Argonne National Laboratory is managed by The University of Chicagofor the U.S. Department of Energy

Updated Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Results of Fuel Ethanol

Michael WangCenter for Transportation ResearchEnergy Systems DivisionArgonne National Laboratory

The 15th International Symposium on Alcohol FuelsSan Diego, CASeptember 26-28, 2005

2

U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production Has Experienced Large Increases, and the Trend Will Continue

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Mill

ions

of g

allo

ns

Actual ProductionEnergy Bill Requirement

Source: Renewable Fuels Association

3

Argonne Has Conducted Life Cycle Analyses of Transportation Fuels for More Than 25 Years

Its Center for Transportation Research has analyzed energy and emission effects of transportation fuels for DOE since 1980s

With DOE support, Argonne began to develop the GREET model in 1995

GREET is a life cycle model for transportation fuels and vehicletechnologies

It contains more than 85 transportation fuel pathways including four fuel ethanol pathways

GREET is in the public domain; there are more than 2,000 registered users worldwide

Since 1997, Argonne has used GREET to evaluate fuel ethanol’s energy and emission effects; this presentation summarizes updated GREET results for fuel ethanol

4

Comparative Results Between Ethanol and Gasoline Are More Relevant to Policy Debate

5

Even Though Electricity Has a Large Negative Net Energy Balance, There Is No Substitute for Its Main Uses

Coal Mining

CoalTransportation

NGProcessing

NGTransmission

NGRecovery

Coal NG

Diesel FuelElectricity

NG

Diesel Fuel

NGElectricity

LPG, NGLs

NGElectricity

Electricity Generation

Electricity Transmissionand Distribution (8% loss)

1 mm Btu of Electricityat Wall Outlets

Uranium Ore Recovery Petroleum

Recovery

Uranium Petroleum

Uranium OreTransportation

PetroleumTransportation

OtherPetroleumProducts

Residual Oil

ElectricityDiesel Fuel

NG

Uranium Enrichment

Petroleum Refinery

Electricity

Refinery Gas

CoalNG

Uranium Fuel Transportation

Residual Oil TransportationDiesel Fuel

Residual Oil

ElectricityNG

Diesel FuelElectricity

NG

U.S. Electricity Generation:2.34 mm Btu Fossil Energy Input

for each 1.00 mm Btu Electricity Output

6

Energy in Different Fuels Can Have Very Different Qualities

Increase in Energy Quality

Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) = energy in fuel/fossil energy input

10.31

1.36

0.980.81

0.45

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Cell. EtOH Corn EtOH Coal Gasoline Electricity

7

Accurate Ethanol Energy Analysis Must Account for Increased Productivity in Farming Over Time

Based on historical USDA data; results are 3-year moving averages

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Bus

hels

/lb. F

ertil

izer

?

Precision farming, etc.?

U.S. Corn Output Per Pound of Fertilizer Has Risen by 70% in The Past 35 Years

8

Improved Technology Has Reduced Energy Use and Operating Costs in Corn Ethanol Plants

Source: from Argonne’s discussions with ethanol plant designers, recent USDA data, and other reported data.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Btu

/Gal

lon

Wet Mill Dry Mill

1980s2000s

9

One-Third of Corn Kernel Mass Ends as Animal Feed (a Co-Product) in Ethanol Plants

Protein

Dis

tille

rs D

ry

Gra

ins

and

Solu

bles

(DD

GS)

EthanolStarch

Carbon Dioxide

Dairy: 46%

Beef: 39%

Poultry: 4%

Swine: 11%

2003 North American DDGS Consumption

Source: Commodity Specialist Co. (in RFA, 2005)

10

Accounting for Animal Feed Is a Critical Factor in Ethanol’s Lifecycle Analysis Allocation Method Wet milling Dry milling Weight 52% 51% Energy content 43% 39% Process energy 36% 41% Market value 30% 24% Displacement ~16% ~20%

• Weight and energy methods are no longer used• Argonne uses the displacement method, the most conservative approach• Some studies do not consider co-products at all

11

Cellulosic Ethanol Plants Will Be Significantly More Efficient than Corn Ethanol Plants

Steam

Biomass Feedstock Pretreatment Fermentation Separation

Power Plant: Gas and/or Steam Turbine Electricity Effluent

Discharge

Emissions

Fuel Ethanol

Wastewater

Emissions Emissions

EmissionsSolid Residue and Methane Wastewater

Treatment

Plants under intensive R&D efforts are designed to use the unfermentable portion of biomass to generate steam and electricity.

12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

RFG CornEtOH:

DM

CornEtOH:

WM

Cell.EtOH

RFG CornEtOH:

DM

CornEtOH:

WM

Cell.EtOH

RFG CornEtOH:

DM

CornEtOH:

WM

Cell.EtOH

Btu for Fuel ProductionBtu in Fuel

Energy Effects of Fuel Ethanol Depend on the Type of Energy Being Analyzed

Total Btu Spent for One Btu of Gasoline and Ethanol Available at Fuel Pumps

Total Energy

Fossil Energy

Petroleum Energy

13

Use of Ethanol to Replace Gasoline Results in Fossil Energy and Petroleum Reduction Benefits

2.1% 4.7%

24.3%

52.3%

-3.2% -6.5%

-32.9%

-69.1%

-6.3% -6.3%

-69.5% -70.0%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

E10 GV:CornEtOH

E10 GV:Cell.EtOH

E85FFV:CornEtOH

E85FFV:Cell.EtOH

E10 GV:CornEtOH

E10 GV:Cell.EtOH

E85FFV:CornEtOH

E85FFV:Cell.EtOH

E10 GV:CornEtOH

E10 GV:Cell.EtOH

E85FFV:CornEtOH

E85FFV:Cell.EtOH

Total Energy

Fossil Energy Petroleum Energy

Change in Per-Mile Energy Use by Ethanol Blend to Displace Gasoline

14

Ethanol Blends, Especially E85 Made from Cellulosic Ethanol, Can Significantly Reduce GHG Emissions

Reductions in Per-Mile GHG Emissions by Ethanol Blend to Displace Gasoline

-2% -2%-6%

-23%-17%

-64%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

E10 GV: DMCorn EtOH

E10 GV: WMCorn EtOH

E10 GV: Cell.EtOH

E85 FFV: DMCorn EtOH

E85 FFV: WMCorn EtOH

E85 FFV:Cell. EtOH

15

Corn EtOH Reduces GHGs by 18-29% While Cellulosic EtOHYields 85-86% Reduction, on Per Gallon Basis of EtOH Used

GHG Emission Reductions Per Gallon of Ethanol to Displace An Energy-Equivalent Amount of Gasoline

-26%-18%

-85%

-29%-21%

-86%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

E10 GV: DMCorn EtOH

E10 GV: WMCorn EtOH

E10 GV: Cell.EtOH

E85 FFV: DMCorn EtOH

E85 FFV: WMCorn EtOH

E85 FFV: Cell.EtOH

16

Most of the Recent Corn EtOH Studies Show a Positive Net Energy Balance

-120,000

-100,000

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Net

Ene

rgy

Val

ue (B

tu/g

allo

n)

Ho

Marland&Turhollow

Pim ente l

Pim ente lKeeney&DeLuca

Lorenz&Morris

Shapouri e t al.

Wang et al.

Agri. Canada

Kim &DaleGraboski

Wang

Pim ente l

Shapouri e t al.

Pim entel&Patzek

Weinblatt e t al.

NR Canada

Cham bers et al.

Patzek

DelucchiKim &Dale

Wan

g

GRE

ET

w/P

imen

tel

Ass

umpt

ions

Energy balance here is defined as Btu content a gallon of ethanol minus fossil energy used to produce a gallon of ethanol

17

Energy Balance Results of Ethanol Depend Heavily on System Boundary Choices

Operation-Related Activities:Fertilizer, Farming,

Corn Transportation, EthanolProduction, Ethanol Transportation,

Energy Use for Producing Process Fuels

Farming Equipment Materials

and Manufacture

Ethanol Plant Materials

and ConstructionFood Intake by Farmers

Solar Energy Embedded

in Biomass

18

The Debate on Energy Balance Itself May Have Little Practical MeaningThough self evaluation of a fuel’s energy balance is easy to understand, to do so for a fuel in isolation could be arbitraryAll Btus are not created equal. The energy sector has been converting low-value Btus into high-value Btus, with energy lossesSociety has not made energy choice decisions on the basis of energy balance values of individual energy productsIssues of concern, such as petroleum consumption and GHG emissions, should be analyzed directly for fuel alternativesA complete, robust way of evaluating a fuel’s effects is to compare the fuel (e.g., ethanol) with those to be displaced (e.g., gasoline)

19

Most Studies on GHG Emissions Show GHG Emission Reduction by Corn EtOH as Compared to Gasoline

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EPA (1990

): E100

EPA (1990

): E85

Ho (199

0): E10

0

Marland

(199

1): E10

0

Delucch

i (199

1): E10

0

Ahmed

(1994

): E100

Delucch

i (199

6): E95

Wang (1

996):

E100

Wang (1

996):

E85

Wang (1

997):

E85

Agri. C

an. (1

999):

E85

Delucch

i (200

1): E90

Wang (2

003):

E85

Deluchi (2

003):

E90

Wang (2

005):

E100

Kim&Dale

(2005):

E100

NR Can

ada (2

005):

E100

GHG

Cha

nges

20

Of the 11.8 Billion Bushels of Corn Produced in U.S. in 2004, About 12% Was Used for Ethanol Production

The U.S. produced 3.41 billion gallons of fuel ethanol in 2004, equivalent to 2.28 billion gallons of gasoline

In 2003, the U.S. consumed 134 billion gallons of gasoline and 39 billion gallons of on-road diesel fuels

Source: ERS/USDA, 2004, Feed Outlook (in RFA, 2005); EIA

Feed/Residual: 56.4%

Export: 18.5%

Ethanol: 11.7%

High Fructose Corn Syrup: 5.2%

Starch: 2.7%

Sweeteners: 2.2%

Cereal/Other: 1.8%

Beverage/Industrial Alcohol: 1.3%

Seed: 0.2%

U.S. Corn Usage by Segment 2004

21

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

products industry

wastes

Forest growth

Fuel treatm

ents (forestla

nds)

Logging and other residues

Urban wood residues

Fuelwood

Fore

st

A Recent Study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory Concludes 1.3 Billion Tons of Biomass Available in U.S. Per Year

0

100

200

300

400

Perennial crops

Corn stover

Grains to biofuels

Whea t stra

w

Soybeans

Othe r crop re

s idues

Othe r residues

Manures

CRP biomass

Sma ll gra in re

sidues

Mil.

dry

tons

per

yea

r

Total: 998 mil. Dry tonsTotal: 368 mil. Dry tons

22

The Energy Bill Encourages Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

Creates a credit-trading program where 1 gallon of cellulosic ethanol is equal to 2.5 gallons of renewable fuelCreates a program for production of 250 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol in 2013 Creates a Loan Guarantee Program of $250 million per facilityCreates a $650 million Grant Program for cellulosic ethanolCreates an Advanced Biofuels Technologies Program of $550 million

Information is courtesy of the Renewable Fuels Association

23

ConclusionsEnergy balance value for a given energy product alone is not meaningful in evaluating its benefit

Any type of fuel ethanol helps substantially reduce fossil energy and petroleum use, relative to petroleum gasoline

Corn-based fuel ethanol achieves moderate reductions in GHG emissions

Cellulosic ethanol can achieve much greater energy and GHG benefits