Urban Spatial Growth: the Case of Bangladesh

M. Shahidul Islam Research Fellow, Institute of Governance

Studies, BRAC UniversityMohammad Nasir Uddin khan

Senior Research Associate, Research and Evaluation Division, BRAC

Spatial concentration of economic activities, fundamental forces

• Urban economists define a city as a spatial concentration of economic activities.

• Key determinants of spatial structure of economic activity: low transport costs and increasing returns to scale in production.

• Rather than growing in parallel, regions /cities have a tendency to grow in sequence – the phenomenon is widely captured in cross country studies;

• Out of 858 Chinese cities, 14 generate 33 percent of China’s GDP (Mckinsey, 2011);

Urbanisation and unbalanced growth: theory and literature

• Factors influence unbalanced or lumpy growth: history, location, migration, economies of scale/agglomeration economics, range of preference grants by central government (EPZ, for instance), market access, quality of public service, and urban bias;

• Theoretical explanations of unbalanced growth: the existence of increasing returns to scale

- New Economic Geography developed (Krugman, 1991): the importance of locational fundamentals;

- physical landscape, such as temperature, rainfall, access to the sea, the presence of natural resources.

The case of Bangladesh• Urban growth in Bangladesh is apparently following a similar trend that economic mountains are concentrated in few places;

The big picture: Bangladesh and its immediate neighbourhood at night (the brightest areas of the Earth are the most urbanized, but not necessarily the most populated)

Rationale and methodology of the study• Rationale: Policy bias, high opportunity cost of scarce resources• Methodology:• Definition of urban area:• Population Census 2001:

Four distinct classes on the basis of their functions and sizes: megacity, statistical metropolitan area (SMA), municipality area and other urban area;

• Bangladesh Population & Housing Census 2011: urban area corresponds: metalled roads, improved communication, electricity, gas, water supply, sewerage, sanitation and also having comparatively higher density of population with majority population in non-agricultural occupations.

• Urban areas are classified into three categories:• City Corporation; Paurashava/Municipality Area; Other Urban Area

The settlement pattern of urban population in Bangladesh and other developing countries

Identification of top urban districts• We indentify the following variables that could explain trends, pattern and

differences of urbanisation in various districts in 64 districts of Bangladesh:

• Share of urban population in total population (r_shareup)• Population density (r_dens)• Share of immigrants in total population (r_immper)• Size of urban population (r_popsz)• Area (r_area)• Per capita GDP (r_percgdp)• Off-farm per capita income (r_ofpercapy)• Manufacturing share in GDP (r_mamugdp)• Total number of manufacturing and services establishments (r_alsecamnt)• Total unit of manufacturing establishments (r_manuamnt)• Employment in total establishments (r_alsecemp)• Employment in manufacturing establishments (r_manuemp)

Data Source: Population Census 2001, BBS and Economic Census 2003, BBS.

Top 20 urban districts (based on Population Census 2001, BBS and Economic Census 2003, BBS.

District RankDHAKA 1

NARAYANGANJ 2

CHITTAGONG 3

KHULNA 4

GAZIPUR 5

JESSORE 6

SYLHET 7

RAJSHAHI 8

NARSINGDI 9

MYMENSINGH 10

BOGRA 11

BARISAL 12

TANGAIL 13

BRAHMANBARIA 14

KISHOREGANJ 15

COX'S BAZAR 16

JAMALPUR 17

JHENAIDAH 18

NATORE 19

CHUADANGA 20

strong correlation between location of industrial and services establishments and the ranking of urban districts, top 5 districts constitute 45% of

establishments, Dhaka alone 25%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

DHAKA

CHITTAGONG

NARAYANGANJ

KHULNA

GAZIPUR

RAJSHAHI

SYLHET

JESSORE

MYMENSINGH

BOGRA

Economic est. share (%)

Top 50 urban centres

Concentration of urban centers

Top urban districts (based on 2011 Population Census data)

Pattern 1 (Urbanization rate and population density, above National average)

Pattern 2 (Urbanization rate (above 20% and density (900 plus, per sq km)

Pattern 3 (Population density above national average)

Pattern 4 (Urbanization rate above national average)

DhakaChittagongNarayangonjRajshahiGazipur

DhakaChittagongNarayanganjKhulnaRajshahiGazipurChuadanga

Dhaka, NarayanganjNarsingdi, GazipurComilla, Brahmanbaria, ChandpurFeni, ChittagongMunshiganjSirajganj, KushtiaLakshmipurRangpurNilphamari, BograMymensinghGaibandhaKishoreganjRajshahiJessore

Dhaka Chittagong KhagrachoriKhulnaNarayanganjRajshahiGazipurChuadangaRangamatiBandarban

Top Urban Districts (based on 2011 Population Census data)

Pattern 5 (Change in population 20% and above, between 2001 and 2011)

Pattern 6 (Urbanizationrate, change in ranking of top 10 districts, between 2001 and 2011)

Pattern 7 (Population density, Change in ranking of top 10 districts, between 2001 and 2011)

Bogra, NoakhaliCox's BazarSylhet, FeniComilla, ChandpurKishoreganj, SirajganjBrahmanbaria , NetrokonaBarisal , JessoreNarsingdi, HabiganjKhagrachari, TangailNaogaon, NilphamariDinajpur, JhenaidahMymensingh

Chittagong KhagrachariJhalokatiPirojpurFeniChandpurKishoreganjNoakhaliJhenaidahBrahmanbaria

NarsingdiGazipurBrahmanbariaChandpurKushtiaLakshmipurGaibandhaKishoreganjRajshahiPabna

Urbanisation: solid vs least

ChittagongGazipur

Rajshahi

Dhaka

Narayanganj

Barguna

Rangpur

Panchagarh

Rangamati

MymansinghFeniChandpur

SunamganjHabiganjGaibandhaMadaripurMeherpur

BandarbanBhola

Comilla

ThakurgaonJaipurhat

Begerhat

PirojpurTangail C'dangaBogra

KhagrachariPatuakhaliRajbariKishoreganj

MaulvibazarNaogaonShariatpur

Munshiganj

Cox's bazarSatkhira

KushtiaC'Nawabganj

B'baria

GopalgonjSylhet

NilphamariMagura

KhulnaDinazpurJhalokatiJamalpurNoakhaliSherpurLalmonirhatManikganjFaridpurPabnaKurigramNatore

Sirajganj

Narsingdi

JhenaidahNetrokonaJessoreLakshmipur

Narail Barisal

020

0040

0060

0080

00D

NST

-201

1

0 20 40 60 80UR-2011

SYLHET

RANGAMATI

BOGRA

TANGAIL

PABNA

DINAJPUR

NAOGAON

COMILLA

MYMENSINGH

JESSORE

SUNAMGANJ

NATORRAJSHAHI

RANGPUR

SIRAJGANJ

FARIDPUR

JAMALPUR

GAZIPUR

KUSHTIA

FENI

KISHOREGANJ

SHERPUR

RAJBARI

KHULNA

BANDARBAN

CHITTAGONGSATKHIRA

HABIGANJ

NETRAKONA

BHOLA

BAGERHAT

KURIGRAM

DHAKA

GAIBANDHA

MOULVI BAZAR

JHENAIDAH

NOAKHALI

CHANDPURKHAGRACHHARI

COX'S BAZAR

NAWABGANJ

NILPHAMARI

GOPALGANJ

THAKURGAON

NARAIL

MAGURA

BRAHMANBARIA

MANIKGANJ

BARISAL

NARSINGDI

PANCHAGARH

SHARIATPUR

LAKSHMIPUR

MADARIPUR

CHUADANGA

LALMONIRHAT

JOYPURHAT

MUNSHIGANJ

MEHERPUR

PATUAKHALI

PIROJPUR

BARGUNA

NARAYANGANJ

JHALAKATI

¯

BAY OF BENGAL

Urabanization in Bangladesh, 2011

INDIA

INDIA

INDIA

LegendurbanizationStudy_Area

Least urban 33

Solid urban: 5

Upcoming 20

Other urban 6

Districts to watch (by group)

Concentration of new urban population4.7 million new urban population added during 2001-2011

1.52

0.53

0.32 0.31 0.280.23

0.14 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Million

share

Some broad patterns• First, there is an overwhelming primacy of Dhaka. • Second: Geography is a strong determinant of urbanisation in

Bangladesh-– Top urban districts are located in the east of the two major rivers Ganges and

Brahmaputra (the divisions of Chittagong, Sylhet and most of Dhaka) have much higher concentration of urban activities than those that are in the west of Brahmaputra and South of Ganges (Divisions of Rajshahi, Khulna, Barisal and the districts that are located on the other side of the Ganges).

• However, some districts of the west have performed well in the past decade

• Third: urbanisation is heavily skewed to Dhaka and Chittagong, making it the country’s prime urban corridor

• Fourth: Chittagong division has experienced more balanced urbanisation- almost all of its districts are relatively more urbanized-either in terms of urbanisation rate or population density;

Dhaka’s primacy

East-West divide remains, but some districts in the West are catching-up

SYLHET

RANGAMATI

BOGRA

TANGAIL

PABNA

DINAJPUR

NAOGAON

COMILLA

MYMENSINGH

JESSORE

SUNAMGANJ

NATORRAJSHAHI

RANGPUR

SIRAJGANJ

FARIDPUR

JAMALPUR

GAZIPUR

KUSHTIA

FENI

KISHOREGANJ

SHERPUR

RAJBARI

KHULNA

BANDARBAN

CHITTAGONGSATKHIRA

HABIGANJ

NETRAKONA

BHOLA

BAGERHAT

KURIGRAM

DHAKA

GAIBANDHA

MOULVI BAZAR

JHENAIDAH

NOAKHALI

CHANDPURKHAGRACHHARI

COX'S BAZAR

NAWABGANJ

NILPHAMARI

GOPALGANJ

THAKURGAON

NARAIL

MAGURA

BRAHMANBARIA

MANIKGANJ

BARISAL

NARSINGDI

PANCHAGARH

SHARIATPUR

LAKSHMIPUR

MADARIPUR

CHUADANGA

LALMONIRHAT

JOYPURHAT

MUNSHIGANJ

MEHERPUR

PATUAKHALI

PIROJPUR

BARGUNA

NARAYANGANJ

JHALAKATI

¯

BAY OF BENGAL

Urabanization in Bangladesh, 2011

INDIA

INDIA

INDIA

LegendurbanizationStudy_Area

Least urban 33

Solid urban: 5

Upcoming 20

Other urban 6

• Dhaka-Chittagong urban corridor• Chittagong: first urban district?

Conclusions•There is a high correlation between industry and service establishments and level of urbanisation. -Thus, urbanisation in top districts is probably largely due to pull factors

• Location is also a strong determinant of urbanisation.

• While dominance of a few districts are overwhelming, a large number of districts – mostly located in Dhaka and Chittagong- are experiencing fast unbanisation

• Districts that experienced rapid population growth between 2001-2011 are not the traditional ones (other than Big 5); They have approx. 96 lac(9.6 million) urban population; thus there is a growing consumer market beyond the Big-5.

Conclusions• A number of districts in other divisions, apart from regional

urban hubs (Rajshahi, Khulna and Rangpur) are undergoing significant urbanisation.

• Border districts fare well in the country’s urban map- of 31 urban districts 14 share border with neighbours (mostly India) and of them at least 9 have active border trade.

• Dhaka-Chittagong Urban corridor are connecting districts that were separated geographically a decade ago;

• Nearly 50 lac (4.7 million) new urban population added between 2001-2011: - Dhaka, Bogra, Sylhet, Comilla, Noakhali and Cox’s Bazarabsorbed 3.2 million population

Border districts