URBANIZATION AND URBAN SPRAWL

• Low density development but large spatial extent

• Can we target areas for conservation that promote resilience?

• Need information on areas that are likely to become urbanized in the future

NY DEC

WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE SIMULATING?

1993

2010

WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE SIMULATING?

SLEUTH IS

• Cellular Automaton Model• Use historic rates of urbanization (from imagery) to

calibrate model• Simulate urban growth based on physical and social

constraints and proximity to existing urban and transportation

• Monte Carlo-based simulation allows for probabilistic projections

What

WhatProjections of future urbanization

esri grid format 60m resolution urban, exurbanvalue representing bins of probability

About SLEUTH:USGS / UCSBCellular Automaton

Spatial ProcessHistoric dataGrowth rules

SpontaneousNew SpreadingEdge GrowthRoad-influenced

Calibrated and predicted on modified USCB Combined Statistical Areas

Road Density as proxy for Suburban Growth

HOW WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS

SLEUTH simulates spread of road density and therefore urbanization

HOW WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS

NLCD URBANCLASS

LOWER BOUND ROAD DENSITY

UPPER BOUND ROAD DENSITY

HOW WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS

What SLEUTH Doesn’t Do

Include detailed parcel level infoDirectly incorporate pop/demographic models to get at density/ housing demand

Does allow for policy input through exclusion/resistance layers

When201020202030204020502060

Appalachian

Southeast Regional Assessment ProjectGulf Coastal Plain and Ozarks

Where

Questions

Questions/Comments

Questions or comments from presentation about the SLEUTH model or about our data products in general?

Questions or comments in general about the SALCC, what we’re doing, where we’re going, etc.?

Contacts

Ken McDermond – ken_mcdermond@fws.gov

Rua Mordecai – rua@southatlanticlcc.orgJanet Cakir – janet_cakir@nps.govAmy Keister – amy_keister@fws.govLaurie Rounds – laurie.rounds@noaa.govGinger Deason –

ginger@southatlanticlcc.org