update on international storm surge activities at rsmc miami...specialized storm surge training o...
TRANSCRIPT
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Update on International Storm Surge Activities at RSMC Miami
Brian Zachry and Jamie Rhome
WMO RA-IV RSMC/CIFDP-C System Developer
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WMO CIFDP-C
o Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) initiated by Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)
o At the 5th meeting of the CIFDP Program Steering Group (May 2014, Geneva), the previous Sub-Project for Dominican Republic (CIFDP-DR) was re-scoped for a Caribbean/regional approach and denoted CIFDP-C
o CIFDP-C will be initially demonstrated and tested for the Dominican Republic and Haiti
o Develop SLOSH products for planning, preparedness, and forecasting
o RSMC Miami will provide the leading technical contribution, in collaboration with the PSG and other partners
o Fully funded by USAID (1.2 Million U.S. Dollars)
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WMO CIFDP-C Participants
RSMC MiamiJamie Rhome CIFDP-C System Developer
Brian Zachry CIFDP-C Project ManagerEthan Gibney CIFDP-C Grid Builder
NWS Environmental Modeling CenterAndre Van der Westhuysen and Dongming Yang
CIFDP-C Modelers
Florida International UniversityKeqi Zhang CIFDP-C DEM and Grid Builder
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o Almost 50% the deaths are due to storm surge
o Over 80% of deaths are due to water
o Wind causes less than 10% of deaths
2,544 Fatalities From 1963–2012
Why the Need for a Demonstration Project
Edward N. Rappaport, 2014: Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: New Data and Interpretation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 341–346.
Storm Surge
49%
Rain
27%
Surf
6%
Wind
8%
Tornado
3%
Other
1%Offshore
6%
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CIFDP-C Demonstration Project Plan
Project Scoping and Preparation:
Definitive National Agreement (DNA), training, and initial data inventory
Project Planning and Design:
Stakeholder workshop, establish National Coordination Team (NCT), regional buy-in, initial project design/setup (Mexico demo)
System Development:
Digital elevation model (DEM), SLOSH/wave grid creation and quality control, and model development
Develop Training modules
System Validation:
MOMs/MEOW creation, QA/QC, and model validation
Deploy online training modules
Phase 0 2013-2014
Phase 1 2015
Phase 2 2016
Phase 3 2017
Phase 4 2018
System Integration and Training:
System implementation, project evaluation, specialized training workshop
Project evaluation and recommended application to region (RA-IV)
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Specialized Storm Surge Training
o First-ever international storm surge modeling workshop held at NHC/FIU in January 2015, funded by the WMO
o Students consisted of various Nations from the WMO RA-IV region plus participants from the Philippines (PAGASA) and JMA
o Specialized training focused on setting up, running, and analyzing SLOSH model results and required data sets necessary for properly setting up and validating a storm surge modeling system
o NHC gathered feedback from workshop participants to lay foundation for CIFDP-C system design and implementation in member Nations
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CIFDP-C Project Kickoff and NCT Meeting in Dominican Republic
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Hispaniola Demonstration Project Phases
Project Scoping and Preparation:
Definitive National Agreement (DNA), training, and initial data inventory
Project Planning and Design:
Stakeholder workshop, establish National Coordination Team (NCT), regional buy-in, initial project design/setup (Mexico demo)
System Development:
Digital elevation model (DEM), SLOSH/wave grid creation and quality control, and model development
Develop Training modules
System Validation:
MOMs/MEOW creation, QA/QC, and model validation
Deploy online training modules
Phase 0 2013-2014
Phase 1 2015
Phase 2 2016
Phase 3 2017
Phase 4 2018
System Integration and Training:
System implementation, project evaluation, specialized training workshop
Project evaluation and recommended application to region (RA-IV)
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MEXICO DEMONSTRATION PROJECT
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Mexico Storm Surge Demonstration Project
o Collaboration between RSMC-Miami, Florida International University, and the Coastal Processes and Engineering Laboratory of the Sisal Academic Unit of the Engineering Institute of the UNAM
o Explore the feasibility of using SLOSH within WMO RA-IV:o Initial scoping project in the Yucatan
Peninsula due to data availability
o Establish a technical foundation for the CIFDP-C
o Establish a framework for sharing storm surge modeling expertise and data between RSMC Miami and RA-IV member nations
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SLOSH Basin for Yucatan Peninsula
Hyperbolic Grid:
529 x 1620
(856,980 cells)
Developed by:
Wilmer Rey
Sánchez (MEX)
LIDAR
data
o First ever SLOSH basin for the Yucatan Peninsula
o Working to understand IT requirements and datanecessary to develop SLOSH within Mexico
o LIDAR data supplemented with ETOPO1 (1.8 km) global relief model for topography and bathymetry data
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Mexico Storm Surge Demonstration ProjectCategory 3 MOM (Mean Tide)
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CIFDP-C DATA COLLECTION AND DATA ASSESSMENT
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FIU Surveyed Areas in Dominican Republic
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Boxplots for Grid Elevations and Survey Elevations for all Sites
Grey area represents the 25th to 50th percentiles; yellow 50th to 75th
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TanDEM-X
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TanDEM-X Data Availability
o Availability as of March 2016
o Estimated cost: ~100K U.S. dollars for study area
o Working with NWS International Affairs and FIU to establish an agreement regarding data sharing and savings for CIFDP-C
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Raw TanDEM-X: Santo Domingo Airport
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Topography Data Comparison: Miami, FL
Downtown Miami, FL
ASTER SRTM
LIDAR TanDEM-X
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LIDAR TanDEM-X
Filtering Methods to create DTM
Topography Data Comparison: Miami, FL
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TanDEM-X Data for Hispaniola
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DTM Creation: Torbeck, Haiti
Raw Data ATIN Filter Method
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DTM Comparison: Torbeck, Haiti
Profile Location
DTM Comparison: ASTER, SRTM, TanDEM-X
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o NOAA single and multi-beam sounding surveys
o NOAA Tsunami programo CIFDP-C NCT data
collectiono IOC bathymetry
o Already incorporated into model grids
Bathymetric Data
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NOAA Global Shoreline Global 30m Land Cover from China
Supplemental Information
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CIFDP-C SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
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CIFDP-C System Development
o Implement a coupled storm surge and wave modeling system o SLOSH hydrodynamic modelo Wave model recommended by IOOS modeling
testbed
o Develop products for planning, preparedness, and forecastingo SLOSH MOMs and MEOWso Same display system as employed by RSMC-Miami
(SLOSH Display Program)
o Provide specialized training programs on how to use the storm surge products for planning and preparedness
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Leveraging U.S. Modeling Testbedfor Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
o Evaluate wave/surge operational modeling/forecasting in steep-sloped regions such as the Caribbean
o Features regional-scale and nearshore-scale field cases using SWAN wave model
o Broad participation from academic and operational communities with a wide range of surge and wave models
o Conclude with recommendations for operational environment and facilitate the transition to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center
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2nd Generation Wave Model for SLOSH
o Initial model development and evaluation of a 2nd generation wave model to couple with SLOSH
o Selected the Great Lakes Wave Model and began adding wave physics parameterizations
o Model uses simplified physics, but is cheaper computationally than SWAN or WW3
o More suitable to couple with SLOSH than SWAN
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𝜕𝐸𝑊𝜕𝑡
+𝜕𝐶𝑔 ∙ 𝐸𝑊
𝜕𝑥= 𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑 + 𝑆𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑠
𝜕𝐸𝑠𝜕𝑡
+𝜕𝐶𝑔 ∙ 𝐸𝑠
𝜕𝑥= 𝑆𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑠
o Wind seas (Ew): grows when angle between wave direction and wind direction is < 90o, and wind velocity is larger than phase velocity
o Swell transition: associated wind sea wave energy now propagates without further generation and is treated as swell energy (𝐸𝑠)
o Swell frequency: equals corresponding wind sea frequency at the point when the wave growth ends
o Total variance: adding 𝐸𝑤 and 𝐸𝑠 for each wave direction and integrating through all directions
Wind Sea:
Swell:
Ew
Es
Wave Model Discretization
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70
0
U10
(m/s)
o Hypothetical Category 5 Hurricane
o Storm center crosses Puerto Rico from the South to the North
o Maximum wind speed around 65 m/s
Parametric Wave Model Test Case
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12m
0
t = 55 hr t = 60 hr t = 65 hr t = 70 hr
SWAN Model, Runtime=12hr
Parametric Wave Model, runtime=70 min
Wave Height Comparison
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10 N/m2
0
t = 55 hr t = 60 hr t = 65 hr t = 70 hr
SWAN Model, Runtime=12hr
Parametric Wave Model, runtime=70 min
Wave Radiation Stress Comparison
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Rincon (NW) San Juan (NE)
Emajagua (SE)
Wave Height Comparison
1 2
3
1 2
3
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Parametric Wave Model
SLOSH
Initialize
Time
Time
WL
RS RS
WL
o SLOSH is driver, with parametric wave model as a subroutine
o Compiled into single, efficient executable
o To be used for computation of MEOW surge/inundation envelopes
Coupling time step
Wave Model Coupling to SLOSH
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SLOSH Grid Development
o Tested different SLOSH basin configurations for optimal grid resolutions in main areas of interest
o Developed an initial SLOSH basin for testing and evaluation of run times and stability analysis
o Evaluated current data requirements, data availability, and data gaps
Hyperbolic Basin1,653,750 cells
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SLOSH Model Results
SLOSH Category 5 Hurricane Moving NW at 20 mph
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River Coupling Methodology: Ozama River
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Accurate and Timely QPE for CIFDP-C?
• Many countries in Latin America, including DR, lack timely and accurate Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE)
• While QPE products are available from GOES satellites, accuracy typically suffers in tropical environments and areas of complex terrain. • Dissemination is a challenge
• GOES-R will provide improved QPE• Baseline rainfall rate product from ABI IR
brightness temperatures will be calibrated in real time against microwave-derived rain rates to enhance accuracy.
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TRAINING MODULES AND OUTREACH MATERIAL
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Dissemination and Data Availability
• NHC will host the CIFDP-C MOMs on an online web portal for high-resolution inundation mapping
• Provide GIS data
• Map services
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SLOSH Display Program
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DemoDemo
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Translation of Outreach Material
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Translation of Existing COMET Modules to Spanish and French
Storm Surge Forecasting
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Uncertainty
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Jamie Rhome, Team Lead
Dr. Brian Zachry
Tarah Sharon
William Booth
Ethan Gibney
Cody Fritz
Laura Paulik
Taylor Trogdon
(305) 229-4448
hurricanes.gov/surge
@NHC_Surge
NHC’s Storm Surge Unit