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Climate change and natural hazards 1
WMO
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
Climate change and natural hazards
WMO – Cabinet and External Relations Department www.wmo.int
WMO
Universal Postal UnionCOUNCIL OF ADMINISTRATION/POSTAL OPERATIONS COUNCIL
Bern, 5 November 2010
Christian BLONDINWorld Meteorological Organization
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Agenda
�Climate change: few facts
�Hydro-Meteorological Hazards: past and future
trends
�WMO experience in Emergency Assistance and
Prevention/Preparedness
Background information
� Climate change adaptation: the role of WMO
� Framework for Disaster Risk Management and Early Warning Systems
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� For centuries man has tried to change the weather
� He has succeeded in changing climate
� Climate change difficult to explain in everyday terms:
� Uncertainty is not a lack of consensus
� Most scientists write for peers
� A specialized vocabulary
� Simultaneous effects are difficult to discriminate
Weather & climate
Climate change and natural hazards 4
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Abrupt change & uncertainties
� Transitions between equilibrium states
� Abrupt transitions� Uncertainties� Climate models� Scenarios
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IPCC 4th Assessment Report
� 1988: WMO & UNEP established the IPCC� Previous reports approved in 1990, 1995 & 2001� 2007: 4th Assessment Report approved & Nobel
Peace Prize� 5th Assessment Report to be finalized by 2014
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2008 Global Climate assessment2008 Global Climate assessment
� The year 2008 ranked as one of the warmest years on recordaccording to the analyses
made by leading climate centres. The Met Office Hadley Centre analyses showed that
the global combined sea surface and land surface air temperature for 2008 was 0.31°C
(0.56°F) above the 1961–1990 annual averageof 14.0°C (57.2°F), ranking 2008 as the tenth warmest yearon record.
� Arctic sea-ice extentduring the 2008 melt season dropped to its second-lowest levelsince satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual
cycle of melt and growth on 14 September 2008.
� Several extreme weather and climate eventswere recorded in various parts of the
world in 2008, of which perhaps the most dramatic was tropical cyclone Nargis, which
made landfall in Myanmar in May, causing catastrophic destruction and more than70 000 fatalities.
� Other parts of the world suffered severe flooding, extreme heat waves and droughts.
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Observed climate change & its impactsObserved climate change & its impacts
� Warming unequivocal� Rising global air & ocean average
temperatures� Rising average sea level� Widespread melting of snow & ice
� Some predicted impacts:�Warming ~ 0,2 °C/decade over next 20 years�~ 18-59 cm projected sea-level rise by end of century�Increased frequency & intensity of extreme events�neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all impacts, but they can complement each other to significantly reduce risks
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Increase in Heavy Precipitation
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Tropical cyclones
~100 cyclones per year
J. Kossin, UNESCO, Sep 2010
Summary
Heterogeneity in the tropical cyclone records conti nues to pose challenges in trend detection of all metrics, but p rogress is being made along a number of fronts.
There is evidence that the most intense tropical cy clones have become stronger, in a manner congruent with extant theory and numerical simulations.
Despite the observed intensity increases, overall g lobal activity, which also incorporates frequency and duration, exh ibits no obvious trend over the past 30 years.
Continued progress will be made through improved nu merical simulation, more complete development of theoretica l frameworks, and further quantification of past (and future) observational biases and discontinuities.
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Global Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)
Tsunami
1%
Wild Fires
2%
Windstorm
43%
Earthquake
22%
Drought
5%
Extreme
Temp.
2%Flood
25%
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net- UniversitéCatholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
90% of events70% of casualties 75% of economic losses
Economic losses
Loss of life
Number ofevents
Volcano
1,6%
Tsunami
0,4%
Epidemic,
insects
13%
Wild Fires
3%
Windstorm
27%
Earthquake
8%
Drought
5%
Extreme
Temp.
4%
Flood
33%
Slides
5%
Volcano
1%Tsunami
12%Epidemic,
insects
10%
Windstorm
15%
Earthquake
16%
Drought
30%
Extreme
Temp.
5% Flood
10%
are related to hydro-meteorologicalhazards and conditions.
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Disaster Losses, Total and Share of GDP, Richest and Poorest Nations (1985-1999)
Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up…
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
4 11 1424
47
88
160
345
103
495
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Billions of USD per decade
decade
0.05
2.66
0.17
1.73
0.39
0.65
0.220.25
0.67
0.22
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Millions of casualties per decade
decade
While casualties related to hydro-
meteorological disasters are
decreasing
Présentation pour F Jacq - 11 mai 2009
12Climate change and natural hazards 12
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Info to donors
(1) Assessment of urgent needs
(2) Identification of medium- andlong-term requirements
DonorsDonors’ reaction
Offers of support
EARTSecretariatDonorsetc.
Co-ordination
Implementationof co-ordinatedassistance
Emergency Assistance Fund
WMO VCP
Bilateral agreements
Gov. Aid Package
Emergency Assistance: Field MissionEmergency Assistance: Field Mission
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Major achievements
• Improvement in the range and accuracy of weather forecasts: today a five day weather forecast is as reliable as a two-day forecast 20 years ago.
• Weather forecasts reach everywhere in the world in real time, between 2 to 3 hours.
• El Niño can now be forecast 5 to 6 months in advance.
• Global awareness about climate changeand the dangers posed by natural disasters.
• Improved assessment and management of water resources.
• Awarding more than 3 000 fellowshipsin the last decade for the training of scientists, thereby raising the level of scientific knowledge in over 150 countries.
• IPCC awarded Nobel Peace prize in 2007
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Simplified Schematic of Linkages in
Climate and Disaster Risk Management
Climate Mitigation
Emission reduction
Climate AdaptationMulti-sectoral planning and risk management
Incremental cumulative risk
Meteorological, Hydrological and climate extremes
Geological
Disaster Risk Management
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A Global Framework for Climate Services
�WCC-3 key outcome�4 major components:
�Observation & monitoring�Research and modelling�Climate services
information system �Climate services
applications (New!)�A framework to support:
�Disaster risk management�Climate change adaptation�Achievement of UN MDGs
Climate change and natural hazards 16
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Thank youfor yourattention
World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water
WMO
Climate change and natural hazards 17
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The Earth's protective blanket
� Climate variability: long-term climate fluctuations
� Natural greenhouse effect: the atmosphere as a blanket
� Blanket has kept global mean temperature at ~15 oC
� Climate change:human activities increase blanket effect
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Greenhouse gas generation & abundance
(a) Global emissions of principal anthropogenic GHGs 1970 to 2004 (b) Distribution of anthropogenic GHGs in 2004: CO2-equivalent total emissions(c) Distribution of anthropogenic GHG emitting sectors in 2004: CO2-equivalent total emissions (forestry includes deforestation)
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Climate change adaptation: the role of WMO
�Observation systems
�Research activities
�Capacity building
�Regional Climate Centres
�Regional Training Centres
�Human resources reinforcement
�WMO Programme for LDCs
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Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Programme
� Prediction and early warnings on natural disasters
� Contribution to Hyogo Framework for Action
� Partnership with IOC/UNESCO in Tsunami Warning System
�Development of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems
� Focus on preparedness & risk reduction
Climate change and natural hazards 21
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Example of WMO coordinated Research Example of WMO coordinated Research ProgrammeProgramme: THORPEX: THORPEX
Image 06/08/2010 – 06:00 TU – Monsoon –heavy rains in Pakistan and India; Heat wave and drought in
Russia; start of the Cyclone season affecting the Caribbean (cf. Haiti):
To what extent and with which delays these hazards can be forecast?
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Example of WMO coordinated Research Example of WMO coordinated Research ProgrammeProgramme: THORPEX: THORPEX
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WMO Leverages International and Regional Cooperation to support National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
189 Members
Data policy and Exchange:
Resolutions 40 (Cg XII) and 29 (Cg XIII)
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WMOWMO ’’ ss Global Tropical CycloneGlobal Tropical CycloneEarly Warning SystemEarly Warning System
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Disaster Losses, Total and Share of GDP, Richest and Poorest Nations (1985-1999)
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Marine
Health (etc.)…
Geological
Communitiesat risk
hazard warning
National to local governments
Hydrological
Meteorological
NATIONAL SERVICES
post-disaster
response
Most countries are in relief and responsemode!
hazard
warn
ing
Early warning systemsare not an integral part of
disaster riskmanagement!
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Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health (etc.)
COORDINATION AMONGNATIONAL SERVICES
feedback
feedback
Community Preparedness
warnings
Alignment ofnational to local policies, plans, resources and coordination mechanisms
warnings
feedback
Investments in Early Warning Systems!
warnings
preventiveactions
1
2
3
4
5
5
33
5
Need to shift to Preparedness!
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1. Identification of various user-communities and their requirements
– (eg: Urban planning, Agriculture, Energy, Water, Insurance)
2. Increased investments in observations, data rescue programmes and statistical analysis of hazards
3. Climate forecasting technologies(seasonal, interannual, decadal) provide an unprecedented opportunityfor improved sectoral planning for DRR
– Need for More Coordinated Research relevant for DRM– Need Operationalize climate forecasting and analysis tools
4. Developing climate related information and decision tools for DRR
WCC-III Recommendations on Climate Services for DRM
Climate change and natural hazards 29
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Example of Climate Services in Risk Reduction(Many other examples exist)
Season to yearNext hour to
10 daysDecade Long term
Scenarios
Short to medtermweather forecasts:
Tropical cyclone Forecasts and warnings
Probabilistic seasonalforecasts: Probabilities of
severity and intensity of tropical cyclones
Future Decadaltrend analysis: of
severity and intensity of tropical
cyclones
ClimateChange
scenarios –IPCC Process
�Emergency planning activation and response�Evacuations, inventory, preparinghouses
�Strategic Planning�Building codes�Infrastructure & Urban Developmentand Retrofitting�Land Zoning and Planning
�Urban & coastalEmergency Preparedness�Inventory: Food, Construction Materials, Shelter, Emergency funds
�Emergency Services�GovernmentAuthorities�Insurance�Public, Media
�Urban planners�Local to national Governments�Banks�Insurance
DE
CIS
ION
M
AK
ER
SD
EC
ISIO
NS
SE
RV
ICE
S
�Local – National Government�Insurance�Suppliers�Public, Media
�Negotiators�Parlimentarian�Local/nationalgovernments�Private sector
�International negotiations and agreements�National policies and legilation