united states department of agriculture national agricultural … · 2019-02-08 · 12:00 p.m....

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Production - Annual

Grain Stocks

Rice Stocks

Cotton Ginnings

Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings

February Crop ProductionExecutive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

February 8, 2019

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

Field Crops Stocks Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Corn Citrus Potatoes

Soybeans Soybeans Sweet Potatoes

All Cotton Sorghum Peppermint Oil

Sorghum Rice Spearmint Oil

Rice Hay Hops

Hay & Forage All Wheat Taro (Hawaii)

Peanuts Barley

Proso Millet Oats

Minor Oilseeds

Sugarcane

Sugarbeets

Tobacco

Pulse Crops

Winter Wheat

Contents

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

December Ag Survey Off-Farm Grain Stocks

Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities

Collection MethodMail, Phone, Internet,

Personal Interview

Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal

Interview

Crops Included Field Crops

Corn, Soybeans, All Wheat,

Durum Wheat, Barley, Oats,

Sorghum, Pulse Crops

States All except HI All except AK, HI, and NV

Sample Size 81,967 ~8,500

Collection Period Nov 29 – Dec 19 Nov 30 – Dec 18

Survey Overview

Principal Crops Planted AcreageUnited States

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

Year Principal CropsChange From

Previous Year

Million Acres

2009 319.0 -6.6

2010 315.4 -3.6

2011 314.3 -1.1

2012 324.3 +10.0

2013 324.9 +0.6

2014 326.7 +1.7

2015 319.1 -7.6

2016 319.0 -0.1

2017 318.3 -0.7

2018 319.6 +1.3

320

301

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Million AcresPrincipal Crops

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

2018 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit February Previous Previous

2019 Forecast Season

Corn

Planted Mil Ac 89.1 -<0.1 -1.2

Harvested Mil Ac 81.7 -<0.1 -1.2

Yield Bu/Ac 176.4 -1.4 -0.1

Production Bil Bu 14.4 -1.4 -1.3

Stocks Bil Bu 12.0 NA -4.9

176.4

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

190.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Bushels per AcreCorn for Grain Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

14.1

14.3

14.5

14.7

14.9

15.1

15.3

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels2018 United States Corn Production

Industry Expectations vs NASS

NASS Estimates Individual Industry Expectation

13.7

14.7

14.1 13.4

11.7

14.7

15.4 15.3

16.9 16.916.6

12.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19

Billion BushelsCorn Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

11.85

11.95

12.05

12.15

12.25

12.35

12.45

December

Billion Bushels

2018 United States Corn StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS


USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From



Soybeans

Planted Mil Ac 89.2 +0.1 -1.1

Harvested Mil Ac 88.1 -0.3 -1.6

Yield Bu/Ac 51.6 -1.0 +4.7

Production Bil Bu 4.54 -1.2 +3.0

Stocks Bil Bu 3.74 NA +18.2

51.6

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Bushels per AcreSoybean Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

4.25

4.35

4.45

4.55

4.65

4.75

4.85

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels2018 United States Soybean Production



3.17

3.50 3.48 3.31

3.21

3.50

4.024.12

4.49

4.71

4.54

3.74

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19

Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

3.40

3.45

3.50

3.55

3.60

3.65

3.70

3.75

3.80

3.85

3.90

December

Billion Bushels

2018 United States Soybean StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS


USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From


2019 Estimate Season

All Cotton

Planted Mil Ac 14.1 +0.4 +10.9

Harvested Mil Ac 10.5 +1.5 -5.1

Yield Lb/Ac 838 -2.6 -7.4

Production Mil Bls 18.4 -1.1 -12.1

Cottonseed

Production Mil Tons 5.79 -1.1 -9.8

838

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Pounds per AcreAll Cotton Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From



Sorghum

Planted Mil Ac 5.69 -1.8 +1.1

Harvested Mil Ac 5.06 -0.6 +0.3

Yield Bu/Ac 72.1 +1.0 +0.6

Production Mil Bu 365 +0.4 +0.9

Stocks Mil Bu 246 NA +8.3

USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From



Rice

Planted Mil Ac 2.95 +0.1 +19.6

Harvested Mil Ac 2.92 +0.4 +22.8

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,692 +2.3 +2.5

Production Mil Cwt 224 +2.7 +25.8

Stocks Mil Cwt 139 NA +15.9

228

245

273

227

236

220

249

236

263

217

248

139

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19

Million HundredweightRough Rice Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Aug

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From



All Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 52.8 -4.0 +0.1

Yield Tons/Ac 2.34 -4.1 -3.7

Production Mil Tons 124 -8.0 -3.6

Stocks Mil Tons 79.1 NA -6.4

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From



Production

All Other Hay Mil Tons 71.0 -5.2 -2.0

Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 52.6 -11.6 -5.7

Proso Millet Mil Bu 12.0 NA -19.5

Peanuts Bil Lbs 5.46 -0.2 -23.2

USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From



Production

Canola Bil Lbs 3.62 -0.1 +18.4

Flaxseed Mil Bu 4.47 NA +16.2

Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 73.1 NA +24.2

Rapeseed Mil Lbs 8.23 NA -54.9

Safflower Mil Lbs 236 NA +34.3

Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.12 +9.4 -1.0

USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From



All Tobacco Mil Lbs 533 -2.7 -24.9

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 33.1 -1.1 -6.2

Sugarcane Mil Tons 34.8 +2.9 +4.6

USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From



Production

A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 124 -15.1 +24.0

Dry Peas Mil Cwt 15.9 +14.8 +12.2

Dry Beans Mil Cwt 37.5 -0.9 +4.3

Lentils Mil Cwt 8.41 -4.3 +12.4

Wrinkled Seed Thou Cwt 389 NA +9.0

USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From



Production

Potatoes Mil Cwt 454 <+0.1 <-0.1

Sweet Potatoes Mil Cwt 27.4 NA -23.2

Peppermint Oil Mil Lbs 5.38 NA -6.5

Spearmint Oil Mil Lbs 2.57 NA -8.0

Taro (Hawaii) Mil Lbs 2.99 NA -19.0

Hops Mil Lbs 107 NA +1.2

USDA-NASS

2-8-19


% Change % Change

From From


2019 Estimate Year

Stocks

All Wheat Bil Bu 2.00 NA +6.7

Barley Mil Bu 153 NA -3.9

Oats Mil Bu 67.2 NA +1.2

2.82

2.87

3.14

2.86

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.81

3.28

2.922.98

2.39

2.00

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19

Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks

United States

Supply Sep Dec Mar Jun

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

2.05

December

Billion Bushels

2018 United States All Wheat StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS


USDA-NASS

2-8-19

Winter Wheat Seedings

% Change % Change

From From



Wheat, Winter

Planted Mil Ac 31.3 NA -3.8

31.3

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations


HighOf Expectations

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

33.0

33.5

December March June Final

Million Acres2019 United States Winter Wheat Acres


NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

February 2019 Crop Production

% Change

From

Crop Unit February Previous

2019 Jan 1 Dec 1 Season

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 5.54 NC +0.1 +41.3

Grapefruit Thou Tons 668 -1.2 -1.2 +29.2

Tangerines

& MandarinsThou Tons 968 NC -0.9 +20.4

Lemons Thou Tons 856 NA NC -3.6

% Change

From

Previous Forecasts

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

Release Date Report Title

February 20 Agricultural Prices (January Report)

February 22

Cattle on Feed (January Report)

CAIR: Cotton System

CAIR: Fats and Oils

CAIR: Grain Crushings

February 28

Agricultural Prices (February Report)

Cattle

Sheep and Goats

Upcoming Reports

USDA-NASS

2-8-19

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov

For Questions202-720-2127

800-727-9540

[email protected]

united states department of agriculture national agricultural … · 2019-02-08 · 12:00 p.m....

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