P 500 / DJIA / NYSE

Purchasing

Date Power Indicator Interpretation

Oct 7 Up 5 to + 16.35

Oct 8 Down 1 to + 15.71

Oct 11 Down 2 to + 13.29

Oct 12 Down 1 to + 12.65

Oct 13 Up 1 to + 13.93

Oct 14 Up 9 to + 23.06

30 Day Stochastic 14 Day Stochastic

Date Fast Slow Fast Slow Interpretation

Oct 7 40.00 32.67 80.00 43.33

Oct 8 36.67 33.33 73.33 51.67

Oct 11 33.33 34.67 53.33 55.00

Oct 12 33.33 35.33 36.67 56.11

Oct 13 36.67 36.00 33.33 55.56

Oct 14 53.33 38.67 66.67 57.22

Demand Supply

Date Power Pressure Interpretation

Oct 7 Up 10 to 428 Down 9 to 439

Oct 8 Down 2 to 426 Down 1 to 438

Oct 11 Down 5 to 421 Up 3 to 441

Oct 12 Flat 0 at 421 Down 3 to 438

Oct 13 Up 3 to 424 Down 5 to 433

Oct 14 Up 17 to 441 Down 10 to 423

Secondary Interpretation

Date Trend Indicator

Oct 7 Up 6 to + 11

Oct 8 Down 2 to + 9

Oct 11 Down 5 to + 4

Oct 12 Down 1 to + 3

Oct 13 Up 6 to + 9

Oct 14 Up 6 to + 15


The PPI must rise more than 6 points above its recent low to

trigger a new buy signal, and must fall more than 6 points below

it recent high to trigger a new sell signal.

The PPI Must fall below positive + 17.06 for a new Sell Signal.

The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below

the Slow for a new “sell,” or the Fast has to rise

more than 10 points above the Slow for a new buy.

The Demand Power Indicator Needs to Rise more

than 10 points above the Supply Pressure Indicator

for a new buy signal, or the Supply Pressure

Indicator must rise more than 10 points above the

Demand Power Indicator for a new Sell Signal.

Crossovers less than 10 points are Neutral Signals.

Above positive + 5 is Bullish, a Buy signal. Below negative –5 is

Bearish, a Sell signal. While a move above zero is a good indication

of a coming rising trend, and below zero is a good indication of a

coming declining trend, for best trading results, it is better to wait for

this indicator to move above positive + 5 or below negative –5. The

closer it moves toward zero, the greater the risk of a coming trend

turn. Readings near positive + 30 show overbought market conditions

And near negative –30 indicate an oversold market condition.

Blue Chip Stock Background Stock Trend Indicators

For the Dow Industrials, NYSE, S&P 500

(Used to Evaluate the Age of Current Trends)

McClellan Oscillator

(+300 Extreme Overbought/-300 Extreme Oversold)

10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator


Plunge Protection Team Indicator *

A rise above positive + 20.0 or a drop below negative –16.0 triggers a new “buy” signal. On the other hand, declines

can (don’t have to) occur when this reading falls within the range of negative –16.00 to positive + 20.00.

Next Phi Mate Turn Date December 6th, 2021 +/- a few days

Next Bradley Model Turn Date November 6th, 2021 +/- a few days


Key NYSE Internal Strength Statistics for Thursday, October 14th:

Volume as % 10 Day Average

Points % Up

Points % Down

New 52 Week Highs

New 52 Week Lows

Advancing Issues

Declining Issues

Advancing Issues %

Declining Issues %

Volume % Up

Volume % Down

Closing Trin

10 Day Avg. Trin

Today

+ 157.0

+ 450.5

- 0.2

Yesterday

+ 77.9

+ 178.1

+ 2.5

Today

96%

98

2%

156

23

2554

760

77%

23%

97%

3%

0.95

0.91

Yesterday

94%

73

27%

71

35

2023

1239

62%

38%

58%

42%

1.12

0.95


Summary of McHugh’s Proprietary Index Key Trend-finder Buy/Sell Signals

Index Term Signal Date Current Signal

DJIA Purchasing Power Indic DJIA Short Buy October 7th, 2021

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic DJIA Short Sell October 12th, 2021

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic DJIA Short Buy September 23rd, 2021

Demand Power /Supply Pressure S&P Short Buy October 14th, 2021

NYSE 10 Day Adv/Decline Indic S&P Short Buy October 5th, 2021

Secondary Trend Indicator DJIA Intermediate Buy September 22nd, 2021

NDX Purchase Power Indic NASDAQ 100 Short Buy October 14th, 2021

NDX 14 Day Stochastic NASDAQ 100 Short Buy October 7th, 2021

NDX 30 Day Stochastic NASDAQ 100 Short Buy October 14th, 2021

NDX 10 Day Adv/Decline Indic NDX Short Buy October 5th, 2021

Demand Power /Supply Pressure NDX Short Neutral October 14th, 2021

RUT Purchasing Power Indic RUT Short Buy October 14th, 2021

RUT 10 Day Adv/Decline Indic RUT Short Buy October 14th, 2021

HUI Purchasing Power Indic HUI Short Buy October 7th, 2021

HUI 30 Day Stochastic HUI Short Buy October 7th, 2021

HUI Purchasing Power Indic $GOLD Short Buy October 7th, 2021

HUI 30 Day Stochastic $GOLD Short Buy October 7th, 2021

HUI Demand Power /Supply Pressure HUI Short Buy October 14th, 2021

Plunge Protection Team Indic DJIA Short OFF Apr 27th, 2020

Primary Trend Indicator S&P 500 Long Buy November 30th, 2020

“Jesus said to them, “I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me

shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.

For I have come down from heaven,

For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds

the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;

and I Myself will raise him up on the last day.”

John 6: 35, 38, 40


Technology Stock Trends Signals

(For the NASDAQ 100)

Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 Week to 1 Month — Hourly and Daily Traders):

(Sideways (Sideways




Buy or Sell Date of NDX Age of Signal’s Status


NDX Purchasing Power


30 Day Stochastic


14 Day Stochastic


Note: We Like to Consider the above 3 Indicators together to confirm a new trend. If all three are in agreement, that con-firms a new trend. If any one has a different signal than the others, that suggests a sideways move is occurring, or a trend turn is in process.

Medium-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 to 3 Months — Daily Traders):

(Trend Turning) (Trend Turning)



Neutral, or Old) or Approaching End)

Buy or Sell Date of NDX Age of Signal’s Status


Demand Power/ Neutral 10/14/21 15,052.42 (Trend Turning) (Trend Turning)

Supply Pressure

Key NASDAQ 100 Internal Strength Statistics for Thursday, October 14th:

Volume as % 10 Day Avg.

Points % Up

Points % Down

Advancing Issues %

Declining Issues %

Volume % Up

Volume % Down

Today

105%

99%

1%

95%

5%

97%

3%

Yesterday

93%

91%

9%

75%

25%

69%

31%

The NDX PPI Needs to Fall Below Positive + 295.55 for a New Sell Signal


NASDAQ 100 Key Trendfinder Indicator Statistics

Demand Supply Purchasing 30 Day Stochastic 14 Day Stochastic

Date Power Pressure Power Indicator Fast Slow Fast Slow

Oct 7 Up 9 to 451 Down 7 to 460 Up 4 to + 293.30 30.77 23.33 55.13 34.87

Oct 8 Down 5 to 446 Up 1 to 461 Down 2 to + 291.71 30.77 24.87 44.87 37.95

Oct 11 Down 6 to 440 Up 4 to 465 Down 3 to + 288.99 32.05 27.95 35.90 40.00

Oct 12 Down 3 to 437 Flat 0 at 465 Down 2 to + 287.27 29.49 28.97 30.77 40.00



Today Yesterday

NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator

(+30 Extreme Overbought/-30 Extreme Oversold) + 13.8 + 0.2

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators moved to a Buy signal Thurs-

day, October 14th, 2021, and remain there October 14th, 2022. The NDX Pur-

chasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on October 14th, 2021, the NDX 14

Day Stochastic triggered a Buy on October 7th, and the 30 Day Stochastic trig-

gered a Buy signal on October 14th, 2021. When all three component indicators

are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they dif-

fer, it is a sideways signal.

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Neutral signal

Thursday, October 14th, and remains there October 14th. On Thursday, October

14th, Demand Power Rose 15 to 458, while Supply Pressure Fell 9 to 450, telling us

Thursday’s rise was powerful, with half the buying coming from shorts, those most

pessimistic about the markets, forced to cover positions and buy.

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal

October 14th, 2021, and needs to fall below negative - 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose

to positive + 13.8 on Thursday, October 14th.

The NDX PPI Needs to Fall Below Positive + 295.55 for a New Sell Signal


S&P 500 versus the NYSE 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator

(Bullish or Bearish Divergences)

The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal on

October 5th, 2021.

There is a large Bearish Divergence between the S&P 500 and the 10 day average

NYSE Advance / Decline Line Indicator, warning a significant declining trend is approaching.

-1100

-600

-100

400

900

1400

1900

2400

3250

3450

3650

3850

4050

4250

4450

6/8/21 7/8/21 8/8/21 9/8/21 10/8/21

NYSE 10 Day Moving Average Advance/Decline Line vs. the S&P 500

Bullish Divergence Bearish Divergence

Oftentimes Trend Reversals are Forewarned By Bullish and Bearish DivergencesBetween the NYSE 10 Day MA Adv/Dec Line and the Prices of of Equities.

S&P 500

NYSEA/D

S&P 500

A/D

Bearish Divergence

BuySignal7.1.21

SellSignal

7.15.21

BuySignal

7.20.21

SellSignal

8.17.21

BuySignal

8.31.21

SellSignal

9.14.21

BuySignal

10.5.21


NASDAQ 100 versus its 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator


The NASDAQ 100 triggered an A/D Sell signal on September 29th, 2021. There is a Bearish

Divergence between the NDX and the 10 day average Advance/Decline Indicator giving an

early heads up of a coming decline. That decline started September 7th.

Previously, it triggered a Buy signal on June 7th, 2019 and Techs rose sharply afterwards.

(Sell signals occur when the NDX 10 day average A/D Indicator falls below negative - 5; Buy

signals occur when it rises above positive + 5).

The NASDAQ 100 declined sharply from a large Bearish divergence with its 10 day average

Advance/Decline Line Indicator in March and April, which warned that a decline was ap-

proaching. That decline was the May decline. The NASDAQ 100 10 day average Advance/

Decline Line Indicator lost 490 points after it triggered a Sell signal on May 8th. Previous to

this, the NASDAQ 100 rose sharply after the Buy signal on March 13th and before that the

January 7th Buy signal .

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

7/8/21 8/8/21 9/8/21 10/8/21

NASDAQ 100 10 Day Moving Average Advance/Decline Line vs. the NASDAQ 100

Bullish Divergence

Bearish Divergence

Oftentimes Trend Reversals are Forewarned By Bullish and Bearish DivergencesBetween the $NDX 10 Day MA Adv/Dec Line and the Prices of $NDX Equities.

NASDAQ 100

$NDXA/D

NASDAQ

A/D Line

copyright (c) 2021 Robert McHugh, Ph.D.

BuySignal

8.23.21

SellSignal

7.16.21

BuySignal

7.28.21

BearishDivergence

SellSignal

8.18.21

BuySignal

9.24.21

SellSignal

9.29.21


NASDAQ 100 Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator

(With Bullish or Bearish Divergences)

The NASDAQ 100 triggered a Sell Signal on September 28th, 2021 in its Demand Power /

Supply Pressure Indicator.

A Bearish Divergence between the NASDAQ 100 and its Demand Power measure is in place,

warning of a coming decline, which may be starting.

Previous to this, the NASDAQ 100 declined sharply from a large Bearish divergence with its

Demand Power measure formed in March and April, which warned that a decline was ap-

proaching. That was the May 2019 decline. The NASDAQ 100 fell sharply after its Demand

Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered an Enter Short signal on May 7th.

380

430

480

530

580

630

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

8/8/21 9/8/21 10/8/21

NASDAQ 100 vs: Demand Power & Supply Pressure August 2021 to October 2021

NASDAQ 100

NDX

DemandPower/Supply

Pressure

Supply Pressure

Demand Power


When Demand Power Crosses above the Supply Pressure Line by 10 points, we get aBuy Signal. When Supply Pressure rises above Demand Power by 10 points, we get a Sell Signal. Exit Signals occur when DP or SP lines return to intersecttion after an entry signal.

We got an Sell Signal 9/28/21

BuySignal

7.21.21 EnterLong

8.24.21

SellSignal

8.17.21

SellSignal

9.20.21

BuySignal

9.24.21

SellSignal

9.28.21

Key Russell 2000 Internal Strength Statistics for Thursday, October 14th, 2021:


Advancing Issues

Declining Issues

Advancing Issues %

Declining Issues %

Volume % Up

Volume % Down

10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator



Small Cap Stock Trends Signals

(For the RUSSELL 2000)

Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 2 Weeks — Hourly and Daily Traders):

(Young, (More Trend Likely)



Buy or Sell Date of RUT Age of Signal’s Status


RUT Purchasing Power

Indicator: Buy 10/14/21 2274.18 Young More Trend Likely

Purchasing

Date Power Indicator

Oct 8 Down 2 to + 200.31

Oct 11 Down 1 to + 199.29

Oct 12 Up 1 to + 200.58

Oct 13 Up 1 to + 201.14

Oct 14 Up 1 to + 202.28

The RUT PPI Needs to Fall Below + 196.28 for a New Sell

Today

102%

1479

446

77%

23%

66%

34%

+ 217.0

Yesterday

93%

986

934

52%

48%

67%

33%

+ 46.1


Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator

The RUT Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy signal Thursday,

October 14th. They fell sharply after the Sell signal in June 2021.

Small caps rose sharply after the Buy signal on September 28th, 2020,

rose sharply after a buy signal on July 15th, 2020, and dropped sharply after

our Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell signal in Febru-

ary and again in March 2020.

The Purchasing Power Indicator is a momentum indicator that tells us di-

rectional momentum is strong enough to follow through in that same direction.

It is designed to avoid false breakouts, or is designed to identify high momen-

tum reversals quickly after they occur.

170.00

210.00

250.00

1600.00

1800.00

2000.00

2200.00

2400.00

2600.00

7/15/21 8/15/21 9/15/21 10/15/21

Russell 2000 Purchasing Power IndicatorPPI is a Short-term Momentum Measure of Purchasing Power, Generating Buy and Sell

Signals When Changes Suggest Sustainable Multi-week Moves are Likely.RUT PPI

Sell Signal

Buy SignalOctober 14th, 2021's RUT PPI is + 202.28

PPI

RUT

A Buy Signal Was Registered on 10/14/2021

Needs 196.28 for a Sell Signal.


Russell 2000 versus its 10 day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator


The Russell 2000 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator generated a Buy

signal October 5th, 2021, and small caps have decline sharply since that Sell signal.

A recent Bearish Divergence led to a decline in the Russell 2000.

Some History of this indicator’s performance:

After the January 29th, 2020 Sell signal, the stock market crashed. After the July 19th,

2019 Sell signal, small caps fell sharply. The RUT formed a large and growing Bearish

divergence with its 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator during June and

July 2019, warning a strong stock market decline is approaching. That decline oc-

curred late July into early August.

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1350.00

1550.00

1750.00

1950.00

2150.00

2350.00

2550.00

7/8/21 8/8/21 9/8/21 10/8/21

RUT 10 Day Moving Average Advance/Decline Line vs. the Russell 2000

Bullish Divergence Bearish Divergence

Oftentimes Trend Reversals are Forewarned By Bullish and Bearish DivergencesBetween the NYSE 10 Day MA Adv/Dec Line and the Prices of of Equities.

A Rise above 180 is a Buy signal and a drop below -180 is a Sell Signal.

Russell 2000

RUTA/D

Russell2000

A/D


BuySignal

8.31.21

SellSignal

6.22.21

BuySignal8.2.21

SellSignal

8.17.21

SellSignal

9.13.21

BuySignal

10.5.21


Mining Stocks Signals

(For the HUI and Has Excellent Correlation with Gold)

Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 2 Weeks — Hourly and Daily Traders):

(Young) (More Trend Likely)



Buy or Sell Date of HUI Age of Signal’s Status


HUI Purchasing Power Buy 10/07/2021 238.92 Young More Trend Likely

Indicator:

Medium-term Horizon (Over the Next 2 to 4 Weeks — Daily Traders):

(Young, (More Trend Likely)



Buy or Sell Date of HUI Age of Signal’s Status


30 Day Stochastic Buy 10/07/2021 238.92 Young More Trend Likely

Key HUI Internal Strength Statistics for Thursday, October 14th:


Points % Up

Points % Down

Advancing Issues %

Declining Issues %

Volume % Up

Volume % Down

HUI Purchasing Power Indicator

30 Day Stochastic Fast

30 Day Stochastic Slow

Demand Power Level

Supply Pressure Level

The HUI PPI Needs to Fall Below 220.11 for a New Sell Signal.

Today

111%

100%

0%

100%

0%

100%

0%

226.11

90.00

45.56

+ 6 to 388

- 4 to 376

Yesterday

135%

100%

0%

100%

0%

100%

0%

223.54

80.00

35.56

+10 to 382

- 4 to 380


HUI key trend-finder indicators generated a Buy Signal Thursday, October 7th, 2021,

as the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Buy signal on October 7th, in agreement

with the HUI 30 day Stochastic which is on a Buy Signal from October 7th.

In the chart at the bottom of the next page, we see a Bullish Divergence developing,

suggesting a rising trend is approaching in the HUI.

-40

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

90

140

190

240

290

340

6/8/21 7/8/21 8/8/21 9/8/21 10/8/21

30 Day Stochastic HUI GOLD BUGS

HUI

A Short-term Measure of Momentum Changes Comparing the Percent of HUI Stocks AboveTheir 30 Day MA With a Slower 9 Day MA of Same

Overbought > 80%

Oversold < 15%

For October 8th, 2021: Fast 50.00 Slow 16.67

HUI

% STKS

> 30 DMA

Buy Signal

Sell Signal

A Signal Cross Over/Under Requires a 20 point Fast/Slow Spread Move

A Buy Signal Was Generated October 7th, 2021

Fast

Slow


200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

160

185

210

235

260

285

310

7/8/21 8/8/21 9/8/21 10/8/21

HUI Gold Bugs Purchasing Power IndicatorPPI is a Short-term Momentum Measure of Purchasing Power, Generating Buy and Sell

Signals When Changes Suggest Sustainable Multi-week Moves are Likely.HUI PPI

Buy Signal

Sell Signal October 8th, 2021's HUI PPI is + 215.59

PPI

HUI

A Buy Signal Was Registered on 10/8/2021

copyright © 2021 Robert D. McHugh, Jr. Ph.D.

Needs 209.59 for a New Sell Signal

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

6/8/21 7/8/21 8/8/21 9/8/21 10/8/21

HUI 10 Day Moving Average Advance/Decline Line vs. the HUI

Bullish DivergenceBearish Divergence

Oftentimes Trend Reversals are Forewarned By Bullish and Bearish DivergencesBetween the HUI 10 Day MA Adv/Dec Line and the Prices of of HUI Mining Stocks.

HUI

HUIA/D

HUI

A/D

Oversold

Overbought

copyright © 2020 Robert McHugh

BullishDivergenxe


The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure indicator generated a Buy signal October

14th, 2021.

330

380

430

480

160

190

220

250

280

310

7/15/21 8/15/21 9/15/21 10/15/21

HUI vs: Demand Power & Supply Pressure July 2021 to October 2021

HUI

HUI

DemandPower/Supply

Pressure

Supply Pressure

Demand Power


When Demand Power Crosses above the Supply Pressure Line by 10 points, we get a

Buy Signal. When Supply Pressure rises above Demand Power by 10 points, we get a Sell Signal. Exit Signals occur when DP or SP lines return to intersection after an entry signal.

The HUI Triggered an "Buy Signal" 10/14/21

Bearish Divergence

Bullish Divergence

SellSignal8.6.21

EnterLong

10.14.21

TRADERS CORNER

For Standard and Platinum Subscribers

How Educational Trading is Offered

We offer three Investing/Trading Services. Standard subscribers have access to two of the three. Platinum sub-

scribers have access to all three. Dr. McHugh and Main Line Investors, Inc. are not to be considered the reader’s

investment advisor. Please consult your Investment Advisor before Trading.

The first Service is our Conservative Portfolio model. This is available to all subscribers. We have six categories

of investments in this model; Cash, U.S. Government Securities, Gold, Buy and Hold, Market Timing, and Speculative.

The details and philosophy can be read at the Conservative Portfolio model button at the left of the home page. Our goal

with this portfolio is to beat the S&P 500 while generating positive returns over the long run with low risk investments

and trading strategies. In other words, we do not want to lose money in any one year, yet over a five year period, want to

have returns far in excess of the S&P 500. Since its inception in 2008, we have achieved these goals.

The Second Service is our Market Timing Transactions: Available to all Standard and Platinum subscribers, we

conduct approximately 5 to 10 ETF or Leveraged ETF trades per year, using our Secondary Trend Indicator, and other

key Indicators to generate returns of 5 to 10 percent per trade, have 70 percent or more of our trades be successful, with

less than 10 percent of our portfolio at risk at any one time, and with each transaction limited to a maximum risk of 2 per-

cent or our portfolio. These transactions are reported at the Transactions button under the Conservative Portfolio head-

er at the left of the home page. The purpose of this segment is to be a bit more aggressive to enhance overall perfor-

mance of the Conservative Portfolio with overall minimal risk.

The Third Service is our Platinum Trading Service: Available only to Platinum subscribers, we conduct approxi-

mately 15 to 30 Long Options trades (Long means we play markets to rise or fall, but the maximum we can lose is the

amount invested) or Leveraged ETF trades per year, using all trading indicators at our disposal. This is the speculative

segment of our Conservative Portfolio, with total risk at any one time limited to 5 percent of our portfolio. We usually only

have 1 to 10 trades outstanding at any time. These trades are reported at the Platinum Current Trade button at the up-

per left of the home page. Details and philosophy, and past performance, can be accessed at the FAQ and Archives

buttons under the Platinum Header at the upper left of the home page.

On a good faith basis, Trades are emailed to subscribers within 15 minutes of the time we conducted the trans-

actions. We also post details of the trades at the Conservative Transactions button or the Platinum Current Trade button

within 15 minutes of when we conduct them. This is not trading advice, is educational only.

Today’s Trades

Platinum Options Educational Trading Service:

There were 0 trades today, October 14th, 2021.

There are 15 open positions as of today, October 14th, 2021.

Silver ETF Educational Trading Service:


There are 7 open positions as of today, October 14th, 2021.

Standard Conservative Portfolio Educational Service:

(Includes our Dollar Cost Averaging Educational Program)



PLATINUM OPTIONS / ETF TRADERS CORNER

For Platinum Subscribers

Past Performance Summary For Closed Trades

By Year From 2011 through September 30th, 2021

# Closed # Winning % Winning # Losing Net Total Avg. $

Year Trades Trades Trades Trades $ Profits Per Trade

2020/21 153 128 84% 25 $ 237,081 $ 9,122

2020 89 74 83% 15 $ 207,709 $ 12,822

2019 61 50 81% 11 $ 85,905 $ 7,691

2018 65 48 74% 17 $ 53,880 $ 3,803

2017 30 25 83% 5 $ 31,400 $ 5,629

2016 35 31 88% 4 $ 144,736 $ 18,990

2015 26 23 88% 3 $ 28,882 $ 4,229

2014 30 28 93% 2 $ 74,418 $ 12,052

2013 45 39 86% 5 $ 92,470 $ 3,481

2011/12 66 44 67% 22 $ 27,620 $ 1,680

All of the above trades and details can be reviewed at the Archived Trades button at

the upper left of the home page at www.technicalindicatorindex.com IT SHOULD NOT BE

ASSUMED THAT TRADE IDEAS MADE IN THE FUTURE WILL BE PROFITABLE OR WILL

EQUAL THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SECURITIES IN THIS LIST

Here is a Performance Summary for the first 10.75 Years of the Program,

From January 1st, 2011 through September 30th, 2021:

# Total Trades 551

# Winning Trades 448

# Losing Trades 103

% Winning Trades 81.3%

Avg. $ Invested Per Trade $7,251

Net $ Profits (Loss) Realized $783,741 Profits

“If My People who are called by My name,

Humble themselves and pray, and seek My face

And turn from their wicked ways,

Then I will hear from heaven, will forgive their sin,

And will heal their land.”

2 Chronicles 7: 13,14


SILVER ETF Program TRADERS CORNER

For Platinum Subscribers

Past Performance Summary For Closed Trades

From January 1st, 2020 through September 30th, 2021

# Closed # Winning % Winning # Losing Net Total Avg. $

Year Trades Trades Trades Trades $ Profits Per Trade

2021 11 11 100.0% 0 $ 4,604 $ 6,270

2020 32 30 93.8% 2 $ 33,292 $ 7,448

In 2020, our Silver Service ETF Trades generated profits, net of losses, of $33,292 on

closed trades. We price a membership in this service at $795 per year, so for the year 2020,

net profits were 41 times greater than the price of the one year membership.

Our Silver ETF Trading Program, which also includes all of our Standard Newsletter

and Conservative Portfolio Services, is a program for trading the markets using Exchange

Traded Funds, that does not trade Options, as our Platinum program does. This is a more

conservative trading program than Platinum as ETFs do not have expiration dates, and Op-

tions do. The objective of this program is to conduct a high quantity of trades per year that

cumulatively generate strong profits by the end of the year. The upside is not as great as

trading options, but the downside is not as great either. The annualized equivalent return on

these trades is substantial as most trades are not held for long periods of time.

All of the above Exchange Traded Funds trades and details can be reviewed at the Ar-

chived Trades button at the upper left of the home page at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT TRADE IDEAS MADE IN THE FUTURE WILL BE PROF-

ITABLE OR WILL EQUAL THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SECURITIES IN THIS LIST. Dr.

McHugh and Main Line Investors, Inc. are not to be considered the reader’s investment advi-

sor. Please consult your Investment Advisor before Trading.

Here is a Performance Summary for the first 1.75 Years of the Program,

From January 1st, 2020 through September 30th, 2021:

# Total Trades 43

# Winning Trades 41

# Losing Trades 2

% Winning Trades 95.3%

Avg. $ Invested Per Trade $7,146

Net $ Profits (Loss) Realized $37,896 Profits



Above we show the Elliott Wave mapping for this final subwave Cycle de-

gree wave V-up for Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} up, which looks to have

ended. For the first time, since this Rising Bearish Wedge patterns started in

1987, we see a classic “Throwover” for the fifth and final wave (E ). Typically

this pattern does not end until a “throwover” rally occurs in the fifth and final

wave, where prices rise slightly above the upper boundary. This has now oc-

curred, so this pattern can now end.

This is telling us a major top is imminent, whether it occurs in a week or a

few months (since this pattern is almost 35 years in the making, the throwover

can take a few months), it is essentially finished.

Further, the slope of the rally from March 2020 is nearly vertical, also

known as parabolic. Parabolic rallies do not typically end well.

Caution is warranted.

IV

(A)

(B)

(C)

(D)

(E ) V, (V), {III}

{IV}

Industrials’ Scenario Where Grand Supercycle

degree wave {III} Up is Finishing.

Jaws of Death Top

Pattern from 2017 is

close to completion, the

end to the Massive Ris-

ing Bearish Wedge from

1986

Typical Throwover


Above is a close-up of the final Megaphone top pattern to conclude Grand

Supercycle degree wave {III} up. It’s completion is imminent.

(C)

E, (D)

C, (E ) V, (V), {III}

A

B

D

C

Industrials’ JAWS OF DEATH PATTERN

from 2017

A

B


Above we see three very dangerous set-ups for the Dow Industrials, and therefore the stock market. A

Rounded top from June 2021, a Head & Shoulders top from June 2021, and the potential for a Dangerous and rare

Dow Theory Bear Market signal, with a drop below the June secondary low, at 33,290. The projected downside tar-

get for the Head & Shoulders pattern suggests the Industrials will drop sharply below 33,290, toward 32,000 at least,

which would trigger the Dow Theory Bear Market signal (with far more downside to follow).

The Transportation average topped on May 7th, 2021 and has been in a sharp decline since. After following

the Trannies decline into June, the Industrials diverged, and rose to a new high on August 16th, 2021, which was not

confirmed by the Trannies (see charts on next page). This non-confirmation was an early warning. If the Industrials

now confirm the Trannies decline with a new low below June’s bottom, below 33,290, the Dow Theory Bear Market

will be in force.

The previous Dow Theory Bear Market signal came on March 9th, 2020, as the crash was getting legs.

Dow Theory has been around for almost 100 years, yet even in today's volatile and technology-driven mar-

kets, the basic components of Dow Theory still remain valid. Developed by Charles Dow, refined by William Hamil-

ton and articulated by Robert Rhea, Dow Theory addresses not only technical analysis and price action, but also

market philosophy.

When Dow Theory was being developed at the turn of the century, the railroads were a vital link in the

economy (today it is airlines, rails, and trucking). Hamilton argued that, in many cases, activity would begin in the

Rail Average before the Industrial Average. He attributed this to the fact that before economic activity began, raw

materials would have to be moved from the suppliers to manufacturers.

A decline below this low,

33,290, will cause a Dangerous

and rare Dow Theory Bear

Market Signal.

Right Shoulder

Head

Left Shoulder

Neckline A Possible Head & Shoul-

ders Top Pattern for the

Industrials, with a Down-

side Price Target of

32,000ish.

A Dangerous Round-

ed Top Pattern for the

Dow Industrials.


The Dow theory asserts that major market trends are composed of three phases: an accumulation phase, a

public participation (or absorption) phase, and a distribution phase. Bottom line; it’s a classic indicator of real selling.

Just before the genesis of a bear market, the weak hands are flushed out. Fast money investors (pros) without deep

investing commitments run for the hills first.

Dow and Hamilton identified three types of price movements for the Dow Jones Industrial and Rail averages:

primary movements, secondary movements and daily fluctuations. Primary moves, which can last from a few

months to many years, represent the broad underlying trend of the market. Secondary (or reaction) movements,

which can last from a few weeks to a few months, move counter to the primary trend. Daily fluctuations can move

with or against the primary trend and last from a few hours to a few days, but usually not more than a week. Prima-

ry moves are Bear and Bull markets.

Hamilton and Dow stressed that, in order for a primary trend buy or sell signal to be valid, both the Industri-

al Average and the Rail Average must confirm each other. If one average records a new high or new low, then the

other must soon follow for a Dow Theory signal to be considered valid.

But like any tool in technical analysis, this is not an infallible signal. There are no guarantees. It is a caution

signal to be considered.

Reference: Stockcharts.com

New High for Industrials

Waiting for a New

Lower Low for the

Industrials for a

Dow Theory Bear

Market Signal.

NO New High for Trannies

New Lower Low

for Trannies


{v}, {1}

(e ) {b}

(3), {i} {3}, 3

{a} {c}, {2}

The Industrials could

soon start a Mini Crash

in subwave {3} down of

3-down.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

Alt. {c}, {2}

(1)

(2)

e, e, C

1

2

{i}

{ii}

{v}, {1}

{iii}

{iv}

{b}

(3), {i} {3}, 3

{a} {c}, {2}

The Short-term Labeling for

the Industrials.

The Industrials could

soon start a Mini Crash

in subwave {3} down of

3-down.

Alt. {c}, {2}

(1)

(2)


What is the above completed Jaws of Death pattern from 2017, which is a

component sub-pattern of the larger degree massive Jaws of Death pattern on

the next page, telling us?

It is telling us that A Stock Market Crash is coming, likely soon in 2021.

(C)

E, (D)

(E ) V, (V), {III}

A

B

D

C

The S&P 500

This Expanding Mega-

phone Jaws of Death

Pattern looks finished

and is warning in no un-

spoken terms that a

Stock Market

CRASH is coming,

likely occurring

soon in 2021.


I thought it would be interesting to stack the Head & Shoulders top patterns for the In-

dustrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 consecutively above, and on the next page. These pat-

terns are after the strong rally the past two days for each market. The H&S patters are intact,

and oddly, we see Triangle tops with the rising and and falling boundaries acting as re-

sistance as prices rose into apexes and have since declined. These are very well defined

boundaries, and have stopped ALL Rallies over the past several months.

The 50 day moving average now appears to be strong resistance as well.

Make no mistake, these are Bearish patterns. The purpose of strong rallies inside

strong large degree declines is to shake out the shorts, forcing short-cover buying, leaving

shorts out of the market just as the next powerful decline is about to start. They also draw in

the Bulls so they can be exposed and get creamed at the coming strong decline. The point is,

once we are in a Bear market, the Bear is not interested in helping shorts, he wants everyone

to lose, both Bulls and Bears.

Right Shoulder

Head

Left Shoulder

Neckline

A Possible Head & Shoul-


Industrials, with a Down-

side Price Target of

32,000ish.

DOW INDUSTRIALS


Right Shoulder

Head

Left Shoulder

Neckline



S&P 500, with a Downside

Price Target of 4,000ish.

S&P 500

Right Shoulder

Head

Left Shoulder

Neckline



S&P 500, with a Downside

Price Target of 4,000ish.

NASDAQ 100


Above we see the S&P 500 has completed a Long Term Rising Bearish

Wedge from 1986, overlapped contemporaneously by a Jaws of Death pattern

from 1986. Both patterns are complete now.

What is the message of the market from these patterns? What are the mar-

kets telling us with these completed patterns, completed here in 2021?

There is the mother of Stock Market Crashes coming, and likely to begin

in the period from 2021 through 2022, causing a major Economic Recession /

Depression from 2022 through 2027.

IV

(A)

(B)

(C)

(D)

(E ) V, (V), {III}

{IV}

The S&P 500 is completing a Massive

Rising Bearish Wedge, to finish Grand

Supercylce degree wave {III}.

Typical Throwover


Above is one possible wave mapping for the final subwave C-up of wave

(E ) up of the Megaphone topping pattern from 2017. If correct, this is a Rising

Expanding Wedge pattern, which is a topping Bearish pattern, that could have

topped.

If so, a Crash is next, coming in stages, starting soon. The first stage may

have started, with a corrective rise nearly complete, to be followed by a power-

ful decline.

e, C, (E ) V, (V), {III}

c

d a

b

A Rising Expanding Wedge

Bearish Topping Pattern from

October 2020 to March 2021.


Right Shoulder

Head

Left Shoulder

Neckline

A Possible Head &

Shoulders Top Pattern

for the S&P 500, with a

Downside Price Target

of 4,000ish.

{1}

{2}

{3}

{4}

{5}, 1

e, e, C, (E ) V

{a}

{b}

{c}, 2

{1}, 3

A Short-term Labeling

for the S&P 500.

Under this scenario,

the S&P 500 could rally

into early October, and

then Plunge in sub-

wave {1} down of 3-

down.

Wave 2-up forms a

complex Flat pattern.


The NASDAQ 100 may have finished wave e-up of a five subwave Rising

Bearish Wedge pattern, to complete the final wave E-up for a major top.

The NASDAQ 100 is about to Plunge, upon completion of the final subwave e-up to com-

plete this Rising Bearish Wedge from January 2021.

A CRASH is coming in 2021 through 2022.

e, E, (E ), V, (V), {III}

a

b

c

d

The Techs Top may be In.


The NASDAQ 100 has completed Micro degree waves 1-down, and 2-up. The five

waves comprising 1-down are supportive of a new impulsive declining trend of larger de-

gree. Wave 3-down has started with submicro degree wave {1} down of 3-down. Corrective

wave {2} up is underway. Once it tops, a powerful wave {3} down of 3-down will follow.

That decline will be dramatic.

{1}

{2}

{3}

{4}

{5}, 1

e, e, C, (E ) V

{a}

{b}

{c}, 2

A Short-term Labeling

for the NASDAQ 100.

Under this scenario,

the NASDAQ 100 could

rally into mid-October,

and then Plunge in sub-

wave {3} down of 3-

down.

{i}

{ii}

{iii}

{iv}

{v} {1}

{c}, {2}

{a}

{b}

{i} {3}, 3


(C)

C, (D)

C, (E ) V, (V), {III}

A

B

B

A

IV

(A)

(B)

(C)

(D)

(E ) V, (V), {III}

{IV}

Typical Throwover

Small Caps are

going to CRASH,

likely starting in

2021 and contin-

uing into 2023.

This Pattern Looks Complete.


The Russell 2000 has formed a Diamond Top pattern, which is not a com-

mon formation, but is considered a strong bearish reversal pattern. This gives a

downside price target of 200ish for IWM, the ETF that tracks small caps. This

would be about a 10 percent decline from current levels.

On the previous page, we show that the Russell 2000, as represented by

the ETF IWM, has formed a very nearly completed long-term Rising Bearish

Wedge, and has formed the “throwover,” which tells us it is finished or very

nearly so.

5, C, (E ) V, (V), {III}

4

3


Trannies have completed an Expanding Triangle, Megaphone, Jaws of

Death Topping pattern. This pattern is telling us a major stock market CRASH is

coming soon in 2021 through 2022 that could last into 2023 to 2024.

It may be starting.

(C)

C, (D)

C, (E ) V, (V), {III}

A

B

A (A)

A

B


Gold may have finished Primary degree wave (2) down, and started Prima-

ry degree wave (3) up of Cycle degree wave III-up. Wave (3) up could take Gold

toward 3000. The alternate is wave (2) down has lower to go to finish the

“Handle” portion of the Cup and Handle bullish pattern before the coming ex-

plosive rally.

Gold’s Wave Mapping September 17th, 2021

I

(C ), II c (A)

a

b a

e, 5 (1)

(3), III

Weekly Full STO

On a Buy.

b

1

2

3

4

(2)

c (B)

Gold may have started Primary de-

gree wave (3) up of Cycle degree

wave III-up.

a

b

c

d

Alt. (2)


Gold has formed a Cup and Handle Bullish Pattern from 2011 through 2021.

Upon completion of the Handle, we can expect an upside price breakout. Here

are two textbook examples. Below these, we show Gold’s Current Pattern. We

see Gold has nearly completed its Handle, which means a powerful upside

price breakout is coming.

Gold’s Cup and Handle Bullish Pattern

is Nearly Complete. Gold will

Breakout Higher in a Big Way .


Above we see a close-up for Gold’s Handle portion of its Cup and Handle

Bullish pattern from 2011, shown on the previous page. A rise above 1,875

would be Bullish. A rise above 1,950 would be off to the races.

Gold may have completed wave e-down of C-down of a Declining Triangle

pattern, serving as a large portion of the Handle, to finish Primary degree wave

(2) down. A powerful rally looks to have started, wave (3) up. The alternate is

wave e-down remains underway.

If (2) down is finished, Inside wave (3) up, Gold looks to have completed

wave 1-up, and may need another decline to complete an a-down, b-up, c-down

move for Minor degree 2-down. The alternate is wave 2-down has bottomed. It

will take a rise above 1,850 to confirm wave 2 has bottomed.

A

B

e, C, (2)

v, e, 5, (1), III

a

b

c

d

A close-up of Gold’s

Labeling, an A-down,

Declining Triangle B,

and C-Declining Tri-

angle to complete

corrective wave (2)

down.

Alt. e, C, (2)

A Close-up of Gold’s

Handle

1

c, 2

3

a

b

Alt. c, 2


The very short-run view for Gold:

Gold’s short-term wave mapping is that wave 2-down is not complete, with

3-up to follow.

1

5, a

1

2

3

4

c, b a

b c, 2

i, 3

a

b

Alt. c, 2


Silver

1

c, y, 2

a

{e} b {a}

v, 3

a

b

c, x

c, w

{c}

{b} {d}

a

b

i

ii

iii

iv

4

Silver is inside an

Sideways Triangle

for wave 4’s correc-

tive move.

5

c, y, 2

v, 3

i

ii

iii

iv

a

b

e, 4

c

d


Mining stocks are completing wave ii down of 3-up.

5, 1 (3 ) III

II

5, (1)

4

3

2

1

5, c, (2)

a

2

1

b

3

4

Monthly Full Stochastics

On a Sell.

1

c, 2

v, 3

4

a

b

i

ii

iii

iv


i

c, ii

a

b

1

c, 2 a

Weekly Full Stochastics

On a Buy.

Oversold,

i

a

b

c, b

iii, 3

a

b

c, ii Alt. c, ii

Alt. c, ii


The HUI Mining stocks have formed a pretty impressive Head & Shoulders top pattern.

This may be telling us that when the stock market crashes, Mining stocks (a hybrid of an op-

erating company of underground metals, with the benefit of gold pricing once it is above

ground) will also follow stocks lower. The estimated downside from this pattern is around

190ish.

Initially this makes sense, as they tracked the stock market during the crash of March

2020, However, with the Fed likely to pump dollars aggressively once the crash has been in

play for a while, Miners should reach their projected bottom per the above chart and head

sharply higher, along with Gold, diverging with Stocks that are destined to continue lower.

Head

Left Shoulder Right Shoulder

Neckline

Downside

Price Target

190ish


Mining stocks appear to be dropping in a Declining Bullish Wedge to com-

plete wave c-down of ii down. This has a downside price target of around 27 in

the GDX and around 190ish in the HUI. Once this bottom arrives, a powerful ral-

ly should commence.

b

{a}

{e}, c, ii

1, iii

{b}

{c}

{d}

A Declining Bullish

Wedge for Mining

Stocks.

Alt. {e}, c, ii


c, 4

v, a

i

ii

b

c, 2

iii

iv

5, 1

c

x

a

b

c

b

a

1

2

5, 3

3

4

c, 2

1

2

5, 3

3

4


The U.S. Dollar may have completed wave 3-down, dropping the dollar as

it is devalued from trillions of currency supply printed by the Fed to deal with

the developing Economic Depression. The Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned

to nearly $8 trillion from $3.8 trillion over the past year and a half. It is money

printed out of thin air, and then used to purchase assets in the economy.

The Euro may have completed wave e-down to complete the pennant por-

tion of a huge Flag pattern.

a

b

c

d

e

Weekly Full Stochastics

on a Sell Signal.

ii

i


The Euro’s short-term pattern shows the final wave c-down of ii down is

not complete, diving deeper. It previously topped in May 2021 following a small

degree Rising Bearish Wedge.

a

b

{v}, {1}

{i}

{ii}

{iii}

{iv}

{3}, c, ii

{c}, {2} {a}

{b}


C, b

c, E, (1)

5, c, e D

1

2

3

4 b

a

A

c, C

a

b

a

c, E, (1)

a

b

Monthly WTIC Oil

Oil

Monthly Full

Stochastics

On a Buy.

c, B

b

c

c, e D

a

d b

a

b


U.S. Bonds are declining in corrective wave 2-down, which has retraced 65

percent of wave 1-up. Once wave 2 bottoms, wave 3-up will follow. U.S. Bonds

rose to an all-time high in March 2020 and have been correcting since.

Bonds are inside a large degree powerful rally leg that will continue for

many years to come as the stock market and U.S. and Global economies sink.

At the bottom of the next page, we show that the 10 Year U.S. Treasury

Note is rising inside a large degree trend-channel (blue lines). It also has risen

to an all-time high in March 2020, record low interest rates, hitting 0.7% March

6th.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Daily Full Stochastics

are On a Sell Signal.

Bottomg.

v, 1

i

ii

iii

iv

(5), C, (2)

c, 2

3, (3)

a

b


There is an Alternate labeling for U.S. Bonds, which is short-term Bearish, probably

reflecting the massive inflation going on due to extreme Labor and Product shortages.

Supporting this scenario is the possible and nearly complete Head & Shoulders top-

ping pattern Bonds have formed over the past two years. If Bonds drop, it means interest

rates will rise, which is a negative for the stock market.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Daily Full Stochastics

are On a Sell Signal.

v, 1

i

ii

iii

iv

(5), C, (2) c, 2

3, (3)

a

b

Alternate for wave 2-

down for U.S. Bonds Head

Left Shoulder Right Shoulder

Neckline


iii b

c

d

e, iv

3, v

a

5, v, 1

1

2

3

4

a

b

c, 2

U.S. Treasuries

For U.S. 10 Year

Notes., a possible

upside target is

the rising upper

boundary around

155ish.


The VIX has formed a five wave Declining Wedge pattern. The VIX has ris-

en from a bottom, and has nearly reached the upper boundary. A breakout

above that boundary would be Bearish for the stock market.

A

B

C

D

E, (A) B

A

(C)

A

B

C, (B) C, (D)

A

B

C, (E)


“3Don't let anyone deceive you in any way, for that day will not come until the re-

bellion occurs and the man of lawlessness is revealed, the man doomed to de-

struction. 4He will oppose and will exalt himself over everything that is called

God or is worshiped, so that he sets himself up in God's temple, proclaiming

himself to be God. 5Don't you remember that when I was with you I used to tell

you these things? 6And now you know what is holding him back, so that he may

be revealed at the proper time. 7For the secret power of lawlessness is already

at work; but the one who now holds it back will continue to do so till he is taken

out of the way. 8And then the lawless one will be revealed, whom the LORD Je-

sus will overthrow with the breath of his mouth and destroy by the splendor of

his coming.”

2 Thessalonians 2:3-8

“11 Then I saw a second beast, coming out of the earth. It had two horns like a

lamb, but it spoke like a dragon. 12

It exercised all the authority of the first beast

on its behalf, and made the earth and its inhabitants worship the first

beast, whose fatal wound had been healed. 13

And it performed great

signs, even causing fire to come down from heaven to the earth in full view of

the people. 14

Because of the signs it was given power to perform on behalf of

the first beast, it deceived the inhabitants of the earth. It ordered them to set up

an image in honor of the beast who was wounded by the sword and yet

lived. 15

The second beast was given power to give breath to the image of the

first beast, so that the image could speak and cause all who refused to wor-

ship the image to be killed. 16

It also forced all people, great and small, rich and

poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hands or on their fore-

heads, 17

so that they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, which is

the name of the beast or the number of its name.”

Revelation 13: 11-17

http://www.biblica.com/en-us/bible/online-bible/niv/2-thessalonians/2/


“3Don't let anyone deceive you in any way, for that day will not come until the re-

bellion occurs and the man of lawlessness is revealed, the man doomed to de-

struction. 4He will oppose and will exalt himself over everything that is called

God or is worshiped, so that he sets himself up in God's temple, proclaiming

himself to be God. 5Don't you remember that when I was with you I used to tell

you these things? 6And now you know what is holding him back, so that he may

be revealed at the proper time. 7For the secret power of lawlessness is already

at work; but the one who now holds it back will continue to do so till he is taken

out of the way. 8And then the lawless one will be revealed, whom the LORD Je-

sus will overthrow with the breath of his mouth and destroy by the splendor of

his coming.”

2 Thessalonians 2:3-8

http://www.biblica.com/en-us/bible/online-bible/niv/2-thessalonians/2/

MCHUGH’S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT Psalm 91 God’s Protection Against Pestilence

1 He who dwells in the shelter of the Most High

Will abide in the shadow of the Almighty. 2 I will say to the Lord, “My refuge and my fortress,

My God, in whom I trust!” 3 For it is He who delivers you from the snare of the trapper

And from the deadly pestilence. 4 He will cover you with His pinions,

And under His wings you may seek refuge;

His faithfulness is a shield and bulwark.

You will not be afraid of the terror by night,

Or of the arrow that flies by day; 6 Of the pestilence that stalks in darkness,

Or of the destruction that lays waste at noon. 7 A thousand may fall at your side

And ten thousand at your right hand,

But it shall not approach you. 8 You will only look on with your eyes

And see the recompense of the wicked. 9For you have made the Lord, my refuge,

Even the Most High, your dwelling place. 10 No evil will befall you,

Nor will any plague come near your tent.

For He will give His angels charge concerning you,

To guard you in all your ways. 12 They will bear you up in their hands,

That you do not strike your foot against a stone. 13 You will tread upon the lion and cobra,

The young lion and the serpent you will trample down.

“Because he has loved Me, therefore I will deliver him;

I will set him securely on high, because he has known My name. 15 “He will call upon Me, and I will answer him;

I will be with him in trouble;

I will rescue him and honor him. 16 “With a long life I will satisfy him

And let him see My salvation.”


“Do not let your heart be troubled; believe in God, believe also in Me. In My

Father’s house are many dwelling places; if it were not so, I would have told

you; for I go to prepare a place for you. If I go and prepare a place for you, I

will come again and receive you to Myself, that where I am, there you may be

also. And you know the way where I am going.” Thomas said to Him, “Lord,

we do not know where You are going, how do we know the way?”

Jesus said to him, “I am the way, and the truth, and the life;

No one comes to the Father but through Me.”

John 14:1-6

Glossary of Indicators

1. How Best to Use this Service:

We provide a highly correlative trading/investing entry signal for each of four time frames of trading, Short (1 to

2 weeks), Medium (2 to 4 weeks), Intermediate ( 1 to 6 Months), and Long, 6 Months to 2 years. Speculative trading with

options or futures works best using the Short and Medium term trading indicators. Market Timing with Leveraged ETFs

work well with Medium and Intermediate term trading indicators, while investing works best with the Long Term Trend

Indicator signals. On pages 2 and 3 we summarize our best indicators showing the trend for each of these four

timeframes at any given day. Within the longer timeframes can be lesser timeframe signals going in the same or a differ-

ent direction as the direction of the larger timeframe’s trend. In other words, over the course of a two year primary trend

that for example is on a buy, suggesting stocks should rise for several months or years, there are periods of time where

the trend may be either down or up within that rising larger trend. In other words, large stock market trends do not move

in a straight line. They stairstep higher if a rising primary trend or stairstep lower if a declining primary trend. This is the

case for all timeframes. There can always be a smaller timeframe within any timeframe that sees stocks move in the

same or opposite direction of the larger timeframe it is in. For example, stocks may rise during the day, however they

could decline in 3 of the 8 hours of trading yet still close higher for the day. There are always subwaves of price trends

within waves of price trends at any degree of trend. Pages 2 and 3 of this report shows you four timeframes and the key

trading signals relevant for each timeframe’s current trend.

But, it is important to understand the age of a trend after a signal has been given. That is because age offers

exiting guidance. Our Trend Indicators are entry signals. Our age work identifies potential exit points. Exiting is more of

a judgment call the entering a trade. Exiting is dependent upon the individual trader’s risk appetite, experience, financial

position, or target profit goals. A trader chooses when to exit based upon their unique situation. Our background indica-

tors and Elliott Wave chart work help identify the age of a trend. We show background indicators and signals on page 7

that are useful for determining how old a trend’s signal is. For example, if a rising trend’s buy signal was several weeks

ago, we would not want to buy the market now if that trend is approaching its conclusion, if its age is extremely mature.

On the other hand, if the trend is young, if the buy signal still is young based upon our background age-identifying indi-

cators and signals, then we may want to jump in and buy this trend even if it has been going on for a while. Age is not

time dependent, although time can be a useful subcomponent for determining age, but age is also based upon other

factors in addition to time, such as overbought or oversold levels, approaching cycle turn dates, weakening momentum

and weakening internals, or completing wave mapping patterns. We provide a host of information in the background and

other sections of the report that help determine the age of a trend and the probability the trend is young, maturing, or old

– our three age descriptive categories for trends.

We predict the likely point where a new tradable trend turn is occurring, because it allows us to be ready to

trade a brand new trend early in its life and get the maximum profit from that new trend, either up or down. Traders can

benefit from declining trends by either playing a short position with long puts or ETF funds, or by actual shorting (very

dangerous for the inexperienced), or by simply moving to cash until the decline is over and prices are cheaper to buy

back in. Age defining indicators and signals, and Elliott Wave mapping, and cycle date identification helps us predict or

forecast the approximate time for a trend turn at varying degrees of timeframes, short, medium, intermediate or long.

Most of our report focuses on age defining information. However, confirmation the trend has in fact turned comes only

when we get new trend trading signals shown on pages 2 and 3. Those key trading indicator signals are the Purchasing

Power Indicator (Short-term), the Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator (Medium-term), the Secondary Trend Indi-

cator (Intermediate-term), and the Primary Trend Indicator (Long-term). These are not perfect, but are highly correlative

to identifying trends that have much further to go after the new signal has been generated.


Once we have these signals, subscribers can use this information anyway they want to, but it is recommended

that subscribers not rely solely upon these signals, since everyone has different risk appetite, experience, financial posi-

tions, and goals and objectives. The valuable information we provide should be used in conjunction with guidance from

your investment advisor. Our work is educational. It is not meant to be investing or trading advice. It is useful as a tool

for your investing decisions, but is not to be considered our advice to you. What we do offer for help in applying this in-

formation is an educational service on how we are trading for ourselves based upon this information.

For Standard subscribers, we provide a Conservative Portfolio model where we show how we are investing and

trading. We divide the portfolio up into several segments, shown at the Model button under the Conservative Portfolio

header at the left of our home page. Standard subscribers can see how we conduct 5 to 10 leveraged ETF trades per

year at the Transactions button under the Conservative Portfolio button at our website. These trades take place within

the Market Timing segment of our Conservative Portfolio and aim to achieve 5 to 10 percent profits for each trade.

Some trades may lose money on occasion, as no system is perfect. We deal in probabilities, not certainties, but we

hope to be successful over 70 percent of the time. These trades are educational, not advice. We simply share what we

are doing. We email notices of these transactions within 15 minutes of when we conduct them.

For Platinum subscribers, we provide everything Standard Subscribers receive, plus we share 15 to 30 trades

per year that we conduct primarily in the options markets. We buy puts or calls long, meaning the maximum we can lose

is limited to our investment. We target 30 to 50 percent profits on each trade, and aim for a success rate of 70 percent or

better. These trading services provide live real time demonstration of how we use the trend trading signals and aging

indicators, cycles and wave mapping to make money, to enhance returns on portfolios. We do not risk more than 5 per-

cent of our portfolio in options trades. We believe the returns we can generate by risking only up to 5 percent in specula-

tive trading is significant enough to enhance overall portfolio performance above what can be made by investing in the

S&P 500. In other words, we keep 95 percent of our Conservative portfolio in conservative investments, and aggressive-

ly trade with options in only a small percent of the portfolio. Most trades in the Platinum program are less than 2 percent

of capital, and there are usually only one or two trades going on at a time. These trades are educational, not trading ad-

vice.

This service uses time tested technical analysis theory, which simply says that markets move based upon the

collective psyche of the masses of all people on earth. Further, we believe that market moves are predictable as the

mass psychology of investors with all knowledge in total can be measured. Markets measure this mass psychology

through price behavior, which forms patterns of price movement that is in essence a language. The market knows where

it is headed next, has a language, tells us where it is headed with this language, and we can understand this language

through the study of technical analysis, which is what we do here. Further, money can be made by making investing

decisions based upon what the market is saying at any given timeframe. This is what we do. We wish you success. The

remainder of this glossary will define indicators, cycles, patterns, and wave mapping techniques that either provide our

key trading indicators shown on pages 2 and 3 or provide aging information for these four key trading indicators.

2. Purchasing Power Indicator

This is the best indicator we have for defining the start of new trends that could last 1 to 2 weeks, and on occa-

sion, up to 4 weeks. The reason this is so good at defining legitimate short-term trends and does not get faked out by

weak countertrend moves is because this is a momentum measure that identifies when there is enough power behind a

trend turn to suggest a new trend has started that should produce a continuation of the new trend for several percentage

points in an index.


This is a proprietary measure of supply and demand momentum. We calculate it at the end of every day, based

upon closing data. New buy signals are generated when this indicator moves 6 points above its recent low, and new sell

signals are generated when this indicator moves 6 points below its recent high. It is calculated separately for each of the

major stock market indices we cover: The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 share the same PPI indicator. We also cal-

culate this for the NASDAQ 100, the Russell 2000 small cap index, the HUI Gold Bugs index, and the Australia

SPASX200 index.

Momentum is the key to finding tradable trends. Just like in life, if an object is in motion with strong momentum,

the object will continue in that same direction for a while. The greater the momentum, the further it moves. Our PPI iden-

tifies when there is sufficient momentum in a new direction for stocks, that the probability of the stock move continuing in

that same direction is high.

Purchasing Power Indicator needs the new trend to begin before it generates a new signal. But that is okay be-

cause we do not want to enter a trade unless the trend has much further to go. Once we get a new signal in the PPI, the

odds are high prices will continue further in the same direction, often identifying the likelihood of at least a 3 to 5 percent

further move. Keep in mind, that when playing options, a 3 to 5 percent move can result in 20 to 100 percent returns

depending upon which term and strike price is chosen for the trade. Or if playing Leveraged ETF’s, returns of 5 to 15

percent are possible. This means our Purchasing Power Indicator offers an enormous opportunity to make a ton of mon-

ey to traders and market timing investors.

3. 30 and 14 Day Stochastic Indicators:

On page two we show theses trading buy/sell indicators along with the Purchasing Power Indicator. On very

rare occasions, the Purchasing Power Indicator will get whipsawed, meaning a tradable trend does not follow. Those

instances are almost always when a sideways triangle or small degree wedge pattern is forming. In those rare instanc-

es, markets will oscillate back and forth for several days or weeks, and our PPI will whip back and forth from buys to

sells. This can be frustrating to a trader if the sideways move was not expected. The first two or three back and forth

moves (waves) within a triangle are often violent moves in opposite directions, indicative of either complete confusion

on the part of investors, or market intervention by the Plunge Protection Team to stop a decline.

What we have to protect ourselves from false positive signals by the PPI is our 30 day and 14 day stochastics

signals. They monitor a fast speed and a slower speed of momentum by the markets. When the Fast measure crosses

more than 10 points above the Slow measure, we get a buy signal. When the Fast measure moves more than 10 points

below the Slow measure, we get a new sell signal. We want this signal to line up in the same direction as the Purchas-

ing Power Indicator before entering a trade. We sometimes might enter a trade without these two stochastic indicators

agreeing with the PPI, but understand, that is a higher risk trade than if all three indicators are in agreement. But on its

own, the PPI has an outstanding track record, so aggressive traders can use the PPI alone at times; more conservative

traders can stay out until all three are in agreement.

Our experience shows that when these three are not in agreement about the direction of a trend, it means that

either a trend turn is coming, or a sideways move is occurring, such as a triangle, or small countertrend move inside a

larger degree trend of the opposite direction.


4. Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator:

Demand Power and Supply Pressure is our medium term time horizon (2 to 4 weeks) proprietary measure of

buying interest and selling interest. Like all of our key trend-finder indicators, they are momentum measures. We believe

the best tool to find a medium term trend of 2 percent or more is by following momentum measures. The blue line on our

charts which we present in every newsletter on page 6 represents Demand Power. The red line represents Supply Pres-

sure. Simply, whenever the Blue line crosses above the red line, the odds are very high that a rising trend is starting. An

aggressive trader could consider entering a long position on the date the Blue line crosses over the Red line. A con-

servative trader might want to wait for a decisive crossing before taking a position. Maybe that would be where Demand

Power rises more than 10 points above the Supply Pressure reading, which is the standard we require to trigger a new

medium term trend signal.

Once the Blue line rises above the Red line, we hold our long position. We can always exit at any time, espe-

cially if we have a profit we are satisfied with. However if we want to try and get the maximum out of a move, we can

hold that position until the Blue line drops down and intersects the Red line again. That would be the latest time we

would close the long position. Often, the longer trend has not reversed much when these two lines intersect. Sometimes

the intersection does not mean a new reversal of trend, but merely means a sideways move is coming, thus if we are

holding options (where sideways moves are death due to time decay and expiration dates), we can get out before too

much time decay steals from a paper profit.

A more conservative exit strategy is to take profits once the crossover line stops rising, and starts to decline,

long before intersection occurs. For example, if the Blue line (Demand Power) rises more than 10 points above the Red

line (Supply Pressure), we might have entered a Bullish long position, playing the market to rally. As long as the Blue

line continues to ascend, we hold that position. However, once the Blue line (Demand Power) reaches an apex, and

begins a noticeable descent, we can then take profits. We might miss more rally, but we might not, as we might be

catching close to maximum profits. For sure with this strategy, we have reduced risk of losing a profitable position al-

ready in hand.

Should the Red line (Supply Pressure) rise decisively above the Blue line, we would consider that an entry sig-

nal to take a short position, if so inclined. We could buy put options at that point, or a leveraged short ETF position. We

would then hold that position, playing the market to decline, until the Red line (Supply Pressure) returns to intersect

again with the Blue line (Demand Power), at which time we want to get out of our short position if we haven’t taken a

profit and gotten out by then. Or as mentioned above, conservative traders could exit once the Red line (Supply Pres-

sure) reaches an apex, and begins to descend, long before the point of intersection.

Another interesting dynamic of this Demand Power / Supply Pressure medium term market-timing trading sys-

tem is that if the Demand Power line (Blue) is above the Supply Pressure line (Red), its measure can actually be drop-

ping, yet the rising trend it forecast will continue. The trend usually stops when the two lines intersect, and is not correla-

tive to whether Demand Power or Supply pressure is rising or falling, per se. In other words, once Demand Power rises

above Supply Pressure, even if the margin is shrinking, the trend could still rise. Conversely, once Supply Pressure is

above Demand Power, even if it starts declining, the trend could remain down until the two lines intersect. Not always,

but some of the time, a consideration for aggressive traders.

Why? Because if Supply Pressure and Demand Power are both declining, however Supply Pressure is dropping

more than Demand Power is falling, then prices will float higher. Same on the reverse. If Supply Pressure is falling, but

Demand Power is falling more steeply, prices will decline.


It is virtually impossible to catch a trend’s life expectancy without a detailed analysis of Demand Power and

Supply Pressure. We provide this information. We have a formula that considers each day’s data, and convert that to

DP and SP measures. We consider price in these calculations, but as or more importantly, we also consider other data,

and the momentum change of that data. In combination, these determine Demand and Supply on any given day.

Again, as stated many times in the past, any body of technical work we present, which is not one of our key

trend-finder indicators, is simply background. We do not trade off cycles, analogs, Elliott Wave analysis, patterns, mov-

ing averages, or Dow Theory. We trade off our momentum key trend-finder indicators: the Purchasing Power Indicators

in combination with the 30 day and 14 day Stochastic indicators (short term time horizon); the Demand Power / Supply

Pressure Indicator (medium term time horizon); and Secondary Trend Indicators (Intermediate term time horizon). We

do long term investing off Primary Trend Indicators.

5. Secondary Trend Indicator (a.k.a. Technical Indicator Index):

This indicator was originally named our Technical Indicator Index. We renamed it our Secondary Trend Indicator

because we wanted the time focus for this indicator to be front and center. This indicator focuses on trends that could

last 3 to 6 months +/-. It is an intermediate term stock market trend identifier. This is a proprietary indicator we have de-

signed after intense research and study of over 200 stock market indicators – measures, patterns, and algorithms. We

did a ton of correlation work and came up with a basket of 8 of the best indicators, that in a certain combination, tell us

the direction the market is taking. The great thing about this indicator is that because it has more of an intermediate term

focus, it ignores a certain amount of short-term noise, and keeps us focused on a higher degree trend for markets than

our PPI or Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicators focus on. This indicator is very useful for trading securities that

do not have significant time risk built into their pricing, like options do. Leverage Index ETFs or non-leveraged ETFs are

a good fit for this signal.

We have been showing the Secondary Trend Indicator for years, and report its level every day in these reports.

Simply, when the STI turns above positive + 5, it suggests there is a high probability for a multi-week, even multi-month

rally to be starting. Conversely, when the STI turns below negative –5, it suggests there is a high probability for a multi-

week or multi-month decline to be starting.

This is our Intermediate Term Trend Indicator, which we present in the schedule on page 2 in every report.

Trade Entry is best soon after the indicator changes to a new signal. If it gets near zero, it can drift above or below the

zero line. Once it moves several points positive or negative, there is greater probability the signal is genuine and a new

trend is starting. If someone wanted to play an entry, we would suggest waiting until the STI moves above positive + 5

for a new buy signal, and below negative –5 for a new sell signal. Trading this indicator probably means holding onto the

investment for several weeks, unless the age background indicators, or your own personal preferences, convince you to

exit sooner. The STI is not an exit signal.

The S&P 500 is overbought when the STI approaches positive + 30, and is oversold when the STI approaches

negative –30. That usually means at least a short-term countertrend move is likely to start at these overbought/oversold

levels, but that countertrend move may not mean the intermediate trend that the STI is watching is over. It could resume

once the STI moves away from its overbought/oversold levels.


6. Primary Trend Indicator: One of the tools we have in our arsenal to identify the status of a Primary Degree trend is a simple analysis of the 14 month moving average versus a Slower moving average calculation, the 5 month MA of the 14 month. It has been terrific at identifying multi-year trends, both up and down. While it sometimes is a little late in generating the buy and sell signals, it triggered a “sell” near the start of Primary degree wave (4) down, in mid 2000. What followed was a two and a half year, 39 percent drop into the wave (4)bottom on October 10th, 2002. It took a while for this indicator to confirm that the rally that started on October 11th, 2002 would in fact be a multi-year primary degree wave up, wave (5) up. But in October 2003, this analytical tool did in fact trigger a Primary Degree “buy” signal, which led to a four year further rally to new all-time nominal highs on October 11th, 2007 at 14,198.10.

We require a 5 month moving average of the Spread between the Fast and Slow to reverse in a new direction for 3 consecutive months in order to declare that a new primary trend, a new multi-year trend, is underway. To generate the previous Buy signal back in May 2010, the spread between the Fast and the Slow went positive in January 2010 for the first time in 20 months. March 2010 generated the first of the three required consecutive positive readings in the 5 month moving average for a long-term Buy signal, April 2010 generated the second, and May 2010 generated the third, when a new Buy signal was triggered six years ago. However, the spread fell to negative – 49 on January 31st, 2016, and was followed by negative spread levels each month since, creating a new long-term Sell signal as of May 31st, 2016. That series of negative spreads was broken in August 2016, and October 2016 was the third positive spread in a row, hence the new Buy signal October 31st.

There had been only five signals since 1997 before the Buy signal in October 2016, so this tool is useful for long-term investors, as it filters out the noise of up and down corrections of significance in favor of the primary trend. September 2008 was the third signal, May 2010’s was the fourth, the May 2016 signal was the fifth, and October 2016’s Buy was the sixth in 20 years.

This chart is useful for our Conservative Balanced Investment Portfolio since once we get a new signal, in the past we have been able to rely upon that signal for years. Further, it tells us which direction surprises are likely to occur, so when playing speculative options or futures, we will know the direction where a surprise trend turn is most likely. Knowledge of the primary trend is also useful for trading. In this case, we can be more aggressive when entering a position in the same direction as the primary trend, and less aggressive when entering a short-term trend play against the primary trend.

Phi Mate Turn Dates:

A Phi Mate turn date is a cycle turn date that identifies high probability tops or bottoms within a week

or so, based upon an historic observation that tops or bottoms tend to occur a Fibonacci number of trading

days from a previous top or bottom that correlates at a Phi ratio, 0.618, or the value 1.0 minus Phi, 0.382,

from the all-time inflation adjusted top in the Dow Industrials, in terms of Gold’s value in U.S. Dollars, January

11th, 2000.


“Behold, I stand at the door and knock;

if anyone hears My voice and opens the door,

I will come in to him and will dine with him, and he with Me.”

Jesus Christ, Revelation 3:20

“Now to Him Who is able to do exceedingly,

Abundantly beyond all we ask or think,

According to the power that works within us.”

Ephesians 3:20

“And my God shall supply all your needs,

According to His riches in glory in Christ Jesus.”

Philippians 4:19

“And we know that God causes all things to work together for good

to those who love God,

to those who are called according to His purpose.”

Romans 8:28


Be Prepared for What is Coming, for

What is starting now,

in Global and U.S. Markets.

It may not be what you think; it will not

be what the Federal Reserve and Wall

Available at www.amazon.com , Dr. McHugh’s new Best Seller ,

The Coming Economic Ice Age, Five Critical Steps to Survive and Prosper.

This is a book you will want to give to those you care about.

Buy it Direct from amazon.com at http://tinyurl.com/lypv47v

Robert McHugh Ph.D. is President and CEO of Main Line Investors, Inc., and can

be reached at www.technicalindicatorindex.com. The statements, opinions, buy

and sell signals, and analyses presented in this newsletter are provided as an

impersonal general information and education service only. Opinions, estimates,

buy and sell signals, and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment

of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.

The information contained in the newsletter is expressed in good faith, but its

accuracy is not guaranteed. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to

be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon

in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment de-

cision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other

appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any

investment. Neither Main Line Investors, Inc. nor Robert D. McHugh, Jr., Ph.D. Editor shall be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based

upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Copyright 2021,

Main Line Investors, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

“Jesus said to them, “I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me

shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.

For I have come down from heaven,

For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds

the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;

and I Myself will raise him up on the last day.”

John 6: 35, 38, 40

If you are enjoying your subscription, please tell a friend.

Let them know about our free — one time — 30 day trial subscription.

Here are the symbols for Exchange Traded Funds for the Major Indices:

This is not trading advice. We recommend you conduct your own research and consult

with your investment advisor before entering into any trades with these instruments.

DIA Dow Industrials IYT Trannies

SPY S&P 500 GDX HUI Amex Gold Bugs*

QQQ NASDAQ 100 GLD Gold

IWM Russell 2000 SLV Silver

EWA Australia UUP U.S. Dollar

USO U.S. Oil TLT U.S. Bonds

UDOW Ultra Pro Dow 30 3X (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% of Daily Move)

UPRO Ultra Pro S&P 500 3X (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% of Daily Move)

TQQQ Ultra Pro QQQ NDX 100 3X (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% of Daily Move)

NUGT Direxion Gold Miners 3X (Leveraged ETF Targeting 300% of Daily Move)

* Note: The GDX actually tracks the GDM, a grouping of 45 mining stocks, but the GDX has

very high correlation to the HUI so we mention that as a suitable ETF for the HUI.


Here’s the color coded, legend we use for our Elliott Wave count symbols, starting from the largest degree waves to the smallest:

Impulse Waves Corrections

Grand Supercycle {1} to {V} {A} to {C}

Supercycle (I) to (V) (A) to (C) Cycle I to V A to C

Primary (1) to (5) (A) to (C

Intermediate 1 to 5 A to C

Minor 1 to 5 a to c

Minuette i to v a to c

Micro 1 to 5 a to c

Subnmicro {1} to {5} {a} to {c}

Nano {1} to {5} {a} to {c}

“For I know the plans I have for you," declares the LORD,

"plans to prosper you and not to harm you,

plans to give you hope and a future.”

Jeremiah 29:11

If you are enjoying your subscription, please tell a friend.

Let them know about our free — one time — 30 day trial subscription.

Here are some symbols for Exchange Traded Funds for Going Short the Major Indices:

(These instruments should rise in value as prices decline)

This is not trading advice. We recommend you conduct your own research and consult

with your investment advisor before entering into any trades with these instruments.

DXD Dow Industrials (2X) SH S&P 500

PSQ NASDAQ 100 RWM Russell 2000

TBT Long-term U.S. Treasuries UDN U.S. Dollar

DGZ Gold ZSL Silver

SDOW Ultra Pro Short Dow 30 (Leveraged Targets 300 % Daily Move)

SPXU Ultra Pro Short S&P 500 (Leveraged Targets 300 % Daily Move)

SQQQ Ultra Pro Short QQQ NASDAQ 100 (Leveraged Targets 300 % Daily Move)


u.s. daily market forecasting and trading report an

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