united states department of agriculture national ...€¦ · october 2019 crop production % change...

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

October Crop ProductionExecutive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

October 10, 2019

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Citrus Dry Beans

Soybeans Pecans Tobacco

Cotton Sugarbeets

Rice Sugarcane

Peanuts

Sorghum

Alfalfa Hay

Other Hay

Canola

Sunflowers

Contents

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

Tree

Inventory

Limb Count

Objective

Surveys

(Size and

Drop)

Fruit Maturity

Survey Type Field

Observations

Field

ObservationsField

Observations

Laboratory

Tests

Crops Included All All All Oranges,

Grapefruit

Sample Size 247,550.3

acres

3,361 groves 1,984 groves 424 samples

Collection

Period

July 1, 2018 –

July 1, 2019

July 8 –

September 16

September

3 - 25

September

23 - 24

Survey OverviewFlorida Citrus

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

October 2019 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit October Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.33 NA -<0.1

Grapefruit Thou Tons 592 NA +5.0

Tangerines &

MandarinsThou Tons 970 NA -10.8

Lemons Thou Tons 856 NA -11.4

13.0

13.012.4

11.5

12.9

9.39.02

7.63

10.08

9.13

8.24

8.91 8.98

8.27

6.776.35

6.09

5.09

3.88

5.33 5.33

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Million Tons

Orange ProductionUnited States

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Sample Size 10,861 2,905

Collection Period Sept 28 – Oct 4 Sept 24 – Oct 1

Survey Overview

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From


2019 Estimate Season

Planted Area

Corn Mil Ac 89.9 -0.1 +0.9

Soybeans Mil Ac 76.5 -0.3 -14.3

Sorghum Mil Ac 5.26 -0.6 -7.6

Sunflowers Mil Ac 1.36 -1.5 +4.4

Canola Mil Ac 2.04 +1.1 +2.5

Dry Edible Beans Mil Ac 1.31 -1.6 -37.2

Sugarbeets Mil Ac 1.13 +0.4 +2.0

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



Corn

Harvested Mil Ac 81.8 -0.2 +0.1

Yield Bu/Ac 168.4 +0.1 -4.5

Production Bil Bu 13.8 -0.1 -4.4

9.43 9.92 9.50

8.97

10.1

11.8

11.1

10.5

13.0

12.0

13.1

12.4 12.3

10.8

13.814.2

13.6

15.1

14.6 14.413.8

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Billion BushelsCorn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

Sept

Oct

Nov

Final

Sept

Oct

Nov

Final

Sept

Oct

Nov

Final

Sept

Oct

Nov

Final

Sept

Oct

Nov

Final

SeptOct

0.325

0.330

0.335

0.340

0.345

0.350

0.355

0.360

0.365

28,000 28,200 28,400 28,600 28,800 29,000 29,200 29,400 29,600

Pounds/Ear

Ears Per Acre

Corn Objective Yield RegionEars per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

Note: Implied Ear Weight is only calculated for display purposes. Ears per Acre are from survey.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Implied Ear Weight = Published Yield * 56 / Ears per Acre

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

Year Dent Stage Mature

Percent

2015 16 70

2016 17 73

2017 41 51

2018 13 80

2019 49 29

Corn Objective Yield - OctoberPercent of Samples Processed in the Lab

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

NASSForecast

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

12.7

12.9

13.1

13.3

13.5

13.7

13.9

14.1

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

2019 United States Corn ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



Soybeans

Harvested Mil Ac 75.6 -0.3 -13.7

Yield Bu/Ac 46.9 -2.1 -7.3

Production Bil Bu 3.55 -2.3 -19.8

2.652.76

2.892.76

2.45

3.123.07

3.20

2.68

2.97

3.36 3.33

3.103.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.30

4.41 4.43

3.55

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Billion BushelsSoybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

Sept

Oct

Nov

Final

Sept

OctNov

Final

Sept

Oct

Nov

Final

Sept

Oct

Nov

Final

Sept

Oct

Nov

Final

Sept

Oct

0.290

0.300

0.310

0.320

0.330

0.340

0.350

0.360

1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000

Grams/Pod

Pods Per 18 Square Feet

Soybean Objective Yield RegionPods per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight

Note: Implied Pod Weight is only calculated for display purposes. Pods per 18 Square Feet are from survey.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Implied Pod Weight = Published Yield / Pods per 18 Square Feet / 0.0889

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

Year Mature

Percent

2015 54

2016 53

2017 49

2018 57

2019 25

Soybean Objective Yield - OctoberPercent of Samples Processed in the Lab

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

NASSForecast

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

3.45

3.55

3.65

3.75

3.85

3.95

4.05

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels2019 United States Soybean Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



All Cotton

Harvested Mil Ac 12.5 NC +22.6

Yield Lb/Ac 833 -0.7 -3.6

Production Mil Bls 21.7 -0.7 +18.2

17.017.2

20.3

17.2

18.3

23.323.9

21.6

19.2

12.8

12.2

18.1

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

20.9

18.4

21.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Million BalesAll Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



Rice

Harvested Mil Ac 2.48 NC -15.0

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,616 +0.7 -1.0

Production Mil Cwt 189 +0.7 -15.9

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



Peanuts


Yield Lbs/Ac 3,964 -3.0 -0.9

Production Bil Lbs 5.48 -3.0 -0.3

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



Sorghum

Harvested Mil Ac 4.72 -0.4 -6.8

Yield Bu/Ac 73.9 -0.5 +2.5

Production Mil Bu 349 -0.8 -4.5

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



Alfalfa Hay


Yield Tons/Ac 3.22 -2.1 +1.6

Production Mil Tons 54.2 -2.1 +3.0

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



All Other Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 35.9 NC -0.8

Yield Tons/Ac 2.13 +0.9 +8.7

Production Mil Tons 76.7 +1.4 +8.1

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



Production

Sugarcane Mil Tons 34.8 +0.1 +0.7

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 33.6 +0.2 +1.4

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 448 -7.2 -16.0

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



Production

Canola Bil Lbs 3.71 NA +2.6

Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.25 NA +6.9

USDA-NASS

10-10-19


% Change % Change

From From



Production

Dry Edible Beans Mil Cwt 23.8 -3.1 -36.5

Pecans Mil Lbs 281 NA +15.7

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

Release Date Title

October 23 Cotton Ginnings

October 25Cattle on Feed

Rice Stocks

October 31 Agricultural Prices

November 1 CAIR: Cotton, Fats & Oils, Flour Milling, and Grain Crushings

November 8Crop Production

Cotton Ginnings

Upcoming Events

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

USDA

Data Users’ Meeting

USDA NASS Data Users’ MeetingTuesday, October 15, 2019

American Farm Bureau Federation

600 Maryland Ave SW #1000w

Washington, DC 20024

USDA-NASS

10-10-19

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov

For Questions202-720-2127

800-727-9540

[email protected]

united states department of agriculture national ...€¦ · october 2019 crop production % change...

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