universität bern, 19th september 2018 industrial and ...€¦ · universität bern, 19th september...

Arturo BaroncelliPast President IFREngelberger Prize

Universität Bern, 19th September 2018

INDUSTRIAL AND SERVICE ROBOTICS:STATE OF THE ART AND FUTURE TRENDS

1

International Federation of RoboticsRepresenting the global robotics industry

• Robotics turnover 2017: about $50billion

• More than 50 members:• National robot associations• R&D institutes• Robot suppliers• Integrators

• Sponsor of the annualInternational Symposiumon Robotics (ISR)

• Co-sponsor of the IERAAward

• Primary resource forworld-wide data on useof robotics – IFRStatistical Department

Source data August 2018 2

Structure of Presentation

• Industrial Robots

• Service Robots

3

Preview on WorldRobotics 2018

• Industrial Robots 2017• Global installations• Regions• Main Markets• Main Customers• Challenges of the Robotics Industry

Some figures of the presentation were taken fromprevious edition of World Robotics

4

The Birth of Real Industrial Robotics

• First robot installed

• 1961 in GM plant, Trenton NJ

• Handled various hot pieces of diecast metaland stacked them

• Weight 2 tons

• Hydraulically driven

• Controlled by a program on magnetic drums

• Developed by George Devol and JoeEngelberger, 2 pioneers of Robotics

5

ISO definition 8373 of a robot:• An automatically controlled, reprogrammable, multipurpose manipulator programmable in three or more axes,

which may be either fixed in place or mobile for use in industrial automation applications.

• Reprogrammable: whose programmed motions or auxiliary functions may be changed without physical alterations;

• Multipurpose: capable of being adapted to a different application with physical alterations;

• Physical alterations: alteration of the mechanical structure or control system except for changes of programmingcassettes, ROMs, etc. o Axis: direction used to specify the robot motion in a linear or rotary mode

Technical definition of industrial Robot

6

2017: record growth of industrial robots

111 114 113

60

121

166 159178

221254

294

381

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

'000

of u

nits

Estimated worldwide annual shipments ofindustrial robots

Source: IFR Statistical Department

+30%

Source data August 20187

Arturo Baroncelli

N.1 1961

2020: 3 million industrial robots in operation

1.035 1.021 1.059 1.153 1.235 1.3321.472

1.6321.828

2.0552.323

2.644

3.053

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*

'000

of u

nits

Estimated worldwide operational stock ofindustrial robots 2015-2016 and forecast for 2017*-2020*

Source:IFR World Robotics 2017

+12%+12%

+14% on averageper year

*forecast

N.1 1961

8

2017: electronics, automotive and metalindustry are main drivers

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20

15

7

20

29

65

98

25

19

8

20

29

91

103

41

23

10

21

45

121

126

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Unspecified

Others

Food and beverages

Plastic and chemical products

Metal

Electrical/electronics

Automotive

'000 of units

Estimated annual supply of industrial robots at year-endby industries worldwide 2015-2017

2017 2016 2015


+21%

+33%

+55%

+9%

+19%


2017: considerable increase in all regions

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5

38

50

161

6

41

56

191

7

46

66

262

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

all others

America

Europe

Asia/Australia

'000 of units

Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robotsat year-end by regions 2015 - 2017

2017 2016 2015 Source: IFR Statistical Department

+37%

+18%

+12%

+11%


Top 5 countries represent 73% of total sales in 2017

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20

28

38

35

69

20

31

41

39

87

22

33

40

46

138

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Germany

United States

Rep. of Korea

Japan

China

'000 of units

Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robotsat year-end main markets 2015 – 2017*

2017 2016 2015 Source: IFR Statistical Department

+58%

-4%

+6%

+8%

+18%

*preliminary results of 2017


China: Main driver of growth in 2017

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7 8 6 1523 23

37

5769

87

138

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

'000

of u

nits

Annual shipments of industrial robotsin China 2007 - 2017


+27%

+58%


Vietnam now 7th largest destination

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3

5

7

1

7

4

6

6

2

8

5

6

8

8

11

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

FRANCE

MEXICO

ITALY

VIETNAM

TAIWAN

'000 units

Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robotsat year-end main markets 2015 - 2017

2017 2016 2015


+44%

+410%

+19%

+7%

+16%


Considerable increase in Switzerland

Arturo Baroncelli

532 488

347447

673584 593

650734

805

1.118

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

units

Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin Switzerland


Rep. of Korea: considerable increase since 2010

128

24 26

19 2125

3841 44 42 44

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*

'000

of u

nits

Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin the Rep. of Korea 2008-2016 and 2017*-2020*

Source: IFR World Robotics 2017

+8%

+5% to +10% onaverage per year

+5%

15

Japan: significant recovery and continued growth

33

13

22

28 2925

29

3539

42 44 4548

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*

'000

of u

nits

Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin Japan 2008-2016 and 2017*-2020*


+10%

+5% onaverage per year

9%

16

USA: considerable increase since 2010

13

7

14

21 22 2426 28

3136 38

45

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*

'000

of u

nits

Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin the USA 2008-2016 and 2017*-2020*


+14%


15%

17

Germany: moderate increase at record levels

15

9

14

2018 18

20 20 20 21 2224

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*

'000

of u

nits

Estimated annual supply of industrial robotsin Germany 2008-2016 and 2017*-2020*


0%


+5%

18

2020: 1.9 million operating in Asian factories

8871.025

1.1861.380

1.618

1.912

433 460 493 527 563 612

274 300 326 359 397 453

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*

'000

of u

nits

Estimated worldwide operational stock ofindustrial robots 2015-2016 and forecast for 2017*- 2020*

Asia/Australia Europe America Source: IFR World Robotics 2017*forecast

19

2020: 950,000 robots operating in China

256340

451

585

748

950

287 287 285 292 301 316

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*

'000

of u

nits

Estimated operational stock of industrial robotsin China and in Japan 2015-2016 and forecast for 2017*-2020*

China Japan Source: IFR World Robotics 2017*forecast

20

Density of Robots = Robots / 10.000 Manufacturing EmployeesWorld average = 74Republic of Korea at the top = 631China = 49 . Enormous potential to further growth.

Density of Robots

21

Density of Robots = Robots / 10.000 Manufacturing EmployeesWorld average = 74Republic of Korea at the top = 631China = 49 . Enormous potential to further growth.

22

Density of Robots

Today’s trends, tomorrow’s robots!

23

• Shift from high volume/low mix to low volume/high mix ishaving a profound impact on manufacturing.

• Many industries facing acute shortages of skilled labor.

• Quicker automation ROIs and rising wages bringing an end tolabour arbitrage.

• Increasing focus on workplace safety.

The Changing Nature of Manufacturing & Work

Today’s Digital Generation doesn’t do “4D” Jobs!

24

Addressing these Realities : a Huge Opportunity

Low volume high mix

Shorter cycles, faster launches

Increased need for automation andscalability in SMEs

Rising cost of downtime

Automation complexity andunpredictability

Shop floor disruptions andhigh engineering costs

Lack of robot integrationand programming expertise

Higher lifetime TCO due toincrease in planned downtime

The Trends The Challenges

Increased and sporadichuman intervention

Lost productivity tomaintain safety

Collaborative automation forgreater flexibility

Better software forengineering efficiency

Easier to use robots with moreintuitive programming

Advanced analytics and servicesfor greater reliability

The Enablers

Collaborative automation tomaintain safety and productivity

The Answers to these challenges lie inSimplification, Digitalisation and Collaboration

25

• Robots which are easier to install, program and operate willunlock entry barriers to the large, untapped market of smalland medium enterprises (SMEs).

• Trend towards having production closer to the end consumerdriving the importance of standardisation & consistency acrossglobal brands.

Simplification

Simplification critical to SMEs, but alsoimportant for large Global Manufacturers

26

• Industry 4.0, linking the real-life factory with a virtual one, willplay an increasingly important role in global manufacturing.

• Vision and sensing devices, coupled with analytics platforms,will pave the way for new industry business models.

• Machine Learning will drive many robotics developments overthe coming years.

Digitalisation

Big Data allowing People to make betterDecisions about Factory Operations

27

• Collaborative robots are shifting the traditional limits of “whatcan be automated?”

• Collaborative robots increase manufacturing flexibility as ‘lowvolume high mix’ becomes the new normal

• Collaboration is also about productivity with increasedhuman/robot interaction

Collaboration

Collaboration means different Things to DifferentPeople, but is changing the Face of Manufacturing

28

Self-programming Robots

Robotics : the Connected Future

Self-optimising Production

Robots doing the same task connect acrossall global locations so performance can becompared and improved at the click of a button.

Robots automatically download what theyneed to get started from a cloud library andthen start to optimise through “self-learning”.

Connected & Collaborative Robots enable SMARTManufacturing for both SMEs & Global Enterprises

29

Structure Of Presentation

• Industrial Robots

• Service Robots

30

Definitions of Service Robots

31

A service robot is a robot that performs useful tasks for humans or equipmentexcluding industrial automation application.Note: The classification of a robot into industrial robot or service robot is doneaccording to its intended application.

• A personal service robot or a service robot for personal use is a service robotused for a non-commercial task, usually by lay persons.Examples are domestic servant robot, automated wheelchair, personal mobilityassist robot, and pet exercising robot.

• A professional service robot or a service robot for professional use is a servicerobot used for a commercial task, usually operated by a properly trained operator.Examples are cleaning robot for public places, delivery robot in offices or hospitals,fire-fighting robot, rehabilitation robot and surgery robot in hospitals. In this contextan operator is a person designated to start, monitor and stop the intendedoperation of a robot or a robot system.

What is a service robot?

Industrial Robots Service Robots

Professional Use Personal/domestic

Industrial environments Non-industrial environments

Picture source: Goldbeck, ;KUKA AG, Bosch Bonirob, Hetwin, SMP Robotics, Omron,International Submarine Engineering , Robert Bosch Hausgeräte , Wonder Workshop

32

Professional Service Robots

Image creditLely

Image creditCobham

Image creditSchilling Robotics

Image creditAeroVironment

Source: IFR World RoboticsSource: BA Systemes

Source: Rewalk

Source: Intuitive Surgical

33

Professional service robots: significant growth

2016: almost 60,000 units, +24%

Forecast 2017: +17% -almost 79,000 units

Forecast 2018 -2020: about 400,000 units20% to 25% on average per year

34

Professional service robots: increasing turnover

2016: 4.7 US$bn, +2%

Forecast 2017: +12% - 5.2 US$bn

Forecast 2018 -2020: 26.8 US$bn20% to 25% on average per year

35

Main drivers: logistic systems

189,7

46,7

27,837,0

11,67,125,4

11,16,019,0 11,2

6,60

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Logistic Defence Field

'000

of u

nits

Service robots for professional use. Main applicationsUnits sales 2015 and 2016, forecast 2017*, 2018*-2020*

2018*-2020* 2017* 2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017*forecast

36

Public relation robots andexoskeletons on the rise

66,1

41,0

10,7 3,210,3 8,1 2,0 0,87,5 6,0 1,6 0,73,2

5,0 1,3 0,60

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Public relation Exoskeletons Medical Construction

'000

of u

nits

Service robots for professional use. All other applications - 1 -Units sales 2015 and 2016, forecast 2017* and 2018*-2020*


37

Good prospects for cleaning robots

6,1

1,2

2,3

0,5 0,1

1,5

0,7 0,4 0,5 0,1 0,0 0,20,50,3 0,3 0,1 0,0 0,10,5 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

Cleaning Inspection Mobile platforms Underwater Rescue /security All others

'000

of u

nits

Service robots for professional use. All other applications - 2 -Units sales 2015 and 2016, forecast 2017* and 2018*-2020*


38

Medical robots: most valuable

7.749

5.845

4.2313.566

1.8331.133 1.104 758

1.612992 985 775

1.463780 1.108 1.038

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

Medical Logistic Field Defence

US$

mill

ion

Service robots for professional use in main applications. Estimated values 2015and 2016, forecast 2017*, 2018*-2020*


39

Public relation robots:significant increase of turnover

4.492

283506147 59 135119 41 11253 23 131

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

Public relation Exoskeletons All others

US$

mill

ion

Service robots for professional use. All othersEstimated value 2015 and 2016, forecast 2017*, 2018*-2020*


40

Professional service robots:more than 50% from the Americas

32,5

15,9

11,3

25,9

15,6

6,6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Americas Europe Asia/Australia

'000

of u

nits

Service robots for professional useUnit sales 2015 and 2016 by region of origin

2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017

41

Main categories:Vacuum and floor cleaningLawn-mowing robotsEntertainment and leisure robotsRobots for elderly and handicapassistance

Source: Kärcher (Vacuum cleaning)

Source: EzrobotSource: Aisoy Robotics S.L

Personal Service Robots

Image creditBlueBotics

Image credit Kawada

Image credit MetraLabs

Copyrights GEStream©Technology Inc.

Image credit VgoCommunications Source: Vorwerk (Vacuum cleaning)

42

Personal/domestic robots on the rise

2.9792.766

991

2.4022.213

816

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

Americas Asia/Australia Europe

'000

uni

ts

Service robots for personal/domestic use. Unit sales 2015 and 2016 by region oforigin.

2016 2015 Source: World Robotics 2017

43

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

Household robots Entertainment and leisure robots

'000

of u

nits

Figure 2.4 Service robots for personal/domestic use.Units sales 2014 and 2015, and forecast 2016-2019

2016-2019 2015 2014 Source: IFR World Robotics 2016

Total value of forecast :Household robots: about US$ 13 billionEntertainment robots: about US$ 9 billion

2016 - 2019: 42 million new service robots for personal and domestic use

44

• Dynamics of the service robotics industry• Technological enablers

45

Number of service robot manufacturers of alltypes by region of origin (N=699)

EU; 243

CH, IL, NO; 50North America; 242

Asia; 134

Others; 30

Number of service robot manufacturers of all types(professional and personal/domestic use) by region of origin

Source: World Robotics 201746

Europe fares well in service robotstart-up creation

80

72

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

num

ber

of c

ompa

nies

Number of service robot manufacturers(professional and personal/domestic use) by country of origin

Established

Start Ups

Criteria for Start-Up:• Product/prototype on the market• Business max 5 years of age29% share of start-ups

80

72

Source: World Robotics 2017 47

75% of European service robotsuppliers are SMEs

020406080

100120140160180200

num

ber

of c

ompa

nies

number of employees

Business sizes of service robots of all types in numbers of employees(by region of origin)

EuropeNorth AmericaAsia

small and mediumsized businesses

Source: World Robotics 2017

48

Start-up examples (I):Service robotics in agriculture

Fresh fruit picking robot

Naïo Technologies (France)

Robotic weeder for vegetable farms

WALL-YE (France)

Platform for vineyard maintenance

FF Robotics (Israel)Source: FF Robotics, WALL-YE, Naio Technologies

49

Start-up examples (II):Service robots in public-relations

Bots and us (UK)Unity Robotics (D) Promobot (RU)

Source: Unity Robotics, Bots and us, Promobot

50

Start-up examples (III):Service robots in logistics

Fetch Robotics (USA)Mobile Industrial Robots MiR (DK) Robotnik (ES)

Source: MiR, Fetch Robotics, Robotnik

51

Creating a EuropeanEco-System in robotics

• Robotic key-technologies: perception, human-machine-interaction, mechatronics, safety, …

• Software: Major cost-/performance factor in service robotics,30+% cost share

• Supply industry for robotics key-components, software (computervision, motion control, mobile navigation etc.) emerges

• Open Source Software systems hugely popular; e.g. >2/3 of allservice robot suppliers use Robot Operating System ROS (andother OSS)

• With €700M in funding from EU 2014 – 2020, SPARC is thelargest civilian-funded robotics innovation initiative in the world.

52

Conclusions

53

N.1 1961

• Both Industrial and Service Robotics are expected to grow in the forthcoming years at double digit rate.

• Industrial Robots shows an impressive growth in particular in Asian markets. Simplification, digitalizationand collaboration are the key developments.

• Service robots are expected to grow in all segments both professional and personal. Most robotproducers represented by SME and start ups.

Thanks!

Arturo Baroncelli

54

universität bern, 19th september 2018 industrial and ...€¦ · universität bern, 19th september...

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