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August 5, 2020 U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS IRI Growth Consulting

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Page 1: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

August 5, 2020

U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS

IRI Growth Consulting

Page 2: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

CPG Growth LeadersWhich CPG companies are winning in the U.S. and why?

Eighth year reporting in partnership with BCGFirst to compare public and private CPG company performance

430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1

Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies:• Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales• Top 15 midsize: $1.0—$5.5B sales• Top 15 small: $100M—$1B sales

Disaggregation of the companies’ underlying performance

1. Multi-outlet and convenience (MULOC) retailers are defined as food, drug, mass, Walmart, club (excluding Costco), dollar, military, and convenience

Page 3: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3

DisaggregationGrowth Metrics

Dollar Sales % Change Growth contribution due to distribution vs. productivity

Volume Sales % Change Growth due to volume vs. pricingPrice increases analyzed by true price vs. mix shift

Dollar Share Point Change Percent portfolio gaining, holding and losing share Category dynamics (e.g., category trends, portfolio concentration)

1

We Use a Composite Growth Index to Understand Who is Winning

2

3

Source: IRI and BCG analysis

Page 4: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4

2019 GrowthLeaders

Page 5: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5

2019 CPG Growth Leader RankingsReturning and New Companies in the Top Rankings

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Large Companies Mid-Size Companies Small Companies

1

1. Fairlife acquisition completed by Coca Cola in January 2020.

Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.

New to List vs. 2018 New to List vs. 2012-182018 Growth Leader

Page 6: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6

#1 Growth Category Brand 1 ($M) Brand 2 ($M) Brand 3 ($M) Top 3 Sales

Combined Contribution %Top 3 GrowthCombined Contribution %

Beer +$380 +$118 +$22 71% 108%

Skincare +$90 +$86 +$51 42% 64%

Breakfast-Frozen & Meat +$166 +$108 +$24 52% 127%

Pet Food & Treats +$335 +37 +$29 13% 117%

OTC Medication +$125 +$118 +$100 22% 30%

Chocolate Candy +$176 +$34 +$30 30% 110%

Cookies +$92 +$63 +$47 40% 128%

Gum +$97 +$65 +$50 29% 56%

Salty Snacks +$148 +$83 +$33 35% 178%

Cream / Creamers +$48 +$30 +$27 31% 139%

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

Large Growth LeadersBrands That Drove Sales Growth

INDICATES TOP 3 BRANDS GROWTH EXCEEDED OVERALL COMPANY SALES GROWTH

1

Note: 2019 year-over-year sales growth in US$ / 1. Coffee creamer contributed ~70% of growth.

New to List vs. 2018 New to List vs. 2012-182018 Growth Leader

Page 7: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7

E-Commerce as a Growth Engine

Focused On Emerging Trends

Surgical Pricing Across Portfolio

Acquisitions Supplemented by

Innovation

1 2 3 4

2019's Large Growth Leaders Have Driven Sustained Growth Since 2014, Leveraging Several Common Drivers

2014-2019 Revenue CAGR Growth for Large Companies

Top 10 Growth Leaders

Others

1.7%

0.5%

3+xKey Growth Drivers

Deep Dives On Coming Pages

Page 8: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8

More Large Leaders Drove 2019 Performance Organically

3% 1%

9% 19%

53% 85%

8% 100%

0% 1%

7% 15%

2% 12%

5% -2%

3% 7%

54% >100%

Acquisition % of Portfolio

2019 $M vs. YA (% of growth) Leading Acquisitions

-7

63

10

342

261

477 480

51

3

287

1

1,133 15

217184 33

337

19

358

138

323

-14 89

1,148

343

157

351

148

75

138

Acquired1 Declining AcqusitionLegacy

Acquisition % of Total Growth

Note: Based on acquisitions made in last five years (since 2014) / Source: IRI POS data ending 12/30/18. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis.

Acquisitions Supplemented by Innovation1

Page 9: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9

Investment / JV

Acquired

Year

of A

cqui

sitio

n

Acceleration in Acquisition and Investment in Small Growth LeadersSmall Growth Leaders Acquired Since 2012

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192012

Acquisitions Supplemented by Innovation1

Page 10: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10

Top 10 Large Growth Leaders Decreased in Volume Overall(vs. Prior Years Where Volume Increased)

Large CompaniesVolume and Price Contribution

5.4

3.3

2.3

-4.6

-0.6

-0.2

-2.1

-0.6

-0.7

1.9

3.7

0.5

8.5

3.1

2.2

5.1

2.4

2.0

2.5

0.8

2.1

4.5

7.3

3.4

2.7

3.9

3.0

1.7

1.3

Volume % Chg vs. YA Price/Mix % Chg vs. YA

Top 10 Large Growth LeadersOnly top 4 increased volume

-2.8

4.0

2.9All Others

Top 10 3.3

0.1

-0.6

Price/Mix % Chg vs. YAVolume % Chg vs. YA

2.9%Top 4 vol.

growth

-2.5%6-10 vol. decline

Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B / Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis

Surgical Pricing Across Portfolio2

Page 11: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11

P&G Drove Value with Price IncreasesVALUE

We’re looking, as we innovate, to be

able to modestly [increase] price and still build value.

- Jon Moeller, Vice Chairman, COO, CFO, Q4 Earnings call

P&G executed surgical pricing increases across portfolio

to drive value4.2%

4.1%

7.1%

4.6%

Top Categories by Sales Growth and Corresponding ASP Increase1

Examples of ASP Changes at SKU Level

Baby Wipes

Toilet Tissue

Paper Towels

0.5%

0.5%

Diapers

Laundry Care 2.8%

Deodorant

Air Fresheners

Cold/Allergy/Sinus Liquids

0.6%

2.3%Cold/Allergy/Sinus Tablets

3.0%Gastrointestinal - Liquid

$804 M

$614 M

$544 M

$193 M

$58 M

$29 M

$28 M

$26 M

$24 M

$21 M

Sales Growth ASP Growth

12 roll

1. Same SKUs with volume above 10k both 2019 and 2018. Excludes new and discontinued SKUs

2. Sales growth for Bounty Select a Size 12-roll SKU exceeded overall Bounty brand growth due to partial

cannibalization for smaller pack sizes.

2018 ASP: $13.412019 ASP: $13.55YoY Sales Growth:

+$36M

2018 ASP: $18.022019 ASP: $18.84YoY Sales Growth:

+$128M2

30 oz

• Driven by consumer insight and competitive landscape

• ASP increase differed by category; 38 of 56 categories saw an ASP increase relative to prior year

Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C). IRI Consulting and BCG analysis.

Surgical Pricing Across Portfolio2

Page 12: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

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VALUEDigital Shelf Growth Leader Winners Deploy a Consistent Approach• Restructuring channel operations and merchandising

to ensure right SKUs are available• Optimizing digital shelf / marketing for pre-purchased

in store pick ups at key retailers• Leveraging investment in trade marketing in an

e-commerce setting (e.g., banner ads on Amazon)• Investing in a digital commerce organization (CoE or

dedicated digital teams)• Having a dedicated brand store optimized for user

experience (DTC considerations)

of CPG portfolio in 2020

eCommerce is growing in significance –

especially after COVID estimated

~14%

Source: IRI Consulting analysis..

~4-5%

~10%

eComm penetration as % of CPG sales

GL DTC Store Examples

E-Commerce as a Growth Engine3

1014

2019 2020 2021

~16-18Series 1

Page 13: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

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Multi-Functional Beverages

Beverages offering superior hydration or energy through simpler and cleaner ingredients

Protein On-the-Go

Quicker and easier options to meet daily protein needs

Better-for-You Snacking

Healthier versions of traditional snacks

Premium / Natural Self-Care

Willingness to pay a premium to take care of body and/or household

Simple & Transparent

Natural, organic, minimal ingredients

Hispanic-Focused

Geared toward growing Hispanic population emphasizing heritage

Winning Manufacturers and Brands are Tapping into Evolving Consumer Trends

Source: IRI Consulting and BCG analysis.

Deep Dive in Subsequent PagesNew in 2019

Focused On Emerging Trends4

Page 14: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

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Multi-Functional Beverages Are Outpacing Traditional Sugary Alternatives

Growth Leader ExamplesMulti-functional beverages provide

consumers with many nutritional benefits

Energy

Hard Seltzer

11%6%6%

17%11%

6%

2%0%

-1%-1%-2%

Refrigerated Teas

232%Hard Seltzer

Sports Drinks

Refrigerated Coffee

Seltzer/Sparkling/Mineral

Energy DrinksIced Coffee

Regular Soft DrinksRfg Juices/Drinks

Drink MixesCanned And Bottled Tea

Bottled Juices

2019 YOY growth (%)Hard Seltzer

Energy

Sugary Alternatives

HydrationHydration

Source: IRI ILD POS database, MULOC. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis

Focused On Emerging Trends4

Page 15: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

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VALUEWhite Claw Capitalizes on Convenience

YoY growth

Convenient, personalized, and better for you, driving

300%+

Source: IRI MULOC; BCG and IRI Consulting analysis

57

20172016 2018 2019

10194

834

+449%+241%

+330%

Distribution1

Velocity2

35

$31

45

$113

60

$277

76

$804

White Claw Growth Trajectory2014-2019 Retail Sales, $M

Multifunctional ConvenienceEasily transportable product (slim, 12 oz. can) with advertising campaigns that highlight consumption in a variety of occasions

Personalized FlavorFlavored with clean and simple fruit based flavors, available in variety packs to appeal to varied tastes and occasions

Better-for-You Won drinkers from other alcohol categories with light, healthier alternative (100 calories only relative to beer); significant growth also coming from wine & spirits drinkers

1 – Max ACV Wtd Distribution, 2 – Dollars per $MM ACV

Focused On Emerging Trends4

Page 16: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16

Protein On-the-Go: Ready-to-Eat and Convenient Offerings Driving Market Growth

6%

5%

5%Nutritional Health Bars

Frozen Breakfast Entrees

Dried Meat Snacks

Refrigerated Meat / Cheese / Snack

Frozen Breakfast Handheld

2019 YOY growth (%)

Growth Leader Examples:

Exemplar Set of Growth Driving Brands by Sub-Category

Snacking

Breakfast

Old trapper

Growth Leader Brand YoY Growth %

Hillshire snacking

One Brands

Jimmy Dean Delights

Jimmy Dean Delights

+24%

+25%

+57%

+25%

+27%

Jimmy Dean +7%

Jimmy Dean +4%

Sub-Category Growth

7%

2%

Source: IRI ILD POS database, MULOC. IRI Consulting and BCG analysis

Focused On Emerging Trends4

Page 17: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17

2020 MarketTrends

Page 18: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18

COVID-19 Boosts Moderate CPG Demand GrowthCPG Sales Growth / % Change vs. YA

Moderate CPG growth pre-COVID-19 driven by rising price / mix

Elevated demand post-COVID-19 due to more time at home

Changing shopping behaviors, consumer demand, and in-store environment after COVID-19

20142012 20162015 20172013 2018 2019 2020 Pre

COVID

2020 Peak

COVID

2020 Post

COVID

3.0%1.7%

2.5%3.0%

1.5% 1.4%2.0% 2.3%

1.7%

30.3%

12.1%

2.9% 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 0.8%Price/Mix 1.4% 1.9%

Volume 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1%

Dollars

2.5%

-0.2%

2.4%

-0.7%

1.8%

28.0%

4.5%

7.2%

2020

Note: Pre COVID-19 8 w/e 2/23/20, Peak COVID-19 4 w/e 3/22/20, Post COVID-19 w/e 7/5/20. Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C), WE 7/5/20. IRI Consulting analysis.

Page 19: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19

Unprecedented Changes in Consumer Behavior Since the Start of the Pandemic, Resulting in Sales Gaps as Large as 10-15% Between Competitors

15-20% sales increases for some categories while other

categories are down 5-10% due to shifting consumer behaviors

10-15% increase in basket sizes based on shifts to larger packs

and volume price increases

10-15% drop in total store UPC counts due to out-of-stocks,

reduced product ranges and to facilitate shopping

30-40% new buyers for most brands during the

pandemic due to shifting behaviors and limited product availability

2-5 share point growth for e-commerce, grocery and

discounter channels; CPG e-commerce sales are up ~80% in the last 13 weeks

15-20% out-of-stocks for certain categories due to

supply chain disruptions

Page 20: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Lifestyle trends that are

creating new usage patterns

are likely to persist beyond the pandemic

including increased focus on hygiene and

sanitation, studying and working from

home, self-care and minimal

business travel.

Lifestyle Shifts

Consumers required to stay

at home are increasing

consumption in certain

categories (e.g., Laundry, Alcohol), while

other categories are down where usage is more closely tied to out-of-home

activities (e.g., Dry Cleaning, Visiting Bars).

Food brands and retailers

experienced a significant

number of new and lapsed

buyers based on shifting

consumption behaviors and limited product

availability, which has disrupted historical

consumption patterns.

Even with countries

opening up, consumers are still exercising caution before

returning to normal social activities. This behavior will likely remain

until the threat of additional COVID-19

waves fades based on a vaccine or treatment.

Traditional demand spikes due to holidays, vacations and

celebratory events are subdued as events are

postponed and cancelled,

consumers are reluctant to travel, and

groups aren’t gathering for

holidays or large celebrations.

Changing consumer and

shopping behaviors led to significant

growth in e-commerce, click & collect,

grocery delivery and direct-to-

consumer sales, which are likely to keep growing

at an accelerated

pace even after countries exit lockdowns.

Governments will most likely continue to use

economic stimulus to prop up economies,

which could create future

demand surges. Elections and other events,

such as Brexit, could impact the pandemic containment

and economic recovery.

Global unemployment

is impacting disposable income and

creating severe financial strain and uncertainty

for some households while other

industries and households are economically untouched.

Depending on consumer

behavior and government

mandates, it’s likely there will be a pandemic resurgence in

some countries. Experts are predicting a

second wave, which could lead to more

stockpiling and increased CPG consumption.

In-Home Consumption

ConsumerTrial

ConsumerSentiment

Holidays / Occasions

ChannelShifts

GovernmentEvents

Unemployment PandemicPersistence

Nine Complex Interdependent Factors That Are Impacting Your Ability to Forecast the Future and Capture 3-5 Share Points Growth

Page 21: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21

E-Commerce, Grocery and Value Channels Accelerated Post COVID-19Total CPG $ Share by Channel: Before, During, After Stockpiling Peak

31.2

32.8

22.1

20.2

14.2

13.3

12.7

15.6

8.9

8.4

4.7

3.7 2.2

4.3

3.8

1.9

AllOther

Pre-COVID-19

Post-COVID-19

eCom DollarMass DrugClubConv.Grocery

-1.0

+0.3

-0.5+1.6 -1.9 -0.9 +2.9 -0.5

Note: Top All Other retailers include Specialty Stores, Liquor, Pet, and Military. eCommerce sales are collected via 204 tracked categories, with share scaled up to match coverage of total store.

Source: IRI POS, Panel, and E-Market Insights Data. Pre COVID-19 8 weeks ending 2/23/20, Post COVID-19 8 weeks ending 5/17/20.

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22

Demand is Higher for Frozen Foods and Cleaning Products and Variable in Other Areas Stock-Up / Replenishment Matrix / Dollar Sales % Chg vs YA – MULO+C

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

20 120-20 60400 80 100

Office/School Supplies

P4 - Week Ending 6/14/20 vs YA

Baby Care

Drink Mixes

Non-Fruit Drinks

Frozen Meat/Poultry/Seafood

Personal Cleansing Paper Products

Frozen Baked Goods

Frozen Beverages

Refrigerated Meats

Frozen Fruits & Vegetables

Breakfast

Frozen Meals

Water

Frozen SnacksOther Frozen

Baby Food

Baking

Condiments & Sauces

Ethnic

Cosmetics

Meals

Ss Vegetables

First Aid

Fragrance

Other Refrigerated

Refrigerated Dough

Grooming Supplies

Automotive

Barbecue

Household Plastics/Storage

Ss Fruit

Small Appliance

Water Treatment

Hosiery

Feminine ProductsHealth Remedies

P3 4 Weeks Ending 3/22/20 vs YA

Household CleaningMiscellaneous General Merch

HIGH STOCK UP

"Necessities" High Stock-Up/

High Replenishment

HIG

H RE

PLEN

ISH

MEN

T

"Quarantine Needs" Low Stock-Up/

Elevated Replenishment

"Discretionary"Declining Stock-Up/

Declining Replenishment

"Pantry Stocking"High Stock-Up/

Low Replenishment

Note: Segments based on IRI Standard "Aisles“. Source: IRI POS data Week Ending June 14, 2020

Beverages

General Food

Frozen

Liquor

Refrigerated

Beauty

General Merchandise

Health

Home Care

Tobacco

Page 23: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23

2.3 2.6

15.1

2.5 1.8

7.3

Expect Measured Channels CPG Sales to Remain Elevated Through 2021, Driven by Lingering Stay-at-Home BehaviorsCPG $ Sales % Chg. vs. YA Actual & Forecast –Multi-Outlet (MULO+C)

Assumes no major national quarantine event after March –May 2020 / Source: IRI Strategic Analytics proprietary forecasting models, IRI Growth Consulting analysis.

EDIBLENONEDIBLE

~12-14~9 to 11

2015-2018CAGR

2019

~3 to 5

2020Rest of

Year

2020 YTD

2021

~-4 to -6~0 to -2

2020Full Year

~4-6

Actual Forecast

Key FactorsLocalized containment if the virus spikes again; no national shut down. Fatigued by quarantine, consumers are going out again; out-of-home consumption occasions begin to recover.• Retail and recreation mobility improved

to -17% vs. pre-COVID-19 vs. -50% at height of pandemic1

• Restaurant spending improved to -33% vs. ~-70% at peak2

• In-home cooking weariness• Foodservice reshape with more delivery,

take-out, drive throughs and outdoor eating• Businesses and schools reopenAs economic stimulus, extra unemployment support run out / decrease, value seeking and in-home consumption increases. Work-from-home will be the norm for higher-risk and conscious segments and many white-collar workers (at least a few days / week)

2020-21 Sales Growth (2-Year CAGR)

Exceeds 2019 growth due to elevated in-home consumption

1. Google Mobility Report Total U.S. retail and recreation mobility as of June 12, 2020. 2. JP Morgan Chase Consumer Card Spending as of June 12, 2020.

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Small Manufacturers Continue to Gain Share, Including Post-COVID-19…% Share of Total Store Sales by CPG Manufacturer Size / Total U.S. Measured Channels (MULO+C)

49.0 47.8 47.1 46.7 46.4 45.7

15.9 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.9 16.1

12.1 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.2

8.3 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.3 9.2

14.6 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.7 15.8

2018

Medium(>$1B)

2020 Post COVID

2015 2019 2020 Peak COVID

2020 Pre COVID

Large(>$5B)

Small (>$100M)

Extra Small($<100M)

Private Label +0.3

+0.1

+0.1

+0.1

-0.7

+0.3

+0.1

+0.1

-0.1

-0.4

+1.1

-0.2

+0.1

-0.1

-0.9

2018-19 vs. YA vs. YA vs. YA

+0.7

+0.5

+0.7

+0.1

-1.8

Note: Note: Large is $5.5B+ in L52W, Medium $1-5.5B, Small $100M-1B and Extra Small <$100M. Pre COVID-19 8 w/e 2/23/20, Peak COVID-19 4 w/e 3/22/20, Post COVID-19 12 w/e 6/14/20.

+0.7

+0.2

+0.4

0.0

-1.2

2015-18

Source: IRI POS Data MULO+C. IRI Consulting Analysis.

Smaller manufacturers

continue to grow at a faster rate

Large manufacturers seeing slower growth

in Convenience channel post-COVID

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…With Similar Trends by Brand Trademark Size% Share of Total Store Sales by CPG Brand Trademark Size / Total U.S. Measured Channels (MULO+C)

39.7 39.0 38.9 38.2 37.4 37.8

12.2 12.3 12.3 12.6 13.1 12.2

18.2 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.1

15.3 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.8 15.1

14.6 15.3 15.6 16.7 15.8

20192015 2018

Large(>$1B)

2020 Pre COVID

2020 Peak COVID

Medium(>$500M

2020 Post COVID

Small (>$100M)

Extra Small($<100M)

Private Label 16.1+0.3

-0.2

+0.1

0.0

-0.1

2018-19 vs. YA vs. YA vs. YA

Note: Note: Large is $1B+ in L52W, Medium $500M-1B, Small $100-500M and Extra Small <$100M. Pre COVID-19 8 w/e 2/23/20, Peak COVID-19 4 w/e 3/22/20, Post COVID-19 12 w/e 6/14/20.

+0.7

-0.8

+0.6

+0.1

-0.7

2015-18

Source: IRI POS Data MULO+C. IRI Consulting Analysis.

Led by smaller hand sanitizer brands

Slower growth for discretionary

categories and pre-stocked brands

+0.3

-0.2

+0.2

+0.1

-0.3

+1.1

-0.6

+0.1

+0.7

-1.4

+1.1

+0.8

+0.2

-0.1

-1.4

Page 26: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

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Rising Stars in 2020 Exhibit Continuing Trends and COVID-19 Winners

Large Companies Mid-Size Companies Small Companies

1

2

3

4

5

1

2

3

4

5

1

2

3

4

5

New to List vs. 2012-192019 Growth Leader

Note: CJ Foods present as Schwan’s in 2019 Growth Leaders ranking. GermX present as ViJon Labs, who also produces private label (not included).

Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B based on L52 Source: IRI data for multi-outlet and convenience (MULO+C), data ending 6/14/20. IRI Consulting analysis.

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#1 Growth Category Brand 1 ($M) Brand 2 ($M) Brand 3 ($M)

Top 3 Sales Combined

Contribution %

Top 3 GrowthCombined

Contribution %

Rfg Dough / Biscuit Dough +$246 +$203 +$141 31% 50%

Household Cleaner +$324 +$144 +$84 35% 103%

Cookies +$96 +$77 +$59 45% 65%

Household Cleaner +$281 +$107 +$69 61% 80%

Fresh Bread & Rolls +$100 +$84 +$71 48% 53%

1

2

3

4

5

Large Brands Drove the Majority of Rising Star’s Performance to Date, as Well as COVID-19 Winners in Baking, Cleaning and Health

Note: 2020 year-to-date sales growth in US$ ending 6/14/20

New to List vs. 2012-182019 Growth Leader

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Supplement acquisition with core innovation across both acquired & owned brands

Increase price surgically by sub-category to counter higher COGS and lower sales volumes

Drive increased e-commerce penetration by deploying consistent approach to win on digital shelf including, Click & Collect

Tap into evolving trends, e.g., protein on-the-go, premium and natural self-care, Hispanic, etc.

Take bold action and reinvest for growth; seek opportunistic acquisitions

Retain new buyers, regain lost buyers via innovation (particularly value, premium-tier products) and

targeted marketing to drive new usage occasions

Reinforce overall value (price, benefits),offer right pack sizes and price points and seek to enhance price / mix through specialty products

Focus on strong distribution in e-commerce and value channels, ensuring products are

physically available where shoppers are

Continue to tap in to evolving trends; focus on building empathy and emotional

connection with consumers

2019Growth Drivers

2020Post-COVID-19

KEYTAKEAWAYS

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Insights and Strategic Guidance for Better DecisionsIRI’s Online Resources Include Real-Time Updates and Weekly Reports That Track the Impact of the Virus on CPG and Retail

The IRI COVID-19 lmpactIncludes COVID-19 impact analyses, dashboards and the latest thought leadership on supply chain, consumer behavior and channel shifts for the U.S. AND international markets.

IRI CPG Economic Indicators, Including the IRI CPG Demand Index™, IRI CPG Supply Index™ and IRI CPG Inflation Tracker™

Accessible through the insights portal to track the daily impact of COVID-19. This includes top-selling and out-of-stock categories across the country and consumer sentiment on social media.

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The Latest COVID-19 Reports and Insights from IRI (click to see full report)

IRI COVID-19 IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORTS RECESSION PROOF YOUR BUSINESS

THE CHANGING SHAPE OF THE CPG DEMAND CURVE

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Want to Be the First to Know?

Registered Users Get New Thought Leadership from IRI’s Research, Data & Analytics Experts

www.iriworldwide.com/en-US/Insights/Subscribe

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Your Feedback is ImportantPlease Complete a Brief Survey

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Confidential and Proprietary. 34

CONTACT US FOR MORE

INFORMATION

Dr. Krishnakumar(KK) DaveyPresident, Strategic [email protected]

Cara LoeysPrincipal, Growth Consulting [email protected]

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Appendix

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© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 36

Large Winning Companies Switch Positions, But Several Players are Frequently in the Top 10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Lorillard

Lorillard Mondelez Intl

Anheuser Busch InBev Mondelez Intl Altria Grp Tyson Foods Tyson Foods

Campbell Soup Dr. Pepper Snapple Grp Keurig Dr Pepper General Mills

Altria Grp Dr. Pepper Snapple Grp Tyson Foods General Mills

Campbell Soup Kimberly-Clark Conagra Brands

Nestle S A Switzerland Mondelez Intl

Imperial Brands

Kimberly-Clark Lorillard Mondelez Intl Inc. Kellogg’s

Campbell Soup Kimberly-Clark Altria

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

#of times on list

6*

6

3

2

5

6

4

6

1

3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

LAR

GE

2019

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

*Constellation Brands appears in mid-sized players prior to 2017 / Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. / Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.

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Many Medium Players Are Also Consistently in the TopM

EDIU

M

Keurig Green Mountain

Keurig Green Mountain

Mead Johnson Nutrition Glaxosmithkline The Wonderful Co. Juul Labs Vital Pharma

Keurig Green Mountain Hostess Hostess Cargill Juul Labs

McKee Foods Energizer Blue Diamond Growers

Mark Anthony Brands

Sterilite Link Snacks Egglands Best Post Boston Beer

Sterilite Hostess Schwan Food

Sterilite Land O Lakes Energizer Driscoll Strawberry

Bic The Wonderful Co. Abbott

Link Snacks Land O Lakes Schwan Food Co. Swedish Match

Link Snacks WH Group Land O Lakes Blue Diamond Growers

Blue Diamond Growers Ferrero USA Hostess Brands

Merck Sanofi Scandinavian Tobacco Foster Farms Blue Diamond

Growers

Snyders Lance Bic ScandinavianTobacco Post Driscoll Strawberry

Spectrum Bic Johnsonville Rank Group Pinnacle Foods Flowers Foods Rank Group

Bayer Pfizer Glaxosmithkline Energizer Flowers Foods

Carlyle Group Tyson Post WH Group Abbott Glaxosmithkline H P Hood

Hain Celestial Sanofi Aventis Lindt Dole Foods Co

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

3*

1

1

25

61

4

4

2

2

211

#of times on list

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

*Juul appears in small-sized players for 2017 / Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. / Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.

Page 38: U.S. CPG GROWTH LEADERS...2020/08/05  · 430+ CPG manufacturers with >$100Msales in measured channels1 Three distinct sets of top CPG winning companies: • Top 10 large: >$5.5B sales

© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 38

Talking Rain Bev Co Kind Quest Nutrition Bodyarmor SuperDrink Pax Labs (Juul) Vital Pharma Njoy

Paris Presents Skinny Pop Eden Creamery Harry’s Bodyarmor Nutrition

Handi Foil Talking Rain Bev Co Kind Fairlife Bragg Live Foods Pastificio Rana Spa Bodyarmor Nutrition Pastificio Rana Spa

Gryphon Investors Old World Ind eos Bai Brands Bai Brands Bragg Live Foods Lamb Weston Baker Mills

Vogue INTL Talenti Pastificio Rana Spa

YoCrunch Materne Schreiber Foods Country Creek Farms Califia Farms Bodyarmor Nutrition Global Water Tech KT & G

All Market All Market Noosa Yoghurt Handi Foil Global Water Tech

Panera Bread Kind Old Trapper Kiss Kiss

Shurtape Tech Njoy Materne All Market Pete and Gerry's Natrol

National Fish & Seafood Aqua Star Advanced Beauty Fairlife Core Natural Sovos Brands Rao’s Lamb Weston

Roll Philips Electronics Paris Presents Kiss Foundation ConsumerHealthcare Old Trapper

Advanced Beauty Sys. Completely Fresh Foods Palermo Villa The Fishin' Co PDC Brands Swiss Precision

DiagnosticsFoundation Consumer Healthcare

Applegate Farms Mobil Corp Ready Pac Foods QuestNutrition American International Fairlife

Clif Bar Mobil Corp Applegate Farms Adv. Fresh Concepts Ready Pac Hisamitsu Pharm. Milos Tea

Kens Foods Atkins Nutritionals Aqua Star Icelandic Milk & Skyr Corp. Kiss Glanbia

Few Small Companies Have Consistently Led

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Note: Extra Small = <$100M, Small = <$1B Medium = $1B-$5.5B, Large >5.5B. / Source: IRI MULO+C POS data. IRI Consulting & BCG analysis.

233181

2

4

1

2

2

23

1

#of times on list

0

SMAL

L

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019