universiti putra malaysia an evaluation of the bella di jalan raya...
TRANSCRIPT
-
UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA
AN EVALUATION OF THE BELlA DI JALAN RAYA ROAD SAFETY PROGRAMME
LAW TEIK HUA
FK 1998 2
-
AN EVALUATION OF THE BELlA DI JALAN RA YA ROAD SAFETY PROGRAMME
By
LAW TI:IK HUA
Thesis Submitted in Fulfilment of the Requirement for the Degree of Master of Science in the Faculty of Engineering
Universiti Putra Malaysia
August 1998
-
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This thesis is based on a study on the Selia Di Jalan Raya road
safety programme, funded by Belia 4B, Hulu Langat, Young Malaysian
Movement and PUSPAKOM.
The author wishes to thank Associate Prof. Ir. Dr. Radin Umar,
Dr. Mohd Razali and Dr. Habsah Midi for their concern and
encouragement toward the completion of this project paper. Thanks are
also due to Dr Ali Hassan for his generous assistance.
The author further wishes to express his appreciation to Y. B
Datuk Wira Haji Mohd Ali Rustam and Mr. Surat Singh of Majlis
Keselamatan Jalan Raya for their cooperation in this safety programme.
The author would also l ike to extend his sincere appreciation to ASP Nik
Lokman, ASP Ruslan and the entire Traffic Division of Kajang Police
Department for their assistance in collecting accident data in Hulu
Langat.
Last but not least, my sincere thanks from the bottom of my heart
to my beloved Mom and Dad for their love, support and encouragement.
ii
-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i i
LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi
LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . vii i
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x
ABSTRACT
ABSTRAK
CHAPTER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv
I INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Objectives of Selia di Ja/an Raya Safety Programme. . . . . . . . 5 Objectives of the Study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Structure of the Thesis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
II ROAD SAFETY EDUCATION AND EVALUATION. . . . . . . . . . . 8
Formal Education and Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Other Education and Awareness Approaches . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . '" 1 5
Specific Educational Efforts Targeted at the Novice Rider. . 1 5
General Education and Awareness Approaches. . . . . . . . . . ........ 1 6
Police Enforcement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 7
Statistical Interference on Traffic Safety Intervention . . . . . . . . . .. 21
Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Analysis of the Odds Ratio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Box-Jenkins Time Series I ntervention Analysis. . . . . . . . 33
iii
-
III RESEARCH METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 45
I ntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
The Safety Project. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Safety Talks and Education to Targeted Riders . . . . . . . . 46
The Programme of Integrated Enforcement. . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Public Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . ... . . . . . . . 48
Traffic Accident Database System . . . . , . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Data Collection and Processing . . . . . . . , . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... . . . . . . . . 50
Design of the Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Control District . . . . . . ... ... . . . ... . .... . ... ... . . . . , ........ , .... . . . . . . . . . . . . '" . . . . . . 53
Statistical Evaluation Techniques . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Research Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Significance Testing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 59
Iv RESUL '·S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Analysis on Overall Accidents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Before and After Chi-square Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Survival Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Time Series Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 62
Analysis on Motorcycle-related Accidents . . . . . . . . . ...... . . . . . . ...... 66
Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .... 66
Survival Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Time Series Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68
Analysis on Accident Casualties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Survival Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . .. 72
iv
-
Time Series Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 74
Analysis on Motorcyclist Casualties .. . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , ...... ... .... 81
Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... . . . . . . . 81
Survival Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Time Series Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... ... . . . 84
Analysis on Young Casualties . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Before and After Chi-square Test. . . .. . . . . .. . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Survival Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
Time Series Analysis . . . ... . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . ... . . . . .. 93
Analysis on Young Motorcyclist Casualties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
Before and After Chi-square Test. . . . . , . . , . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . .. . . 99
Survival Analysis .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . , . . . . . , . . . '" . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 00
Time Series Analysis . . . . .. . . , .. . . . . . . . . . , . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 02
V FINDINGS AND CONCLUSiONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 0
Introduction . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . , . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 0
Effects of Belia di Jelan Raya Safety Programme . . . . . . ... ... . .. . 1 1 0 Limitations of the Study . . . . . . '" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 5
Future Work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 6
BIBLIOGRAPHy...... ... ... ...... ... ... ...... ... ...... ...... ... ......... ....... 1 1 7
ViTA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 22
v
-
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1 General Road Accident Statistics in Malaysia . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 Motorcycle Accident Statistics in Malaysia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3 Contigency Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
4 The Data of Odds Ratio Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 The Population in Shah Alam and Hulu Langat,
28
1 990 and 1 997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
6 Before and After Chi-square Test for Overall Accidents Data. . . . . . 61
7 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Overall Accidents in Hulu Langat . . . . . . . . . . . . '" . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
8 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcycle-related Accidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
9 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcycle-related Accidents in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
1 0 Before and After Chi-square Test for Number of Hospitalized Casualties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
1 1 Before and After Chi-square Test for Number of Deaths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
1 2 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Hospital ized Casualties in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
1 3 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Deaths in Hulu Lan gat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ' " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oJ . . . . . . . . . 80
1 4 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
1 5 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcyclist Deaths. . . . . . . . . . . . 81
1 6 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcycle Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
vi
-
1 7 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcyclist Deaths in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
1 8 Before and After Chi-square Test for Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
1 9 Before and After Chi-square Test for Deaths Aged Between 1 6 and 30. . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
20 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
21 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Fatal Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . 99
22 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 00
23 Before and After Chi-square Test for Motorcycl ist Deaths Aged Between 1 6 and 30. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 00
24 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . 1 06
25 Estimation, Diagnostic Checking for The Model of Monthly Motorcyclist Fatalities Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 09
26 Result Summary of the Be/ia di Ja/an Raya Safety Programme In Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 5
vii
-
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
1 Malaysia Road Deaths 1 976-1 996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . 2
2 Survival Function of Zero Accident in Particular Months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3 Monthly Overall Accidents in Hulu Langat . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
4 ACF and PACF for the Number of Overal l Accidents in Hulu Langat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
5 Survival Function of Zero Motorcycle-related Accident in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
6 Monthly Motorcycle-related Accidents in Hulu Langat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
7 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motocycle-related Accidents in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
8 Survival Function of Zero Injury in Accident in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
9 Survival Function of Zero Death in Accident in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . '" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '" . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
1 0 Monthly Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
1 1 ACF and PACF for the Number of Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
1 2 Monthly Deaths i n Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. , . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
1 3 ACF and PACF for the Number of Deaths in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
1 4 Survival Function of Zero Motorcycl ist Injury in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
1 5 Survival Function of Zero Motorcycl ist Deaths in Particular Months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
1 6 Monthly Motorcycle Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
viii
-
1 7 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
1 8 Monthly Motorcyclist Deaths in Hulu langat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
1 9 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motocyclist Deaths in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
20 Survival Rate of Zero Hospitalized Casualty Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Particular Months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
21 Survival Rate of Zero Fatal Casualty Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Particular Months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . . 93
22 Monthly Hospital ized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
23 ACF and PACF for the Number of Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 95
24 Monthly Fatal Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
25 ACF and PACF for the Number of Fatal ities Aged between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
26 Survival Rate of Zero Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualty Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . .. . 1 01
27 Survival Rate of Zero Motorcyclist Fatalities Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Particular Months . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 02
28 Monthly Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 04
29 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motorcyclist Hospitalized Casualties Aged between 16 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 05
30 Monthly Motorcyclist Fatalities Aged Between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 1 07
31 ACF and PACF for the Number of Motocyclist Fatalities Aged between 1 6 and 30 in Hulu Langat. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 08
ix
-
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ACF Autocorrelation Function
AR Autoregressive Model
BAC Blood Alcohol Concentration
CARS Computerized Accident Reporting System
HD BFI "Had been Drinking" Fatal and Injury Accident
MRC Motorcycle Safety Foundation's Motorcycle Rider Course
MSTOX Motorcycle Moving Straight or Turning and others Cross
MA Moving Average Model
NIFI Night-time Fatal and Injury Accidents
OR Odds Ratio
PACF Partial Autocorrection Function
SAS Statistical Package for the Statistician
Sdv Standard Deviations
SPSS Statistical Package for Social Scientist
SVNM FI Single Vehicle Night-time Fatal and Injury Accident Involving
Male Drivers
x
-
Abstract of thesis presented to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia in fulfi lment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science.
AN EVALUATION OF THE BELlA DIJALAN RAYA ROAD SAFETY PROGRAMME
By
LAW TEIK HUA
August 1998
Chairman: Associate Professor Radin Umar, Ph.D.
Faculty: Engineering
In November 1 996, a road safety programme known as the Belia di
Ja/an Raya road safety programme was carried out in Hulu Langat. The
main objective of this programme was to reduce traffic accidents and
injuries, especially among the motorcycl ists.
xi
-
This thesis presents the impact of the one year safety programme
in the Hulu Langat district. It provides an integrated approach to address
accident problems by the enhancement of traffic enforcement, education
and public information.
The accident data were collected 23 months before and 12 months
after the programme, in two comparison locations, Hulu Langat and Shah
Alam. Shah Alam was used as a matched-pair control in this analysis.
The Before and After analysis and the Box-Jenkins time series
modeling technique were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the safety
programme. Using the Before and After Chi-square test, it was found that
the proportion of accidents in these two districts are Significantly different.
This impl ies that the safety programme has a Significant effect on the
reduction in the number of accidents, injuries and fatalities in Hulu Langat.
The Box-Jenkins Time Series analysiS indicates an average
reduction of 57 accidents, 8 hospitalized non-motorcycl ist casualties, 1 5
non-motorcyclist fatalities, 1 8 hospitalized motorcyclists, 3 motorcyclist
deaths, 3 young hospital ized non-motorcyclist casualties and 1 fatal
motorcycl ist in every month during the study period. In contrast, there had
been an average increase in accidents and casualties in the comparison
district, Shah Alam.
xii
-
The Survival Analysis shows that there was a significant
improvement in overall traffic safety status in Hulu Langat after the
implementation of the safety programme. In contrast, changes in traffic
safety status in the comparison location, Shah Alam, did not resemble
improvement in Hulu Langat in direction and magnitude.
xiii
-
Abstrak tesis yang dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia Sebagai memenuhi keperluan untuk Ijazah Master Sains.
PENILAIAN PROGRAM KESELAMATAN JALAN RAYA "BEllA 01 JALAN RAYA"
Oleh
LAW TEIK HUA
Ogos 1998
Pengerusi: Profesor Madya Radin Umar, Ph.D.
Fakulti: Kejuruteraan
Pada November 1996, satu program keselamatan jalan raya untuk
mengatasi masalah kemalangan khususnya yang melibatkan motosikal di
daerah Hulu Langat telah dilancarkan. Objektif utama program tersebut
adalah untuk megurangkan kemalangan dan kecederaan akibat
kemalangan jalan raya, terutamanya kecederaan melibatkan penunggang
motosikal .
xiv
-
Keputusan peni/aian bagi keberkesanan program keselamatan ini
selama setahun dipaparkan dalam laporan ini . Pelbagai pendekatan telah
dijalankan dalam menjayakan program ini , dan ini mel ibatkan
penguatkuasaan, pendidikan dan penyebaran maklumat mengenai
keselamatan ja/an raya kepada orang ramai.
Data kemalangan selama 23 bulan sebelum dan 1 2 bulan selepas
program untuk dua kawasan berlainan telah dianalisis untuk
mengecamkan perubahan dalam kemalangan jalan raya. Data
kemalangan di Shah A/am te/ah dijadikan kawalan dalam kajian ini.
Dua kaedah iaitu Analisis Sebe/um dan Selepas dan model siri
masa Box-Jenkins telah digunakan untuk menilai keberkesanan program
keselamatan. Analisis Sabelum dan Selepas membuktikan jumlah
kemalangan sebelum dan selepas di Hulu Langat dan Shah Alam adalah
berbeza secara bererti . Ini menunjukkan program keselamatan telah
berjaya dalam mengurangkan bilangan kemalangan, kecederaan dan
kematian di Hulu Langat.
Analisis siri masa Box-Jenkins menunjukkan pengurangan
sebanyak 57 kemalangan, 8 kecederaan bukan penunggang motosikal ,
1 5 kematian bukan penunggang motosikal, 1 8 kecederaan melibatkan
xv
-
penunggang motosikal , 3 kematian melibatkan penunggang motosikaJ, 3
kecederaan melibatkan pemandu remaja dan 1 kematian meJibatkan
penunggang motosikaJ remaja setiap bulan dalam tempoh pelaksanaan
program keselamatan. Diperhatikan penurunan dalam kemalangsn tidak
berlaku dalam kawasan kawalan, Shah Alam dalam tempoh masa yang
sarna.
Analisis Survival menunjukkan terdapat kemajuan dalam status
keselamatan trafik secara keseluruhan selepas pelaksanaan program
keselamatan. Sebaliknya tidak ada peningkatan dalam status
keselamatan trafik di lokasi kawalan, Shah Alam.
xvi
-
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
Malaysia has undergone rapid socioeconomic development in the
last decade. As a newly industrializing country Malaysia has achieved
average economic growth rates of 8% per year, which is roughly three
times to that witnessed by Europe and North America. As a result,
Malaysia is currently in different phases of the motorization transition. As
of December 1 996, the total number of registered vehicles has amounted
to 7,686,684, which in tum increases the opportunity for individuals to
utilize motor vehicles. Keeping pace with these developments is the
increasing fatality rate resulting in 6,304 deaths in 1 996 (Table 1 ). The
disastrous figure of an average of 4,520 fatal ities per year for the past 1 0
consecutive years is also alarming (Figure 1 ) . The number of fatalities is
expected to increase to 9, 1 27 (Radin, 1 996a) if no proper action is taken
to offset the growth in traffic exposures.
1
-
2
Table 1 : General Road Accident Statistics in Malaysia
Year Vehicles Vehicles Involved Deaths Casualties Total Registered in Accidents
1 976 1 ,429,84 80,995 2,405 16,922 1 9,327 1 977 1 ,621 ,27 86,688 2,512 17,793 20,305 1 978 1 ,829,95 91 ,122 2,561 1 9,098 21 ,659 1 979 1 ,989,39 94,788 2,607 20,004 22,61 1 1 980 2,357,38 99,485 2,568 1 9,836 22,404 1 981 2,901 ,18 1 07,552 2,769 1 9,529 22,298 1 982 3,246,79 126,474 3,266 1 9,554 22,820 1 983 3,594,94 1 39,006 3,550 23,007 26,557 1 984 3,941 ,03 140,012 3,637 21 ,865 25,502 1 985 4,243,14 142,653 3,603 20,321 23,924 1 986 3,52367 1 37,1 75 3,822 1 9,738 23,560 1 987 3,674,48 1 31 ,609 3,320 1 8,419 21 ,799 1 988 3,865,71 124,922 3,335 1 9,203 22,538 1 989 4,1 55,1 9 127,279 3,773 26,264 30,037 1 990 4,547,41 146,747 4,048 25,766 29,814 1 991 4,942,04 161 ,823 4,331 25,776 30,107 1 992 5,259,83 186,805 4,557 31 ,714 36,271 1 993 5,656,03 220,939 4,666 37,020 41 ,686 1 994 6,1 66,43 251 ,686 5,159 43,344 48,503 1 995 6,802,37 275,430 5,712 46,440 52,1 52 1 996 71686168 325191 5 61304 4711 71 531475 (Source: Royal Malaysia Police 1 996)
am
a:m
o
£B)t 5?12
B15l 4331ifB4!Oi
�:m1'''R'R$'2J3l) 3Tl.34)B 3Ifj �. XJj:z;t22B1m2H!2IBl
gmm��$��ss�m�m�mmss�s 'far
Figure 1 : Malaysia Road Deaths 1 976-1 996
-
3
In Malaysia, riding a motorcycle is 1 7 times more dangerous as
compared to driving a passenger car (Radin, 1 995). In 1 996 alone (Table
2) motorcycles made up approximately 51 percent of all registered motor
vehicfes and accounted for 22 percent of traffic accidents. I n addition, a
disproportionately large share of all traffic fatal ities (60 percent) are
resulted from motorcycle accidents.
Table 2: Motorcyde ACCident Statistics in Malaysia
Year Registered Motorcycles Deaths Casualties Total Motorcycles Involved in
Accidents 1976 743,132 51.9% 18,187 22.4% 394 16.3% 5,601 5,995 19n 891,321 54.9% 19,170 22.1% 585 23.8% 6,823 7,408 1978 1,091,12 59.6% 20,556 22.5% 658 25.6% 7,864 8,522 1979 1,183,39 59.4% 19,839 20.9% 642 24.6% 7,496 8,138 1980 1,391,89 59.0% 19,969 20.0% 981 38.2% 7,365 8,346 1981 1,556,51 53.6% 20,433 18.9% 1,041 37.5% 9,005 10,046 1982 1,744,43 53.7% 26,706 21.1% 1,264 38.7% 10,308 11,572 1983 2,037,17 56.6% 30,992 22.2% 1,517 42.7% 12,796 14,313 1984 2,236,16 56.7% 30,451 21.7% 1,609 44.2% 12,726 14,335 1985 2,408,56 56.7% 30,433 21.3% 1,674 46.4% 12,563 14,237 1986 2,534,34 71.9% 27,779 20.2% 1,658 43.3% 12,233 13,891 1987 2,609,69 71.0% 25,074 19.0% 1,466 44.1% 10,947 12,413 1988 2,701,14 69.8% 23,145 18.5% 1,391 41.7% 11,329 12,720 1989 2,848,71 68.5% 23,974 18.8% 1,608 42.6% 14,994 16,602 1990 3,035,93 66.7% 27,845 18.9% 1,826 45.1% 15,857 17,683 1991 3,251,28 65.6% 29,225 18.0% 2,062 47.6% 16,235 18,297 1992 3,473,64 66.0% 39,272 21.0% 2,307 50.6% 21,957 24,264 1993 3,703,83 65.4% 46,511 21.0% 2,416 51.7% 26,226 28,642 1994 3,9n,04 64.4% 58,921 23.4% 2,946 57.1% 31,957 34,903 1995 3,564,75 52.4% 66,508 24.1% 3,362 58.8% 34,372 37,734 1996 3,951,93 51.4% 73,268 22.4% 3,n8 59.9% 35,960 39,738
(Source: Royal Malaysia Police 1 996)
-
4
The increasing number of motor-vehicle crashing through the
1 980s and 1 990s has precipitated efforts to identify effective remedial
programmes that should be directed toward enhancing traffic safety. As a
result, the Malaysian Government proposed the implementation of a pilot
traffic safety programme in Hulu Langat as a first step to address the
above problems.
This thesis presents findings of an evaluation of the Belia Di Jalan
Raya, Hulu Langat safety programme, undertaken by the Malaysian
Government since November 1 996. The aim of the study was to evaluate
and take stock of what had been achieved thus far and to consider what
further action is required to maintain a downward trend for road casualties
for at least the remainder of the present century.
The study was commissioned by the Ministry of Transport and
Malaysia Garakan 48 Movement with the intention that it should be
conducted on a fully inter-departmental basis. Whilst the primary
responsibil ity for road safety policy lies with the Department of Transport,
a number of other departments have a substantive interest in the subject.
Their involvement and support can be crucial to the success of certain
approaches to the problem.
-
.5
The focus of the study is centred on two key issues below:
• Has there been a measurable reduction in the number of accidents
and fatalities, especially in accidents involving motorcyclists, during
the implementation of Belia di Jalan Raya safety programme?
• Is there reasonable evidence to indicate that such reduction can be
attributed to Belia di Jalan Raya safety programme?
Objectives of Selia di Jalan Raya Safety Programme
The main objectives underpinning the Belia di Jalan Raya safety
programme are:
• to place the road safety issue on the public agenda so that safer forms
of behavior can be fostered
• to deter road users from unsafe behaviors by increasing their
perceived risk of being involved in any traffic crash and of the painful
consequences
• to deter road users from unsafe behaviors by increasing the perceived
risk of being apprehended by the police
• to provide information to support decision-making that would lead to
the adoption of safer forms of behavior
-
6
Objectives of the Study
The objectives of this study are as fol lows:
• to examine the effect of the 8elia di Jalan Raya safety programme in
reducing the number of accidents, especially the motorcycle accidents
• to examine the effect of the Belia di Jalan Raya safety programme in
reducing the number of casualties, especially the motorcyclist
casualties
• to examine the effect of the Belia di Jalan Raya safety programme in
reducing the number of young casualties, especially the young
motorcycl ist casualties
Structure of the Thesis
The thesis consists of five chapters. Chapter I present the
objectives of the study and describe the need to implement the traffic
safety programme in the Hulu Langat district.
Chapter " reviews the literature conceming the motorcycle safety
programme centering on two aspects. The first aspect depicts the
approaches taken in safety programmes. These include education, public
information and police enforcement. The second aspect describes the
statistical analysis used to evaluate the effectiveness of previous traffic
safety intervention, policies or programmes.
-
7
A complete discussion on the methodology of this study is
presented in Chapter I I I . The discussion is divided into three parts:
• Part one discusses the details of road safety talks, pol ice
enforcement and public information programmes, which have
been carried out in conjunction with the safety programme
• Part two discusses the process of data collection and
processing
• Part three covers the design and method of the evaluation of
safety programme
The discussion on the results is carried out in Chapter IV. The
methods that are used in the analysis include the Before and After Chi
Square Test, Survival Analysis and Box-Jenkins Time Series Intervention
analysis. The analysis has been carried out by using statistical softwares,
such as Forecast Pro, SAS and SPSS Windows9S.
The final chapter presents the main conclusions of the study. The
limitations of the study and the recommendations for further study are
also documented in this section.
-
CHAPTER II
ROAD SAFETY INTERVENTION AND EVALUATION METHOD
Road Safety education plays an increasingly important part in a
systematic approach to road accident prevention. This is due to the
realization that human errors are an important contributory factor in accident
causation. Road safety education can reduce the probabil ity of these human
errors by influencing the road user in changing his perceptions, cognitions,
attitudes, skil ls and behaviours. Hence, the fundamental approach to road
safety lies in having a sustained programme of safety education with three
main objectives. Firstly, the programme must aim to educate the road users
in the safe and proper use of the road system. Secondly, efforts must be
directed at inculcating the general public on the constant awareness that
accidents can happen to anyone and at any time. Finally, it is to gain the
acceptance of the road users for the various counter measures taken to
prevent road accidents.
As in other areas of traffic safety, considerable effort has been placed
on the education of motorcyclists as an effective means to address
motorcycle crash problems. Education and training have been typically
taken in two forms:
8