united states department of world agricultural production€¦ · 10/11/2015 · of agricultural...

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign

Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 11-15 November 2015

South Africa: Lower Corn Area and Output Forecast

USDA forecasts South Africa’s 2015/16 corn production at 12.75 million metric tons, down 0.75 million tons from last month, but up 1.95 million tons from last year’s drought-reduced crop. Area is forecast at 3.0 million hectares, down 200,000 hectares from last month and down 48,000 hectares from last year. The forecast yield of 4.25 tons per hectare is 2.5 percent below the 10-year trend, and assumes normal weather for the upcoming growing season. Estimated area was lowered this month in response to the planting intentions survey released by South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) on October 27th.. Commercial farmers indicated they would plant less corn than last year even though local corn prices are high

World Agricultural Production

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

resulting from low stocks caused by last year’s drought. Planting was delayed in the eastern corn belt of KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga provinces where planting begins in early October but rainfall was below normal during October and early November.

A strong El Niño is forecast for the 2015/16 growing season with most sea surface temperature (SST) models indicating that the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) will peak near the end of January 2016. Strong El Niño conditions measured by the ONI could reduce corn yields in South Africa if drought occurs between January and March during pollination and grain-filling stages. During the past 33 years, strong to very strong El Niño conditions have reduced South Africa corn yields below trend ranging from -17 to -61 percent. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Australia Wheat: Heat and Dryness Reduce Production Forecast USDA forecasts 2015/16 Australia wheat production at 26.0 million metric tons, down 1.0 million tons from last month, and up 2.3 million tons from last year. Area is forecast at 13.8 million hectares, unchanged from both last month and last year. Yield is forecast at 1.88 tons per hectare which is 3 percent below the 5-year average. Dry conditions from mid-September through mid-October stressed the wheat crop as it entered heading and grain-fill stages. Low rainfall and higher than average temperatures lowered wheat yield expectations in southern New South Wales and parts of Western Australia. In Victoria, these conditions have affected the entire state but

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Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA November 2015Office of Global Analysis

mailto:[email protected]

particularly the Wimmera and Mallee regions where soil moisture reserves were low. Harvest is underway in the northern areas. Analysis of satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and historical yield data for the major producing states of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia indicate wheat yield at 1.88 tons per hectare. Higher temperatures in early October altered the NDVI curve to below average and below last year as shown in the graphic for Victoria, Australia. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Australia Rapeseed: Heat and Dryness Reduce Production Prospects USDA forecasts 2015/16 Australia rapeseed production at 3.2 million metric tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month, and down 0.2 million tons from last year. Area is forecast at 2.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.2 million from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.28 tons per hectare, essentially matching the 5-year average. Yield prospects for the Australian rapeseed crop have diminished; reflecting below-average September precipitation and high temperatures in October across major producing areas of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Western Australia and New South Wales, the two largest producing states, received beneficial early-season rains, partially offsetting the dry September. Dryness during the flowering stage resulted in moisture stress as the crops entered the critical flowering and pod setting. The moisture shortfall was particularly acute in the rapeseed growing region of Victoria, particularly in the Mallee and Wimmera districts. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Argentina: Corn Area Prospects Increase USDA forecasts Argentina corn for 2015/2016 at 25.6 million metric tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month, but down 0.9 million tons from last year. Area is estimated at 3.2 million hectares, up 0.2 million hectares from last month, but unchanged from last year. Yield is estimated at 8.0 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month but down 3.4 percent from last

year. Argentine farmers have planted about 35 percent of the intended corn area, a similar pace to the previous two years. Soil moisture conditions throughout much of Argentina are improving from recent rains. Rains to the south and central portion of the planting core of the country in October have now provided fields showing good emergence after some late, cool weather in the South. Recent rains in Cordoba and across the northeast regions have resulted in excellent conditions for

planting and establishment. (For more information, please contact [email protected].)

3





Brazil Corn: 2015/16 Production Forecast at 81.5 Million Tons USDA forecasts 2015/16 Brazil corn production at 81.5 million metric tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month, but down 3.5 million tons from last year’s record. Area is forecast at 15.8 million hectares, up 0.3 million hectares from last month and up slightly from last year. Yield is forecast at 5.16 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month. Estimated area was increased due to improved expected returns for the second-crop corn. Planting of first-season corn has begun. First-season corn is planted in September and is harvested in March. A larger second-season or safrinha crop is planted after the early-season soybean harvest typically in January and February. Safrinha corn is harvested in June through August and is mostly exported. First-season corn output is expected to decrease by 8 percent relative to last year because area is down. First-season corn directly competes for land with soybeans in the southern states of Brazil and returns for soybeans are higher than for corn. Safrinha corn, however, follows soybeans and is planted after the soybean harvest in the Center-West region of Brazil. As soybean area increases more land is available for safrinha corn. Roughly two-thirds of Brazil’s 2015/16 crop will be from the safrinha season, higher than the 5-year average of 50 percent. Safrinha corn area is expected to increase almost 5 percent but production is up only 2 percent due to a return to normal yields. Last year’s safrinha corn yields were a record. For the last four years safrinha corn yields have been higher than average due to an extended rainy season. Typically the rainy season in the Center-West region of Brazil ends the last week of April or the beginning of May, however recently the rains have continued until the beginning of June. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Canada Rapeseed: Estimated Production Revised Up from October USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for 2015/16 at 15.5 million metric tons, up 1.2 million tons from last month but down 0.91 million tons from last year. Area is estimated at 7.90 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.44 million hectares from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.96 metric tons per hectare, up 8.3 percent from last month but down slightly from last year. The month-to-month production increase is based on provincial harvest reports. Hot and dry conditions during the earlier part of the growing season resulted in short and stunted growth. In late July and early August, however, storms across the Western Prairies boosted pod fill. Yields in both Saskatchewan and Alberta are reported at roughly 3 bushels per acre above the September farmer survey from Statistic Canada. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) European Union (EU) Wheat: Record Production EU wheat production for 2015/16 is estimated at a record 157.3 million metric tons, up 2.0 million from last month, and up 0.8 million tons from last year’s record. Area is estimated at 26.7 million hectares, almost unchanged from last month, but down 0.1 million hectares from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 5.89 tons per hectare, 1.2 percent above last month.

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Despite early-season concerns, the summer heat and dryness did not damage the wheat crop. Well-timed rainfall along with stored winter soil moisture was beneficial in achieving above average winter grain yields. Almost all EU wheat is autumn sown.

The biggest EU production changes this month occurred in the United Kingdom, which is up 0.6 million tons to 16.1 million; Germany, up 0.5 million tons to 26.5 million; the Czech Republic, up 0.2 million tons to 5.3 million, and Romania, up 0.2 million tons to 7.3 million. For a list of all EU countries’ estimated area and production levels (including back years), please go to the PSD Online downloadable file “EU Countries Area & Production,” located at http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx . (For more information, please contact [email protected].) Ukraine Corn: Harvest Reports Indicate Yield Down from Last Year

Ukraine corn production for 2015/16 is estimated at 23.0 million metric tons, down 2.0 million tons from last month and down 5.45 million tons from last year. The month-to-month decrease is based on harvest reports from the Ukraine Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food. Yield is estimated at 5.75 tons per hectare, down 8.0 percent from last month and down 6.5 percent from last year. Severe drought prevailed throughout the growing season in the western half of Ukraine, but excellent conditions and high yields in several key territories in the east offset below-normal

yields elsewhere, and the overall estimated yield is 1.6 percent above the 5-year average. Harvest was about 80 percent complete by the beginning of November, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.

5


http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx


Field operations have benefited from generally dry weather over the past two months. Harvest typically continues into early December. (For more information, please contact [email protected].) India Soybean: Low Yields Reduce Production USDA estimates 2015/16 India soybean production at 9.5 million metric tons, down 1.5 million tons from last month, but up 0.5 million tons from last year. The major factor shaping the current estimate is continued reports of lower-than-expected yields. Area is estimated at 11.65 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.7 million hectares from last year, and historically the second largest. Yield is estimated at 0.82 tons per hectare, down 13 percent from last month, and down 1.2 percent from last year, and the second lowest in 5 years. India’s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon season, June-September) under rainfed conditions. Most of the soybean crop is grown in Northwest and Central India where the main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). The optimum planting period is typically the third week of June to the second week of July. The majority of 2015/16 crop was planted during this period that contributed to above-average yield prospects earlier in the season.

The 2015/16 soybean season started favorably with timely arrival of the monsoon rainfall. Overall, in June all major soybean growing areas received above average rainfall that resulted in the second highest planted area on record and favorable plant establishment. Most regions in Maharashtra and Rajasthan received below average rainfall in July-August; however, during the same period most areas in Madhya Pradesh had above average rainfall. The poor rainfall (in some areas) and above average (in others) resulted in similar outcomes, that is, below average yield returns. The overall yields are estimated below the 5-year-average, representing the second lowest in 5 years. The majority of the crop has reached maturity, and harvest is in progress in the major production states. (For more information, please contact Dath Mita, PhD [email protected].)

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World Agricultural Production U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD)

Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051

http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/ Telephone: (202) 720-1156 Fax: (202) 720-1158

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-547), November 10, 2015. Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at 1-800-363-2068. The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, December 10, 2015.

Conversion Table

Metric tons to bushels

Wheat, soybeans = MT * 36.7437 Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * 39.36825 Barley = MT * 45.929625 Oats = MT * 68.894438

Metric tons to 480-lb bales

Cotton = MT * 4.592917

Metric tons to hundredweight

Rice = MT * 22.04622

Area & weight

1 hectare = 2.471044 acres 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

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http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/

For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division

Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051

Telephone: (202) 720-1156 Fax: (202) 720-1158

GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz 202-720-4056 [email protected] Deputy Director Vacant USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Technical Lead Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD 202-720-0107 [email protected] Western and Central Europe Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 [email protected] and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 [email protected] and other FSU-12 countries

Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka Arnella Trent 202-720-0881 [email protected] and Bangladesh

East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133 [email protected] India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean 202-720-7366 [email protected] Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD 202-260-8109 [email protected] Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] Eastern United States Vacant




The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

(WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.

FAS Reports and Databases:

Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx

Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

EU Countries Area & Production Estimates http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx

Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

Export Sales Report: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

National Agricultural Statistics Service: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/


http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDownload.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Million Metric Tons

Table 01 World Crop Production Summary

World

-

Total

Foreign

North

America

North

America

North

America

Former

Soviet

Former

Soviet

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

South

America

South

America

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

All

Others

none

-

none

-

United

States

Mexico

-

Canada

-

Russia

-

Ukraine

-

China

-

India

-

Indo-

nesia

Paki-

stan

Thai-

land

Argen-

tina

Brazil

-

Aus-

tralia

Turkey

-

none

-

none

-

South

Africa

Commodity

---Million metric tons---

Wheat

2013/14 240.618.81.925.35.310.50.024.00.093.5121.922.352.13.437.558.1657.0715.1

2014/15 prel. 246.415.31.823.76.012.50.025.50.095.9126.224.859.13.729.455.1670.0725.1

2015/16 proj.

Oct 250.719.51.627.06.010.50.025.00.088.9130.027.061.03.726.055.8676.9732.8

Nov 252.419.51.526.06.010.50.025.00.088.9130.027.060.53.826.055.8677.1733.0

Coarse Grains

2013/14 330.613.115.512.282.635.75.05.69.143.2225.139.935.732.028.7367.1914.01,281.1

2014/15 prel. 348.79.511.311.787.633.54.95.68.842.0222.239.340.432.422.0377.2919.81,297.0

2015/16 proj.

Oct 323.214.114.112.882.632.54.85.79.641.1231.534.839.832.023.6365.1902.11,267.2

Nov 324.514.113.412.884.134.14.85.79.640.1231.532.839.031.323.7368.2901.41,269.6

Rice, Milled

2013/14 148.40.50.00.68.31.020.56.736.3106.6142.50.10.60.10.06.1472.3478.4

2014/15 prel. 149.20.50.00.58.51.018.86.935.8104.8144.50.00.70.20.07.1471.2478.3

2015/16 proj.

Oct 148.70.50.00.58.00.916.46.936.3103.5145.50.00.70.20.06.0468.1474.0

Nov 148.10.50.00.58.00.916.46.936.3103.5145.50.00.70.10.06.1467.4473.5

Total Grains

2013/14 719.632.317.438.196.247.225.436.345.4243.4489.562.388.435.566.3431.32,043.32,474.6

2014/15 prel. 744.225.213.035.9102.147.023.638.044.6242.6492.864.1100.136.351.4439.42,061.02,500.4

2015/16 proj.

Oct 722.634.115.740.296.643.921.237.645.9233.5507.061.8101.535.849.6426.92,047.12,474.1

Nov 725.034.114.939.298.145.521.237.645.9232.5507.059.9100.235.249.7430.12,046.02,476.0

Oilseeds

2013/14 81.82.51.95.890.056.90.64.611.536.858.916.713.60.924.099.0406.4505.4

2014/15 prel. 84.62.61.84.299.265.50.55.112.133.957.616.313.01.222.5116.0420.1536.1

2015/16 proj.

Oct 82.72.22.24.1102.861.70.65.012.536.354.516.313.31.020.3115.3415.8531.0

Nov 82.12.22.14.0102.861.30.64.312.534.854.416.313.21.021.5117.7413.2531.0

Cotton

2013/14 17.62.30.04.18.01.20.09.50.031.032.80.00.00.90.012.9107.5120.4

2014/15 prel. 17.43.20.12.37.01.10.010.60.029.530.00.00.01.40.016.3102.6118.9

2015/16 proj.

Oct 16.72.80.12.16.51.00.09.50.029.025.30.00.01.10.013.394.0107.4

Nov 16.42.80.12.16.51.00.09.00.028.525.00.00.01.00.013.392.3105.6

1/ Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.


Table 02 Wheat Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MMTPercent

Yield

(Metric tons per hectare)

Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million metric tons)

Change in Production

2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Nov Percent

2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

219.88World 1.087.860.030.20732.98222.42 224.90 224.82 3.25 3.26 3.26 3.26 715.11 725.12 732.79

18.35United States 1.260.690.000.0055.8418.77 19.06 19.06 3.17 2.94 2.93 2.93 58.11 55.15 55.84

201.53Total Foreign 1.077.170.030.20677.14203.65 205.84 205.76 3.26 3.29 3.29 3.29 657.00 669.98 676.95

none

25.88European Union 0.520.811.302.01157.2726.79 26.67 26.70 5.58 5.84 5.82 5.89 144.43 156.47 155.26

24.12China 3.043.830.000.00130.0024.06 24.15 24.15 5.06 5.24 5.38 5.38 121.93 126.17 130.00

South Asia

30.00 India -7.21-6.910.000.0088.9430.47 30.60 30.60 3.12 3.15 2.91 2.91 93.51 95.85 88.94

8.64 Pakistan -1.96-0.500.000.0025.009.10 9.10 9.10 2.78 2.80 2.75 2.75 24.00 25.50 25.00

2.55 Afghanistan -0.50-0.030.000.005.002.56 2.55 2.55 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 5.00 5.03 5.00

0.77 Nepal -5.26-0.100.000.001.800.77 0.77 0.77 2.48 2.47 2.34 2.34 1.90 1.90 1.80

Former Soviet Union - 12

23.40 Russia 2.401.42-0.82-0.5060.5023.64 25.70 25.50 2.23 2.50 2.37 2.37 52.09 59.08 61.00

6.57 Ukraine 9.092.250.000.0027.006.30 7.00 7.00 3.39 3.93 3.86 3.86 22.28 24.75 27.00

12.95 Kazakhstan 7.731.000.000.0014.0011.92 11.50 11.50 1.08 1.09 1.22 1.22 13.94 13.00 14.00

1.40 Uzbekistan 0.700.050.000.007.201.40 1.40 1.40 4.86 5.11 5.14 5.14 6.80 7.15 7.20

0.69 Belarus -17.24-0.500.000.002.400.73 0.70 0.70 3.06 4.00 3.43 3.43 2.10 2.90 2.40

10.44Canada -11.62-3.420.000.0026.009.48 9.60 9.60 3.59 3.10 2.71 2.71 37.53 29.42 26.00

South America

3.50 Argentina -16.00-2.000.000.0010.504.20 3.50 3.50 3.00 2.98 3.00 3.00 10.50 12.50 10.50

2.20 Brazil 0.000.000.000.006.002.73 2.45 2.45 2.41 2.20 2.45 2.45 5.30 6.00 6.00

0.50 Uruguay 61.110.66-8.42-0.161.740.40 0.53 0.49 3.30 2.70 3.58 3.59 1.65 1.08 1.90

12.63Australia 9.862.33-3.70-1.0026.0013.81 13.80 13.80 2.00 1.71 1.96 1.88 25.30 23.67 27.00

Africa

1.35 Egypt -2.41-0.20-3.11-0.268.101.35 1.36 1.26 6.11 6.15 6.15 6.43 8.25 8.30 8.36

3.28 Morocco 56.862.900.000.008.003.06 3.20 3.20 2.13 1.67 2.50 2.50 7.00 5.10 8.00

1.75 Ethiopia -11.36-0.500.000.003.901.80 1.80 1.80 2.43 2.44 2.17 2.17 4.25 4.40 3.90

2.00 Algeria 42.110.800.000.002.701.70 2.10 2.10 1.65 1.12 1.29 1.29 3.30 1.90 2.70

Middle East

7.70 Turkey 27.874.250.000.0019.507.71 7.86 7.86 2.44 1.98 2.48 2.48 18.75 15.25 19.50

6.40 Iran 7.691.000.000.0014.006.80 6.80 6.80 2.27 1.91 2.06 2.06 14.50 13.00 14.00

2.57 Iraq -5.71-0.200.000.003.302.46 2.45 2.45 1.29 1.42 1.35 1.35 3.30 3.50 3.30

1.55 Syria 40.001.000.000.003.501.30 1.45 1.45 2.58 1.92 2.41 2.41 4.00 2.50 3.50

0.64Mexico 2.520.092.160.083.780.71 0.70 0.82 5.29 5.21 5.29 4.59 3.38 3.69 3.70

8.06Others -4.00-0.880.130.0321.018.40 8.10 8.22 2.73 2.60 2.59 2.56 22.01 21.89 20.98

World and Selected Countries and Regions


Table 03 Total Coarse Grain Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

321.81World -2.12-27.470.182.311,269.56322.40 321.15 321.92 3.98 4.02 3.95 3.94 1,281.06 1,297.03 1,267.25

39.81United States -2.41-9.080.833.02368.1637.77 37.66 37.66 9.22 9.99 9.70 9.78 367.09 377.23 365.14

282.01Total Foreign -2.00-18.39-0.08-0.70901.41284.63 283.49 284.26 3.24 3.23 3.18 3.17 913.97 919.79 902.11

none

38.38China 4.209.330.000.00231.5039.07 39.83 39.83 5.86 5.69 5.81 5.81 225.07 222.17 231.50

31.39European Union -11.78-20.090.741.11150.4630.76 30.27 30.42 5.06 5.54 4.93 4.95 158.92 170.55 149.34

South America

16.81 Brazil -4.02-3.521.821.5084.0816.75 16.48 16.78 4.91 5.23 5.01 5.01 82.60 87.60 82.58

5.93 Argentina 1.580.534.931.6034.065.17 5.23 5.43 6.01 6.48 6.20 6.27 35.67 33.53 32.46


15.49 Russia -3.43-1.39-2.01-0.8039.0016.73 15.70 16.10 2.31 2.41 2.54 2.42 35.74 40.39 39.80

8.78 Ukraine -16.57-6.52-5.61-1.9532.838.44 7.44 7.44 4.55 4.66 4.68 4.41 39.92 39.35 34.78

2.26 Kazakhstan 1.470.050.000.003.442.31 2.39 2.39 1.55 1.47 1.44 1.44 3.51 3.39 3.44

1.23 Belarus -5.66-0.240.000.004.001.21 1.22 1.22 3.10 3.50 3.29 3.29 3.79 4.24 4.00

Africa

13.25 Nigeria -5.60-1.070.000.0017.9513.65 13.10 13.10 1.46 1.39 1.37 1.37 19.29 19.02 17.95

3.28 South Africa 18.562.09-5.21-0.7413.373.25 3.42 3.22 4.73 3.47 4.13 4.15 15.52 11.28 14.11

5.17 Tanzania 8.080.500.000.006.695.25 5.25 5.25 1.26 1.18 1.27 1.27 6.51 6.19 6.69

4.08 Burkina 4.800.210.000.004.503.85 3.85 3.85 1.11 1.12 1.17 1.17 4.54 4.29 4.50

6.16 Ethiopia -7.12-0.950.000.0012.405.89 5.84 5.84 2.35 2.27 2.12 2.12 14.47 13.35 12.40

0.94 Egypt 0.590.040.000.006.860.97 0.97 0.97 7.10 7.04 7.05 7.05 6.66 6.82 6.86

3.02 Mali -2.22-0.100.000.004.403.20 3.20 3.20 1.15 1.41 1.38 1.38 3.48 4.50 4.40

25.24India -4.46-1.87-2.43-1.0040.1024.38 25.00 24.98 1.71 1.72 1.64 1.61 43.22 41.97 41.10

Southeast Asia

3.12 Indonesia 9.090.800.000.009.602.94 3.14 3.14 2.92 2.99 3.06 3.06 9.10 8.80 9.60

2.58 Philippines 1.680.130.000.007.802.56 2.60 2.60 2.91 3.00 3.00 3.00 7.53 7.67 7.80

1.18 Vietnam 13.210.700.000.006.001.25 1.30 1.30 4.40 4.24 4.62 4.62 5.19 5.30 6.00

1.15 Thailand -2.06-0.100.000.004.761.13 1.12 1.12 4.31 4.30 4.25 4.25 4.96 4.86 4.76

9.39Mexico -3.29-1.07-2.03-0.6531.339.31 9.18 9.08 3.41 3.48 3.49 3.45 32.02 32.39 31.98

5.40Canada 7.621.680.170.0423.674.44 4.91 4.91 5.33 4.96 4.81 4.82 28.75 21.99 23.63

5.19Australia 9.531.110.000.0012.785.30 5.64 5.64 2.34 2.20 2.27 2.27 12.16 11.66 12.78

Middle East

4.24 Turkey 48.554.600.000.0014.084.28 4.35 4.35 3.08 2.21 3.24 3.24 13.08 9.48 14.08

2.07 Iran 1.740.100.000.005.862.01 2.04 2.04 2.59 2.87 2.88 2.88 5.36 5.76 5.86

66.31Others -3.24-3.350.180.1899.9170.54 70.04 70.08 1.46 1.46 1.42 1.43 96.95 103.26 99.74

World and Selected Countries and Regions; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum


Table 04 Corn Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

181.16World -3.36-33.920.232.26974.87178.61 177.05 177.46 5.47 5.65 5.49 5.49 991.43 1,008.79 972.60

35.39United States -3.95-14.280.732.50346.8233.64 32.64 32.64 9.93 10.73 10.55 10.62 351.27 361.09 344.31

145.77Total Foreign -3.03-19.65-0.04-0.24628.05144.97 144.41 144.81 4.39 4.47 4.35 4.34 640.16 647.70 628.29

none

36.32China 4.339.330.000.00225.0037.07 37.85 37.85 6.02 5.82 5.94 5.94 218.49 215.67 225.00

South America

15.80 Brazil -4.12-3.501.881.5081.5015.75 15.50 15.80 5.06 5.40 5.16 5.16 80.00 85.00 80.00

3.40 Argentina -3.40-0.906.671.6025.603.20 3.00 3.20 7.65 8.28 8.00 8.00 26.00 26.50 24.00

0.32 Bolivia 0.690.010.000.000.730.32 0.32 0.32 2.30 2.30 2.31 2.31 0.73 0.73 0.73

9.66European Union -23.74-17.98-0.42-0.2557.759.53 9.19 9.27 6.69 7.95 6.31 6.23 64.63 75.73 58.00

Africa

3.08 South Africa 18.061.95-5.56-0.7512.753.05 3.20 3.00 4.85 3.54 4.22 4.25 14.93 10.80 13.50

4.25 Nigeria -6.85-0.520.000.007.004.15 3.80 3.80 1.81 1.81 1.84 1.84 7.70 7.52 7.00

2.68 Ethiopia -7.69-0.500.000.006.002.40 2.40 2.40 2.78 2.71 2.50 2.50 7.45 6.50 6.00

0.71 Egypt 0.670.040.000.006.000.75 0.75 0.75 8.12 8.00 8.00 8.00 5.80 5.96 6.00

4.12 Tanzania 10.000.500.000.005.504.00 4.00 4.00 1.30 1.25 1.38 1.38 5.36 5.00 5.50

1.68 Malawi -26.78-1.050.000.002.881.75 1.75 1.75 2.17 2.25 1.64 1.64 3.64 3.93 2.88

1.00 Zambia -22.54-0.760.000.002.621.21 0.96 0.96 2.57 2.80 2.72 2.72 2.57 3.38 2.62

1.80 Kenya 5.660.150.000.002.801.65 1.70 1.70 1.56 1.61 1.65 1.65 2.80 2.65 2.80

1.00 Uganda -5.45-0.150.000.002.601.00 1.00 1.00 2.75 2.75 2.60 2.60 2.75 2.75 2.60

0.90 Zimbabwe -46.15-0.600.000.000.701.30 1.53 1.53 0.89 1.00 0.46 0.46 0.80 1.30 0.70


4.83 Ukraine -19.16-5.45-8.00-2.0023.004.63 4.00 4.00 6.40 6.15 6.25 5.75 30.90 28.45 25.00

2.32 Russia 19.212.180.000.0013.502.60 2.70 2.70 5.01 4.36 5.00 5.00 11.64 11.33 13.50

South Asia

9.07 India -4.94-1.17-2.17-0.5022.509.30 9.20 9.20 2.68 2.55 2.50 2.45 24.26 23.67 23.00

1.14 Pakistan 2.200.110.000.005.101.14 1.15 1.15 4.38 4.38 4.43 4.43 4.99 4.99 5.10

0.91 Nepal -13.04-0.300.000.002.000.91 0.90 0.90 2.52 2.54 2.22 2.22 2.28 2.30 2.00

Southeast Asia

3.12 Indonesia 9.090.800.000.009.602.94 3.14 3.14 2.92 2.99 3.06 3.06 9.10 8.80 9.60

2.58 Philippines 1.680.130.000.007.802.56 2.60 2.60 2.91 3.00 3.00 3.00 7.53 7.67 7.80

1.18 Vietnam 13.210.700.000.006.001.25 1.30 1.30 4.40 4.24 4.62 4.62 5.19 5.30 6.00

1.12 Thailand -2.08-0.100.000.004.701.10 1.09 1.09 4.38 4.36 4.31 4.31 4.90 4.80 4.70

7.05Mexico -7.77-1.980.000.0023.507.33 7.00 7.00 3.24 3.48 3.36 3.36 22.88 25.48 23.50

1.48Canada 7.080.810.000.0012.301.22 1.30 1.30 9.59 9.39 9.46 9.46 14.19 11.49 12.30

0.58Turkey 25.001.200.000.006.000.55 0.62 0.62 8.79 8.73 9.68 9.68 5.10 4.80 6.00

23.68Others -4.69-2.590.300.1652.6322.34 22.46 22.49 2.26 2.47 2.34 2.34 53.57 55.22 52.47



Table 05 Barley Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

50.62World 2.593.650.140.20144.8149.67 49.55 50.01 2.85 2.84 2.92 2.90 144.50 141.16 144.61

1.23United States 18.040.710.000.004.671.01 1.26 1.26 3.84 3.91 3.71 3.71 4.72 3.95 4.67

49.39Total Foreign 2.142.940.140.20140.1548.66 48.30 48.75 2.83 2.82 2.90 2.87 139.78 137.20 139.94

none

12.41European Union 0.450.271.490.8960.7012.39 12.30 12.36 4.81 4.88 4.86 4.91 59.67 60.43 59.81


8.02 Russia -16.61-3.33-4.57-0.8016.708.80 7.80 8.20 1.92 2.27 2.24 2.04 15.39 20.03 17.50

3.23 Ukraine -7.94-0.751.160.108.703.20 2.90 2.90 2.34 2.95 2.97 3.00 7.56 9.45 8.60

1.84 Kazakhstan 7.790.190.000.002.601.91 2.00 2.00 1.38 1.26 1.30 1.30 2.54 2.41 2.60

0.57 Belarus -11.11-0.250.000.002.000.63 0.60 0.60 2.94 3.60 3.33 3.33 1.67 2.25 2.00

0.33 Azerbaijan 16.670.100.000.000.700.30 0.30 0.30 2.50 2.00 2.33 2.33 0.82 0.60 0.70

2.65Canada 6.760.480.000.007.602.14 2.35 2.35 3.86 3.33 3.23 3.23 10.24 7.12 7.60

3.81Australia 11.060.890.000.008.903.84 4.00 4.00 2.41 2.09 2.23 2.23 9.17 8.01 8.90

Middle East

3.33 Turkey 85.003.400.000.007.403.40 3.40 3.40 2.19 1.18 2.18 2.18 7.30 4.00 7.40

1.64 Iran 3.130.100.000.003.301.58 1.60 1.60 1.71 2.03 2.06 2.06 2.80 3.20 3.30

1.07 Iraq 5.000.050.000.001.051.15 1.16 1.16 0.88 0.87 0.91 0.91 0.94 1.00 1.05

1.28 Syria 42.860.150.000.000.500.50 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.90 0.35 0.50

Africa

1.21 Ethiopia -9.52-0.200.000.001.901.25 1.20 1.20 1.70 1.68 1.58 1.58 2.05 2.10 1.90

1.69 Morocco 105.881.800.000.003.501.44 1.60 1.60 1.60 1.18 2.19 2.19 2.70 1.70 3.50

0.90 Algeria 0.000.000.000.001.300.80 1.00 1.00 1.67 1.63 1.30 1.30 1.50 1.30 1.30

0.24 Tunisia -55.56-0.500.000.000.400.58 0.40 0.40 1.31 1.55 1.00 1.00 0.32 0.90 0.40

0.08 South Africa 14.900.050.000.000.350.09 0.10 0.10 3.28 3.55 3.65 3.65 0.27 0.30 0.35

South America

1.27 Argentina 17.240.500.000.003.400.90 0.95 0.95 3.74 3.22 3.58 3.58 4.75 2.90 3.40

0.11 Uruguay 7.040.030.000.000.380.10 0.10 0.10 3.59 3.55 3.65 3.65 0.40 0.36 0.38

0.11 Brazil -6.67-0.020.000.000.280.12 0.10 0.10 3.14 2.56 2.80 2.80 0.33 0.30 0.28

0.70India -12.62-0.230.000.001.600.67 0.80 0.80 2.52 2.72 2.00 2.00 1.75 1.83 1.60

0.45China 0.000.000.000.001.500.44 0.42 0.42 3.33 3.41 3.57 3.57 1.50 1.50 1.50

0.22Mexico 6.360.040.000.000.590.22 0.23 0.23 2.56 2.56 2.60 2.60 0.55 0.55 0.59

0.28Afghanistan 0.000.000.000.000.400.28 0.28 0.28 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43 0.40 0.40 0.40

1.97Others 4.460.190.230.014.411.95 2.01 2.01 2.17 2.16 2.19 2.19 4.26 4.22 4.40



Table 06 Oats Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

9.68World 1.930.431.130.2622.849.37 9.75 9.77 2.43 2.39 2.32 2.34 23.51 22.40 22.58

0.41United States 27.580.280.000.001.300.42 0.52 0.52 2.30 2.43 2.52 2.52 0.94 1.02 1.30

9.27Total Foreign 0.710.151.200.2621.548.95 9.23 9.25 2.43 2.39 2.30 2.33 22.57 21.38 21.28

none

2.65European Union -1.66-0.133.710.287.722.54 2.60 2.61 3.16 3.09 2.87 2.96 8.39 7.85 7.44


3.01 Russia -5.07-0.270.000.005.003.08 3.00 3.00 1.64 1.71 1.67 1.67 4.93 5.27 5.00

0.24 Ukraine -38.52-0.24-16.67-0.080.380.25 0.20 0.20 1.94 2.49 2.25 1.88 0.47 0.61 0.45

0.13 Belarus -14.89-0.070.000.000.400.14 0.14 0.14 2.65 3.36 2.86 2.86 0.35 0.47 0.40

0.22 Kazakhstan 10.620.020.000.000.250.19 0.20 0.20 1.39 1.18 1.25 1.25 0.31 0.23 0.25

1.11Canada 12.450.371.210.043.350.93 1.10 1.10 3.51 3.21 3.01 3.05 3.91 2.98 3.31

South America

0.22 Argentina -7.62-0.040.000.000.490.25 0.24 0.24 2.07 2.14 2.06 2.06 0.45 0.53 0.49

0.17 Brazil 0.000.000.000.000.300.15 0.15 0.15 2.24 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.38 0.30 0.30

0.14 Chile 52.000.260.000.000.760.09 0.14 0.14 4.49 5.56 5.51 5.51 0.61 0.50 0.76

0.03 Uruguay 143.480.0333.330.010.060.01 0.03 0.04 1.41 1.64 1.40 1.40 0.04 0.02 0.04

Oceania

0.72 Australia 18.610.200.000.001.300.68 0.80 0.80 1.76 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.26 1.10 1.30

0.01 New Zealand 0.000.000.000.000.040.01 0.01 0.01 5.60 6.00 6.00 6.00 0.03 0.04 0.04

0.20China 0.000.000.000.000.600.20 0.20 0.20 2.90 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.58 0.60 0.60

Africa

0.09 Algeria 0.000.000.000.000.110.09 0.09 0.09 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.05 Morocco 0.000.000.000.000.060.05 0.05 0.05 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.03 South Africa 0.000.000.000.000.060.03 0.03 0.03 2.19 1.83 1.83 1.83 0.06 0.06 0.06

Other Europe

0.07 Norway 0.000.000.000.000.240.07 0.07 0.07 3.10 3.42 3.42 3.42 0.21 0.24 0.24

0.03 Serbia 0.000.000.000.000.070.03 0.03 0.03 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 0.07 0.07 0.07

0.01 Albania 0.000.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 2.15 2.08 2.08 2.08 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.01 Bosnia and Herzegovina 11.110.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 2.80 2.70 2.73 2.73 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.09Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.210.09 0.09 0.09 2.33 2.33 2.33 2.33 0.21 0.21 0.21

0.05Mexico 0.000.000.000.000.090.05 0.05 0.05 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 0.09 0.09 0.09

0.01Others -3.850.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 1.79 1.86 1.79 1.79 0.03 0.03 0.03



Table 07 Rye Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

5.46World -9.02-1.321.650.2213.285.00 4.73 4.73 2.90 2.92 2.76 2.81 15.80 14.59 13.06

0.11United States 59.560.110.000.000.290.10 0.15 0.15 1.72 1.76 2.00 2.00 0.19 0.18 0.29

5.34Total Foreign -9.89-1.431.680.2212.984.90 4.59 4.58 2.92 2.94 2.78 2.83 15.61 14.41 12.77

none

2.58European Union -13.34-1.182.540.197.672.11 1.91 1.91 3.94 4.19 3.91 4.02 10.16 8.85 7.48


1.78 Russia 0.640.020.000.003.301.85 1.80 1.80 1.89 1.77 1.83 1.83 3.36 3.28 3.30

0.32 Belarus -15.79-0.150.000.000.800.34 0.33 0.33 2.01 2.79 2.46 2.46 0.65 0.95 0.80

0.28 Ukraine -21.05-0.107.140.030.380.19 0.15 0.15 2.29 2.57 2.33 2.50 0.64 0.48 0.35

0.04 Kazakhstan -18.03-0.010.000.000.050.04 0.04 0.04 1.10 1.42 1.25 1.25 0.04 0.06 0.05

0.14Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.350.14 0.14 0.14 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.35 0.35 0.35

0.09Canada 5.500.010.000.000.230.09 0.10 0.10 2.56 2.48 2.40 2.40 0.22 0.22 0.23

South America

0.01 Chile 51.060.020.000.000.070.01 0.01 0.01 5.45 4.27 5.92 5.92 0.06 0.05 0.07

0.04 Argentina -42.27-0.040.000.000.060.05 0.04 0.04 1.49 1.90 1.56 1.56 0.05 0.10 0.06

Other Europe

0.00 Bosnia and Herzegovina -11.110.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 2.25 2.67 2.67 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.00 Switzerland 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.00 Serbia 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.04Australia 10.000.000.000.000.020.04 0.04 0.04 0.57 0.57 0.61 0.61 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.03Others 0.000.000.000.000.030.03 0.03 0.03 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.03 0.03 0.03



Table 08 Sorghum Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

39.08World 8.235.20-0.18-0.1268.4142.90 43.44 43.35 1.56 1.47 1.58 1.58 60.99 63.20 68.53

2.67United States 37.274.103.530.5115.082.59 3.09 3.09 3.74 4.24 4.71 4.87 9.97 10.99 14.57

36.42Total Foreign 2.121.11-1.18-0.6453.3240.31 40.35 40.25 1.40 1.30 1.34 1.32 51.02 52.21 53.96

none

Africa

5.00 Nigeria -8.21-0.550.000.006.155.50 5.30 5.30 1.32 1.22 1.16 1.16 6.59 6.70 6.15

1.82 Ethiopia -5.00-0.200.000.003.801.80 1.80 1.80 2.26 2.22 2.11 2.11 4.11 4.00 3.80

4.36 Sudan -12.43-0.780.000.005.508.63 8.00 8.00 0.52 0.73 0.69 0.69 2.25 6.28 5.50

1.80 Burkina 3.490.060.000.001.901.80 1.80 1.80 1.04 1.02 1.06 1.06 1.88 1.84 1.90

0.94 Mali 0.000.000.000.001.301.00 1.00 1.00 0.87 1.30 1.30 1.30 0.82 1.30 1.30

3.10 Niger 10.000.100.000.001.103.00 3.00 3.00 0.42 0.33 0.37 0.37 1.29 1.00 1.10

0.80 Cameroon 0.000.000.000.001.150.80 0.80 0.80 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.15 1.15 1.15

0.71 Tanzania 0.000.000.000.000.840.90 0.90 0.90 1.17 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.83 0.84 0.84

0.14 Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.750.14 0.14 0.14 5.31 5.36 5.36 5.36 0.75 0.75 0.75

0.35 Uganda 6.670.020.000.000.320.35 0.35 0.35 0.85 0.86 0.91 0.91 0.30 0.30 0.32

0.23 Ghana 2.390.010.000.000.300.25 0.25 0.25 1.11 1.17 1.20 1.20 0.25 0.29 0.30

0.63 Mozambique 44.440.100.000.000.330.62 0.62 0.62 0.30 0.36 0.52 0.52 0.19 0.23 0.33

0.08 South Africa 83.760.107.500.020.220.07 0.07 0.08 3.35 1.65 2.86 2.87 0.27 0.12 0.20

2.07Mexico 14.040.88-8.33-0.657.151.72 1.90 1.80 4.10 3.66 4.11 3.97 8.50 6.27 7.80

South America

1.00 Argentina 28.571.000.000.004.500.77 1.00 1.00 4.40 4.55 4.50 4.50 4.40 3.50 4.50

0.73 Brazil 0.000.000.000.002.000.73 0.73 0.73 2.59 2.74 2.74 2.74 1.89 2.00 2.00

South Asia

5.79 India 8.910.450.000.005.505.50 6.00 6.00 0.96 0.92 0.92 0.92 5.54 5.05 5.50

0.24 Pakistan 0.000.000.000.000.150.24 0.24 0.24 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.15 0.15 0.15

0.65China 0.000.000.000.002.600.61 0.61 0.61 4.15 4.26 4.26 4.26 2.70 2.60 2.60

0.53Australia -0.190.000.000.002.100.65 0.70 0.70 2.41 3.23 3.00 3.00 1.28 2.10 2.10

0.14European Union -14.92-0.130.000.000.750.15 0.14 0.14 5.21 6.01 5.19 5.19 0.70 0.88 0.75

5.32Others 1.130.060.000.004.935.09 4.99 4.99 0.97 0.96 0.99 0.99 5.18 4.88 4.93




Table 09 Rice Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

161.72World -1.00-4.79-0.11-0.53473.50159.96 159.17 159.17 4.41 4.46 4.44 4.43 478.44 478.29 474.02

1.00United States -14.30-1.011.580.096.061.18 1.04 1.04 8.62 8.49 8.19 8.32 6.12 7.07 5.96

160.73Total Foreign -0.80-3.78-0.13-0.62467.44158.78 158.13 158.13 4.39 4.43 4.42 4.41 472.32 471.22 468.06

none

East Asia

30.31 China 0.691.000.000.00145.5030.31 30.35 30.35 6.72 6.81 6.85 6.85 142.53 144.50 145.50

1.62 Japan 0.740.060.000.007.901.61 1.61 1.61 6.73 6.70 6.74 6.74 7.94 7.84 7.90

0.83 Korea, South 0.400.026.450.264.260.82 0.80 0.80 6.76 6.91 6.66 7.09 4.23 4.24 4.00

0.57 Korea, North -5.88-0.100.000.001.600.57 0.53 0.53 5.07 4.63 4.69 4.69 1.88 1.70 1.60

South Asia

44.14 India -1.24-1.300.000.00103.5043.00 43.20 43.20 3.62 3.66 3.59 3.59 106.65 104.80 103.50

11.75 Bangladesh 0.290.10-1.14-0.4034.6011.79 12.00 12.00 4.39 4.39 4.38 4.33 34.39 34.50 35.00

2.78 Pakistan 0.000.000.000.006.902.85 2.85 2.85 3.62 3.63 3.63 3.63 6.70 6.90 6.90

1.50 Nepal 0.000.000.000.003.101.56 1.56 1.56 3.37 2.98 2.98 2.98 3.36 3.10 3.10

1.15 Sri Lanka 15.790.4510.000.303.301.15 1.15 1.23 3.63 3.64 3.84 3.96 2.84 2.85 3.00

Southeast Asia

12.10 Indonesia 1.510.540.000.0036.3011.90 12.16 12.16 4.72 4.73 4.70 4.70 36.30 35.76 36.30

7.79 Vietnam 0.450.130.000.0028.207.69 7.66 7.66 5.79 5.84 5.89 5.89 28.16 28.07 28.20

10.92 Thailand -12.53-2.350.000.0016.4010.27 9.65 9.65 2.84 2.77 2.57 2.57 20.46 18.75 16.40

7.05 Burma -3.17-0.400.000.0012.207.03 6.80 6.80 2.65 2.80 2.80 2.80 11.96 12.60 12.20

4.80 Philippines -3.48-0.42-4.17-0.5011.504.71 4.70 4.50 3.92 4.02 4.05 4.06 11.86 11.92 12.00

2.97 Cambodia -7.45-0.35-7.45-0.354.353.03 2.95 2.90 2.49 2.43 2.49 2.34 4.73 4.70 4.70

0.89 Laos -6.67-0.130.000.001.750.96 0.93 0.93 2.94 3.11 3.00 3.00 1.65 1.88 1.75

0.69 Malaysia 0.560.010.000.001.810.69 0.69 0.69 3.91 4.02 4.04 4.04 1.76 1.80 1.81

South America

2.40 Brazil -5.49-0.470.000.008.002.30 2.30 2.30 5.09 5.42 5.12 5.12 8.30 8.47 8.00

0.41 Peru 0.140.000.000.002.150.40 0.40 0.40 7.72 7.79 7.80 7.80 2.16 2.15 2.15

Africa

0.77 Egypt -11.70-0.530.000.004.000.65 0.66 0.80 8.94 10.10 8.78 7.25 4.75 4.53 4.00

1.30 Madagascar 3.060.080.000.002.621.45 1.45 1.45 2.78 2.74 2.83 2.83 2.31 2.55 2.62

2.50 Nigeria -4.44-0.130.000.002.712.70 2.40 2.40 1.76 1.67 1.79 1.79 2.77 2.84 2.71

0.43European Union 2.600.050.000.001.930.43 0.42 0.42 6.45 6.37 6.58 6.58 1.94 1.88 1.93

0.59Iran 3.850.071.890.031.780.60 0.61 0.63 4.24 4.33 4.34 4.32 1.65 1.72 1.75

10.47Others -0.53-0.110.190.0421.0810.34 10.31 10.32 3.05 3.11 3.10 3.10 21.07 21.19 21.04

Yield is on a rough basis, before the milling process. Production is on a milled basis, after the milling process.



Table 10 Total Oilseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

--World Total -0.96-5.13-0.01-0.07530.95-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 505.45 536.08 531.02

--Total Foreign -1.63-6.84-0.61-2.54413.21-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 406.43 420.06 415.75

--Oilseed, Copra 1.360.070.000.005.51-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 5.43 5.43 5.51

--Oilseed, Palm Kernel 4.970.81-0.11-0.0217.09-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 15.74 16.29 17.11

none

230.55Major OilSeeds -1.17-6.02-0.01-0.06508.35233.70 234.34 233.17 2.10 2.20 2.17 2.18 484.28 514.36 508.41

35.44United States 1.481.712.142.47117.7438.98 38.72 38.71 2.79 2.98 2.98 3.04 99.02 116.03 115.27

none

195.11Foreign Oilseeds -1.94-7.73-0.64-2.52390.61194.72 195.61 194.45 1.97 2.05 2.01 2.01 385.27 398.34 393.13

59.15South America 0.350.64-0.44-0.79180.0361.08 63.49 63.01 2.73 2.94 2.85 0.00 161.51 179.39 180.82

31.47 Brazil 3.663.620.000.00102.7133.35 34.46 34.46 2.86 2.97 2.98 0.00 89.92 99.09 102.71

21.64 Argentina -6.43-4.21-0.65-0.4061.3121.56 22.41 22.21 2.63 3.04 2.75 0.00 56.92 65.52 61.71

3.36 Paraguay 8.650.710.000.008.973.35 3.52 3.52 2.47 2.46 2.55 0.00 8.32 8.26 8.97

1.18 Bolivia 16.780.500.000.003.451.28 1.50 1.50 2.26 2.30 2.30 0.00 2.67 2.95 3.45

1.34 Uruguay 0.440.01-10.96-0.393.171.36 1.44 1.16 2.49 2.31 2.47 0.00 3.34 3.15 3.56

24.74China -5.48-3.16-0.22-0.1254.4024.32 22.90 22.82 2.38 2.37 2.38 0.00 58.89 57.56 54.52

40.82South Asia 0.470.18-5.29-2.1638.6839.09 39.37 39.03 1.00 0.98 1.04 0.00 40.93 38.50 40.84

37.18 India 2.840.94-4.22-1.5034.0735.36 35.45 35.45 0.97 0.94 1.00 0.00 36.07 33.13 35.57

3.37 Pakistan -14.88-0.76-13.18-0.664.353.46 3.65 3.31 1.36 1.48 1.37 0.00 4.59 5.11 5.01

12.17European Union -11.10-3.97-0.60-0.1931.7511.96 11.79 11.73 2.63 2.99 2.71 0.00 32.05 35.72 31.94

20.76Former Soviet Union - 12 -1.79-0.60-0.30-0.1033.1421.22 20.81 20.74 1.68 1.59 1.60 0.00 34.89 33.75 33.24

9.11 Russia 1.630.21-0.75-0.1013.209.34 9.45 9.38 1.49 1.39 1.41 0.00 13.58 12.99 13.30

7.65 Ukraine 0.000.000.000.0016.307.98 7.88 7.88 2.19 2.04 2.07 0.00 16.73 16.30 16.30

1.30 Uzbekistan -5.10-0.080.000.001.451.29 1.29 1.29 1.24 1.19 1.13 0.00 1.61 1.53 1.45

10.05Canada -4.31-0.975.901.2021.5410.61 10.15 10.15 2.38 2.12 2.00 0.00 23.96 22.51 20.34

18.08Africa 6.070.96-1.14-0.1916.7717.39 18.37 18.26 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.00 16.70 15.81 16.96

3.44 Nigeria 0.590.020.000.003.763.37 3.39 3.39 1.10 1.11 1.11 0.00 3.76 3.74 3.76

1.17 South Africa 11.930.22-7.44-0.172.051.34 1.47 1.38 1.63 1.37 1.51 0.00 1.90 1.84 2.22

1.29 Tanzania -1.92-0.020.000.000.921.24 1.24 1.24 0.82 0.75 0.74 0.00 1.07 0.94 0.92

3.46Southeast Asia -0.61-0.030.000.004.903.39 3.36 3.36 1.41 1.46 1.46 0.00 4.89 4.93 4.90

1.11 Indonesia -1.14-0.020.000.001.741.07 1.05 1.05 1.64 1.65 1.65 0.00 1.82 1.76 1.74

1.92 Burma -0.84-0.020.000.002.381.89 1.88 1.88 1.20 1.27 1.27 0.00 2.31 2.40 2.38

3.22Australia -5.65-0.24-3.16-0.133.992.98 2.81 2.81 1.81 1.42 1.47 0.00 5.82 4.23 4.12

1.13Turkey -15.18-0.390.000.002.181.07 0.97 0.97 2.20 2.40 2.25 0.00 2.49 2.57 2.18

1.54Others -4.41-0.15-1.04-0.033.231.62 1.59 1.57 2.04 2.09 2.05 2.06 3.15 3.38 3.26

World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and

rapeseed)


Table 11 Soybean Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

113.09World 0.732.340.160.52321.02118.13 121.40 120.99 2.50 2.70 2.64 2.65 283.15 318.68 320.49

30.86United States 1.381.482.412.55108.3533.42 33.36 33.36 2.96 3.20 3.17 3.25 91.39 106.88 105.81

82.23Total Foreign 0.410.86-0.94-2.03212.6684.71 88.04 87.63 2.33 2.50 2.44 2.43 191.76 211.80 214.69

none

South America

30.10 Brazil 3.953.800.000.00100.0032.10 33.30 33.30 2.88 3.00 3.00 3.00 86.70 96.20 100.00

19.40 Argentina -6.25-3.800.000.0057.0019.30 20.00 20.00 2.76 3.15 2.85 2.85 53.50 60.80 57.00

3.26 Paraguay 8.640.700.000.008.803.24 3.40 3.40 2.52 2.50 2.59 2.59 8.19 8.10 8.80

1.00 Bolivia 16.980.450.000.003.101.08 1.28 1.28 2.40 2.45 2.42 2.42 2.40 2.65 3.10

1.31 Uruguay 0.030.00-11.14-0.393.111.33 1.40 1.12 2.52 2.33 2.50 2.78 3.30 3.11 3.50

East Asia

6.85 China -6.88-0.850.000.0011.506.80 6.40 6.40 1.78 1.82 1.80 1.80 12.20 12.35 11.50

0.08 Korea, South -13.67-0.020.000.000.120.08 0.07 0.07 1.93 1.85 1.71 1.71 0.15 0.14 0.12

0.12 Korea, North -9.09-0.020.000.000.150.12 0.11 0.11 1.41 1.40 1.36 1.36 0.16 0.17 0.15

0.13 Japan -2.65-0.010.000.000.220.13 0.13 0.13 1.55 1.71 1.69 1.69 0.20 0.23 0.22

12.20India 5.560.50-13.64-1.509.5010.91 11.65 11.65 0.78 0.83 0.94 0.82 9.50 9.00 11.00

1.86Canada -1.64-0.100.000.005.952.24 2.20 2.20 2.88 2.71 2.70 2.70 5.36 6.05 5.95


1.20 Russia 4.050.110.000.002.701.91 2.00 2.00 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.64 2.60 2.70

1.35 Ukraine -7.69-0.300.000.003.601.80 2.10 2.10 2.05 2.17 1.71 1.71 2.77 3.90 3.60

0.47European Union 13.260.241.230.032.050.57 0.77 0.73 2.57 3.16 2.64 2.80 1.21 1.81 2.03

Southeast Asia

0.45 Indonesia 0.000.000.000.000.600.43 0.43 0.43 1.44 1.40 1.40 1.40 0.65 0.60 0.60

0.11 Vietnam 0.570.000.000.000.180.12 0.12 0.12 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.46 0.16 0.17 0.18

0.04 Thailand -5.660.000.000.000.050.03 0.03 0.03 1.60 1.71 1.67 1.67 0.06 0.05 0.05

0.17 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.200.17 0.17 0.17 1.23 1.21 1.21 1.21 0.21 0.20 0.20

0.18Mexico 1.410.010.000.000.360.19 0.20 0.20 1.35 1.84 1.85 1.85 0.24 0.36 0.36

0.08Iran 0.000.000.000.000.200.08 0.08 0.08 2.45 2.44 2.44 2.44 0.19 0.20 0.20

Africa

0.50 South Africa 7.550.08-12.31-0.161.140.69 0.80 0.70 1.88 1.54 1.63 1.63 0.95 1.06 1.30

0.65 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.650.65 0.65 0.65 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.65 0.65 0.65

0.11 Zambia 0.000.000.000.000.210.11 0.11 0.11 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 0.21 0.21 0.21

0.16 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.190.16 0.16 0.16 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 0.19 0.19 0.19

Middle East

0.08 Iran 0.000.000.000.000.200.08 0.08 0.08 2.45 2.44 2.44 2.44 0.19 0.20 0.20

0.04 Turkey -33.33-0.050.000.000.090.04 0.03 0.03 3.71 3.86 3.60 3.60 0.13 0.14 0.09

0.35Others 16.740.120.000.000.800.36 0.39 0.39 1.88 1.91 2.08 2.08 0.65 0.69 0.80



Table 12 Cottonseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

31.82World -10.27-4.55-1.23-0.5039.7732.96 30.40 30.27 1.44 1.34 1.32 1.31 45.68 44.32 40.26

3.05United States -16.93-0.79-0.39-0.023.863.78 3.31 3.30 1.25 1.23 1.17 1.17 3.81 4.65 3.88

28.76Total Foreign -9.49-3.76-1.32-0.4835.9029.18 27.09 26.98 1.46 1.36 1.34 1.33 41.87 39.67 36.39

none

South Asia

11.70 India -1.60-0.200.000.0012.3012.70 11.80 11.80 1.11 0.98 1.04 1.04 12.95 12.50 12.30

2.90 Pakistan -15.22-0.70-4.88-0.203.902.95 2.85 2.85 1.41 1.56 1.44 1.37 4.10 4.60 4.10

4.80China -16.65-1.96-1.23-0.129.804.40 3.58 3.50 2.67 2.67 2.78 2.80 12.84 11.76 9.92


1.30 Uzbekistan -5.10-0.080.000.001.451.29 1.29 1.29 1.24 1.19 1.13 1.13 1.61 1.53 1.45

0.58 Turkmenistan 0.000.000.000.000.600.55 0.55 0.55 1.06 1.10 1.09 1.09 0.61 0.60 0.60

0.19 Tajikistan -16.56-0.030.000.000.130.18 0.15 0.15 0.92 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.18 0.16 0.13

0.14 Kazakhstan 4.260.000.000.000.100.13 0.10 0.10 0.96 0.73 0.99 0.99 0.13 0.09 0.10

South America

1.12 Brazil -6.78-0.160.000.002.201.02 0.93 0.93 2.38 2.31 2.38 2.38 2.67 2.36 2.20

0.56 Argentina -9.33-0.040.000.000.340.48 0.45 0.45 0.75 0.78 0.76 0.76 0.42 0.38 0.34

Middle East

0.33 Turkey -14.56-0.150.000.000.880.43 0.38 0.38 2.24 2.40 2.32 2.32 0.74 1.03 0.88

0.11 Syria -7.22-0.010.000.000.090.06 0.05 0.05 2.51 1.62 1.80 1.80 0.28 0.10 0.09

0.10 Iran 2.080.000.000.000.100.11 0.11 0.11 0.90 0.87 0.89 0.89 0.09 0.10 0.10

0.44Australia -8.58-0.06-4.41-0.030.650.21 0.23 0.23 4.31 3.47 3.02 2.89 1.88 0.71 0.68

0.31European Union -23.52-0.12-14.16-0.070.400.36 0.32 0.32 1.54 1.47 1.47 1.27 0.48 0.52 0.47

Africa

0.65 Burkina -10.99-0.040.000.000.330.66 0.63 0.63 0.53 0.57 0.53 0.53 0.35 0.37 0.33

0.45 Mali 5.420.02-8.53-0.030.310.54 0.60 0.58 0.54 0.55 0.57 0.54 0.24 0.30 0.34

0.22 Cameroon -10.57-0.030.000.000.240.23 0.22 0.22 1.14 1.15 1.08 1.08 0.25 0.27 0.24

0.45 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.230.41 0.44 0.44 0.47 0.55 0.52 0.52 0.21 0.23 0.23

0.27 Benin -6.93-0.020.000.000.220.32 0.31 0.31 0.70 0.73 0.69 0.69 0.19 0.23 0.22

0.35 Tanzania -13.24-0.020.000.000.120.40 0.40 0.40 0.47 0.34 0.30 0.30 0.17 0.14 0.12

0.13 Egypt -35.00-0.060.000.000.100.16 0.10 0.10 1.02 1.02 1.04 1.04 0.13 0.16 0.10

0.29 Nigeria 25.580.020.000.000.110.22 0.24 0.24 0.40 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.11 0.09 0.11

0.05 Uganda -3.810.000.000.000.100.06 0.06 0.06 1.22 1.75 1.68 1.68 0.06 0.11 0.10

0.26 Zimbabwe 20.630.010.000.000.080.18 0.18 0.18 0.39 0.35 0.42 0.42 0.10 0.06 0.08

0.06 Sudan 56.060.040.000.000.100.07 0.11 0.11 1.34 0.99 0.94 0.94 0.08 0.07 0.10

0.12Mexico -30.39-0.14-9.52-0.030.320.18 0.15 0.13 2.58 2.56 2.41 2.48 0.32 0.46 0.36

0.30Burma -5.41-0.020.000.000.350.30 0.29 0.29 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 0.37 0.37 0.35

0.61Others -9.27-0.040.000.000.360.62 0.61 0.61 0.54 0.64 0.60 0.60 0.33 0.40 0.36



Table 13 Peanut Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

25.27World 3.311.31-0.24-0.1040.7923.64 24.41 24.40 1.63 1.67 1.67 1.67 41.15 39.48 40.89

0.42United States 18.950.45-2.37-0.072.800.54 0.64 0.64 4.49 4.40 4.48 4.40 1.89 2.35 2.87

24.84Total Foreign 2.320.86-0.08-0.0337.9923.10 23.77 23.76 1.58 1.61 1.60 1.60 39.26 37.13 38.02

none

4.63China 1.210.200.000.0016.704.70 4.60 4.60 3.66 3.51 3.63 3.63 16.97 16.50 16.70

Africa

2.50 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.003.002.50 2.50 2.50 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 3.00 3.00 3.00

2.16 Sudan 94.290.910.000.001.871.25 2.18 2.18 0.82 0.77 0.86 0.86 1.77 0.96 1.87

0.77 Senegal 0.000.000.000.000.730.77 0.77 0.77 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.71 0.73 0.73

0.46 Cameroon -14.06-0.090.000.000.550.47 0.40 0.40 1.37 1.36 1.38 1.38 0.64 0.64 0.55

0.33 Ghana 0.000.000.000.000.440.40 0.40 0.40 1.24 1.10 1.10 1.10 0.41 0.44 0.44

0.50 Chad 0.000.000.000.000.400.50 0.50 0.50 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.40 0.40 0.40

0.36 Malawi 0.000.000.000.000.380.37 0.37 0.37 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.38 0.38 0.38

0.48 Congo (Kinshasa) 0.000.000.000.000.370.48 0.48 0.48 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.37 0.37 0.37

0.78 Niger 0.000.000.000.000.350.74 0.74 0.74 0.44 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.34 0.35 0.35

0.37 Mali 0.000.000.000.000.330.38 0.38 0.38 1.38 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.52 0.33 0.33

0.42 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.300.43 0.43 0.43 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.30 0.30 0.30

0.45 Burkina 0.000.000.000.000.350.45 0.45 0.45 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.35 0.35 0.35

0.21 Guinea 0.000.000.000.000.260.21 0.21 0.21 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 0.26 0.26 0.26

0.06 Egypt 0.500.000.000.000.200.06 0.06 0.06 3.16 3.16 3.33 3.33 0.20 0.20 0.20

0.10 Central African Republic 0.000.000.000.000.150.10 0.10 0.10 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.15 0.15 0.15

0.05 South Africa 13.330.01-26.09-0.030.090.06 0.06 0.05 1.90 1.29 1.92 1.89 0.10 0.08 0.12

0.29 Mozambique 0.000.000.000.000.110.29 0.29 0.29 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.08 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.090.08 0.08 0.08 1.19 1.13 1.13 1.13 0.10 0.09 0.09

0.15 Benin 0.000.000.000.000.140.16 0.16 0.16 0.87 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.13 0.14 0.14

South Asia

5.40 India -4.08-0.200.000.004.704.60 4.50 4.50 1.05 1.07 1.04 1.04 5.65 4.90 4.70

0.09 Pakistan 11.760.010.000.000.100.10 0.11 0.11 1.07 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.10 0.09 0.10

Southeast Asia

0.66 Indonesia -1.74-0.020.000.001.130.63 0.62 0.62 1.77 1.83 1.84 1.84 1.16 1.15 1.13

0.89 Burma 0.000.000.000.001.380.89 0.89 0.89 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.38 1.38 1.38

0.21 Vietnam 2.540.010.000.000.490.22 0.22 0.22 2.18 2.20 2.20 2.20 0.46 0.47 0.49

0.03 Thailand 0.000.000.000.000.050.03 0.03 0.03 1.47 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.05 0.05 0.05

South America

0.38 Argentina -1.52-0.020.000.001.170.34 0.36 0.36 2.64 3.48 3.25 3.25 1.00 1.19 1.17

0.11 Brazil -4.62-0.020.000.000.330.11 0.11 0.11 3.00 3.15 3.00 3.00 0.32 0.35 0.33

0.06Mexico 3.960.000.000.000.110.06 0.06 0.06 1.75 1.74 1.75 1.75 0.10 0.10 0.11

1.86Others 3.580.060.000.001.771.76 1.75 1.75 1.00 0.97 1.01 1.01 1.86 1.71 1.77



Table 14 Sunflowerseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

24.14World -0.75-0.30-2.08-0.8539.6923.15 23.27 22.89 1.75 1.73 1.74 1.73 42.35 39.99 40.53

0.59United States 31.240.310.000.001.320.61 0.72 0.72 1.55 1.65 1.83 1.83 0.92 1.01 1.32

23.55Total Foreign -1.58-0.61-2.15-0.8538.3722.54 22.55 22.17 1.76 1.73 1.74 1.73 41.43 38.98 39.21

none


6.80 Russia 5.270.470.000.009.406.37 6.50 6.50 1.55 1.40 1.45 1.45 10.55 8.93 9.40

5.30 Ukraine 7.840.800.000.0011.005.30 5.10 5.10 2.19 1.92 2.16 2.16 11.60 10.20 11.00

0.82 Kazakhstan -12.28-0.060.000.000.450.77 0.68 0.68 0.70 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.57 0.51 0.45

4.62European Union -13.23-1.18-1.90-0.157.754.28 4.16 4.15 1.96 2.09 1.90 1.87 9.05 8.93 7.90

South America

1.30 Argentina -11.39-0.36-12.50-0.402.801.44 1.60 1.40 1.54 2.19 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.16 3.20

0.03 Uruguay 29.550.010.000.000.060.03 0.04 0.04 1.40 1.47 1.50 1.50 0.04 0.04 0.06

0.18 Bolivia 15.000.050.000.000.350.20 0.22 0.22 1.50 1.50 1.60 1.60 0.27 0.30 0.35

0.15 Brazil 0.000.000.000.000.180.12 0.12 0.12 1.59 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.23 0.18 0.18

0.04 Paraguay 8.570.010.000.000.110.06 0.07 0.07 1.51 1.69 1.75 1.75 0.06 0.11 0.11

0.92China -2.13-0.050.000.002.300.92 0.92 0.92 2.63 2.55 2.50 2.50 2.42 2.35 2.30

South Asia

0.75 India 0.000.000.000.000.420.55 0.50 0.50 0.89 0.76 0.84 0.84 0.67 0.42 0.42

0.16 Pakistan -5.00-0.01-62.75-0.320.190.16 0.34 0.15 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.27 0.20 0.20 0.51

Middle East

0.69 Turkey -16.67-0.200.000.001.000.53 0.49 0.49 2.03 2.26 2.04 2.04 1.40 1.20 1.00

0.07 Iran 0.000.000.000.000.090.07 0.07 0.07 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 0.09 0.09 0.09

0.01 Israel 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 1.20 1.60 1.60 1.60 0.01 0.02 0.02

Africa

0.01 Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 2.67 2.43 2.43 2.43 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 Morocco 0.000.000.000.000.020.02 0.02 0.02 1.12 1.25 1.25 1.25 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.60 South Africa 21.030.143.230.030.800.58 0.59 0.62 1.39 1.15 1.31 1.30 0.83 0.66 0.78

0.57Burma 0.000.000.000.000.450.54 0.54 0.54 0.63 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.36 0.45 0.45

0.03Canada 70.910.040.000.000.090.03 0.05 0.05 1.86 1.90 1.96 1.96 0.05 0.06 0.09

0.03Australia 50.000.020.000.000.050.02 0.04 0.04 1.19 1.25 1.25 1.25 0.03 0.03 0.05

0.47Others -25.20-0.280.000.000.830.53 0.51 0.51 2.01 2.08 1.63 1.63 0.95 1.11 0.83



Table 15 Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Nov 2013/14 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

36.23World -6.69-4.811.300.8667.0935.82 34.86 34.62 1.99 2.01 1.90 1.94 71.96 71.90 66.23

0.51United States 23.070.260.000.001.400.63 0.70 0.70 1.96 1.81 2.01 2.01 1.00 1.14 1.40

35.72Total Foreign -7.17-5.071.330.8665.6935.19 34.16 33.92 1.99 2.01 1.90 1.94 70.95 70.76 64.83

none

6.77European Union -11.86-2.900.000.0021.556.76 6.55 6.54 3.15 3.62 3.29 3.30 21.30 24.45 21.55

8.16Canada -5.55-0.918.391.2015.508.34 7.90 7.90 2.27 1.97 1.81 1.96 18.55 16.41 14.30

7.53China -3.42-0.500.000.0014.107.50 7.40 7.40 1.92 1.95 1.91 1.91 14.46 14.60 14.10

South Asia

7.13 India 13.310.840.000.007.156.60 7.00 7.00 1.02 0.96 1.02 1.02 7.30 6.31 7.15

0.21 Pakistan -27.27-0.06-46.67-0.140.160.25 0.35 0.20 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.80 0.19 0.22 0.30

0.25 Bangladesh 0.000.000.000.000.230.25 0.25 0.25 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.23 0.23 0.23


1.11 Russia -24.86-0.36-8.33-0.101.101.06 0.95 0.88 1.26 1.38 1.26 1.26 1.39 1.46 1.20

1.00 Ukraine -22.73-0.500.000.001.700.88 0.68 0.68 2.36 2.50 2.52 2.52 2.35 2.20 1.70

0.40 Belarus -58.90-0.430.000.000.300.40 0.17 0.17 1.68 1.82 1.82 1.82 0.68 0.73 0.30

0.25 Kazakhstan -6.64-0.020.000.000.230.24 0.23 0.23 0.95 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.24 0.24 0.23

2.72Australia -6.24-0.21-3.03-0.103.202.71 2.50 2.50 1.41 1.26 1.32 1.28 3.83 3.41 3.30

South America

0.04 Chile -0.500.000.000.000.200.05 0.05 0.05 3.68 4.10 4.00 4.00 0.14 0.20 0.20

0.05 Paraguay 12.200.010.000.000.050.03 0.04 0.04 1.15 1.28 1.31 1.31 0.05 0.04 0.05

0.02Switzerland 0.000.000.000.000.070.02 0.02 0.02 3.32 3.14 3.14 3.14 0.07 0.07 0.07

0.05Ethiopia 3.900.000.000.000.080.05 0.05 0.05 1.45 1.60 1.60 1.60 0.07 0.08 0.08

0.04Others -25.00-0.030.000.000.080.05 0.04 0.04 2.26 2.13 2.08 2.08 0.10 0.10 0.08



Table 16 Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Production

Country / Region

Production


2013/14

Prel.

2014/15

2015/16 Proj.

Oct Nov MMT Percent MMT Percent



Oilseed, Copra

0.00 0.00 0.07 3.14 Philippines 2.28 2.302.302.23

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Indonesia 1.58 1.601.601.60

0.00 0.00 0.01 1.41 India 0.71 0.720.720.71

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Vietnam 0.24 0.240.240.24

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mexico 0.20 0.210.210.21

0.00 0.00 -0.01 -10.00 Papua New Guinea 0.08 0.090.090.10

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Thailand 0.07 0.070.070.07

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sri Lanka 0.07 0.070.070.07

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Solomon Islands 0.03 0.030.030.03

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cote d'Ivoire 0.03 0.030.030.03

0.00 0.00 0.08 1.47 World 5.43 5.515.515.43

Oilseed, Palm Kernel

0.00 0.00 0.50 5.75 Indonesia 8.10 9.209.208.70

0.00 0.00 0.20 3.96 Malaysia 5.10 5.255.255.05

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.73 0.730.730.73

0.00 0.00 0.08 22.22 Thailand 0.40 0.440.440.36

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Colombia 0.23 0.250.250.24

0.00 0.00 0.01 8.33 Papua New Guinea 0.13 0.130.130.13

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cameroon 0.11 0.110.110.11

0.00 0.00 0.01 9.09 Honduras 0.10 0.120.120.11

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ghana 0.11 0.110.110.11

-0.02 -16.67 0.00 0.00 Ecuador 0.10 0.100.120.10

-0.02 -0.12 0.81 4.98 World 15.74 17.0917.1116.29

Oil, Palm

0.00 0.00 2.00 6.06 Indonesia 30.50 35.0035.0033.00

0.00 0.00 1.12 5.63 Malaysia 20.16 21.0021.0019.88

0.00 0.00 0.40 22.22 Thailand 2.00 2.202.201.80

0.00 0.00 0.02 1.80 Colombia 1.04 1.131.131.11

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.97 0.970.970.97

0.00 0.00 0.02 4.00 Papua New Guinea 0.50 0.520.520.50

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ghana 0.49 0.500.500.50

-0.09 -15.00 0.03 6.25 Ecuador 0.49 0.510.600.49

0.00 0.00 0.02 4.26 Honduras 0.45 0.490.490.47

0.00 0.00 0.02 4.55 Guatemala 0.42 0.460.460.44

-0.09 -0.14 3.66 5.96 World 59.32 65.1165.2061.44



Table 17 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production


MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Nov 2013/14 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)


2013/14

Prel.

2014/15 Oct Oct

Prel.

2014/15 Nov

Prel.


2015/16 Proj.2015/16 Proj. 2015/16 Proj.

2013/14

32.71World -11.17-13.29-1.64-1.76105.6333.83 31.23 31.09 801 765 749 740 120.41 118.91 107.38

3.05United States -18.62-3.04-0.43-0.0613.283.78 3.31 3.30 921 939 879 877 12.91 16.32 13.34

29.66Total Foreign -9.99-10.25-1.81-1.7092.3530.05 27.92 27.80 789 743 733 723 107.50 102.59 94.05

none

South Asia

11.70 India -3.39-1.00-1.72-0.5028.5012.70 11.80 11.80 577 506 535 526 31.00 29.50 29.00

2.90 Pakistan -15.09-1.60-5.26-0.509.002.95 2.85 2.85 713 782 726 688 9.50 10.60 9.50

4.80China -16.67-5.00-1.19-0.3025.004.40 3.58 3.50 1,486 1,484 1,541 1,555 32.75 30.00 25.30

South America

1.12 Brazil -7.14-0.500.000.006.501.02 0.93 0.93 1,555 1,494 1,530 1,530 8.00 7.00 6.50

0.56 Argentina -9.09-0.100.000.001.000.48 0.45 0.45 474 499 484 484 1.22 1.10 1.00

0.02 Paraguay 9.380.000.000.000.040.02 0.02 0.02 381 348 381 381 0.04 0.03 0.04

Africa

0.65 Burkina -11.11-0.150.000.001.200.66 0.63 0.63 421 445 418 418 1.25 1.35 1.20

0.45 Mali 5.570.06-8.33-0.101.100.54 0.60 0.58 411 422 435 413 0.85 1.04 1.20

0.45 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.860.41 0.44 0.44 382 450 423 423 0.78 0.86 0.86

0.27 Benin -7.14-0.050.000.000.650.32 0.31 0.31 464 484 457 457 0.58 0.70 0.65

0.13 Egypt -35.24-0.190.000.000.340.16 0.10 0.10 729 728 740 740 0.44 0.53 0.34

0.22 Cameroon -10.38-0.060.000.000.480.23 0.22 0.22 495 502 470 470 0.50 0.53 0.48

0.35 Tanzania -13.18-0.040.000.000.270.40 0.40 0.40 235 169 147 147 0.38 0.31 0.27

0.29 Nigeria 25.000.050.000.000.250.22 0.24 0.24 199 203 227 227 0.26 0.20 0.25

0.26 Zimbabwe 21.210.040.000.000.200.18 0.18 0.18 224 200 242 242 0.26 0.17 0.20

0.12 Ethiopia 2.170.000.000.000.190.13 0.13 0.13 308 308 315 315 0.17 0.18 0.19


1.30 Uzbekistan -5.13-0.200.000.003.701.29 1.29 1.29 687 661 627 627 4.10 3.90 3.70

0.58 Turkmenistan 0.000.000.000.001.530.55 0.55 0.55 587 609 604 604 1.55 1.53 1.53

0.19 Tajikistan -16.25-0.070.000.000.340.18 0.15 0.15 516 498 486 486 0.45 0.40 0.34

0.14 Kazakhstan 4.170.010.000.000.250.13 0.10 0.10 536 408 550 550 0.34 0.24 0.25

Middle East

0.33 Turkey -12.50-0.400.000.002.800.43 0.38 0.38 1,517 1,620 1,604 1,604 2.30 3.20 2.80

0.10 Syria -8.33-0.030.000.000.280.06 0.05 0.05 1,306 1,089 1,197 1,197 0.60 0.30 0.28

0.12 Iran 0.000.000.000.000.300.11 0.11 0.11 606 594 594 594 0.32 0.30 0.30

0.44Australia -8.70-0.200.000.002.100.21 0.23 0.23 2,047 2,443 2,032 2,032 4.10 2.30 2.10

0.12Mexico -30.45-0.42-9.52-0.100.950.18 0.15 0.13 1,652 1,643 1,545 1,591 0.93 1.37 1.05

0.30Burma -5.03-0.050.000.000.850.30 0.29 0.29 646 650 649 649 0.89 0.90 0.85

1.78Others -9.25-0.38-5.16-0.203.701.82 1.78 1.76 483 488 478 457 3.95 4.07 3.90



TABLE 18

The table below presents a record of the differences between the November projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error” means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent. The average difference between the November projection and the final estimate is 5.5 million tons, ranging from 0.1 million to 18.1 million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 25 times and above 9 times.

RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/

COMMODITY AND REGION

Root mean square error

90 percent confidence

interval

Difference between forecast and final estimate

Average Smallest Largest

Years Below final

Above final

Percent ---Million metric tons---

WHEAT

World 1.2 2.1 5.5 0.1 18.1 25 9

U.S. 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 16 11

Foreign 1.4 2.4 5.5 0.0 18.2 25 9

COARSE GRAINS 2/

World 1.5 2.6 11.8 0.2 29.0 27 7

U.S. 1.4 2.3 2.4 0.0 7.5 18 16

Foreign 2.1 3.6 11.8 0.2 28.2 27 7

RICE (Milled)

World 2.2 3.7 5.9 0.1 16.8 29 5

U.S. 2.9 5.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 17 15

Foreign 2.2 3.8 5.9 0.2 16.9 29 5

SOYBEANS

World 4.1 6.9 5.5 0.1 25.1 21 13

U.S. 2.2 3.7 1.1 0.1 4.2 15 19

Foreign 6.8 11.5 5.5 0.0 26.4 19 15

COTTON ---Million 480-lb. bales---

World 3.3 5.7 2.4 0.1 8.7 22 12

U.S. 2.9 4.9 0.4 0.0 0.9 18 15

Foreign 4.0 6.7 2.3 0.1 8.0 22 12

UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------

CORN 1.4 2.3 89 0 250 18 15

SORGHUM 4.3 7.3 15 1 53 16 18

BARLEY 1.5 2.6 4 0 24 13 10

OATS 1.2 2.0 2 0 18 7 9

1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2014/15. Final for grains, soybeans and cotton is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2013/14, and for 2014/15 last month’s estimate.

2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain

November 2015 Office of Global Analysis, FAS, USDA


united states department of world agricultural production€¦ · 10/11/2015 · of agricultural...

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