update on population statistics research projects jonny tinsley, population statistics research unit...
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Update on Population Statistics Research Projects
Jonny Tinsley, Population Statistics Research Unit
Aims
• Update on research projects to improve population statistics
• Work collaboratively to ensure the research results and timeliness of method changes meet user needs
• Discussion of UK Statistics Authority assessment of migration statistics
Components of change
For LAD EverytownPopulation 100,000
Births 1,290
Deaths -870
Movers from elsewhere in UK 4,950
Movers to elsewhere in UK -4,950
Moves from overseas 830
Moves to overseas -550
Net +700
Review of internal migration method
Basic method
PR t1 PR t2
LA 1
LA 2
Basic method 2
LA 1
LA 2
LA 3
40
60
HA 1
HA 2
120
48
72
Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500
Males (2011 census based MYE) Females (2011 census based MYE)
Rolled Forward MYE
Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500
Males (2011 census based MYE) Females (2011 census based MYE)
Rolled Forward MYE
Inaccuracies in Internal Migration EstimatesPR PR
LA 1
LA 2
Census
Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500
Males (2011 census based MYE) Females (2011 census based MYE)
Rolled Forward MYE
Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
Males (2011 census based MYE) Females (2011 census based MYE)
Rolled Forward MYE
Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Male Net Migration Female Net migration
Problems inflating all moves within a HA
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
5000-
4
5-9
yrs
10-
14
yrs
15-
19
yrs
20-
24
yrs
25-
29
yrs
30-
34
yrs
35-
39
yrs
40-
44
yrs
45-
49
yrs
50-
54
yrs
55-
59
yrs
60-
64
yrs
65-
69
yrs
70-
74
yrs
75-
79
yrs
80-
84
yrs
85-
89
yrs
90
+
North Essex Net (un) North Essex Net (con)
Tendring Net (Un) Tendring Net (Con)
Interventions research
• How do we best adjust for ‘classic’ lagged moves on the patient register ?: data linkage or by modelling
• How do we protect against lagged moves across the Census date?: linking Census with patient register
• How to we best account for the missed moves?: improve NHSCR use or switch to Personal Demographic Service data
Review of long-term international emigration method
Definition
• ONS use the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant:
- a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence
IPS estimates of long-term emigration at regional level (2011)
IPS estimates of long-term emigration at regional level (2011)
IPS estimate of
LA emigration
(3 year average)
Stepwise model
Stepwise model
Covariate 1Covariate 1
Covariate 2Covariate 2
Covariate iCovariate i
Covariate 3Covariate 3
Emigration model specification
Constrain to regional totalModel age/sex
Final model used to
estimate LA totals
Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level
Number of hostels (+)
Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+)
Number of people of African country of birth (+)
Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-)
Number of people of North American country of birth (+)
Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+)
LA emigration estimates
Annual Population Survey
2011 Census
Migrant Worker Scan
Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level
Number of hostels (+)
Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+)
Number of people of African country of birth (+)
Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-)
Number of people of North American country of birth (+)
Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+)
LA emigration estimates
Annual Population Survey
2011 Census
Migrant Worker Scan
Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level
Number of hostels (+)
Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+)
Number of people of African country of birth (+)
Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-)
Number of people of North American country of birth (+)
Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+)
LA emigration estimates
Annual Population Survey
2011 Census
Migrant Worker Scan
Interventions research
• Reviewing the covariates – what is associated with emigration? but also giving weight to what is intuitive, and is likely to be sensitive to change (non-Census variables)
• Can admin sources available to ONS be used to distribute the regional IPS total more directly?
• If not, ensure the best data is used in the model to reassure there is no systematic bias in net flows
UK Statistics Authority assessment of Migration Statistics
5 recommendations including
‘Set out a consistent approach to announcing changes to methods well in advance of the changed statistics and notify users’
‘Investigate the feasibility of reducing the time-lag between the reference period and publication of IM and publish the findings’
Revisions and user engagement
‘Set out a consistent approach to announcing changes to methods well in advance of the changed statistics and notify users’
• Update revisions policy• Publish minutes from decision making bodies• Engage through a variety of channels, including online
Revisions implementation plan
2011 MYEs 2012 MYEs 2013 MYEs 2014 MYEs 2015 MYEs
E
E E E R
E E E
E = existing methods, R = revised methods
R R R R R
June2014
June2015
June2016
When
UK Statistics Authority assessment of Migration Statistics
‘Investigate the feasibility of reducing the time-lag between the reference period and publication of IM and publish the findings’
Quality assurance tools
Population Quality Unit
Quality information tools planned
• Planned for release with mid-2013 Mid-year estimates
• Comparator tool• Similar to 2011 Census tool – admin data and some
demographic analysis (for example, fertility rates, sex ratios)
• Component effect visualisation tool• Experimental• Focussed on last decade initially
Help needed
• A group of people prepared to test and comment on tools as they are designed – work likely to be end of April/early May.
Contact [email protected] or fill in section on evaluation form.
For information
• Research paper on updated work on plausibility ranges1 in the light of the 2011 Census to be published in Spring
1Original work here http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/imps/latest-news/using-administrative-data-to-set-plausibility-ranges/index.html
• Further work on statistical confidence intervals for mid-year estimates2 being carried out
2Original work here http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/imps/latest-news/uncertainty-in-la-mypes/index.html