urban resilience tanzania fy program...
TRANSCRIPT
FY17
TANZANIAURBAN RESILIENCE
PROGRAM
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iii
ABOUT 1
ACTIVITY SUMMARY 5
PILLAR 1: Risk Identification 6
PILLAR 2: Risk Reduction Measures and Planning 19
PILLAR 3: Emergency Preparedness and Response 27
Resilience Academy 33
Small Risk Reduction Actions Grant (Challenge Grant) 36
Government-Executed Risk-Reduction Grant 37
Program Management 38
RESULTS 42
RISKS 48
LOOKING AHEAD 51
FINANCIALS 55
ANNEXES 58
This publication is a product of the staff and consultants of the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development/
The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the
views of the executive directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not
guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.
This note is created by The World Bank and available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
(CCBY3.0) license.
This guidance note is intended to be a live document and is subject to change without notice.
TANZANIA URBAN RESILIENCE PROGRAM ANNUAL REPORT FY17
Cover photos: Chris MorganChapter art: Emelie AnderssonDesign: Latif Amars
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ACRONYMS
AA: Administration Agreement
ASA: Advisory Services and Analytics
BETF: Bank-Executed Trust Fund
CDRT: Community Disaster Response Teams
CERC: Contingency Emergency Response
Component
CTTL: Child Activity Task Team Leader
COP: Community of Practice
DarMAERT: Dar es Salaam Multi-Agency Emergency
Response Team
DfID: United Kingdom’s Department for
International Development
DMD: Disaster Management Department
DRF: Disaster Risk Framework
GA: Grant Agreements
GFDRR: Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and
Recovery
GFR: Grant Financing Request
GIS: Geographic Information System
GoT: The Government of Tanzania
GPSURR: Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience Global
Practice
ICLEI: Local Governments for Sustainability
IGAD: Inter-Governmental Authority on
Development
IPF: Investment Project Financing
KPI: Key Performance Indicator
M&E: Monitoring and Evaluation
MKUKUTA-II: National Strategy for Growth and Poverty
Reduction
MoU: Memorandum of Understanding
NEMC: National Envrionmental Management
Council
PA : Programmatic Approach
PO-RALG: President’s Office – Regional
Administration and Local Government
PDNA: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment
RETF: Recipient-Executed Trust Fund
RMI: Risk Management Index
SC: Steering Committee
SOGDAT: Support to Open Data and Accountability
in Tanzania
TAHMO: Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological
Observatory
TF: Trust Fund
TTL: Task Team Leader
TURP: Tanzania Urban Resilience Programme
UAV: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
UNA: Urban Natural Assets
USSD: Unstructured Supplementary Service
Data
WBG: Word Bank Group
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
“Natural and human disasters are the most serious threats to social and economic development. We must improve resilience in cities and rural areas for the current inhabitants of Tanzania and for future generations to come.”
– Brigadier General Msuya, Director, Disaster Management Department, Tanzania
“Tanzania is the most flood-affected country in East Africa, and cities across
the country are underprepared to manage their increasing exposure
and vulnerability to climate hazards. Contributing to this heightened
risk, Tanzanian towns and cities have undergone massive and largely
unplanned spatial expansions. In Dar es Salaam, an estimated 75% of
residents live in unplanned settlements and in Mwanza, approximately 81%
of households are located in hazard-prone areas.
In response, the Tanzania Urban Resilience Program (TURP) was established
as a partnership between the Government of Tanzania (GoT), the World
Bank Group, and the UK Department for International Development (DFID)
to support national and local governments in strengthening management
of urban climate risk. This challenge calls for systematic mainstreaming
of risk management principles across government and civil society
stakeholders operating at community, municipal, and national levels.
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Launched on May 31, 2017, TURP is now driving renewed
engagement and deeper dialogue between the Bank
and GoT on climate resilience. Program objectives
include support for tools, knowledge, and strengthened
capacities for climate resilience across all urban areas,
whilst also developing deep-dive engagements in Dar
es Salaam, including the preparation of a flood risk
management project in one of the cities most vulernable
river basins. Such targeted engagements aim to deliver
exemplary risk-reduction plans and mitigation measures
that will serve as a template for other cities.
TURP is already oversubscribed with requests for support
from interested secondary cities, including Dodoma,
Mwanza, Kigoma, and Zanzibar Town. In addition to
these requests, the program design must strike a balance
between supporting long-term planning processes and
responding to short-term shocks and events.
One such shock was the earthquake of 5.9 magnitude
that struck the region of Kagera in September 2017,
resulting in 19 casualties and 253 injured. The damage
was most devastating in the town of Bukoba, with 840
houses destroyed and a further 1,264 seriously damaged,
leaving thousands homeless. This event highlighted the
lack of seismic resistance of structures within fast-growing
towns, the limited preparedness of local and regional
emergency management systems, as well as the means
of local governments to measure indirect losses.
A key objective of TURP is therefore to support the
introduction of modern methods for quantifying disaster
risk, and the spectrum of potential impacts in order to
build greater resilience into the urbanization process.
During the past year, the Bank team has worked
on revising the program structure accordingly, now
addressing priority actions in risk identification to serve
as key baselines. FY17 has also seen the establishment of
the administration and staffing of TURP, consultation with
stakeholders, and convening of government counterpart
committees.
An 18-month work plan was presented to the first TURP
steering committee (SC) meeting in November 2016 and
progress on actions is currently on track. A total of over
USD $4.6 million was allocated in the period between
July 2016 and June 2017. These funds address three
priority pillars, including (1) risk identification, (2) risk
reduction, and (3) disaster preparedness and emergency
management, as well as the development of a virtual
Resilience Academy and provisions for overall program
administration and technical design. TURP now has
an extensive portfolio of child activities, ranging from
community-led ground surveying, to supporting urban
emergency coordination, and the installation of new
instruments for stream monitoring. Notable achievements
have included:
• The launch of a scaled-up and government-
approved Open Map (Ramani Huria) campaign,
focussed on identifying community infrastructure
and flood hazards, to serve as a foundation for
various processes critical to TURP success, including
(i) baseline data in community and ward level
risk-planning activities; (ii) partnerships for local
government authorities; and (iii) skills building and
course content.
• Engagement of the Trans-African Hydro-
Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) to instrument
the Msimbazi River for flood model calibrations and,
in parallel, demonstrate a flood alert pilot system and
transfer skills to local schools and universities.
• Support for the Dar es Salaam Metropolitan
Development Project to develop a Contingency
Emergency Management Component (CERC).
Emerging from this, and responding to a request
from Dar es Salaam regional authorities, TURP
funding has also served to develop an updated
Emergency Response Plan for the Dar es Salaam
Multi-Agency Emergency Response Team
(DarMAERT), in conjunction with the delivery,
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
installation, and training of emergency radio
equipment, which has expanded the coverage of the
communications network across the metropolitan
area.
• A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) prepared
for a Resilience Academy, to be jointly developed
between Ardhi University and the World Bank.
Existing methods and skills for resilient urban
planning have been documented and developed
into accredited course materials for a Bachelor’s level
curriculum. In support of this, a data model and suite
of fit-for-purpose risk-assessment tools have been
defined. With a view to ensuring sustainability of
TURP outputs and lessons learned, all data, software,
and training materials associated with these tools will
be transferred to academic partners for reuse. TURP
has therefore adopted criteria for “open access” and
“locally replicable” by default for the assessments
and tools to be developed.
A strategic objective of TURP has further been to
develop an in-depth risk-reduction program for the
lower Msimbazi River Basin to address urgent needs
in the flood-prone area. Consultations and technical
studies have begun, however, the total basin needs are
expected to significantly exceed available resources
and will require a longer timeframe for engagement
than is envisaged under TURP. The approach developed
therefore proposes to fund priority works in targeted
communities whilst also formulating a basin-integrated
risk management plan that aims to crowd-in additional
investments and serve as a model for other flood-prone
urban basins.
Key reforms to TURP undertaken in the first year related to
membership of the Steering Committee and creation of
a Technical Advisory Committee, adjustment of planned
activities in response to budget reductions, improved
cost estimations, incorporation of government feedback
and requests, and the restructuring of the trust fund
(TF) administration agreement to conform to new fund
transfer schedules.
Important risks to the success of TURP have been
highlighted. These primarily relate to the effective
engagement and strengthening of interconnected
sets of institutional actors involved in risk management
systems. It additionally remains important to maintain
strong coordination mechanisms with the government
and support risk-reduction champions in both policy
making and technical roles. There is also a risk of over-
extension of human and budgetary resources and
lock-in to program concepts that may lack the flexibility
to respond to new shocks as they arise. TURP work plans
and priorities should therefore be carefully reviewed and
adjusted periodically. In light of a USD $7.7 million cut
announced in June 2017, as well as a depreciation of the
UK pound against the US dollar, some revisions and a
reduced scope of activities are projected for the latter part
of 2017.
The next steps of TURP will focus on two major elements:
developing the Dar es Salaam Flood Risk Management
Project based in lower Msimbazi communities
and strengthening the institutional system for risk
identification and management. A major increase in
disbursements is anticipated next year as the program
moves from primarily analytical and consultative activities
towards funding works and operational services.
The priorities for the Msimbazi Basin are now to transform
the consultative process into a participatory design
process, taking technical inputs from experts as well as
local stakeholders to develop a series of investment
plans. A grant agreement with the GoT is anticipated for
2018 to implement this plan.
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Print + digital format3200+ online impressions to date Informing project + government actions
PUBLISHED
Ramani Huria Atlas of Flood Resilience
HIGHLIGHTS
LAUNCHED
URTZ: Building Urban Resilience in Tanzania
PROTOTYPED
Twaa Mtaro app for risk reduction
ESTABLISHED
Draft Emergency Response Plan
PREPARED
MoU with Ardhi University
200+ government officials from TZ
16 honourable guests + 10 CSO representatives
75 journalists from 42 African countries
Emergency radios installed
Draft Plan produced for Dar es Salaam
Coverage increased from
50% to 100%
Locally developed consumer application
20+ community leaders trained on use
300+ students trained in resilience planning
35 wards to be mapped for risk identification
Commitment to develop Bachelor’s curriculum
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ABOUT
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ABOUT
How can data be kept up to date so that the best decisions can be made? How do we reduce the risks in light of so many competing challenges? How can we cope with disasters when they occur? This program will create multi-stakeholder partnerships with a goal of taking the best approach to these questions
- Edward Anderson, TURP TTL, World Bank
“The objective of the TF is to support national and local governments in
Tanzania to strengthen the management of climate risk in cities.
Higher-level objectives to which the program contributes include:
Increasing Resilience to Climate and Disaster Risk: TURP supports the GoT in implementing a program that promotes
climate and disaster risk management in the wider context of
sustainable development. The proposed engagement is aligned
with and directly addresses the GoT’s priorities on growth, the
environment, and climate adaptation outlined in the second National
Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (known as MKUKUTA-
II Mkakati wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kupunguza Umaskini Tanzania).
Similarly, the activities directly support the strategic objectives and
interventions in the National Climate Change Strategy, Zanzibar
Climate Change Strategy, and Disaster Management Act 2014.
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Promoting Shared Prosperity and Ending Extreme Poverty: Climate change and adverse
natural events have the greatest impact on the poorest
populations who generally live in higher-risk areas and
have a diminished capacity to recover from disaster. In
the case of Tanzania, even frequent, low-intensity events
such as a heavy rainfall can have crippling and cumulative
effects on livelihoods and communities of the bottom
40%. Impediments to development gains as a result
of climate hazards that particularly impact the poorest
communities can be minimized by reducing the exposure
to hazard events and decreasing the vulnerability of the
poor to climate disturbances.
Description of program activitiesThe activities financed by the TF are:
Bank-executed activities, for which the Bank has
implementation responsibility:
(a) Pillar 1 – Risk Identification
This pillar strengthens the identification and
understanding of climate risk and uncertainty in the local
context, and enhances the linkages and coordination
between risk management stakeholders. To make
decisions that ultimately strengthen physical, social, and
financial resilience, a thorough understanding of disaster
and climate risks in the local context and their implications
are vital. This informs decision makers about the risks
they face and the drivers of those risks. As such, Pillar 1
increases access to comprehensive information about
physical and societal exposure to climate risks, which
inform implementation of structural and non-structural
mitigation measures.
Pillar 1 builds upon complementary Bank-led work
such as the Building Community Resilience in Tanzanian
Cities project that has been supported by both the
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
(GFDRR) and UK Aid from the Support to Open Data
and Accountability in Tanzania (SOGDAT) program,
known locally as Ramani Huria (the Open Map) and Zuia
Mafuriko (Stop Flooding) campaigns. TURP funding has
been allocated to validate and scale up many of these
precursor programs in an operational role.
(b) Pillar 2 – Risk Reduction
Guided by data and management tools of Pillar 1, Pillar
2 strengthens cities’ capacity to plan for and reduce
climate risk through the use of both structural and non-
structural measures addressing long-term systemic risk.
In partnership with government entities, civil society,
and the private sector, activities supported focus on the
reduction of the vulnerability of people, households,
and communities. This is be accomplished by providing
analysis of non-structural measures, such as creating
or improving policies and legislation, better land use
planning, environmental protection and basin plans,
hazard zoning and building codes—and the design
of risk-reduction works, such as drainage upgrades,
ponding schemes, slope stabilization, and retrofitting
or reinforcement programs. The activities support
communities, planning, and works authorities with the
development of a pipeline of investments reducing
urban risk. These investments support the resilience of
critical infrastructure and specifically target measures
aimed at protecting priority river basins and improving
flood management infrastructure.
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ABOUT
(c) Pillar 3 – Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management
Pillar 3 helps stakeholders involved with short-term
disaster events and preparedness for specific emergency
scenarios. Also guided by Pillar 1 data, Pillar 3 scenarios of
city risk can be used to establish good practices around
identifying and preparing vulnerable groups, emergency
response plans and design of early warning systems,
requirements for equipment, tools and infrastructure,
simulations, drills, and damage assessment capacities.
Stakeholders in this workstream are concerned with civil
protection, disaster management, community volunteers,
coordination for response, and recovery actions.
(d) Resilience Academy
Thematic content of the Resilience Academy spans
across risk identification, risk reduction, and emergency
management, such that is it embedded as a knowledge-
transfer function within the activities of Pillars 1 through
3. Nevertheless, consultations throughout the first year
of implementation have shown a high level of interest
assigned by local stakeholders, so the Bank proposes to
report explicitly on this activity as a coherent workstream.
The concept of Resilience Academy is an evolving virtual
program anchored in both universities and training
institutes and delivering digital curricula, practical
experience, training courses, and laboratory equipment
to support surveying, maintenance, risk monitoring, and
analysis activities. Its goal is to enable a legacy for skills
and tools developed through TURP and enhance the
sustainability of risk management practices and datsets in
Tanzania.
Recipient-executed activities, for which one or more
recipients have implementation responsibility:
These actions have not yet begun in the TURP program,
but shall focus on the government implementation
of activities designed to: (i) mainstream and scale up
data, tools, equipment, skills for effective climate risk
management, including community-driven works,
projects, and small grants; and (ii) larger engineering
structures for flood risk reduction, basin management,
drainage enhancements, and early warning systems.
12%$480,000
15%$570,000
31%$1,220,000
42%$1,630,000
Pillar 1Pillar 2
Pillar 3ResilienceAcademy
ALLOCATION OF TURP PROJECT PILLAR FUNDS IN FY17
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ACTIVITY SUMMARY
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Pillar 1: Risk Identification
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ACTIVITY SUMMARY
“Without maps you cannot understand the problems. Where are the issues? How big? What will be affected? Even after the disaster occurs, what was there before? So for us, maps are the history, maps are the future plans, maps are almost everything”
– Elizabeth Mrema, Assistant Director of Mapping, Ministry of Lands, Housing and HumanSettlement Development, Tanzania
PILLAR 1: Risk Identification
BANK EXECUTED GRANTS
“ObjectiveTo strengthen the identification and understanding of climate risk and
uncertainty in the local context, and enhance the linkages and coordination
between risk management stakeholders.
Overview of Progress During the first half of FY 2017, the objective and structure of Pillar 1 were
finalized and approved by both World Bank management and DfID.
Activities to be implemented under this heading were discussed and
solidified as part of the first SC meeting in November 2016. These activities
were prioritized over FY17 as their outputs were expected to further inform
initiatives of Pillars 2 and 3.
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Bank Executed Grants
URBAN EXPOSURE MAPPING DATA SERVICESThe first step in risk identification is developing up-to-date
hazard and exposure data and baselines. Exposure is the
situation of people, infrastructure, housing, production
capacities, and other tangible human assets located in
hazard-prone areas .1
A key part of the risk management challenge in Tanzania
is the pace of urbanization, with some wards growing
over 20% per year and many secondary towns lacking
any baseline data at all. The goal of this activity has
therefore been to consolidate available building and
population data within the Dar es Salaam region and pilot
simple, cost-effective methods to acquire exposure data 1 UNISDR, Terminology for Disaster Risk Reduction: https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/terminology
at scale.
One primary focus for TURP has been to evaluate the
Ramani Huria pilot project conducted in Dar es Salaam
during 2015 – 2016. Ramani Huria was a community-
driven mapping project that used OpenStreetMap
as a new and low-cost alternative to traditional land
surveys, aiming specifically to demonstrate the ability of
students to collect very local infrastructure, drainage, and
household data as well as the value of community inputs
on inundation area and flood impacts. TURP convened
an experts review group during November 2016 to serve
as an advisory panel on what lessons could be drawn
from Ramani Huria for community risk identification and
broader baseline data collection.
TURP also supported the first Dar es Salaam Flood
Inundation Atlas for 10 wards at the same time and
sought feedback and reviews from ward officers as well
Ward Executive Officers share Ramani Huria challenges and use cases
Credit: Darragh Coward - World Bank
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ACTIVITY SUMMARY
as community focus groups.
The insights derived from the Ramani Huria review
process have led to the design and competitive
tendering of a Ramani Huria 2.0 program for 2017
– 2019, which incorporates more rigorous hydraulic,
socioeconomic, and urban planning data model
requirements as well as improved quality assurance
and local government partnership. This scale-up was
requested by the Regional Administrative Secretary and
presents a key success in establishing a value proposition
for local communities and authorities together.
In parallel with the lessons learned and review process
of Ramani Huria for Dar es Salaam, a similar project
was initiated under Urban Exposure Services following
the September 10, 2016 earthquake that struck
the town of Bukoba. As requested by the Disaster
Management Department, a geospatial support team
was deployed in December 2016 via TURP funding
to assist in collecting and organizing urban exposure
data and mapping regional facilities and town layouts.
This was accomplished with the help of 10 Ardhi
University students working remotely to digitise local
area maps. The immediate objective was to compile a
georeferenced and up-to-date baseline of urban assets
(building footprints and critical facilities) from which
Ramani Huria Atlas of Flood Resilience and maps in a ward office Credit: Darragh Coward - World Bank
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Bank Executed Grants
Geospatial team and community members surveying damage from Bukoba earthquake
Atla
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Rec
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in B
ukob
a
Credit: Daud Fufuji - World Bank
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ACTIVITY SUMMARY
the damage assessment could be developed and
reconstruction planning based.
Under the Urban Exposure umbrella, FY17 additionally
prioritized a survey of the lower Msimbazi Basin using
an eBee Plus UAV, an activity conducted by Swiss
surveyors. These data are intended to support inundation
modelling, exposure mapping, and land use and land
cover. Later in the year, the project acquired two of these
drones and trained local surveyors and consultants in
their use for urban watershed and exposure mapping
work to complement other in-situ based mapping
methods. The equipment is subject to an asset handover
plan with the local Ardhi University when project
mapping activities are completed.
A pilot project to map and monitor via satellite Dar es
Salaam’s urban density changes and level of informality
across the entire 1600km2 of the region was further
commissioned in April 2017 to run for nine months.
Ramani Huria Atlas of Flood Resilience and Maps in a Ward Office
eBee drone used for aerial mapping
The goal of this activity has been to test whether new
satellite constellations capable of imaging on a daily
basis can produce low cost, cloud-free mosaics of urban
expansion with sufficient resolution to enable automated
classification of urban densification. The service will
show whether in the peri-urban wards of Dar es Salaam,
where urban growth is between 10% – 25% per year, a
simple metric of Floor Space Index 2 can be monitored
in a standardized and reliable fashion on a periodic
basis (quarterly). These satellite data are currently at
3 – 5 meters resolution, which is insufficient for detailed
urban mapping and flood modelling, but can represent
a means to monitor urban hotspots across all Tanzanian
cities in a systematic manner and could act as triggers
for more detailed in-situ surveys. The results of the pilot
will be evaluated in year two and a decision whether to
expand as an operational service for secondary cities
2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floor_area_ratio
Credit: Sensefly
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Credit: Frederick Mbuya - World Bank
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Bank Executed Grants
will be made following expert review and stakeholder
feedback.
ELEVATION MODEL When designing TURP, it was envisaged that a detailed
elevation model would be necessary to develop a
quantitative evaluation of expected losses from flood
in Dar es Salaam, complemented by an accurate stock
of exposure buildings, facilities, and concentrations of
people and businesses. Since both the available data
layers as well as the actual demographics and urban
dynamics of the city are subject to change over the
lifetime of the program, these databases seek to be
as open, low-cost, and reproducible as possible, thus
maximizing scalability across Tanzania.
Over this reporting period, expert consultants reviewed
existing elevation models and identified a high-value
dataset within the Ministry of Lands, and a 25cm
resolution dataset of orthophotos and elevation data for
4300km2 of Dar es Salaam. This dataset will provide for
both digital surface model (including heights of buildings
and structures) and digital terrain model (measuring the
ground levels without vegetation and buildings). The
digital terrain model is expected to be a foundational
dataset for flood modelling and risk assessment across
the city. Further UAV aerial mapping of transport
corridors and other infrastructure in Dar es Salaam has
been planned for October 2017.
INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENTS AND RISK MANAGEMENT INDEXIn FY17, it was determined that TURP would fund support
services for the development of a Risk Management
Index (RMI), to be used in setting a baseline and
tracking progress in institutional improvement for risk
identification. A draft institutional capacity assessment
was completed in January 2017 for Dar es Salaam-
based agencies in emergency management and
response. This assessment found that despite the
establishment of DarMAERT as a key step towards an
improved emergency response in Dar es Salaam region3,
the primary regional agencies dealing with disaster
management need further assistance to improve their
performance and collaboration amongst each other. The
top five challenges to be tackled are noted in the report
to be: 1) low awareness; 2) insufficient training; 3) poor
coordination; 4) limited equipment; and 5) lack of staff.
Further assessments are expected to be undertaken as
the program progresses over the next fiscal year.
3 Interviewees highlighted the existence of the DarMAERT as the main strength Dar es Salaam Region has for emergency response.
Number of new buildings detected in each planet mosaic from change detection analysis
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ACTIVITY SUMMARY
INVENTORY OF DISASTER AND LOSSESThe structure of this pillar has taken into account the value
of a robust inventory of historical events that records
losses to people and property, and persons affected.
The first year TURP faciliated an Inter-Governmental
Authority on Development (IGAD) and Global Facility
for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) training
workshop, conducted in collaboration with the DMD,
on different approaches to disaster loss inventories
as well as Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA)
methods. The training familiarised participants with the
importance of establishing such inventories and has led
to further requests for support from the Government in
this area. The Bank is coordinating with GFDRR to ensure
that this work is either delivered through their current
engagement or through TURP.
HYDROLOGICAL DATA STRENGTHENING FOR CLIMATE RISK Responding to a need for the strengthening of
hydrological data, collaborative efforts are being taken to
improve documentation, cataloging, and availability of
hydromet data, and skills of weather station maintenance.
An expert mission was therefore fielded in February
2017, resulting in the requirements definition for, and
selection of, the TAHMO. TAHMO was contracted to
develop pilot projects, in coordination with Tanzania
Met Authority and the Ministry of Water, to plan for the
procurement and placement of Msimbazi weather
stations and stream flow instrumentation. Work began in
August 2017.
As part of the TAHMO contract, Delft University will
deliver training and technology transfer in late 2017 and
2018. Delft will additionally demonstrate an enhanced
flood event forecasting system based on improved data
and recommend early warning opportunities. Community members participating in the installation of weather stations
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Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank
Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank
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Bank Executed Grants
PROBABILISTIC FLOOD RISK MODEL FOR DAR ES SALAAMA metropolitan-wide flood loss evaluation has never
been conducted for Dar es Salaam and is considered a
critical foundation upon which risk-reduction planning
and investment decisions can be made. In 2017, TURP
presented the work carried out by Anchor Environmental
Consultants during 2014 – 2016, which included a
flood loss model in the Msimbazi catchment. The report
estimated average annual losses of USD $47 million per
year due to flooding. The authors also urged caution,
however, and concluded:
“Due to the limited availability of data, this
study by necessity utilized simple models and
assumptions. While the results strongly suggest
that catchment rehabilitation interventions would
yield a positive outcome in economic terms, the
figures presented here are preliminary and warrant
further investigation and refinement. The results do,
however, provide a useful step towards informing
policies and contributing to Dar es Salaam’s green
urban development path. It is recommended that
investment is made in the development of better
hydrological data, through establishment of flow and
additional rainfall gauges, as well as development
of detailed spatial datasets on soils, land cover, the
built environment, and the city’s drainage systems.
Moving forward, these datasets can then be used to
construct a more definitive analysis.” 4
The probabilistic flood risk model therefore aims to use
these improved datasets and apply a loss evaluation
across the entire metropolitan area. This will involve
re-evaluating the Msimbazi catchment and surrounding
4 World Bank, (2017), Promoting Green Urban Development in Africa: Amelioration of Flood Risk in the Msimbazi River Catchment, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
catchments with up-to-date data.
Whilst delivery of this model is anticipated for year two of
the program, the design specification process has already
begun. Deltares flood consultants were contracted
to define the flood data model parameters for such a
probabilistic model that could be collected using Ramani
Huria methods. Typologies were created for waterways,
tunnels, walls, buildings, and highways of varying values
and characteristics. Work now remains on building
typologies for other hazards relating to climate risk. Two
key criteria stand out that characterize this modelling
effort: i) a data model that is compatible with readily
available or easily updatable local data; and ii) a design
that allows for local visualization, scenario generation, and
output analysis.
Activities in year one have therefore focused on
developing an urban flood and hydrology data model,
and specifications for a visualization dashboard.
GEOSPATIAL DATA PORTAL AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS
With the goal of filling the current gap of a data
clearinghouse to host and serve climate risk
information, TURP is supporting the review of climate
data stakeholders in Tanzania and the development
of a geospatial data portal for producers and
users. Competitive selection in FY17 awarded
responsibility of the review of the National Spatial Data
Infrastructure to Ordnance Survey International with the
recommendations report due by December 2017.
The prototyping of modern geospatial catalogues was
additionally developed by the British Geological Survey
and Deltares over FY17. This included a data model and a
hybrid formal/informal data architecture for urban risk.
All available and open climate- and risk-related datasets
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created or supported by TURP were uploaded to the
COSTECH-hosted geonode and the State University of
Zanzibar, ZanSEA geonode. These platforms are serving
as test and training platforms, with a new geonode
expected to host official risk data on a dedicated
government server with a PMO-DMD domain and a
training node at Ardhi University.
POVERTY AND DISASTERS – A SOCIO-ECONOMIC STUDY A ToR has been approved and consultants hired to
conduct an analysis of the incentives and vulnerable
conditions of communities in informal flood prone areas
of Dar es Salaam. For this activity, a household survey will
be implemented continuously throughout the lifetime of
the TURP program to monitor how household behavior
and exposure to risk are associated, as well as monitor
household awareness and impacts of TURP activities.
By combining a rapid poverty assessment tool, SWIFT5,
and a DRM questionnaire, the team will capture data
on household income, exposure, and socioeconomic
5 Survey of Well-being via Instant and Frequent Tracking
characteristics in a single data collection effort. With this
data, TURP will support an improved understanding of
how poverty and disasters are related in terms of level
of exposure, short- and long-term impacts, capacity
to recover, and adoption of behaviors associated with
living with risk. This study is also expected to support an
understanding of measuring outcomes in vulnerability
reduction through providing insights into a target
beneficiary group intended to guide risk-reduction policy.
Layer of the ZANSEA Geonode
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Urban Exposure Data Mapping Services
Exposure mapping pilots
Satellite monitoring of urban density changes
Equipment provided to support geo-rectification
Ramani Huria, community-mapping initiative, adopted into program
Elevation Model and Exposure Mapping
Existing elevation models reviewed by experts and a high-value dataset identified
Lower Msimbazi surveyed and mapped by UAVs
Aerial mapping of transport corridors and infrastructure planned
Institutional Assessments and Risk Management Index
Draft assessment complete
Risk management index assessment advertised and shortlisted firms identified
Vulnerability assessment recommendations report advertised and shortlisted firms identified
Inventory of Disasters and Losses
Data model for urban flood exposure developed by Deltares
Training workshop on disaster loss inventories delivered with IGAD
Historical review of Dar es Salaam disaster events, not yet started
Establishment of event databases, not yet started
Hydrological Data Strengthening for Climate Risk
Expert mission in February and March 2017 provided ToR for hydromet data review
TAHMO contracted to develop two pilots for Msimbazi weather stations
Delft University contracted to deliver training and technology transfer
Delft University contracted to demonstrate an enhanced flood event forecasting system
Probabilistic Flood Risk Model for Dar es Salaam Flood risk model pending finalization of exposure data model for detailed ToR
Geospatial Data Portal and Information Systems
Ordinance Survey International selected to conduct a review of the National Spatial Data Infrastructure
Assessment of climate risk information stakeholders, not yet started
British Geological Survey and Deltares jointly developing a data model and a hybrid formal-informal data architecture for urban risk
Climate and risk data hosted on a COSTECH geonode and the ZanSEA geonode
Poverty and Disasters – a socio-economic study ToR reviewed and approved, work commenced
TABLE 1: RISK IDENTIFICATION ACTIVITY SUMMARY
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Early outputs are anticipated to be made available by the
end of 2017.
Challenges and Lessons Learned
Pillar 1 is characterized primarily by a range of
technological and scientific activities concerning
data collection, curation, analysis and review, and
tool development. A key challenge is that often cost
and time estimates rely on assumptions about data
availability, quality, and need. In some cases, certain
activites described above have advanced more readily
due to the timely provision of quality data, while in
other instances there have been delays in identifying or
securing access to such data. Incomplete and inaccurate
data has at points necessitated the revision of risk model
requirements.
It has been noted that the review and goals of Pillar 1 are
ambitious in terms of developing strategies fit for a fast-
changing and often informal data landscape. This is calls
for innovative approaches that may differ for the business-
as-usual case. Experts that can combine traditional
disciplines of risk modelling with new areas such open
data, drone imaging, and crowdsourcing are scarce.
Consultation and coordination with government
counterparts is also non-trivial. Several agencies have
internal procedures to review and approve data sharing,
collaboration, and approvals for Bank work. The river
instrumentation and hydrologic model calibration, for
example, requires MoUs with Ministry of Water and
Tanzania Meteorological Agency, as well as coordination
with Basin authority, environment, and forestry
departments and academia. Establishing the Technical
Advisory Committee in May 2017 was a key step to
support this coordination, as well as requesting support
from the prime minister’s office to establish government
coordination of TURP activities.
Finally, a key challenge in Pillar 1 has been to maintain a
focus on urban flooding, which was the identified priority
at the start of TURP. The Bukoba earthquake, however,
demanded that the government support seismic hazard
assessments, building code, and construction standards
reviews. Similarly, the Government’s prioritization of
Dodoma as the administrative center for Tanzania has
pressured many agencies to focus on logistical moves
to the capital, and raised demand for risk assessments
concerning water availability and seismic risk in the city.
These needs were not foreseen at the outset of TURP,
which maintains a desire to be demand driven and build
effective relationships with counterparts. As such, there is
a need to trade off flexibility of the TURP program against
its original work plan sequencing and flood focus.
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33%$150,000
67%$300,000
Risk Evaluation and Info MGMTUrban Exposure Mapping Data Services
Financials Pillar 1 projects were allotted funding from two grants:
TF0A4139, Risk Evaluation and Information Management,
and TF0A3559, Urban Exposure Mapping Data Services.
Funds disbursed by these grants amounted to USD
$450,000, and a further $850,000 was committed in
contracts.
Financial summaries are detailed in Section 9.
River blocked and flooding ensues in Dar es Salaam
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Credit: Mark Iliffe - World Bank
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ACTIVITY SUMMARY
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Pillar 2: Risk Reduction Measures and Planning
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“Reducing risk can be achieved through fostering a culture of collaboration between ministries, the city council, municipalities, ward offices, and the community”
– Mussa Natty, Senior Advisor, Dar es Salaam Regional Commission
BANK EXECUTED GRANTS
“ObjectiveTo strengthen cities’ capacity to plan for and reduce climate risk through
the use of both structural and non-structural measures addressing long-
term systemic risk.
Overview of Progress Pillar 2 was introduced into the TF at the beginning of FY17 and was
structured to build upon the foundation set by Pillar 1. Activities were
finalized and approved by GoT, World Bank, and DfID during the first SC
meeting.
Most work under this Pillar is expected to scale as updated hazard and
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risk maps are delivered, which will inform risk-reduction
planning activities. Nevertheless, work has begun at the
community level and in targeted areas of the Msimbazi
Basin. Although limited outputs have been recorded, the
final half of FY17 has seen the approval of ToRs and hiring
of consultants, as well as early piloting, as detailed below.
PARTICIPATORY COMMUNITY CLIMATE RISK PLANSInformed by the prior work of Zuia Mafuriko (Stop
Flooding) conducted in 2016 by the Tanzania, Danish,
and American Red Cross societies in collaboration with
Ramani Huria, this project undertakes a revised process
to develop community risk-reduction plans in 20 wards.
To achieve this, expert advisory teams were brought
together with Ward Executive Officers, the World Bank,
and representatives from Humanitarian OpenStreetMap
to identify successes, challenges, and lessons learned,
and define the best way forward.
Key recommendations included:
Target level should be the subward (MTAA) level,
whereby community leaders can be informed about
ongoing projects to secure community mobilization;
• Assessments of best uses for project products should
be identified early for effective promotion of such
uses throughout project duration; and
• Projects should have components of advocacy
to build political will within government so that
authorities can start budgeting for these initiatives to
enhance project sustainability.
TURP has since prepared a socioeconomic study as well
as an impact evaluation of the participatory process in
affecting vulnerability and resilience results. Community
focus groups were called together in three wards
over FY17 as preliminary research actions. A team of
urban sociologists were additionally hired to revise the
community engagement and participatory decision-
making process for 20 wards. These sociologists will also
undertake a human-centred design study and a profiling
of target communities and groups in the second year.
MSIMBAZI FLOOD MITIGATION STUDY AND IMPLEMENTATION PLANCOWI Consultants has been contracted to conduct
studies and identify risk-reduction priorities for critical
infrastructure (e.g., bridges, bus depot, national hospital)
in the Msimbazi Basin and develop a menu of flood-
management measures for the lower basin. The flood
risk-reduction plan is expected to assess and recommend
options, including measures such as:
• Dredging of critical identified sections of the primary
channel
• Raising of low-lying bridges
• Excavating the Jangwani Playing Fields to form a
deeper retention basin
• Excavation of sediment in existing drains
• Rehabilitation of problematic culverts
• Tree planting/revegetation
• Demarcation of flood hazard areas
• Management/transformation of demolition areas
• Drain cleaning programs
• Solid waste management priorities sites
• Equipment/goods purchases
• Upstream retention basins
• Structural flood defenses for key infrastructure
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This study will provide design options for both short-term
actions (i.e., two- to three-year implementation through the
Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project) as well
as medium- and long-term priorities for a lower Msimbazi
Basin flood-management plan. The recommendations
will also inform site-specific infrastructure plans (e.g.,
emergency operations plan and flood-defence upgrades
for transport infrastructure).
TRAINING ON USING RISK DATA FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE DECISIONSIn conjunction with their flood data model work noted
under Pillar 1, Deltares consultants delivered a training
on using risk data for improving community resilience
decisions. Community residents and leaders were
Community Initiative to mitigate deposition of sand atop a bridge before flood season
Deltares training on risk data for improved resilience
Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank
Cre
dit:
Dar
rag
h C
ow
ard
- W
orl
d B
ank
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convened to understand factors behind building a
resilient community. Participants identified the resources
and challenges of their neighbourhood and worked
through a series of scenarios to identify measures
that they can take to mitigate the impact of flooding
and reduce risk. Major tactics presented included the
establishment of solid waste dumping sites and simple
community actions such as drain cleaning.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESTORATION AND GREEN URBANIZATIONKey findings from the report, Promoting Green Urban
Development in African Cities, have informed the
structuring and prioritization TURP, and they are further
expected to inform future work on urbanization and
environmental impact in the region. A portion of these
findings include:
• Informal settlement is inevitable and is currently
the single biggest driver of
ecosystem loss across the city of
Dar es Salaam;
• Dar es Salaam’s aquatic
ecosystems have been the most
burdened and degraded by the
impacts of urbanization;
• Institutional fragmentation
is particularly challenging in
Dar es Salaam and inhibits
effective urban environmental
management;
• Urban development has not
been guided by a strategic
planning framework that
identifies the most critical natural assets and
prioritizes their conservation; and
• There are broader metropolitan-scale environmental
assets remaining within the city that will require
strategic action to conserve and protect.
DRAINS MANAGEMENT SYSTEM – PROTOTYPE: TWAA MTARO To reduce flood risk through the improved management
of drainage infrastructure, TURP has initiated the
development of a prototype of a Drains Management
Dashboard. This system, currently being developed by
a local team with input from universities, will facilitate
reporting on solid waste blockages affecting the flood
risk of local drainage systems and recommend actions
for clean up. By the end of FY17, a prototype had been
delivered in the form of a web app and USSD mobile
short code that utilizes OpenStreetMap data and is
Twaa Mtaro - Adopt-a-drain application showcased upon different platforms
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optimized for mobile viewing. The app is currently able
to fetch drain data from the map, which is then processed
to provide visual information on the status of cleanliness
in any particular area. It is expected that a fully operational
system would likely make use of government short codes
for reporting or Facebook Messenger Bots; both options
exist in Tanzania and would be free for the users.
An inaugural pilot, featuring a training session with
citizens, ward officers, and street leaders, is underway in
two wards of Dar es Salaam.
URBANIZATION REVIEW ON RESILIENCE During FY17, a team worked to develop an urban
resilience chapter and body of knowledge upon the
existing narrative for African urbanization, highlighting
linkages with climate change and disaster risk. A final
report will be disclosed in the next fiscal year and serve
as a flagship knowledge product to disseminate to
government and policy makers at all levels.
MSIMBAZI CHARRETTE AND AREA PLANTerms of Reference have been developed and the
procurement process initiated to facilitate a participatory,
stakeholder-driven urban design charrette approach to
develop the following:
1. A strategic framework for open space and
environmental management in the wider Msimbazi
River catchment (approximately 8km2) that provides
a shared vision and overall strategic direction for
action and investment in the catchment
2. A conceptual design for river revitalization, open
space, and recreation for the lower Msimbazi flood
plain (approximately 3km2) that provides more site-
specific interventions for a first phase of investments
in the most flood-vulnerable area of the catchment
Together with proposed engineering options prepared
under the COWI assignment, this participatory approach
will provide an overall vision and design concepts to
ACTIVITY PROGRESS
Participatory community climate risk plans
Zuia Mafuriko lessons-learned workshop conducted
Community focus groups conducted in three wards
Team of urban sociologists hired to revise community engagement and participatory decision-making process
Team of urban sociologists hired to conduct a Human-Centered Design study
Dissemination and discussion of preliminary flood risk scenario and atlas results ongoing since November 2016
Inputs and recommendations for revision of Municipal Planning Process commenced
Msimbazi Flood Risk Mitigation StudyCOWI Consultants selected and work ongoing to develop risk-reduction priorities and implementation plan
Environmental restoration and green urbanization Presented at TURP launch workshop
TABLE 2: FY17 ACTIVITY RESULTS
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guide preparation of an investment program around
flood mitigation and environmental restoration in the
Msimbazi catchment. Additional activities and next steps
to support this goal include:
• Meetings are ongoing at the technical and director
level with key stakeholder ministries (e.g., Ministry of
Lands, NEMC, PORALG, Dar es Salaam Region) to
gain inputs on the ToR.
• Consultants are expected to mobilize by October
2017 and complete the design charrette by January
2017.
Challenges and Lessons LearnedThe importance of coordination and local stakeholder
engagement has been evident in Pillar 2 work plans. A
key challenge has been understanding how and when to
convene and at which level. Pillar 2 focuses on planning
and risk-mitigation activities, and as such expectations
can be raised by bringing civil society and communities
to the table to discuss priorities. Ideally, this process
of engagement is sequenced to leverage new data
and analysis to offer stakeholders whilst preceding the
availability of resources and delivery of actions on the
round. Timing of activities is key to maintain momentum
and deepen engagement.
Whilst Pillar 1 has worked largely with technical
counterparts, it also relies increasingly on the buy-in of
policy makers and on developing relationships with
political champions who have their own visions for the
city growth, basin restoration, and manner in which the
process should unfold.
Priorities are also split between preparing for the short
term, i.e., the next flood season, and prioritizing the
long-term planning. Short-term investment needs are
compounded by the lack of data readiness in some
cases. As such, TURP has followed a two-step planning
process, with a focus on “quick wins” where possible,
followed by more comprehensive planning based on
reliable risk information for the medium to long term.
Given the imperative to move quickly in the face of
ACTIVITY PROGRESS
Urbanization review Draft outputs finalized
Drains management system – prototype: Twaa Mtaro
System design and prototyping underway
Training, user feedback, and review pilot commenced
Data integration and live pilot demonstration targeted for the short rains in December 2017
Msimbazi transport infrastructure risk reviewCombined with Msimbazi Flood Risk Mitigation Study and underway by COWI consultants
Msimbazi charette and area plan ToR drafted
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42%$79,000
48%$90,000
10%$19,000
Risk Mitigation PlanningMsimbazi River RevitilizationUrbanization Review
frequent flood shocks in the city and community needs,
while also seeking to address long-term planning
processes, the programmatic nature of TURP is critical for
agility in response to results and events on the ground.
Financials
In FY17, Pillar 2 projects were allotted funding from three
grants: TF0A4691, Risk Mitigation Planning; TF0A4571,
Msimbazi River Revitalization; and TF0A475, Urbanization
Review. Funds disbursed so far under these grants
amounted to USD $188,000, with a further $426,000
committed in contracts.
Financial summaries are detailed in Section 9.
CSO and community leaders gather to discuss future plans for improving resilience of the Msimbazi
Credit: Studio 19 Tanzania
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5
Pillar 3: Emergency Management and Response
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“We exhaust a lot of resources in the event of emergency. Better data, equipment, and coordination is needed to support our greatest asset: people.”
– Christopher Mnzava, Coordinator, DarMAERT
PILLAR 3: Emergency Preparedness and Response
BANK EXECUTED GRANTS
“ObjectiveTo strengthen the capacity of stakeholders involved in short-term disaster
events and preparedness to cope with specific emergency scenarios.
Overview of ProgressPillar 3 was developed following review of the government’s National
Disaster Risk Management Act and in recognition that disaster risk cannot
realistically be entirely eliminated. Shocks may, occur and a key aim of
resilience is to develop coping capacities for such events if they arise. The
Pillar 3 objective and strategy were approved by World Bank management
and DfID during the first TURP SC meeting.
Many activities that fall under Pillar 3 are dependent upon outputs from the
first two pillars; progress has been made within three key areas, however, as
noted in the summary below.
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STRENGTHENING OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND RESPONSE During FY17, preliminary steps were taken to improve
emergency planning in Tanzania’s economic hub of Dar
es Salaam. A CERC for the Dar es Salaam Metropolitan
Development Project was developed and an operations
manual prepared. This plan outlines how CERC funds will
work to finance eligible expenditures for post-disaster
emergency recovery in support of the Government’s
rapid response efforts resulting from natural or man-
made disasters, including public health crises.
World Bank consultants have additionally been working
Installation of DarMAERT Emergency Radios
DarMAERT Emergency Rescue
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Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank
Credit: DarMAERT
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with the DarMAERT to develop and implement a
comprehensive emergency response plan, which
includes:
• Background information on disaster risk in Dar es
Salaam
• Outline of disaster management framework and
response structure
• Purpose of the DarMAERT Emergency Response
Plan
• Scope of the DarMAERT Emergency Response Plan
• Detailed overview of emergency response
operations
• Plan for emergency response activation
• Steps for implementation and review
To further support the Emergency Response Plan, TURP
funding was also used to procure high-grade emergency
radio equipment and train DarMAERT in its use. Pre-
existing communication coverage was stalled at 50%,
with just two repeaters, six base stations, and a limited
selection of radio handsets. When fully supplied with
TURP-procured equipment, Dar es Salaam will be 100%
covered, with an addition of three repeater stations, four
radio base stations, six mobile stations, 31 radio handsets,
and six table phones.
COMMUNITY RESPONSE PLANS Community consultations conducted in coordination
with risk mapping and profiling of Pillar 1 highlighted
the experience of the Community Disaster Response
Teams (CDRT) established as a part of the Zuia Mafuriko
project. It was noted that despite the project’s end, CDRTs
continue to mobilize community clean-up exercises, and
that these exercises are proving effective in reducing the CDRTs mobilized and actively removing waste from drains before the flood season
Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank
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Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank
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effects of flooding. CDRTs are additionally committed to
providing first-aid services in the event of emergency.
Initial plans for broadening the reach of community
response plans and CDRTs have been conceptualized
and actions will be carried out in late 2017.
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT CAPACITY-BUILDING The Bank team, working in partnership with the GFDRR,
facilitated the IGAD to deliver a training workshop on
post-disaster needs assessments (PDNA) and disaster
risk frameworks (DRF) to 50 government officials from
relevant ministries and institutions in May 2017. This
training provided a comprehensive overview of how
to conduct PDNAs and develop a sustainable DRF.
The goal was to ensure standardized responses across
government to disaster. The majority of attendees rated
the training as excellent, though requests were made for
a follow-up training, and the potential for delivery of said
training is now under discussion.
The training course itself was delivered by IGAD using
separate funding; the local coordination and participation
from Dodoma of Disaster focal point staff, however, was
supported by TURP.
Challenges and Lessons LearnedPillar 3 has faced challenges in sequencing and
coordination. Ideally, community response plans are
based on the timely delivery of inundation baseline
data, but must also align with the pre-flood season
preparedness. Delivery of the flood response plan after
the rainy season should be avoided. This places a degree
of pressure on the team and need for careful planning.
There is also a broad range of needs in this pillar that will
exceed TURP’s resources and present potentially complex
trade-offs. The most significant risk is that of a major flood
ACTIVITY OUTPUTS
Strengthening of Emergency Management and Response in Dar Es Salaam
Operations manual developed for the DMDP CERC
DarMAERT Emergency Response drafted through consultative process
Emergency radio equipment procured and currently being installed
Community Response Plans Initial plans made– expected to follow community level risk mapping and risk profiling
Damage Assessment Capacity-BuildingPost-Disaster Needs Assessment training conducted – potential follow-up training under discussion.
TABLE 3: EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND RESPONSE ACTIVITY SUMMARY
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event occurring during TURP implementation. This would
likely result in restructuring of activities and scaling up of
response, rehabilitation, and recovery actions. The PDNA
training was in part aimed at preparing stakeholders
and supporting a clear methodology and coordination
mechanism should an emergency occur.
Finally, delays in customs clearance required an
adjustment in the schedule for installation of the
DarMAERT emergency radios and associated trainings.
Financials The total grant amount available for TF0A3828 was USD
$480,000, 81% of which was disbursed or committed.
Total disbursement over FY17 was USD $300,000, with a
further $89,000 committed in contracts.
Financial summaries are detailed in Section 9.
DarMAERT Emergency Radio Equipment installed for use
100%$300,000
Emergency Planning and Response
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6
Resilience Academy
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Resilience Academy
BANK EXECUTED GRANTS
TURP funding is being used in the development of a curriculum to address
an identified gap in academic and professional knowledge on urban
resilience. This is anticipated to be a multi-year partnership with the major
Dar es Salaam universities, with potential to grow to other cities or online
open course content, as well as training colleges.
During this financial year, a MoU focused on urban resilience skills, tools,
and equipment was developed between the Bank’s legal department and
Ardhi University. The agreement aims to strengthen collaboration across
a range of schools within the university, including geoinformatics, spatial
planning and social science, geography, and economics. Engagement
areas include:
• Continuous engagement on Urban Exposure mapping through
Ramani Huria;
• Training in the analysis of resilience-related spatial data, including
flood modeling, damage assessment, and disaster risk management;
mapping of storm water drainage systems; transportation (public and
non-motorized transport); and development of ICT applications;
• Establishing a risk-mapping laboratory capable of supporting spatial
surveys, including topographic and infrastructure mapping, which will
maintain specialized equipment;
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• Training of University staff and students on operation
and maintenance of survey drones and related
equipment and processing of the produced images;
• Training and participation in the set-up and
maintenance of new hydro-meterological sensor
networks, including through the TAHMO;
• Organizing joint demonstrations for students and
staff to showcase the use of information, computer
technology, and spatial data in urban resilience
issues to promote citizen science and community
engagement;
• Developing a joint curriculum for training and
retraining of professionals on resilience mapping,
online sharing, and accessing data; and
• Generating contents that will feed into University
courses and pedagogical skills.
An Urban Flood Risk Mapping “Cookbook” is being
developed to guide the risk identification, modelling,
and mapping portion of curriculum content. An inception
report was submitted in June 2017. Due to delays in
the MoU signing, a pilot course at the Bachelor’s level
remains in early stages of discussion.
Students use new skills to map the infrastructure of an informal settlement
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Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank
Urban Resilience Academy
35
Bank Executed Grants
Financials The total grant amount available for TF0A4238 was USD
$570,000, 71% of which was disbursed or committed.
ACTIVITY OUTPUTS
Resilience Academy
MoU signed between Ardhi University and the World Bank
ITC-Twente University hired to develop an “Urban Flood Risk-Mapping Cookbook”
Delivery of a pilot Bachelor’s curriculum on urban flood-mapping under early discussions
100%$5,000
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TABLE 4: RESILIENCE ACADEMY ACTIVITY SUMMARY
ACTIVITY SUMMARY
36
ACTIVITY SUMMARY
Small Risk Reduction Actions Grant (Challenge Grant)
RECIPIENT EXECUTED GRANTS
ObjectiveThe activity will engage civil society organizations to support Msimbazi River
restoration, clean up, and community infrastructure management.
Execution ModeThis may be a bank-executed activity or a recipient-executed grant,
depending on procurement recommendations and execution options. The
amount of the grant is expected to be less than USD $2.5 million. A Bank
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Recipient Executed Grants
ObjectiveA technical scoping mission was conducted in February 2017, which recommended that TURP invest between USD
$20 million and USD $30 million in an additional financing to the World Bank’s ongoing Dar es Salaam Metropolitan
Development Project. The project concept note package has been developed and was approved by the Bank
management in July 2017. Given the financial cuts to the TURP budget and the persistently low exchange rate of the UK
pound sterling against the US dollar, the envisaged amount is expected in range of USD $20 million to USD $25 million.
The final resource allocation will depend on the results of technical reviews and available funds.
Government-Executed Risk-Reduction Grant
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ACTIVITY SUMMARY
Program Management
38
ACTIVITY SUMMARY
PROGRAM MANAGEMENT
ObjectiveProgram management and administration activities for the trust fund
include, but are not limited to, supporting program governance
arrangements and trust fund-related meetings; planning and executing
work plans and budgets; managing communications and conducting
outreach; disseminating lessons learned; reporting on progress; and
monitoring and evaluating the program.
Overview of Progress A conference was held from May 31 through June 2 to serve as a technical
launch for the program. The event brought donors, implementers, and
experts together to discuss the program structure, plans, and early
progress. Participants included:
• 200+ government officials from Tanzania
• 16 honourable guests from surrounding nations
• 75 journalists from 42 African countries
• 10 local CSO representatives
• Experts in the field of urban resilience
Technical workshops were conducted on the subjects of the Msimbazi
River Basin Flood Study, Open Data for Resilience, Early Warning and
Hydromet Improvements, and CSOs and Charrette Planning.
A post-conference survey found the event to be highly informative and
productive, with 57% rating it as excellent and 43% as very good. A
significant portion of attendees additionally noted that the conference
endowed them with five or more valuable connections.
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Program Management
ACTIVITY PROGRESS
Formation of a technical review committee Complete
Formulation of ToR and child activity concept note documents Complete
Evaluation of proposals and firm selections
9 grant applications reviewed and approved
26 consultants (13 Tanzanian) hired
9 firms selected
Knowledge capture and sharing
1 external website
1 internal knowledge repository
1 World Bank feature story
2 online videos
TABLE 5: PROGRAM MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION ACTIVITY SUMMARY
ACTIVITY PROGRESS
Partnership review note Complete
Administrative set-up of trust fund accounts Complete
Staff hiring and relocation Complete
Operations manual, 18-month workplan, and costing Complete
Annual reviews Complete
Communications, branding, and logos Complete
International conference and launch event Complete
SC meetingsOne in November 2016
One in July 2017
TABLE 6: SECRETARIAT ACTIVITY SUMMARY
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ACTIVITY SUMMARY
Challenges and Lessons LearnedTURP has been established as a programmatic trust fund.
As such, program design is not fixed, but expected to
evolve each year as new stakeholders, data, and priorities
arise. The first year of implementation is particularly
challenging as it has been characterized by tension
between the desire to implement the existing work plan
as fast as possible, and the need to revise and adjust both
technical components and administration arrangements,
based on new data and feedback from counterpart
agencies. Key challenges have included:
COUNTERPART AND STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT – TURP is an ambitious multi-
stakeholder agenda cutting across the whole of
government at local, municipal, and national levels.
Convening stakeholders and establishing an appropriate
structure for each level of engagement is time intensive,
as it requires developing relationships, sensitizing
counterparts, receiving feedback, and building
ownership. For example, some stakeholders have a
comparatively high degree of readiness to engage,
while others have been keen to participate but obliged
to follow internal decision-making processes. In a few
cases, key counterparts have be assigned new positions
and new focal points been onboarded. This process of
government and stakeholder engagement is vital for the
success of the program; the pace of activity, however, is
not easily predicted nor influenced.
ACCELERATED IMPLEMENTATION – During
the first DfID annual review (October 2016), TURP’s
implementation schedule was found to be significantly
delayed. A major cause for this finding was due to a
mismatch between the donor’s result framework and
implementation schedule, which followed an early
business case timeline and the Bank’s implementation
plan, which was updated during a partnership review
process in June 2016. Although the result frameworks
have now been harmonized, TURP was subjected to
a performance improvement plan by DfID with an
emphasis on accelerating the implementation actions.
This has left little time for evaluation of key assumptions
and stakeholders and training of new staff.
FRONT-LOADING OF COMMITMENTS – TURP
has also experienced pressure to revise its work plan and
front-load commitment schedules where possible. This
is due in part to DfID requests to minimize commitments
in 2018/2019 and shift funds to 2017 where possible, or
risk losing the funds altogether (see below). This request
has been met where possible by extending the scope
and duration of initial consultancy contracts and initiating
a number of training events earlier than planned. It is
challenging, however, to maintain quality control and
flexibility to revise operations when a large portion of
the program is committed up front. Front-loading can
be done, but care and time need to be taken to avoid
compromising quality.
BUDGETARY UNCERTAINTY AND CUT – While
the Bank team was aware of the possibility of a budget
cut to TURP since January 2017, there was a six-month
period of uncertainty regarding the size, timing, and
scope of cuts. Ultimately, a budget cut of USD $7.5 million
was determined by the donor in June 2017.
When measured in combination with the decline in the
GBP-to-USD exchange rate, this represents approximately
one-third of the budget cut to the original program
overall. This in turn has led to a challenging set of trade-
offs in terms of which activities to scale up to meet
front-loading requests, which to accelerate to advance
the implementation schedule, and which to hold or cut
entirely.
The budget reduction will impact all activities of TURP.
It is recognized that this reduction in funds creates
additional challenges for the program; an approach
that can minimize the impact is being assessed and an
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Program Management
amendment to the signed Administration Agreement is
being prepared.
RISK DATA UNCERTAINTY – Very little risk profiling
existed for Dar es Salaam at the start of TURP, so pressure
to move ahead with designing risk-reduction investments
is countered by the desire to wait for risk-assessment
results. Priority risk information activities on exposure
and hydrology were therefore accelerated. In the case
of Hydromet, however, the team is still beholden to the
timing of the rainy seasons and will not expect sufficient
flood data for detailed assessments until at least two
flood seasons have elapsed. The strategy has therefore
been to advance on two fronts: collecting the best risk
information as fast as possible, while simultaneously
designing risk plans that are fit for the available data. The
team believes that in the cases of community inundation
maps, community priorities can already be developed
on the basis of Ramani Huria flood atlas results, which is
a deterministic scenario set by communities themselves.
Financial protection measures and larger city-wide
investments will have to wait for more detailed loss
evaluation modelling work to complete. Within targeted
areas, such as lower Msimbazi, the flood mitigation
study is designed such that a majority of flood mitigation
actions can be identified early on under the “quick wins”
report. These represent generally well-known measures
for which the team has high confidence for a return
on investment. As better risk data becomes available,
assumptions can be updated and new analyses can be
undertaken on complementary measures as well as more
refined cost-benefit calculations.
Ardhi students working together to address obstacles in mapping
Credit: Chris Morgan - World Bank
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RESULTS
RESULTS
7
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Results Overview The results framework includes three targets at impact
level that intend to make urban areas in Tanzania more
resilient to climate risk:
1. Increased number of wards benefitting from or
implementing flood risk-mitigation measures
identified in ward-level risk management plans;
2. Improved capacity of government agencies to
identify, reduce, finance, and cope with disaster risks;
and
3. Reduced modelled economic losses in the Msimbazi
Valley as a result of the structural mitigation measures
designed.
At outcome level, with the intent to ensure urban local
governments in Tanzania utilize improved evidence base
and urban planning to strengthen resilience to climate-
related hazards, the results framework includes two
targets:
1. Number of persons benefitting from improved flood
resilience as a result of ICF support; and
2. Extent to which ICF intervention is likely to have a
transformational impact.
Intermediate results indicators, segregated into the three
pillars of priority for program implementation, are also
included, as well as specific indicators related to program
administration and recipient-executed works. These are
detailed in Table 7 below.
Activities implemented during FY17 nearly achieved all
goals set by the framework, with a few exceptions and
changes detailed in the following paragraphs.
Indicator 1.2 has not been measured by the means
originally envisaged due to delay in issuing the Risk
Management Index evaluation. This delay occurred
because of the need to thoroughly consult and engage
government counterparts in the methodology and
objectives of such an annual exercise. The first year target
value is for incipient.
An expert assessment of the emergency management
and response authorities as well as the national
disaster risk management plan concluded that the risk
management capacity in 2017 is incipient to moderate.
This is not the exact same methodology; it is proposed,
however, that this assessment stand as an interim
measure, whilst a more thorough excise is developed and
applied retroactively in 2018.
Indicator 1.3 is proposed to be modified from the
Probable Maximum Loss from a 1–100 flood event to the
Expected Annual Loss from flooding across all modelled
floods based on 2017 exposure. This event would better
capture short return period losses as well as major events,
and better represents the objective of the indicator. It also
aligns with the metric published in the April 2017 report
on Msimbazi flood losses by Anchor Environmental
Consultants.
Indicator 3.1, “Catalogue of existing structured exposure
and hazard data,” is partly completed. This particular task
for a catalogue of hazard and exposure data is in fact not
as discreet as first described, with several distinct steps
involved: data model, exposure mapping, and hazard
baselines.
The data model for exposure data (i.e., people, buildings,
and infrastructure and their associated vulnerabilities) has
been developed as a collaborative and multidisciplinary
process. This has exceeded the original expectations in
terms of scope and stakeholders, but it is considered
worthwhile for the long-term sustainability of the process.
The team worked with disaster risk experts (i.e., Deltares,
British Geological Survey, UCL), municipal councils, and
GIS experts to develop a model that incorporates both
vulnerability and disaster risk dimensions of exposure,
as well as key municipal service drives such as address,
meter numbers, property typologies, and age. This was
RESULTS
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RESULTS
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done to mainstream the risk considerations into the data
collection processes of municipal service providers.
Exposure mapping has been implemented through
building and drainage digitization and classification in Dar
es Salaam, and hosted on a geonode at the Commission
for Science and Technology. Additional geonodes for
catalogue hosting are planned at PO-RALG, PMO-DMD,
and Ardhi University and State University of Zanzibar.
Hazard layers are partially assembled but not yet
catalogued onto the geonodes.
Aerial imagery of rural surrounding of Dar es Salaam
Credit: Frederick Mbuya - World Bank
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RESULTS
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IND
ICA
TOR
BA
SELI
NE
FY1
7
DA
TA C
OLL
EC
TIO
N A
ND
RE
PO
RTI
NG
CO
MM
EN
TFR
EQ
UE
NC
YD
ATA
SO
UR
CE
RE
SPO
NSI
BIL
ITY
Imp
act
Ind
icat
ors
: Urb
an a
reas
in T
anza
nia
are
mo
re r
esili
ent
to c
limat
e ri
sk
1.1
Num
ber
of w
ard
s b
enefi
ting
fro
m o
r im
ple
men
ting
floo
d ri
sk-
miti
gat
ion
mea
sure
s id
entifi
ed
in w
ard
-leve
l ris
k m
anag
emen
t p
lans
00
/ 0A
nnua
llyRe
gio
nal
Ad
min
istr
ativ
e Se
cret
ary
PO-R
ALG
and
ULG
As
resp
ond
ing
to e
xper
t-le
d s
urve
y
This
ind
icat
or tr
acks
the
exte
nt to
whi
ch
stru
ctur
al a
nd n
on-s
truc
tura
l ris
k-re
duc
tion
mea
sure
s ar
e id
entifi
ed in
loca
l gov
ernm
ent
pla
ns a
nd im
ple
men
ted
1.2
Imp
rove
d c
apac
ity o
f g
over
nmen
t ag
enci
es to
iden
tify,
re
duc
e, fi
nanc
e, a
nd c
ope
with
d
isas
ter r
isks
Low
Inci
pie
nt /
NA
Ann
ually
Dis
aste
r ris
k m
anag
emen
t in
dex
PO-R
ALG
and
ULG
As
resp
ond
ing
to e
xper
t-le
d s
urve
y
Wei
ght
ed in
dex
of a
dva
nces
mad
e in
in
term
edia
te o
utco
me
ind
icat
ors
for P
illar
s 1,
2, a
nd 3
. Ass
essm
ent b
ased
on
Dar
es
Sala
am a
nd in
clud
ing
mea
sure
s fo
r fina
ncia
l p
rote
ctio
n.
1.3
Mod
elle
d e
cono
mic
loss
es in
th
e M
sim
baz
i Bas
in re
duc
ed a
s a
resu
lt of
str
uctu
ral r
isk-
miti
gat
ion
mea
sure
s d
esig
ned
N/A
2017
bas
elin
e PM
L w
ithou
t w
orks
Ann
ually
Prob
abili
stic
Fl
ood
mod
el
PO-R
ALG
and
ULG
As
resp
osib
ile fo
r exp
ert-
led
sur
vey
An
exp
ecte
d re
duc
tion
in th
e Pr
obab
ly
Max
imum
Los
s (P
ML)
for t
he 1
-100
retu
rn
per
iod
floo
d in
Msi
mb
azi b
asin
, bas
ed o
n 20
17 e
xpos
ure,
whe
n co
mp
arin
g 2
017
inte
rven
tions
and
TU
RP s
upp
orte
d
Ou
tco
me
Ind
icat
ors
: Urb
an lo
cal g
ove
rnm
ents
in T
anza
nia
uti
lize
imp
rove
d e
vid
ence
bas
e an
d u
rban
pla
nn
ing
to
str
eng
then
re
silie
nce
to
clim
ate-
rela
ted
haz
ard
s
2.1
Num
ber
of p
erso
ns b
enefi
ting
fro
m im
pro
ved
floo
d re
silie
nce
as
a re
sult
of IC
F su
pp
ort
00
/ 0A
nnua
llyFl
ood
risk
and
ex
pos
ure
mod
elW
orld
Ban
k
Pop
ulat
ion
estim
ate
bas
ed o
n ce
nsus
dat
a,
hous
ehol
d d
ata,
ass
ocia
ted
with
dw
ellin
gs
and
bus
ines
ses
exp
osed
to fl
ood
haz
ard
s,
and
mod
elle
d to
exp
ect r
educ
ed lo
sses
as
a re
sult
of IC
F in
terv
entio
ns (e
.g.,
new
/imp
rove
d
dra
ins,
ear
ly w
arni
ng s
yste
ms,
and
/or fl
ood
sh
elte
rs) (
Dar
es
Sala
am o
nly)
2.2
Exte
nt to
whi
ch IC
F in
terv
entio
n is
like
ly to
hav
e a
tran
sfor
mat
iona
l im
pac
t0
1 / T
BD
Ann
ually
Ann
ual R
evie
wD
fIDN
arra
tive
rep
ort m
ade
dur
ing
DfID
ann
ual
revi
ew p
roce
ss. A
sco
re b
etw
een
1 an
d 4
will
b
e as
sig
ned
.
Res
ults
Fra
mew
ork
TAB
LE 7
: FY1
7 R
ESU
LTS
FR
AM
EW
OR
K
46
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FY1
7
DA
TA C
OLL
EC
TIO
N A
ND
RE
PO
RTI
NG
CO
MM
EN
TFR
EQ
UE
NC
YD
ATA
SO
UR
CE
RE
SPO
NSI
BIL
ITY
Inte
rmed
iate
Res
ult
Ind
icat
ors
Pilla
r 1: R
isk
Iden
tifica
tion
3.1
Imp
rove
d a
cces
s to
clim
ate
risk
info
rmat
ion
in D
ar e
s Sa
laam
Not
yet
av
aila
ble
Cat
alog
ue
of e
xist
ing
st
ruct
ured
ex
pos
ure
and
ha
zard
dat
a co
mp
lete
d /
d
ata
mod
el
and
exp
osur
e co
mp
lete
, ha
zard
par
tially
co
mp
lete
Ann
ually
Bas
ed o
n in
dic
ator
s 3.
1 –
3.4,
4.3
, and
4.6
A g
eosp
atia
l dat
a p
orta
l will
ser
ve a
s a
rep
osito
ry fo
r inf
orm
atio
n at
bot
h na
tiona
l and
su
bna
tiona
l lev
els
3.2
Exp
osur
e an
d ri
sk
asse
ssm
ents
ap
plie
d in
maj
or
citie
s (c
umul
ativ
e nu
mb
er)
0
Pilo
t sat
ellit
e-b
ased
exp
osur
e m
onito
ring
se
rvic
e la
unch
ed
/ Con
firm
ed
laun
ched
with
Pl
anet
Lab
s an
d E
astV
iew
G
eosp
atia
l
Ann
ually
Clim
ate
risk
geo
nod
e re
pos
itory
PO-R
ALG
Stan
dar
diz
ed e
xpos
ure,
haz
ard
, and
risk
m
onito
ring
tool
s w
ill b
e d
evel
oped
firs
t as
pilo
ts a
nd a
pp
lied
acr
oss
urb
an c
entr
es.
Thes
e se
rvic
es w
ill s
erve
as
a m
onito
ring
tool
fo
r inv
estm
ent n
eed
s (b
uild
-up
of v
ulne
rab
le
pop
ulat
ion
in h
azar
d a
reas
), b
asel
ines
for
exp
osur
e p
opul
atio
ns, a
nd a
sup
por
t too
l fo
r dev
elop
men
t and
imp
rove
d la
nd u
se
pla
nnin
g.
Pilla
r 2: R
isk
Red
uctio
n
4.1
Cum
ulat
ive
num
ber
of p
eop
le
dire
ctly
eng
aged
in c
limat
e ris
k-re
duc
tion
activ
ities
- nu
mb
er a
nd
per
cent
age
of fe
mal
es (W
B c
ore
ind
icat
or)
0
0 / 50 (o
f whi
ch 2
5 fe
mal
e)
Ann
ually
Part
icip
ant l
ists
an
d re
gis
trat
ions
fro
m tr
aini
ngs
and
eve
nts
Wor
ld B
ank
This
ind
icat
or is
a ta
rget
ed a
nd H
igh-
Inte
nsity
IC
F In
dic
ator
that
trac
ks th
e tr
aini
ng o
f in
div
idua
ls in
und
erst
and
ing
risk
info
rmat
ion,
an
d a
naly
zing
and
ap
ply
ing
risk
dat
a
4.2
Com
mun
ity ri
sk-r
educ
tion
pla
ns d
evel
oped
usi
ng im
pro
ved
ris
k in
form
atio
n (c
umul
ativ
e nu
mb
er)
00
/ 0A
nnua
llyW
ard
Offi
ces
and
LG
As
Wor
ld B
ank
This
ind
icat
or d
irect
ly tr
acks
the
pro
gre
ss o
f ris
k-re
duc
tion
pla
nnin
g o
n a
com
mun
ity le
vel
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ICA
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SELI
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FY1
7
DA
TA C
OLL
EC
TIO
N A
ND
RE
PO
RTI
NG
CO
MM
EN
TFR
EQ
UE
NC
YD
ATA
SO
UR
CE
RE
SPO
NSI
BIL
ITY
4.3
Gov
ernm
ent r
isk-
red
uctio
n ac
tiviti
es0
Con
cep
t not
e ap
pro
ved
for
larg
e g
rant
(<
$20
mill
ion)
/ Con
cep
t M
emo
A
pp
rove
d
Ann
ually
Secr
etar
iat
Wor
ld B
ank
This
ind
icat
or tr
acks
:Pr
ogre
ss to
war
ds
sig
ning
of g
rant
s (w
ill h
ave
own
resu
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RESULTS
48
RISKS
RISKS
8
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The risk assessment presented during the program concept review is updated
in Annex II. The main change is an upgrade in the risk rating from moderate to
substantial.
The key changes to the risk rating involve the following:
Stakeholder engagement and coordination The Urban Resilience program is tending towards greater complexity with
many stakeholders involved at local, municipal, and national levels. It will
be increasingly difficult to manage expectations on timelines, priorities,
and resource allocations across the spectrum. The strategy of the team is to
engage and empower national champions; the prime minister’s office Disaster
Management Department, and the president’s office Regional Administration
and Local Government are key conveners and coordinators across the national
system and with municipal governments. In addition, certain specialized
agencies, such as Tanzania Meteorological Authority, Ministry of Lands,
and National Environmental Council will be key in specific work areas. The
challenge is to maintain clear coordination and consultation with stakeholders
of divergent priorities or whose goals may change over time.
Budgetary cuts, uncertainty, and sequencing The program has already experienced a cut of approximate USD $7.5 million.
The deterioration in the GBP-to-USD exchange rate has also compounded
the situation. When the TF agreement was signed, the budget envelop was
estimated to be USD $55 million; this is now projected at USD $37 million.
Whilst cuts to the planned activities have been made, these currently represent
the minimum necessary cuts such that the overall program remains ambitious
for the new resource envelop. Exchange rate risks remain, and should the GBP
fall further against the USD, further activities will need to be scaled back and
increase risk to development objectives.
Also at risk is the sequencing of funds flow. When originally designed, the TF
program envisaged a slow build-up of commitments and increasing transfers
from the donor to the Bank in line with projected expenditures. In practice,
however, both the transfer schedule and the commitment schedule are
RISKS
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RISKS
under pressure to front-load resources. Front-loading in the early stages of the
program is possible, but carries a risk that commitment decisions are made
under limited data and feedback. A further constraint that was not foreseen
during design is the restriction on making commitments during January to
March each year. This time period represent the pre-flood season, during
which unforeseen needs relating to preparedness may arise. Overall the
reduced budget, front-loading of commitments, and restrictions on January to
March contracting, reduce the flexibility of the program to respond to shocks.
Environmental, social, and security TURP tackles some of the greatest challenges in the Msimbazi Valley relating to
flood risk and risk management. The first year has identified that risks related
to working in the target areas may be significant. These relate to the social and
livelihood complexities, environmental concerns, and possible adverse effects
of a major flood or other similar emergency.
Social issues in the Msimbazi center on the demolitions of encroaching
buildings or large scale resettlement activities, and unsuccessful historic
resettlements in the area as well as the provision of alternative livelihoods for
the various communities making a living from the river (e.g., sand mining,
urban farming). This program does not envisage engaging directly in any
demolition or resettlement activities; the issue is a sensitive one, however,
that must be treated with care. There is a risk to the program if community
grievances are not well managed and it is of paramount importance that
safeguard policies be followed.
The environmental concerns center on the river basin and activities linked
to dredging of the rivers and disposal of waste materials. Erosion and
environmental specialists may be needed to review mangrove and other
habitat concerns, and if needed an environmental impact assessment will be
required from the government before proceeding with any work.
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LOOKING AHEAD
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LOOKING AHEAD
The second year of TURP anticipates a shift into
investment operations, with the largest part of
commitments being a government-executed
grant. Preparation of the grant has begun and Bank
management has approved a Dar es Salaam Flood Risk
Management Project, which is the working title for the
Msimbazi-focused flood mitigation work as well as city-
wide capacity building and equipment needs. It should
be noted that the entire grant amount (estimated GBP
19,200,000) is now reflected as a FY18 commitment.
Although disbursements by the government are
expected from 2018 to 2021, the Bank’s schedule of
transfers to the government has not been determined
yet. For the Bank to process this grant, the TURP trustee
account must either receive the projected commitment
in full or the administration agreement must be amended
to adopt a cost-plus structure. This issue should be
addressed in the next SC meeting.
Another new workstream for FY18 will be the
engagement of civil society as a complement to the
large investment package. This activity is currently listed
as a recipient-executed Civil Society Basin Restoration
child activity; the team is assessing the option to proceed
as Bank executed, however, which may afford more
flexibility and efficiency. A recommendation will be
presented at the next SC.
The remainder of the Bank-executed technical assistance
is expected to continue at greater pace with significant
scale-up of Pillar 2 activities, which are planned to make
use of newly available data and methods. Testing and
training on flood early warning systems will also begin in
the next year.
Table 8 presents the projected workplan activities for
the next year in GBP. Approximately GBP 24.2 million
in commitments is the target, of which GBP 14.6 million
should be disbursed within the year. These estimates will
guide the program management and funds transfers,
however the contracts will be signed in either USD or
TZS and so actual amounts are subject to revisions. A
major portion of these funds depends on the approval
and timing of the Dar es Salaam Flood Risk Management
Project.
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ACTIVITY FY17DISBURSEMENT
FY18DISBURSEMENT
FY18COMMITMENTS
Total £1,286,000 £14,611,000 £24,241,000
PA Program Management £110,000 £60,000 £100,000TA Program Coordination & Quality Assurance £60,000 £30,000 £50,000
Knowledge Sharing £50,000 £30,000 £50,000
Pillar 1 - Risk Identification £435,000 £1,740,000 £1,335,000
Risk Evaluation £375,000 £1,660,000 £1,255,000
Historical Events Inventory £0 £90,000 £90,000
Risk Management Index £10,000 £145,000 £150,000
Vulnerability Index £5,000 £70,000 £80,000
Elevation Model and Exposure Mapping £50,000 £100,000 £80,000
Land Use and Structure (Community Mapping) £50,000 £385,000 £35,000
Satellite Data Mapping Cities £100,000 £100,000 £80,000
Hydrological Study £100,000 £150,000 £10,000
Spatial Data Management & Hosting £50,000 £120,000 £145,000
Dar es Salaam Probabilistic Flood Risk Evaluation £10,000 £500,000 £585,000
Research Program on Poverty and Disaster £60,000 £80,000 £80,000
Pillar 2 - Risk Reduction £343,000 £1,330,000 £1,535,000
Risk Mitigation Planning £160,000 £500,000 £570,000
Msibmazi Flood Risk Infrastructure Diagnostic £80,000 £140,000 £10,000
Other just-in-time technical assistance £50,000 £100,000 £150,000
Land use planning and building codes £0 £60,000 £90,000
ICT Systems for Risk Management (Drains Maintenance) £30,000 £200,000 £320,000
Msimbazi River Revitalization £60,000 £175,000 £340,000
Msimbazi charrette and area plan £35,000 £75,000 £190,000
Msimbazi River Basin Management Plan £25,000 £100,000 £150,000
Community Risk Reduction £40,000 £245,000 £285,000
Participatory climate risk plans, training, behavior change £15,000 £200,000 £250,000
Socioeconomic study £25,000 £45,000 £35,000
Urbanization Review - Resilience Planning £8,000 £75,000 £75,000
TABLE 8: DISBURSEMENT PLAN FOR FY18 IN GBP
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LOOKING AHEAD
ACTIVITY FY17DISBURSEMENT
FY18DISBURSEMENT
FY18COMMITMENTS
Pillar 3 - Emergency Preparedness and Response
£225,000 £895,000 £1,100,000
Emergency Planning and Response £225,000 £445,000 £700,000
DARMAERT contingency plan and SOP £55,000 £90,000 £65,000
equipment £100,000 £10,000 £10,000
Municipal contingency plans £0 £75,000 £150,000
Community response plans £50,000 £150,000 £295,000
Training, exercises, and drills £0 £70,000 £130,000
Damage assessment capacity building £20,000 £50,000 £50,000
Early Warning Systems £0 £450,000 £400,000
Local Early Warning and Early Action £0 £250,000 £200,000
Forecast and Flood Advisories £0 £200,000 £200,000
Resilience Academy £75,000 £335,000 £265,000
Curriculum for Risk Mapping £50,000 £100,000 £70,000
Resilience Academy Risk Awareness and Prevention £10,000 £160,000 £110,000
Capacity building and training in risk data and systems £15,000 £75,000 £85,000
Recipient Executed Works £0 £10,400,000 £19,900,000Dar es Salaam Flood Risk Management Project £0 £9,600,000 £19,200,000
Equipment £0 £400,000 £400,000
Feasibility study and designs £0 £500,000 £900,000
Msimbazi Works £0 £8,300,000 £17,000,000
Capacity Building £0 £100,000 £400,000
Safeguards £0 £300,000 £500,000
Civil Society Basin Restoration £0 £800,000 £700,000
River restoration £0 £400,000 £300,000
Cleanest MTAA program scale-up £0 £400,000 £400,000
Secretariat £173,000 £186,000 £311,000MoU launch event £0 £25,000 £25,000
International conference series £60,000 £25,000 £150,000
Communications plan development £4,000 £5,000 £5,000
Steering committee meetings £1,000 £1,000 £1,000
Communications, websites, and media £7,000 £5,000 £5,000
M&E baseline data collection £1,000 £5,000 £5,000
Publications (update resilience report/editing/printing) £10,000 £10,000 £10,000
Annual review £10,000 £10,000 £10,000
Staffing £60,000 £100,000 £100,000
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FINANCIALS
10
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FINANCIALS
Financial Overview Total contribution from the TF in FY17 amounted to
USD $4.7 million, with $439,000 paid in 2016 and $4.3
million paid in 2017. Total project disbursements reached
USD $1.3 million and an additional commitment of
$1.9 million. This left a balance of USD $1.4 million in
contributions at the end of FY17. As this report comes
at the end of the first full financial year since program
inception, these contributions, disbursements, and
commitments are also cumulative totals.
REPORTING PERIOD ENDED JUNE 30, 2017 (USD)
Funds Committed by DfID $44,916,550*
Funds Received from DfID $4,798,030
Total Funds Available $3,246,335
Total Funds Committed or Allocated $4,700,000
Total Disbursement $1,333,655
Cash Balance at the End of FY17 $1,331,287
Funds Available for Commitment and/or Allocation $517,440
Outstanding DFID Commitments at End of FY17 $40,118,520
TABLE 8: DISBURSEMENT PLAN FOR FY18 IN GBP
12%$480,000
15%$570,000
31%$1,220,000
42%$1,630,000
Pillar 1Pillar 2
Pillar 3ResilienceAcademy
*AMOUNT AS INDICATED IN CLIENT CONNECTION, NOT YET AMENDED TO REFLECT JUNE 12, 2017 DFID BUDGET CUT
ALLOCATION OF TURP PROJECT PILLAR FUNDS IN FY17
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BE
TF A
CTI
VIT
YTO
TAL
BU
DG
ET
ALL
OC
ATE
D
(USD
)
FY1
7D
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ata
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15
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350,
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59%
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azi R
iver
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,000
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0,00
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%
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,00
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73
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TAB
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0: S
UM
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RS
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EN
TS F
OR
BETF
AC
TIVI
TIES
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ANNEXES
ANNEXES
11
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ANNEX I - COMMUNICATIONS Communication productsPreliminary efforts to establish and improve
communications of TURP activities have been centered
around the development of an outward-facing website
and an internal platform for collaboration. Beyond those
initiatives, a select few communication products have
secured valuable exposure for the program:
• The Ramani Huria Atlas for Flood Resilience was
published in October 2016 and launched at the
Ramani Huria Closing Workshop the following
month. The Atlas received praise from all workshop
attendees, but particularly from its target audience,
Dar es Salaam ward executive officers. It has been
reported that these community officials are making
great use of the data contained within the products,
including general maps, drainage maps, and flood
inundation maps for 21 city wards. The publication
has now been made available online via the digital
publishing platform, issuu, where it has received
3,277 impressions to date.
• The TURP-funded Zanzibar Mapping Initiative was
featured in a World Bank video titled, “Mapping
Zanzibar using Low-Cost Drones”.This video went
viral on Facebook, receiving over 370,000 views,
1,800 likes, and 870 shares.
A summary of key World Bank communications products
related to TURP FY17 can be found in Table 11.
OUTPUT CATEGORY LOCATIONProgramme Collaboration for Development
Website https://collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/tanzania-urban-resilience-online-community
Programme Website
Website http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/tanzania-urban-resilience-program
Ramani Huria Atlas for Flood Resilience
Reporthttps://issuu.com/ramanihuria/docs/ramani_huria_atlas_final
Problems of Population Growth and Climate Change Converge in Dar es Salaam
Feature Storyhttp://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/05/31/problems-of-population-growth-and-climate-change-converge-in-dar-es-salaam
Ramani Huria Project Website
Website http://ramanihuria.org/
Urban Resilience for Tanzania
Videohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmHwiOhd5_0&feature=youtu.be
How Tanzanians are Mapping their Own City to Solve Flooding
Videohttp://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2016/11/01/how-tanzanians-are-mapping-their-own-city-to-solve-flooding
TABLE 11: KEY COMMUNICATION PRODUCTS
ANNEXES
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ANNEXES
EventsThe programme team organized and hosted a number of events
over FY17 to engage implementation partners, facilitate knowledge
transfer, encourage collaboration, and showcase progress.
RAMANI HURIA CLOSING WORKSHOP
The Ramani Huria Closing Workshop took place on November 7
and 8 at the National Museum in Dar es Salaam. This workshop
provided community mappers, government officials, and experts
in the field with an opportunity to showcase the innovative pilot
project’s outputs, reflect on methods used, and elicit opinion on the
future of mapping for development in Tanzania.
URTZ: BUILDING URBAN RESILIENCE IN TANZANIA From May 31 through June 2, 2017, the TURP technical launch
conference brought 350+ government officials, donors, and experts
together to imagine a future of resilient urbanization in Tanzania and
surrounding nations. An interactive agenda of technical sessions
on day two were particularly useful in laying groundwork for
collaborative implementation of programme activities.
The launch was attended by 75 journalists from across the continent
who learned how to better report on issues of urbanization. The
journalists’ articles were featured by news agencies spanning an
extensive geographic and linguistic territory. Some of these articles
included:
• worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/05/31/problems-of-
population-growth-and- climate-change-converge-in-dar-es-
salaam
• http://groupelavenir.org/en-tanzanie-dart-met-en-place-
un-mode-de-transport-qui- prend-en-compte-laspect-
environnemental/
• http://www.herald.ng/world-bank-calls-improved-infrastructure-
african-cities/
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RISK AREA
RISK RATING(L, M, S,
H)
RISK DESCRIPTION UPDATE AND REMARKS
Strategic
Alignment with strategic objectives
TF outcomes
L
TF may not align with the country strategies nor meet client’s demand.
The outcomes of the TFs may not contribute to the outcomes of the CPF Result Framework on urban services and environment and natural resources.
Prime minister’s office Disaster Management Dept and president’s office Regional Administration have been invited to SC. A Technical Advisory Committee including 10 agencies also created. The new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) is being reviewed for climate resilience considerations. The recipient-executed components of TF shall be appraised by management in view of CPF priorities.
Stakeholder
Coordination
Approval Delays
S
There is a lack of coordination and communication amongst the TTLs of TF-financed activities, and between the TTLs and the TF manager.
The donor’s approval of the annual work program may be delayed.
A SC is established with representation from the GoT, World Bank, and DFID. Annual work program will be discussed and agreed for the following year. Reports will be submitted from TTL to TF manager before the annual SC meeting.
Most themes and activities are identified in advance and donor agreements obtained during the TF preparation. Any change will be discussed early with the donor to facilitate in time approval of changes.
Financial
Donor commitment
Fiduciary S
The donor may fail to contribute the funds as committed due to unexpected shortfall of funds.
Misuse of funds in RETF activities.
Funds approved by DFID ministers on 17 September 2015. Cut of GBP 5,767,556 communicated by donor June 13, 2017. Further cuts possible.
All RETF activities will follow the Bank’s procurement procedures. Ongoing DfID and World Bank oversight, e.g., through supervision missions and procurement reviews, will monitor risk.
Operational
Staffing levelsM
Technical staff and management changeover in the field could impact priority of the TF activities.
A TF operational manual has been drafted to clarify and obtain consensus on more detailed roles and responsibilities.
TABLE 1: RISK IDENTIFICATION ACTIVITY SUMMARY
ANNEXES
ANNEX II - UPDATED RISK ASSESSMENT
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ANNEXES
RISK AREA
RISK RATING(L, M, S,
H)
RISK DESCRIPTION UPDATE AND REMARKS
Relationship*
Change in government priorities
LThe government is developing a national DRM framework, which may present demand for TF resources outside of urban flood focus area.
The program believes that the main thread to sustainable growth in Tanzania is urban resilience and will communicate this based on data. Nevertheless, TURP may face pressure to adjust to additional priorities of government.
Security*
Emergency L
An emergency declaration either in Dar es salaam or nationally, due to natural hazard (flood, earthquake) or other, could result in major restructuring of the program and risk to the sustainability of investments prioritised so far.
The program aims to develop as much preparedness as possible in the short term and to communicate the value of investing in long term risk reduction.
Social and Environmental*
Social Safeguards
Environmental Risk
M
Continued GoT-led demolitions of structures in Msimbazi Valley and reputational risk to the World Bank/DfID.
A number of flood mitigation activities considered under the program, such as dredging, removal of dredged material, vegetation removal, and construction of retention basins, may have environmental impacts on local flora and fauna. Additionally, additional studies and surveys may contribute to program delays in achieving objectives.
World Bank country director and CMU team have met with the ministers from MLHHSD and NEMC to inform them of the potential risks to the Bank’s portfolio from the ongoing demolitions. WB social safeguards policies will apply to any TURP activities.
The program will identify if environmental impact assessments are necessary as early as possible and design flood mitigation measures in the context of local environment and ecosystem services. In all cases, WB environmental safeguard policies will be followed.
Overall Rating S
*=NEWLY ADDED RISK OR RISK TAKING
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A
NN
EX II
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iona
l C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
43,
200
Tanz
ania
n C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
43,
300
Hum
anita
rian
O
pen
Str
eet M
ap
Team
, USA
USD
524
,900
DEL
FT U
nive
rsity
of T
echn
olo
gy,
N
ethe
rlan
ds
USD
199
,700
Inte
rnat
iona
l C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
112
,100
Tanz
ania
n C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
44,
800
CO
WI T
AN
ZAN
IAU
SD 5
24,9
00
Inte
rnat
iona
l C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
16,
400
Inte
rnat
iona
l C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
21,
400
Inte
rnat
iona
l C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
16,
000
Tanz
ania
n C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
63,
400
AG
LEX
TAN
ZAN
IAU
SD 1
28,5
00
Inte
rnat
iona
l C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
53,
700
Tanz
ania
n C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
18,
900
Hum
anita
rian
O
pen
Str
eet M
ap
Team
, USA
USD
225
,000
ITC
, Net
herl
and
sU
SD 2
05,6
00
Inte
rnat
iona
l C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
45,
700
Inte
rnat
iona
l C
ons
ulta
nts
USD
88,
850
ULT
RA
DES
IGN
S,
USA
USD
3,3
00
Ord
inan
ceSu
rvey
In
tern
atio
nal,
UK
USD
35,
000
STIT
CH
ING
D
ELTA
RES
, N
ethe
rlan
ds
USD
45,
000
Ris
k Ev
alua
tion
+
Info
MG
MT
USD
1,4
80,0
00
Emer
gen
cy
Plan
ning
+
Resp
ons
eU
SD 4
80,0
00
Resi
lienc
e A
cad
emy
USD
570
,000
Tech
nica
l Re
view
ers
+
Des
ign
USD
230
,000
Secr
etar
iat +
C
onf
eren
ces
USD
500
,000
Ris
k M
itig
atio
nU
SD 8
50,0
00M
sim
baz
i Riv
er
Revi
taliz
atio
nU
SD 2
65,0
00
Urb
aniz
atio
n Re
view
USD
105
,000
PILL
AR
2R
isk
Red
uctio
n M
easu
res
PILL
AR
3Pr
epar
edne
ss
and
Em
erg
ency
M
anag
emen
t
RES
ILIE
NC
E A
CA
DEM
YSE
CR
ETA
RIA
T
PLED
GED
ANNEXES
// U
rban
Res
ilien
ce A
nnua
l Rep
ort
2017
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