united states agriculture grain · demand. foreign exports are currently expected to be up only 2.0...

Grain: World Markets and Trade

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA

The United States was poised to regain a significant share of the global corn market based on early forecasts of a record crop. However, the recent dry and hot conditions throughout much of the U.S. corn belt during a key stage in crop development has caused a dramatic cut in expected production and led to a month-to-month drop in projected exports from 48 million tons to 40 million. That leaves the United States with the same market share as in 2011/12 and far below its historical position as the supplier of well more than half the world’s corn exports. The tightening supply situation has caused U.S. prices (a proxy for world prices) to jump 35 percent in just 1 month (September futures contract), which is expected to constrain import demand. Foreign exports are currently expected to be up only 2.0 million tons from last month. However, key Southern Hemisphere countries like Brazil and Argentina may expand corn area when planting begins later this year, if prices remain high.

U.S. Corn Export Market Share Falls As Crop Expectations Plummet

United States Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Circular Series FG 07-12 July 2012

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Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 2012

2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

World Markets and Trade: Commentary and Current Data Wheat ............................................................................................................. 4 Rice .............................................................................................................. 10 Coarse Grains ............................................................................................... 14 Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries ........................... 35 Endnotes to Grain: World Markets and Trade ............................................. 54 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 9 a.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. It is available on the FAS website (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/). This circular is released at 10:00 a.m. on the same day, together with its downloadable data set.

July 2012

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/�

All Grain Summary Comparison

Marketing Year

Wheat Rice, Milled Corn

2012/132011/122010/112012/132011/122010/112012/132011/122010/11

Production

United States (Jun-May) 60.1 54.4 60.5 7.6 5.9 6.1 316.2 313.9 329.5

Other 591.1 640.3 604.8 441.8 458.1 459.0 513.0 559.8 575.8

World Total 651.1 694.7 665.3 449.4 463.9 465.1 829.1 873.7 905.2

Domestic Consumption


Other 623.0 656.9 646.8 439.5 452.9 460.0 565.0 584.3 615.5

World Total 653.7 689.1 680.1 443.9 456.6 464.0 850.0 863.8 898.0

Ending Stocks


Other 173.8 177.0 164.4 97.1 103.1 101.6 95.7 106.4 104.0

World Total 197.2 197.2 182.4 98.6 104.2 102.5 124.3 129.4 134.1

TY Imports


Other 128.0 143.6 130.1 33.0 32.3 32.7 90.2 94.7 95.0

World Total 130.6 146.7 133.3 33.6 33.1 33.5 90.9 95.2 95.7

TY Exports


Other 97.8 121.1 103.1 32.9 32.0 32.7 46.6 57.0 57.5

World Total 133.7 149.2 135.6 36.1 35.5 35.8 91.9 97.0 97.5

Note: Consumption in this table has not been adjusted for differences in marketing year imports and exports

and therefore differs from global totals shown elsewhere.

Marketing years for U.S. grains are: Wheat (Jun-May), Rice (Aug-Jul), Corn (Sep-Aug).

'Marketing Year' column is germane for U.S. wheat only.

July 2012


4

WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE OVERVIEW Global production in 2012/13 is cut 6.7 million tons, mostly in China, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Global trade is down slightly. The U.S. export forecast is raised this month because of reduced competition from the Black Sea region. Global trade in 2011/12 is raised to a new record reflecting strong demand for wheat used in animal feeds in lieu of high-priced corn. The season-average U.S. farm price is raised 60 cents to $6.20-7.40 per bushel. PRICES:

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

$/M

T

U.S. Weekly FOB Export Bids

HRS SRW SWW HRW

Domestic: Prices of all wheat classes surged, underpinned by rallying corn prices. Soft Red Winter (SRW) soared $65 to $313 per ton, while Hard Red Winter (HRW) jumped $56 to $336/ton. Hard Red Spring (HRS) rose $42 to $382 per ton, and Soft White Winter (SWW) was up $49 to $312 per ton.

July 2012


5

TRADE CHANGES IN 2012/13 Selected Exporters

• EU is raised 1.5 million tons to 16.0 million on larger crops in France and Germany, and tighter exportable supplies in the Black Sea region.

• India is up 2.0 million tons to 5.0 million, the highest in 9 years, due to the government’s approval of exports from government stocks.

• Kazakhstan is cut 1.5 million tons to 7.0 million on reduced exportable supplies.

• Russia is slashed 4.0 million tons to 12.0 million as a result of tightening exportable supplies.

• United States is up 1.0 million tons to 32.5 million on account of tightening supplies in other exporter countries.

Selected Importers

• China is cut 500,000 tons to 2.0 million due to higher wheat prices.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2011/12 Selected Exporters Large late-season adjustments reflect reported shipments

• Argentina is raised 700,000 tons to 11.5 million.

• Australia is up 500,000 tons to 22.5 million, a record.

• Kazakhstan is raised 500,000 tons to 10.5 million, a record.

• Russia is up 300,000 tons to 21.3 million, a record.

Selected Importers

• Iran is raised 500,000 tons to 2.5 million.

• Thailand is raised 400,000 tons to a record 2.3 million.

July 2012


6

• Turkey is up 300,000 tons to a record 3.8 million.

• Uzbekistan is raised 350,000 tons to a record 2.7 million.

July 2012

World Wheat, Flour, and Products Trade

July/June Year, Thousand Metric Tons

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

TY Exports

7,0007,00011,5007,7425,2558,651 Argentina

20,50020,50022,50018,47713,76413,450 Australia

18,50018,50017,30016,76818,99218,674 Canada

16,00014,50016,20022,90622,11525,351 EU-27

5,0003,0001,150746221 India

7,0008,50010,5005,5197,8715,701 Kazakhstan

12,00016,00021,3003,98318,55618,393 Russia

3,7003,7003,7002,9454,3632,342 Turkey

4,0004,0005,0004,3029,33713,037 Ukraine

1,3001,3001,3001,197994616 Uruguay

8,0508,12510,66913,83810,08210,210 Others

103,050105,125121,11997,751111,391116,446 Subtotal

32,50031,50028,10035,97724,17227,101 United States

135,550136,625149,219133,728135,563143,547 World Total

none

TY Imports

2,0002,0002,0002,0002,5003,800 Afghanistan

5,2005,2006,1006,4365,1676,356 Algeria

3,0003,0001,9003,9513,3532,882 Bangladesh

7,0007,0007,0006,7466,6946,767 Brazil

2,0002,5003,2009271,394481 China

10,00010,00011,20010,60010,5009,900 Egypt

5,5005,5007,5004,7275,5197,737 EU-27

6,6006,8006,2006,6075,3645,419 Indonesia

3,7003,7003,7003,6323,8993,879 Iraq

1,5001,5001,8001,3921,8622,063 Israel

5,9005,9006,4005,8695,5025,156 Japan

4,1004,1005,4004,7614,4703,371 Korea, South

4,1004,1005,1003,4623,1963,342 Mexico

5,0005,0003,5003,9032,3043,759 Morocco

3,9003,9003,9004,0514,0203,550 Nigeria

1,7001,7001,6001,7571,7031,385 Peru

3,2003,2003,8003,2713,1883,201 Philippines

2,3002,3002,8001,7421,9091,275 Saudi Arabia

1,8001,8001,9001,6041,9011,712 Sudan

2,0002,0002,3001,9191,6001,128 Thailand

3,5003,5003,8003,5173,2183,578 Turkey

1,8002,0002,6501,6241,6771,440 Uzbekistan

1,6001,6001,6001,4691,5971,501 Venezuela

2,0002,0002,8002,4601,9271,016 Vietnam

2,7002,7002,7002,8452,6022,796 Yemen

37,95038,22542,71036,75542,42949,768 Others

130,050131,225143,560128,027129,495137,262 Subtotal

2,3002,2002,5593,1302,8822,886 Unaccounted

3,2003,2003,1002,5713,1863,399 United States

135,550136,625149,219133,728135,563143,547 World Total

TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.

July 2012

World Wheat Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

Production

12,00012,00014,50016,10012,00011,000 Argentina

26,00026,00029,50027,89121,83421,420 Australia

5,0005,0005,8005,9005,0265,880 Brazil

26,60027,00025,26023,16726,84828,611 Canada

118,000120,000117,920115,180115,120112,464 China

8,5008,5008,4007,2008,5237,977 Egypt

133,140131,005137,383135,697138,816151,122 EU-27

91,00091,00086,87080,80080,68078,570 India

14,00014,00013,50015,03013,4857,957 Iran

13,00015,00022,7329,63817,05112,538 Kazakhstan

23,00023,00024,20023,90024,00020,959 Pakistan

49,00053,00056,23141,50861,77063,765 Russia

16,50016,50018,80017,00018,45016,800 Turkey

13,00013,00022,12416,84420,86625,885 Ukraine

6,3006,3006,3006,5006,2006,000 Uzbekistan

49,75749,95750,75448,72355,15443,790 Others

604,797611,262640,274591,078625,823614,738 Subtotal

60,52960,80254,41360,06260,36668,016 United States

665,326672,064694,687651,140686,189682,754 World Total

none

Total Consumption

9,0509,0508,9508,7508,5508,300 Algeria

11,00011,00011,20010,80011,00010,700 Brazil

7,8507,85010,4007,6896,9277,977 Canada

122,000122,000120,500110,500107,000105,500 China

18,90018,90018,90017,70018,10017,200 Egypt

123,750123,250126,750122,000125,000127,000 EU-27

85,45085,45081,55581,76078,15070,924 India

15,00014,80015,50016,20016,80015,800 Iran

7,5008,5009,0006,2007,6007,500 Kazakhstan

8,6008,6008,8508,2508,1007,450 Morocco

23,20023,20023,10023,00023,00022,800 Pakistan

37,90037,90038,50038,60039,60038,900 Russia

17,60017,60018,10017,30017,10016,900 Turkey

11,70011,70014,95011,60012,30011,900 Ukraine

7,7007,9008,0007,7007,5007,100 Uzbekistan

139,584140,344142,598134,911132,310126,299 Others

646,777648,176662,479623,748622,467608,817 Subtotal

33,28433,69332,26430,71030,97834,293 United States

680,061681,869694,743654,458653,445643,110 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

7,5646,3998,6998,8245,5923,389 Australia

5,7866,1865,1367,1767,8296,547 Canada

55,71157,49158,71159,09154,42545,803 China

5,4085,2086,0085,5085,6054,857 Egypt

12,49812,36313,60811,67516,15718,937 EU-27

21,00023,00019,95015,36016,12013,430 India

9,5679,96710,26713,73614,72210,944 Russia

46,84446,24954,58652,39853,55046,034 Others

164,378166,863176,965173,768174,000149,941 Subtotal

18,06518,89220,21323,46626,55217,867 United States

182,443185,755197,178197,234200,552167,808 World Total

July 2012

Regional Wheat Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Thousand Metric Tons

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Jun

2012/13

Jul

2012/13

TY Imports none

7,128 North America 6,785 6,462 8,600 7,700 7,700

1,474 Central America 1,445 1,687 1,600 1,575 1,575

13,097 South America 13,173 13,004 13,590 13,490 13,490

7,737 European Union 5,519 4,727 7,500 5,500 5,500

1,712 Other Europe 1,696 1,654 1,810 1,785 1,785

6,569 Former Soviet Union - 12 5,415 5,658 7,450 6,610 6,160

28,218 Middle East 22,557 17,286 21,875 18,680 18,680

23,472 North Africa 21,592 24,180 23,800 23,000 23,100

14,174 Sub-Saharan Africa 16,388 15,259 17,800 15,965 15,965

11,322 East Asia 13,744 13,904 17,350 14,725 14,225

10,771 South Asia 7,608 7,619 5,235 6,410 6,410

12,324 Southeast Asia 13,902 16,334 17,050 15,960 15,760

2,663 Others 2,857 2,824 3,000 3,025 2,900

140,661 Total 132,681 130,598 146,660 134,425 133,250

Production none

100,627 North America 91,362 86,908 83,373 91,102 90,429

20,516 South America 22,039 26,696 24,961 21,984 21,984

151,122 European Union 138,816 135,697 137,383 131,005 133,140

4,710 Other Europe 4,646 3,865 4,319 4,059 4,059


30,303 Middle East 38,940 40,241 40,274 38,090 38,090

14,352 North Africa 20,261 15,933 18,425 16,775 16,775


113,806 East Asia 116,449 116,355 119,344 121,415 119,415

103,898 South Asia 111,200 110,792 116,140 120,420 120,420

21,697 Oceania 22,111 28,168 29,777 26,277 26,277

171 Others 176 181 186 186 186

682,754 Total 686,189 651,140 694,687 672,064 665,326

Domestic Consumption none

48,270 North America 44,205 44,849 50,514 48,343 47,934

24,549 South America 25,723 25,598 26,195 26,150 26,200

127,000 European Union 125,000 122,000 126,750 123,250 123,750

5,585 Other Europe 5,494 5,356 5,590 5,590 5,590


52,587 Middle East 54,441 54,964 56,349 54,005 54,205

37,375 North Africa 39,750 39,225 41,300 40,900 41,050


117,218 East Asia 120,187 124,082 135,043 135,500 135,700

105,229 South Asia 113,811 116,851 115,535 120,930 120,930

12,104 Southeast Asia 13,188 15,033 16,895 16,210 16,010

8,115 Oceania 5,840 7,065 7,775 8,380 7,815

3,363 Others 3,295 3,361 3,275 3,340 3,245

636,543 Total 650,015 653,670 689,117 681,737 680,068

Ending Stocks none

24,729 North America 34,901 31,032 25,989 25,718 24,491

4,902 South America 6,442 6,852 4,486 5,095 4,045

18,937 European Union 16,157 11,675 13,608 12,363 12,498

2,107 Other Europe 2,120 1,453 1,327 1,211 1,211


11,635 Middle East 14,010 12,720 12,108 10,908 11,758

9,216 North Africa 10,949 11,473 11,998 10,248 10,498


48,636 East Asia 57,260 61,999 62,155 60,290 58,590

17,393 South Asia 21,536 21,288 24,878 27,628 25,628

2,813 Southeast Asia 3,115 3,947 3,642 2,897 2,897

3,596 Oceania 5,773 9,056 9,013 6,675 7,840

314 Others 406 372 353 534 549

167,808 Total 200,552 197,234 197,178 185,755 182,443

NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported

using local marketing years.

July 2012


10

RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

OVERVIEW Global production in 2012/13 is expected to remain a record despite a smaller crop in India. Consumption is forecast to outpace production for the first time in several years, causing a dip in still-massive ending stocks. Trade in 2013 is expected to be marginally higher than 2012 but just shy of the 2011 record. FEATURE Prices have not returned to their pre-2008 pattern when quotes from Thailand, India, and Vietnam generally moved together, and the gaps between them were narrow. Since the 2008 spike, quotes have converged and diverged, with gaps between suppliers occasionally surpassing $200 per ton. This has been the case since May, when Thai quotes jumped while Viet and Indian quotes fell. The paddy pledging scheme in Thailand is keeping prices artificially high, while in India, massive stocks are pushing prices down. Like most of the price movements since 2008, the current divergence is linked to policy rather than to changes in supply or demand.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES

• China’s imports are up 500,000 tons to 1.5 million for 2012 and 2013 as lower prices in Vietnam spur trade.

• Egypt’s 2012 imports are raised 200,000 tons to a record 800,000 as the government continues to buy rice from abroad for its ration card program.

• Indonesia’s imports are down 700,000 tons to 1.3 million for 2012 on indications of a slow-down in Bulog’s purchases.

• U.S. exports are up 100,000 tons to 3.1 million for 2013 on a larger crop.

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12

$/MT

THAI 100B VIET 5% INDIA 5%

Policies Still Driving Price Gaps

July 2012

World Rice Trade

January/December Year, Thousand Metric Tons

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

TY Exports

560560650732468594 Argentina

5005004503115417 Australia

9009009001,296430591 Brazil

7507506007784451,052 Burma

950950800860750820 Cambodia

600600500487619783 China

600600600320570575 Egypt

235235245241282150 EU-27

250250230250275244 Guyana

6,5006,5008,0004,6372,2282,149 India

200200200200200200 Japan

4,0004,0003,7503,4144,0003,187 Pakistan

8,0008,0006,50010,6479,0478,570 Thailand

850850850841808926 Uruguay

7,0007,0007,0007,0006,7345,950 Vietnam

800835729918768576 Others

32,69532,73032,00432,93227,67826,384 Subtotal

3,1003,0003,4503,2133,8683,017 United States

35,79535,73035,45436,14531,54629,401 World Total

none

TY Imports

6006004001,483660146 Bangladesh

610610660591778650 Brazil

350350330310300300 Cameroon

1,5001,0001,500575366337 China

950950950935840800 Cote d'Ivoire

525525525558498457 Cuba

750750800761520 Egypt

1,5501,5501,4001,4751,2161,383 EU-27

400400400545320410 Ghana

425425415381390397 Hong Kong

1,4501,4001,2503,0981,150250 Indonesia

1,9501,9501,9001,8701,5201,470 Iran

1,2001,2001,2001,0361,1881,089 Iraq

700700700697649750 Japan

400400600532320241 Korea, South

1,0501,0501,0851,0769071,086 Malaysia

800800750705575610 Mexico

375375375360325385 Mozambique

2,2502,2502,4502,5502,0002,000 Nigeria

1,5001,5001,5001,2002,4002,000 Philippines

1,1751,1751,1501,0591,0691,072 Saudi Arabia

820820820805685715 Senegal

1,0001,000900885733745 South Africa

440440430420400380 United Arab Emirates

400400400500400500 Vietnam

9,5359,4109,4369,2599,0728,159 Others

32,70532,03032,32632,98128,77626,352 Subtotal

2,3402,9502,4032,5442,2082,367 Unaccounted

750750725620562682 United States

35,79535,73035,45436,14531,54629,401 World Total


Note about dates: 2012/13 is calendar year 2013, 2011/12 is calendar year 2012, and so on.

July 2012

World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

Milled Production

34,10034,10034,00031,70031,00031,200 Bangladesh

8,6708,6707,8609,3007,9298,570 Brazil

11,00011,00010,81610,52811,64211,200 Burma

4,5004,5004,2684,2334,0563,992 Cambodia

141,000141,000140,700137,000136,570134,330 China

4,5003,8004,2503,1004,5644,673 Egypt

100,000102,500103,40095,98089,09099,180 India

36,90036,90036,30035,50036,37038,310 Indonesia

7,3587,3587,6467,7207,7118,029 Japan

4,2004,2004,2244,2954,9164,843 Korea, South

6,8006,8006,5005,0006,8006,900 Pakistan

10,80010,80010,63910,5399,77210,755 Philippines

3,2003,2003,3112,4902,6502,227 Sri Lanka

21,05021,05020,46020,26220,26019,850 Thailand

26,87526,50026,73526,37124,99324,393 Vietnam

38,03938,30036,95637,75535,81633,693 Others

458,992460,678458,065441,773434,139442,145 Subtotal

6,0865,8315,8747,5937,1336,546 United States

465,078466,509463,939449,366441,272448,691 World Total

none

Consumption and Residual

35,00035,00034,50032,40031,60031,200 Bangladesh

8,1008,1008,1308,2008,4778,400 Brazil

10,63010,63010,14010,10010,89010,800 Burma

3,5903,5903,4503,3703,2703,220 Cambodia

141,500141,000139,500135,000134,320133,000 China

4,3004,0004,0703,3003,9404,270 Egypt

96,00096,00093,90090,20685,50891,090 India

39,70040,00039,30039,00038,00037,100 Indonesia

3,5003,5003,4003,2503,1503,100 Iran

7,9707,9708,0508,2008,2008,326 Japan

4,8004,8004,9775,1754,7014,789 Korea, South

5,1505,1505,2005,0304,5804,220 Nigeria

12,85012,85012,80012,90013,12513,100 Philippines

10,60010,60010,40010,30010,2009,500 Thailand

20,10020,10019,75019,40019,15019,000 Vietnam

56,23056,31555,34853,67852,44550,316 Others

462,784462,858454,659441,550434,478433,058 Subtotal

4,0093,8823,7214,3584,0164,082 United States

466,793466,740458,380445,908438,494437,140 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

45,17445,17444,77442,57440,53438,546 China

22,00024,50025,00023,50020,50019,000 India

3,0753,2254,4256,1756,5777,057 Indonesia

2,6732,6732,7852,6892,6932,715 Japan

1,2481,2481,7982,4593,5204,673 Philippines

12,12512,1259,3755,6156,1004,787 Thailand

2,5012,0412,3261,9411,4701,961 Vietnam

12,75512,36212,61112,16312,59412,678 Others

101,551103,348103,09497,11693,98891,417 Subtotal

9238121,0951,5141,184977 United States

102,474104,160104,18998,63095,17292,394 World Total

Note: All data are reported on a milled basis.

July 2012

Regional Rice Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Jun

2012/13

Jul

2012/13

TY Imports none

1,614 North America 1,495 1,653 1,815 1,890 1,890

906 Caribbean 989 1,099 1,015 1,015 1,015

1,116 South America 1,354 1,260 1,460 1,410 1,410

126 Other Europe 126 139 143 137 137

412 Former Soviet Union - 12 401 335 358 393 393

5,349 Middle East 5,808 5,974 6,130 6,190 6,190

155 North Africa 345 364 1,140 1,100 1,100


1,873 East Asia 1,960 2,399 3,460 2,755 3,255

524 South Asia 1,016 1,861 820 935 980

4,542 Southeast Asia 5,537 6,504 4,860 5,080 5,130

2,217 Others 2,099 2,293 2,190 2,345 2,345

27,034 Total 29,338 33,601 33,051 32,780 33,455

Production none

6,707 North America 7,315 7,739 5,989 5,959 6,214

833 Caribbean 954 938 992 992 992

16,459 South America 15,664 17,195 15,049 16,496 16,246

1,760 European Union 2,052 2,045 1,952 1,886 1,886

902 Former Soviet Union - 12 1,143 1,321 1,280 1,304 1,289

2,075 Middle East 2,049 2,123 2,169 2,182 2,182

4,693 North Africa 4,598 3,139 4,289 3,829 4,529


150,087 East Asia 152,218 151,801 155,345 155,319 155,319

142,623 South Asia 132,765 138,336 150,449 149,850 147,350

111,389 Southeast Asia 110,063 110,466 112,351 113,981 114,356

662 Others 795 1,237 1,413 1,428 1,432

448,691 Total 441,272 449,366 463,939 466,509 465,078


5,177 North America 5,160 5,465 4,959 5,142 5,269

1,094 Central America 1,110 1,099 1,161 1,136 1,136

1,784 Caribbean 1,892 2,035 2,006 2,006 2,006

14,782 South America 14,915 14,510 14,299 14,420 14,270

3,065 European Union 3,025 3,241 3,300 3,300 3,300


7,627 Middle East 7,756 8,109 8,260 8,455 8,455

4,402 North Africa 4,307 3,657 4,449 4,379 4,679


149,585 East Asia 150,739 151,733 155,922 157,201 157,701

131,561 South Asia 126,162 130,810 137,313 139,965 140,010

96,910 Southeast Asia 98,916 99,572 100,401 102,535 102,235

566 Others 619 645 684 737 737

435,513 Total 435,572 443,867 456,636 463,487 464,029

Ending Stocks none

1,143 North America 1,322 1,727 1,283 1,016 1,127

205 Central America 240 254 241 258 262

114 Caribbean 126 131 137 143 143

2,230 South America 1,859 2,107 1,417 1,891 1,860

1,020 European Union 1,120 1,056 1,013 914 914

1,997 Middle East 1,659 1,807 1,781 1,598 1,598

564 North Africa 498 122 502 452 852


42,493 East Asia 45,098 46,667 48,842 48,910 48,910

21,523 South Asia 22,561 25,542 27,998 27,808 25,308

19,934 Southeast Asia 19,441 17,653 19,561 19,802 20,112

26 Oceania 46 29 92 72 72

128 Others 156 198 200 190 190

92,394 Total 95,172 98,630 104,189 104,160 102,474



July 2012


14

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

$/M

T

Corn Daily Export Bids

Argentina Up River Brazil Paranagua U.S. Gulf Black Sea

COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE OVERVIEW Global corn trade for 2012/13 plunged this month because of drastically tighter exportable supplies in the United States outweighing record exportable supplies in South America. U.S. corn exports are slashed and the season-average farm price is projected sharply higher. U.S. exports are also lowered for 2011/12. PRICES U.S. corn export quotes have risen continually since their recent lows in late May, gaining over $60/ton ($45/ton from June’s USDA report) to finish the first week in July at nearly $310/ton. Brazilian prices are up, now about level with Argentine. A price series for Black Sea corn (Ukraine) is added this month. Black Sea quotes are at a steady discount to U.S. corn.

July 2012


15


• U.S. corn exports are slashed by 8.0 million tons to 40.0 million based on sharply lower crop prospects following prolonged heat and dryness in key growing areas.

Based on the huge cut in U.S. corn exports, the following changes are made:

o Argentine corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 15.5 million.

o Brazilian corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to a record 12.5 million.

o Canadian corn is raised 300,000 tons to 800,000.

o Indian corn is up 300,000 tons to 2.5 million (greater competitiveness to Asian destinations).

• Argentine and Australian barley are raised a combined 500,000 tons based on less

competition from Canada, Russia, and Ukraine.

• Canadian barley is cut 200,000 tons to 1.1 million, reflecting a smaller crop estimate (reduced planted area).

• Russian barley is lowered 200,000 tons to 2.0 million because of reduced crop prospects. (Imports are doubled to 400,000 tons, reflecting greater demand for malting barley from the EU.)

• Ukrainian barley is cut 500,000 tons to 2.0 million because of a sharply lower crop forecast.

Selected Importers

• U.S. corn is boosted by 350,000 tons to a record 750,000 based on larger exportable supplies in Canada and indications of competitive imports from Brazil.

TMT TMT TMT TMT

July 2012


16

Based on the huge cut to U.S. corn exports, a number of offsetting import changes are being made:

o Chinese corn is cut 2.0 million tons to 5.0 million with prospects for competitive U.S. prices diminished and ample domestic supplies.

o Japanese and Korean corn are each cut 500,000 tons (although total grains fed

are expected to surpass 2011/12).

o Mexican corn is cut 300,000 tons to 9.0 million.

• EU corn is cut 2.0 million tons to 5.0 million on improved crop prospects.

• Israeli corn is raised 250,000 tons to a record 1.6 million with higher corn feeding in the face of tighter global wheat and barley supplies. Barley imports are cut by more than half to 200,000 tons.

• Syrian barley is slashed by 200,000 tons to 100,000, the lowest in 15 years, on tight

global supplies and unstable economic conditions. (Imports for 2011/12 are cut the same amount, to 300,000 tons.)


• U.S. corn is cut 2.5 million tons to 40.0 million as poor sales and shipments continue and old-crop supplies become increasingly tight.

• Brazilian corn is raised 1.0 million tons to 11.0 million based on better prospects for second-crop corn and indications of strong sales.

• EU corn is raised 400,000 tons to 3.1 million based on export licenses and trade data.

• Indian corn is raised sharply by 1.4 million tons to 3.8 million based on reports of strong shipments to Asia.

• Russian corn is up again this month, this time by 200,000 tons, to a new record 2.2 million on account of recent trade data. Barley exports are raised 300,000 tons to 3.2 million.

Selected Importers

• EU corn is boosted 800,000 tons to 6.3 million based on import licenses and trade data.

• Japanese and Korean corn are each cut 500,000 tons based on sluggish imports and purchases and weak feed grain demand.

July 2012

World Coarse Grain Trade

October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

TY Exports

21,90521,20519,60518,62819,03010,249 Argentina

5,3255,0255,8854,8994,4144,873 Australia

12,50511,50511,00511,5928,6277,187 Brazil

3,6503,6503,4254,4273,0683,852 Canada

4,5804,5806,1305,8604,2674,338 EU-27

2,5752,2753,8503,4372,0722,642 India

3,6053,8055,5551,0282,5284,945 Russia

1,8101,8101,7052,0131,3661,478 Serbia

2,0202,0201,5202,8591,6342,159 South Africa

16,01016,51016,3107,45610,93611,380 Ukraine

5,9406,0406,2074,7067,1396,025 Others

79,92578,42581,19766,90565,08159,128 Subtotal

43,74551,74541,49349,26953,98951,558 United States

123,670130,170122,690116,174119,070110,686 World Total

none

TY Imports

3,2003,2003,4002,9452,5762,067 Algeria

1,1551,1551,4556331,0491,497 Brazil

1,3001,3001,3501,2711,2751,317 Chile

7,2609,2607,0602,6973,7771,651 China

4,2554,2554,2554,1484,1023,483 Colombia

1,1001,1001,0501,0011,071973 Dominican Republic

5,2755,2755,0855,8395,8975,093 Egypt

5,5557,5556,8808,6093,0122,988 EU-27

2,0002,0002,0003,0411,321317 Indonesia

3,8003,8004,7004,0005,1005,000 Iran

1,7851,7851,3851,4461,5921,295 Israel

18,41018,91017,83518,59019,19819,611 Japan

9009001,100923713785 Jordan

8,0608,5607,0608,1688,5097,248 Korea, South

3,1003,1003,1002,8093,1072,447 Malaysia

12,22512,52511,75010,76710,91310,465 Mexico

2,8252,8252,5052,0592,1941,833 Morocco

2,2252,1252,1002,0791,8861,520 Peru

9,1059,1059,5058,1389,0769,186 Saudi Arabia

1,8002,0001,9001,9592,2742,834 Syria

4,4504,4504,3504,3274,6634,658 Taiwan

1,0501,0501,1009581,202875 Tunisia

1,0551,055570500683687 Turkey

1,7001,7001,7001,2512,1981,340 Venezuela

1,5001,5001,2001,0001,6001,250 Vietnam

13,02512,82513,01213,53114,86414,932 Others

118,115123,315117,407112,689113,852105,352 Subtotal

2,7554,3052,6811,0362,9432,527 Unaccounted

2,8002,5502,6022,4492,2752,807 United States

123,670130,170122,690116,174119,070110,686 World Total


July 2012

World Coarse Grains Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

Production

35,65235,65229,40531,65828,53119,634 Argentina

12,57712,57713,22711,76210,92012,282 Australia

70,43370,43372,83360,38058,41253,486 Brazil

24,98425,35021,86622,26322,47727,184 Canada

202,010202,010199,660183,398169,775172,391 China

10,93010,93011,43510,4698,0469,034 Ethiopia

149,557148,235145,959140,589155,038162,102 EU-27

42,85042,85041,93043,37033,89039,550 India

8,5008,5008,7006,8006,9008,700 Indonesia

28,47828,47825,80329,25727,25432,252 Mexico

24,01024,01023,80023,25023,25026,670 Nigeria

31,75032,90032,79616,41631,84340,881 Russia

13,45113,45111,98211,32113,88113,084 South Africa

10,47510,47511,27510,18511,17610,408 Turkey

31,30032,80033,33621,44224,14326,275 Ukraine

142,731143,131137,976143,816136,613132,955 Others

839,688841,782821,983766,376762,149786,888 Subtotal

343,946389,817323,697330,236348,755325,867 United States

1,183,6341,231,5991,145,6801,096,6121,110,9041,112,755 World Total

none

Domestic Consumption

12,75212,75211,52011,38310,0548,768 Argentina

59,68859,68857,24852,73349,71448,191 Brazil

21,87421,98519,93620,90822,21622,892 Canada

210,055210,055196,555188,175173,151161,062 China

12,15012,15011,95013,59513,07212,162 Egypt

10,88210,88211,2609,9258,5439,033 Ethiopia

152,885152,885150,010152,000150,080151,855 EU-27

40,30041,10038,45038,85032,00036,500 India

18,61519,11518,06618,87519,64519,965 Japan

40,14040,14038,34039,33540,86542,060 Mexico

24,00024,00023,75023,20023,05026,550 Nigeria

28,15028,90027,57818,13130,44033,011 Russia

11,59811,59811,20811,21310,83310,468 South Africa

11,67511,67511,62511,07510,86510,700 Turkey

15,40016,20015,85013,74212,96413,696 Ukraine

212,132213,232204,746208,293200,269196,798 Others

886,204892,879854,463831,885815,132806,075 Subtotal

294,702313,347290,788297,973295,337275,978 United States

1,180,9061,206,2261,145,2511,129,8581,110,4691,082,053 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

13,26514,26513,37010,63510,28712,450 Brazil

3,1293,3843,0993,5395,6506,326 Canada

59,03960,93960,10950,13452,40252,206 China

10,94911,72713,30216,75325,85420,844 EU-27

2,5502,5502,6001,6502,4542,548 Saudi Arabia

2,8932,9182,9553,5915,3674,327 South Africa

2,8703,0702,9002,1442,2092,374 Ukraine

37,40637,71538,68441,59743,22147,007 Others

132,101136,568137,019130,043147,444148,082 Subtotal

33,38751,17625,74132,28848,13347,060 United States

165,488187,744162,760162,331195,577195,142 World Total

July 2012

Regional Coarse Grains Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Jun

2012/13

Jul

2012/13

TY Imports none

15,172 North America 15,199 14,261 15,317 15,645 15,595

2,491 Central America 2,537 2,900 2,925 3,050 3,050

2,011 Caribbean 2,139 2,169 2,280 2,325 2,325

9,745 South America 11,108 10,479 11,550 11,380 11,480

2,988 European Union 3,012 8,609 6,880 7,555 5,555

664 Former Soviet Union - 12 456 1,184 675 695 895

21,247 Middle East 21,318 18,734 20,835 20,445 20,245

10,592 North Africa 13,107 12,344 12,640 13,000 13,000


33,349 East Asia 36,276 33,928 36,435 41,310 38,310

5,405 Southeast Asia 6,725 7,558 6,960 7,115 7,115

750 Others 922 944 872 860 860

108,159 Total 116,127 115,138 120,009 125,865 120,915

Production none

385,303 North America 398,486 381,756 371,366 443,645 397,408

84,977 South America 98,905 103,755 114,141 119,160 118,960

162,102 European Union 155,038 140,589 145,959 148,235 149,557

12,273 Other Europe 11,787 12,139 11,463 12,257 12,257


16,046 Middle East 18,950 18,746 19,036 18,371 18,371

10,218 North Africa 14,890 12,358 11,221 10,581 10,581


174,467 East Asia 171,531 185,291 201,625 203,994 203,994

45,688 South Asia 40,281 49,729 48,213 49,208 49,208

27,734 Southeast Asia 25,451 26,934 29,361 30,240 30,240

12,929 Oceania 11,567 12,409 13,874 13,224 13,224

4,291 Others 4,152 4,302 4,302 4,302 4,302

1,112,755 Total 1,110,904 1,096,612 1,145,680 1,231,599 1,183,634


340,930 North America 358,418 358,216 349,064 375,472 356,716

75,990 South America 79,414 84,765 89,288 93,615 93,715

151,855 European Union 150,080 152,000 150,010 152,885 152,885

10,845 Other Europe 10,752 10,798 10,662 10,774 10,774


38,003 Middle East 38,699 38,285 39,184 39,729 39,529

21,187 North Africa 24,679 25,607 24,190 23,760 23,760


195,705 East Asia 207,665 221,586 228,062 244,101 243,101

42,673 South Asia 38,549 45,329 44,868 47,493 46,693

30,300 Southeast Asia 31,175 33,692 34,145 36,450 36,450

7,897 Oceania 7,702 7,649 7,577 8,302 8,002

8,953 Others 8,888 9,248 9,508 9,723 9,723

1,079,689 Total 1,103,098 1,129,406 1,138,880 1,199,704 1,176,998

Ending Stocks none

58,626 North America 55,725 38,345 30,586 57,144 38,800

16,796 South America 15,002 15,101 17,488 18,873 17,593

20,844 European Union 25,854 16,753 13,302 11,727 10,949

1,538 Other Europe 1,669 1,658 1,323 1,611 1,611


8,540 Middle East 9,325 7,586 8,213 7,110 7,110

2,741 North Africa 5,387 4,908 4,404 4,200 4,200


55,941 East Asia 55,878 53,346 63,154 63,972 62,072

2,086 South Asia 1,670 2,592 2,017 1,716 1,987

4,448 Southeast Asia 3,379 3,516 4,207 3,977 3,977

3,352 Oceania 2,785 1,787 2,209 1,956 2,006

833 Others 775 814 763 687 687

195,142 Total 195,577 162,331 162,760 187,744 165,488



July 2012

World Corn Trade


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

TY Exports

15,50015,00014,50015,19816,9738,466 Argentina

12,50011,50011,00011,5838,6237,178 Brazil

8005004001,657184366 Canada

2,0002,0003,1001,0781,5191,743 EU-27

2,5002,2003,8003,3761,9172,551 India

1,5001,6001,7001,2031,3881,862 Paraguay

1,5001,5002,200374271,331 Russia

1,8001,8001,7002,0041,3431,467 Serbia

2,0002,0001,5002,8391,5862,111 South Africa

14,00014,00014,0005,0085,0725,497 Ukraine

3,3603,3603,0902,6614,2363,644 Others

57,46055,46056,99046,64443,26836,216 Subtotal

40,00048,00040,00045,25449,72147,758 United States

97,460103,46096,99091,89892,98983,974 World Total

none

TY Imports

2,9002,9002,8002,6832,5691,903 Algeria

8008001,1002876991,092 Brazil

5,0007,0005,0009791,29647 China

3,7003,7003,7003,5043,6513,068 Colombia

750750700663626586 Costa Rica

850850850812736708 Cuba

1,1001,1001,0501,0011,071973 Dominican Republic

5,2005,2005,0005,8035,8325,031 Egypt

5,0007,0006,3007,3592,9312,754 EU-27

2,0002,0002,0003,0411,321317 Indonesia

3,5003,5003,6003,5004,3003,600 Iran

1,5501,3001,0001,0291,053846 Israel

15,50016,00015,00015,64815,97916,533 Japan

8,0008,5007,0008,1078,4617,188 Korea, South

3,1003,1003,1002,8093,1072,447 Malaysia

9,0009,30010,5008,2578,2987,764 Mexico

1,9001,9001,8001,7381,8021,566 Morocco

2,1002,0002,0001,9391,7821,429 Peru

2,1002,1002,0001,9331,8721,482 Saudi Arabia

1,7001,7001,6001,6592,0241,784 Syria

4,3004,3004,2004,1834,5214,532 Taiwan

900900800677866646 Tunisia

1,0001,000500456527516 Turkey

1,7001,7001,7001,2512,1981,336 Venezuela

1,5001,5001,2001,0001,6001,250 Vietnam

9,8359,83510,1729,92411,45912,456 Others

94,98599,93594,67290,24290,58181,854 Subtotal

1,7253,1251,7689722,1711,783 Unaccounted

750400550684237337 United States

97,460103,46096,99091,89892,98983,974 World Total


July 2012

World Corn Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

Production

25,00025,00021,00023,60023,30015,500 Argentina

67,00067,00070,00057,40056,10051,000 Brazil

13,00012,60010,70011,7149,56110,592 Canada

195,000195,000192,780177,245163,974165,914 China

5,8005,8005,5006,5006,2806,645 Egypt

65,47264,15064,63655,93456,94762,321 EU-27

22,00022,00021,30021,73016,72019,730 India

8,5008,5008,7006,8006,9008,700 Indonesia

21,00021,00019,00021,00620,37424,226 Mexico

9,4109,4109,2508,8008,9507,970 Nigeria

7,2007,2007,1397,2716,2316,853 Philippines

7,8007,8006,6803,0753,9636,682 Russia

7,0007,0006,3006,8006,4006,130 Serbia

13,00013,00011,50010,92413,42012,567 South Africa

24,00024,00022,83811,91910,48611,447 Ukraine

84,59084,79082,46282,23277,20977,741 Others

575,772574,250559,785512,950486,815494,018 Subtotal

329,453375,683313,918316,165332,549307,142 United States

905,225949,933873,703829,115819,364801,160 World Total

none

Total Consumption

8,6008,6007,7007,3006,9006,400 Argentina

56,00056,00054,00049,50047,00045,500 Brazil

12,80012,60010,80011,43411,60611,687 Canada

201,000201,000188,000180,000165,000153,000 China

11,00011,00010,80012,50012,00011,100 Egypt

69,50069,50067,50062,50059,30061,600 EU-27

19,20020,00017,60018,10015,10017,000 India

10,40010,40010,0009,8008,8008,900 Indonesia

15,50016,00015,00015,70016,30016,700 Japan

8,1008,6007,2008,2148,3947,894 Korea, South

29,70029,70029,70029,00030,20032,400 Mexico

9,4509,4509,2508,8008,8007,900 Nigeria

7,4007,4007,3007,2006,5007,300 Philippines

11,10011,10010,70010,65010,3009,900 South Africa

9,3009,3008,8006,5005,7005,850 Ukraine

136,440136,090129,939127,824123,360120,387 Others

618,045621,746589,100563,869541,935525,365 Subtotal

282,461301,639279,540285,005281,590259,272 United States

900,506923,385868,640848,874823,525784,637 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

12,87613,87613,07610,2769,98912,084 Brazil

1,5781,6781,6781,2781,7581,833 Canada

57,89559,79559,09549,41551,30251,183 China

4,2315,0095,2594,9235,2086,149 EU-27

1,6301,9301,3551,5651,3893,559 Mexico

2,6682,6932,7433,4185,1694,113 South Africa

1,9591,9591,2091,121672937 Ukraine

21,20521,01722,02023,67125,20325,869 Others

104,042107,957106,43595,667100,690105,727 Subtotal

30,05147,78122,93928,64443,38042,504 United States

134,093155,738129,374124,311144,070148,231 World Total

July 2012

Regional Corn Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Jun

2012/13

Jul

2012/13

TY Imports none

9,945 North America 10,496 9,915 11,950 10,200 10,250

2,491 Central America 2,537 2,889 2,925 3,050 3,050

8,238 South America 9,469 8,336 9,715 9,565 9,665

2,754 European Union 2,931 7,359 6,300 7,000 5,000


9,462 Middle East 11,215 9,945 10,225 11,250 11,500

9,574 North Africa 11,725 11,265 10,750 11,350 11,350


28,481 East Asia 30,386 29,063 31,330 35,930 32,930

5,391 Southeast Asia 6,709 7,541 6,950 7,100 7,100

2,011 Caribbean 2,139 2,169 2,280 2,325 2,325

536 Others 576 583 597 575 575

82,191 Total 90,818 90,926 95,222 100,335 95,735

Production none

341,960 North America 362,484 348,885 343,618 409,283 363,453

76,109 South America 89,367 90,823 100,862 102,805 102,605

62,321 European Union 56,947 55,934 64,636 64,150 65,472

9,951 Other Europe 9,674 10,094 9,494 10,294 10,294


6,748 Middle East 6,305 6,039 5,968 6,393 6,393

6,846 North Africa 6,481 6,701 5,701 6,001 6,001


167,580 East Asia 165,379 178,872 194,422 196,651 196,651

24,780 South Asia 21,790 26,801 26,370 27,070 27,070

3,222 Central America 3,041 3,188 3,188 3,188 3,188

27,485 Southeast Asia 25,212 26,692 29,121 30,000 30,000

1,191 Others 1,157 1,180 1,199 1,199 1,199

801,160 Total 819,364 829,115 873,703 949,933 905,225


303,359 North America 323,396 325,439 320,040 343,939 324,961

67,529 South America 70,189 73,948 78,845 82,245 82,345

61,600 European Union 59,300 62,500 67,500 69,500 69,500

8,376 Other Europe 8,354 8,454 8,430 8,585 8,585


16,005 Middle East 16,885 16,885 16,985 18,135 18,385

16,125 North Africa 17,650 18,525 16,925 17,325 17,325


184,015 East Asia 195,823 209,905 216,080 231,580 230,580

22,050 South Asia 20,270 23,271 22,770 25,070 24,270

30,043 Southeast Asia 30,943 33,443 33,900 36,200 36,200

5,800 Central America 5,700 5,925 6,125 6,250 6,250

3,235 Others 3,225 3,360 3,420 3,540 3,540

782,790 Total 816,850 850,027 863,829 918,379 897,951

Ending Stocks none

47,896 North America 46,527 31,487 25,972 51,389 33,259

15,426 South America 13,913 13,233 16,115 17,225 16,145

6,149 European Union 5,208 4,923 5,259 5,009 4,231

1,198 Other Europe 1,372 1,359 1,065 1,349 1,349


4,073 Middle East 4,439 3,551 2,724 2,192 2,192

2,200 North Africa 2,391 2,156 1,672 1,688 1,688


54,302 East Asia 54,093 52,007 61,579 62,280 60,380

1,498 South Asia 992 1,078 773 800 1,068

4,443 Southeast Asia 3,376 3,512 4,203 3,973 3,973

613 Central America 498 580 528 496 496

259 Others 312 245 269 218 218

148,231 Total 144,070 124,311 129,374 155,738 134,093



July 2012

World Barley Trade (Working Statistics)


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

TY Exports

4,2004,0003,3001,531549871 Argentina

4,1003,8004,5004,0883,8463,278 Australia

1,1001,3001,3001,0521,2031,618 Canada

10101591317 China

555474 Croatia

1010105147 Egypt

2,4002,4002,8004,5942,3892,374 EU-27

252525303137 India

400400800224354314 Kazakhstan

555521 Kenya

50502574331 Moldova

2,0002,2003,2009692,0863,598 Russia

1010592211 Serbia

150150150508013 Turkey

2,0002,5002,3002,4465,7525,871 Ukraine

00032410 Others

16,46516,86518,44015,02617,13618,045 Subtotal

200200150181152158 United States

16,66517,06518,59015,20717,28818,203 World Total

none

TY Imports

3003006002626164 Algeria

350350350345346403 Brazil

2,2002,2002,0001,6562,3411,551 China

250250250251237211 Colombia

20020035028666156 EU-27

3003001,1005008001,400 Iran

200450350287491367 Israel

1,3001,3001,3001,3591,4111,346 Japan

500500700550432514 Jordan

250250250317283252 Kuwait

200200200179582296 Libya

800800700222248263 Morocco

4002002004111339 Russia

7,0007,0007,5006,2007,2007,700 Saudi Arabia

200200200330299131 United Arab Emirates

1,5251,7251,7651,8721,7152,516 Others

15,97516,22517,81515,02716,47017,309 Subtotal

39054047532516322 Unaccounted

300300300148302572 United States

16,66517,06518,59015,20717,28818,203 World Total


July 2012

World Barley Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

Production

1,6001,6001,3501,5002,400560 Algeria

5,4005,4004,0002,9501,3562,110 Argentina

8,0008,0008,5008,1457,8657,997 Australia

2,0002,0001,8001,9662,1232,212 Belarus

8,5009,0007,7607,6059,51711,781 Canada

2,6002,6002,5001,9722,3182,823 China

1,5801,5801,5921,5251,5691,484 Ethiopia

53,59353,59351,51053,44062,14965,509 EU-27

1,6501,6501,6601,3501,6901,200 India

3,4003,4002,9003,2103,4461,547 Iran

1,8002,0002,5931,3132,5192,059 Kazakhstan

1,1001,1002,3402,5703,8001,272 Morocco

15,50016,50016,9358,35017,88123,148 Russia

5,8005,8007,0005,9006,5005,700 Turkey

6,0007,5009,0988,48411,83312,612 Ukraine

8,6528,6528,7748,6498,8407,803 Others

127,175130,375130,312118,929145,806149,817 Subtotal

4,7184,3543,3923,9254,9495,230 United States

131,893134,729133,704122,854150,755155,047 World Total

none

Total Consumption

1,8001,8001,7001,5001,3501,100 Algeria

4,0004,3003,8004,3004,5004,000 Australia

2,0002,0002,0002,0002,2002,200 Belarus

7,3007,6007,3007,5848,5049,065 Canada

4,5004,5004,3004,1504,4004,200 China

52,20052,20051,70056,40056,50057,000 EU-27

1,7001,7001,5501,3501,5001,000 India

3,8003,8003,9003,7003,7003,550 Iran

1,5001,5001,5251,5501,5501,550 Japan

1,5251,7251,7251,4752,0001,850 Kazakhstan

2,1002,1003,1003,0502,9001,700 Morocco

13,70014,30014,3009,50016,65017,100 Russia

7,0257,0256,5256,3257,4257,425 Saudi Arabia

6,1006,1006,6506,0005,9005,700 Turkey

4,8005,6005,6006,0005,6005,900 Ukraine

14,35514,80515,02515,06615,12114,974 Others

128,786131,586131,800131,540140,054138,945 Subtotal

4,5734,1364,1824,5374,6045,127 United States

133,359135,722135,982136,077144,658144,072 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

1,7861,7861,6861,3361,247184 Algeria

1,1561,1561,2561,0561,8752,425 Australia

9019017511,4412,5832,843 Canada

4,2814,2815,0887,87815,53210,916 EU-27

1,2781,2781,3781,1781,268622 Iran

1,0711,1218711,3862,3953,813 Russia

2,2032,2032,2281,2532,0782,203 Saudi Arabia

6,2646,6647,4026,7737,9766,434 Others

18,94019,39020,66022,30134,95429,440 Subtotal

1,5621,4621,3081,9452,5151,932 United States

20,50220,85221,96824,24637,46931,372 World Total

July 2012

Regional Barley Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Jun

2012/13

Jul

2012/13

TY Imports none

737 North America 373 227 425 500 500

810 South America 772 905 850 835 835

156 European Union 66 286 350 200 200

82 Other Europe 158 242 135 155 155


11,681 Middle East 10,046 8,645 10,560 9,150 8,700

973 North Africa 1,215 959 1,850 1,500 1,500

125 Sub-Saharan Africa 59 76 65 70 70

3,000 East Asia 3,861 3,108 3,425 3,625 3,625

48 South Asia 10 8 30 30 30

0 Oceania 17 15 5 5 5

17,881 Total 16,772 15,175 18,115 16,525 16,275

Production none

17,822 North America 14,966 12,311 11,715 13,917 13,781

3,156 South America 2,443 3,869 5,051 6,630 6,630

65,509 European Union 62,149 53,440 51,510 53,593 53,593

1,543 Other Europe 1,406 1,309 1,330 1,324 1,324


8,004 Middle East 11,320 11,096 11,665 10,575 10,575

2,347 North Africa 7,324 4,572 4,435 3,495 3,495


3,210 East Asia 2,646 2,215 2,800 2,910 2,910

1,607 South Asia 2,330 1,957 2,192 2,257 2,257

8,397 Oceania 8,265 8,545 8,900 8,400 8,400

155,047 Total 150,755 122,854 133,704 134,729 131,893


15,042 North America 13,858 12,871 12,207 12,486 12,623

2,703 South America 2,933 2,937 2,920 3,195 3,195

57,000 European Union 56,500 56,400 51,700 52,200 52,200

1,630 Other Europe 1,552 1,537 1,492 1,450 1,450


20,556 Middle East 20,403 19,673 20,751 20,146 19,696

3,987 North Africa 5,847 5,845 6,125 5,175 5,175


6,006 East Asia 6,195 5,900 6,075 6,250 6,250

1,438 South Asia 2,163 1,967 2,112 2,337 2,337

4,400 Oceania 4,900 4,725 4,200 4,700 4,400

143,441 Total 144,404 134,487 134,882 135,191 132,978

Ending Stocks none

5,112 North America 5,231 3,581 2,167 2,434 2,534

766 South America 601 851 632 902 702

10,916 European Union 15,532 7,878 5,088 4,281 4,281

281 Other Europe 249 235 195 209 209


4,389 Middle East 4,837 3,958 5,407 4,836 4,836

511 North Africa 2,952 2,694 2,694 2,504 2,504


940 East Asia 1,239 681 816 1,091 1,091

87 South Asia 224 197 282 207 207

2,461 Oceania 1,915 1,089 1,294 1,199 1,199

31,372 Total 37,469 24,246 21,968 20,852 20,502



July 2012

World Sorghum Trade


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

TY Exports

2,2002,2001,8001,8931,507907 Argentina

1,0001,0001,2005753501,360 Australia

757575684132 China

7575757500 Ethiopia

5050253112454 India

707060605050 Nigeria

202020184848 South Africa

6060607711847 Others

3,5503,5503,3152,7972,2382,498 Subtotal

3,5003,5001,3003,7944,0743,598 United States

7,0507,0504,6156,5916,3126,096 World Total

none

TY Imports

600600600729568404 Chile

300300300391212202 Colombia

50503035125140 Ethiopia

300300125922766 EU-27

1,4501,4501,4001,4181,6491,629 Japan

3,0003,0001,1002,3812,5272,496 Mexico

1251255991444 Morocco

505050506050 Niger

400400300200400300 Sudan

757575977172 Taiwan

295295385386579399 Others

6,6456,6454,3706,7086,3425,762 Subtotal

405405243-118-30331 Unaccounted

002103 United States

7,0507,0504,6156,5916,3126,096 World Total


July 2012

World Sorghum Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

Production

4,8004,8004,0004,4003,6291,660 Argentina

2,5002,5002,6502,0681,5082,692 Australia

2,8002,8002,2002,3141,8542,004 Brazil

1,8001,8001,6001,9501,5221,875 Burkina

6506501,200820600590 Chad

2,6502,6502,6002,4561,6771,837 China

900900900900900900 Egypt

3,5503,5503,7813,4652,0842,619 Ethiopia

6,7006,7006,1007,0006,7007,250 India

850850850925980930 Mali

6,8006,8006,1257,3596,2507,067 Mexico

1,0001,0007001,3007391,214 Niger

6,9006,9006,8506,7506,60011,000 Nigeria

3,8003,8002,0894,6062,6304,192 Sudan

740740788800710551 Tanzania

6,7436,7436,6266,5076,1546,320 Others

53,18353,18349,05953,62044,53752,701 Subtotal

8,6368,5095,4478,7799,72811,998 United States

61,81961,69254,50662,39954,26564,699 World Total

none

Total Consumption

2,5002,5002,3502,2501,9001,100 Argentina

1,5051,5051,4051,4051,2051,805 Australia

2,7002,7002,2752,2751,8751,875 Brazil

1,8001,8001,6001,8001,6951,700 Burkina

2,7502,7502,4502,2001,9002,000 China

950950950900900950 Egypt

3,6003,6003,7003,2002,4002,700 Ethiopia

8858857601,550630905 EU-27

6,6006,6006,3006,8006,6007,200 India

1,4501,4501,4001,4601,6501,600 Japan

850850850925980930 Mali

9,5009,5007,7009,4009,7008,600 Mexico

1,0501,0508501,2509001,200 Niger

6,8506,8506,8006,7006,55010,950 Nigeria

4,1004,1002,7504,5003,4004,500 Sudan

8,9308,9309,2509,0978,1038,124 Others

56,78156,78151,68955,69550,69155,943 Subtotal

4,8264,5724,1915,3125,8598,319 United States

61,60761,35355,88061,00756,55064,262 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

350350450600152194 Argentina

434434539494681678 Australia

246246141211171188 Brazil

387387552467275456 China

23323330827247238 Ethiopia

5785782787534131,336 Mexico

339339244610309684 Sudan

1,0101,0071,1071,5741,1901,407 Others

3,5773,5743,6194,9813,2385,181 Subtotal

9391,0646856971,0481,390 United States

4,5164,6384,3045,6784,2866,571 World Total

July 2012

Regional Sorghum Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Jun

2012/13

Jul

2012/13

TY Imports none

2,499 North America 2,527 2,382 1,102 3,000 3,000

665 South America 848 1,214 960 960 960

66 European Union 7 922 125 300 300

0 Other Europe 17 0 5 5 5

81 Middle East 48 120 30 30 30

45 North Africa 166 120 40 150 150


1,719 East Asia 1,806 1,523 1,490 1,540 1,540

14 Southeast Asia 16 17 10 15 15

4 Others 35 21 5 5 5

5,765 Total 6,342 6,709 4,372 6,645 6,645

Production none

19,065 North America 15,978 16,138 11,572 15,309 15,436

298 Central America 326 329 329 329 329

128 Caribbean 128 128 128 128 128

4,719 South America 6,153 7,351 6,892 8,282 8,282

517 European Union 621 626 670 592 592

654 Middle East 581 807 640 640 640

915 North Africa 915 915 915 915 915


1,857 East Asia 1,697 2,476 2,620 2,670 2,670

7,395 South Asia 6,845 7,145 6,245 6,845 6,845


2,692 Oceania 1,508 2,068 2,650 2,500 2,500

0 Others 0 0 0 0 0

64,699 Total 54,265 62,399 54,506 61,692 61,819


16,919 North America 15,559 14,712 11,891 14,072 14,326

315 Central America 325 325 325 320 320

128 Caribbean 128 128 128 128 128

4,766 South America 5,350 6,274 6,272 6,817 6,817

905 European Union 630 1,550 760 885 885

749 Middle East 669 914 675 675 675

965 North Africa 1,012 1,066 970 1,090 1,090


3,699 East Asia 3,643 3,779 3,955 4,295 4,295

7,349 South Asia 6,780 6,955 6,450 6,750 6,750


1,805 Oceania 1,205 1,405 1,405 1,505 1,505

0 Others 17 0 5 5 5

64,458 Total 56,247 61,024 55,581 60,592 60,846

Ending Stocks none

2,726 North America 1,461 1,450 963 1,642 1,517

27 Central America 28 34 33 37 37

491 South America 393 867 632 642 642

34 European Union 24 17 22 24 24

62 Middle East 22 35 30 25 25

29 North Africa 43 57 37 7 7


578 East Asia 397 549 629 469 469

181 South Asia 154 327 102 149 152

678 Oceania 681 494 539 434 434

5 Others 3 4 4 4 4

6,571 Total 4,286 5,678 4,304 4,638 4,516



July 2012

World Oats Trade


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

TY Exports

555615 Argentina

200200150211211161 Australia

555949 Brazil

1,6001,7001,6001,4971,5391,792 Canada

1001001001293731 Chile

100100150113216103 EU-27

555142 Russia

5574206 Others

2,0202,1202,0221,9702,0322,109 Subtotal


2,0602,1602,0622,0072,0702,147 World Total

none

TY Imports

000500 Albania

000010 Algeria

555532 Bosnia and Herzegovina

202015182114 Canada

505050585739 China

555222 Colombia

101010111114 Ecuador

555624 EU-27

606060645646 Japan

7575751034682 Mexico

15152510348 Norway

252525252133 South Africa

505050494952 Switzerland

555506 Turkey

55511411 Uruguay

005835 Others

330330340380310318 Subtotal

13013012215915342 Unaccounted

1,6001,7001,6001,4681,6071,787 United States

2,0602,1602,0622,0072,0702,147 World Total


July 2012

World Oats Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

Production

14014014014014080 Algeria

400400345660182291 Argentina

1,6501,6501,6501,1411,1621,160 Australia

600600800442552605 Belarus

370370370379253239 Brazil

2,9503,2503,0002,4802,9064,273 Canada

560560500564381344 Chile

580580600525580530 China

7,8007,8007,8767,4468,5798,935 EU-27

200200258134204138 Kazakhstan

220220220299277328 Norway

5,0005,0005,3343,2185,4015,835 Russia

120120120120120120 Serbia

210210210204218196 Turkey

550550550458731944 Ukraine

471471470466485485 Others

21,82122,12122,44318,67622,17124,503 Subtotal

9471,0897791,1781,3511,294 United States

22,76823,21023,22219,85423,52225,797 World Total

none

Total Consumption

14014014014114080 Algeria

400400350650200300 Argentina

1,4501,4501,3509009751,035 Australia

575575775475575600 Belarus

375375360370250225 Brazil

1,4001,4501,5501,5291,7531,766 Canada

450450400450350325 Chile

625625625625625575 China

7,7007,7007,6007,7508,1008,500 EU-27

225225225130210135 Kazakhstan

190190215185215210 Mexico

245245245295320320 Norway

5,1005,1005,0003,4505,5005,600 Russia

210210210210210210 Turkey

550550550475725925 Ukraine

639639639646622608 Others

20,37120,43420,33918,27820,83921,438 Subtotal

2,5212,6822,5562,7893,0112,968 United States

22,89223,11622,89521,06723,85024,406 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

646469747089 Argentina

309259309159126147 Australia

686843185174 Belarus

6047546347691,1701,527 Canada

11411410984126114 China

9499499448131,224972 EU-27

391391496167397499 Russia

192192230239188203 Others

2,6912,7912,8342,3233,3523,625 Subtotal

8178467989821,1661,221 United States

3,5083,6373,6323,3054,5184,846 World Total

July 2012

Regional Oats Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Jun

2012/13

Jul

2012/13

TY Imports none

1,883 North America 1,674 1,589 1,690 1,795 1,695

32 South America 19 24 25 20 20


62 Other Europe 87 71 80 70 70


6 Middle East 0 5 5 5 5

0 North Africa 1 0 0 0 0


85 East Asia 113 122 110 110 110

0 Oceania 0 0 0 0 0

2,105 Total 1,917 1,848 1,940 2,030 1,930

Production none

5,715 North America 4,387 3,769 3,894 4,454 4,012

897 South America 857 1,644 1,256 1,371 1,371

8,935 European Union 8,579 7,446 7,876 7,800 7,800

605 Other Europe 554 576 497 497 497


196 Middle East 218 204 210 210 210

110 North Africa 170 170 170 170 170


532 East Asia 582 527 602 582 582

1,235 Oceania 1,237 1,216 1,725 1,725 1,725

25,797 Total 23,522 19,854 23,222 23,210 22,768


4,944 North America 4,979 4,503 4,321 4,322 4,111

896 South America 857 1,538 1,171 1,286 1,286

8,500 European Union 8,100 7,750 7,600 7,700 7,700

647 Other Europe 655 633 577 577 577


210 Middle East 210 210 210 210 210

110 North Africa 170 171 170 170 170


625 East Asia 680 685 691 690 690

1,110 Oceania 1,050 975 1,425 1,525 1,525

24,382 Total 23,781 21,070 22,790 23,006 22,795

Ending Stocks none

2,756 North America 2,343 1,756 1,437 1,605 1,426

113 South America 95 150 109 104 104

972 European Union 1,224 813 944 949 949

58 Other Europe 47 63 63 53 53


2 Middle East 10 9 14 19 19

1 North Africa 1 1 1 1 1


116 East Asia 131 95 116 118 118

147 Oceania 126 159 309 259 309

4,846 Total 4,518 3,305 3,632 3,637 3,508



July 2012

World Rye Trade


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

TY Exports

100100751502550 Belarus

15015012522114276 Canada

75757571136114 EU-27

100100150211114 Russia

5552936 Ukraine

000300 Others

430430430468407260 Subtotal


435435433471411266 World Total

none

TY Imports

000000 Albania

50501003668 EU-27

10101019911 Israel

1001007510110357 Japan

5551177 Korea, South

101010121411 Norway

555264 Switzerland

005151411 Others

180180210332149109 Subtotal

10510573-913349 Unaccounted

150150150148129108 United States

435435433471411266 World Total


July 2012

World Rye Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Jun

2012/13

Jul

none

Production

1,5001,5001,5007351,2271,492 Belarus

240265195232280316 Canada

7,4007,4006,9038,0109,9529,262 EU-27

505028427540 Kazakhstan

3,0003,0002,9691,6424,3334,505 Russia

350350350366343247 Turkey

4504505504649541,051 Ukraine

155155160173182205 Others

13,14513,17012,65511,66417,34617,118 Subtotal

192182161189178203 United States

13,33713,35212,81611,85317,52417,321 World Total

none

Total Consumption

404045405555 Argentina

1,3001,3001,3006501,3001,400 Belarus

8010075129140152 Canada

7,7007,7007,5508,2009,5508,750 EU-27

100100751059065 Japan

505030407540 Kazakhstan

262626454059 Norway

2,8002,8002,9001,8504,3254,400 Russia

350350350350340275 Turkey

450450600650800800 Ukraine

119119120129124127 Others

13,12913,14913,12712,22316,90916,181 Subtotal

321318319330273292 United States

13,45013,46713,44612,55317,18216,473 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

30430420479144242 Belarus

46513651139123 Canada

5285288531,4501,7271,424 EU-27

14141414185 Japan

269269169250308312 Russia

383838331714 Turkey

129129134189411313 Ukraine

666977 Others

1,3341,3391,4542,0752,7712,440 Subtotal


1,3521,3621,4652,0952,7952,453 World Total

July 2012

Regional Rye Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Jun

2012/13

Jul

2012/13

TY Imports none

108 North America 129 148 150 150 150

0 South America 0 0 0 0 0


18 Other Europe 22 15 15 15 15


17 Middle East 9 19 15 10 10


64 East Asia 110 112 80 105 105

0 Oceania 0 0 0 0 0

217 Total 278 480 360 330 330

Production none

519 North America 458 421 356 447 432

63 South America 61 45 50 45 45

9,262 European Union 9,952 8,010 6,903 7,400 7,400

119 Other Europe 98 105 87 87 87


247 Middle East 343 366 350 350 350


0 East Asia 0 0 0 0 0

20 Oceania 20 20 20 20 20

17,321 Total 17,524 11,853 12,816 13,352 13,337


444 North America 413 459 394 418 401

63 South America 61 45 50 45 45

8,750 European Union 9,550 8,200 7,550 7,700 7,700

137 Other Europe 119 119 103 102 102


286 Middle East 349 369 360 360 360


72 East Asia 97 116 80 105 105

20 Oceania 20 17 20 20 20

16,415 Total 17,112 12,518 13,390 13,353 13,336

Ending Stocks none

136 North America 163 71 47 74 64

0 South America 0 0 0 0 0

1,424 European Union 1,727 1,450 853 528 528

1 Other Europe 1 1 0 0 0


14 Middle East 17 33 38 38 38


5 East Asia 18 14 14 14 14

0 Oceania 0 0 0 0 0

2,453 Total 2,795 2,095 1,465 1,362 1,352



July 2012


35

HISTORICAL DATA SERIES FOR SELECTED REGIONS AND COUNTRIES

CONTENTS

European Union: Grain Supply and Demand .............................................. 36 China: Grain Supply and Demand .............................................................. 37 Other Europe: Grain Supply and Demand .................................................. 38 Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand ...................................... 39 Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ............................... 43 Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ................................. 45 Barley Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ............................... 47 Sorghum Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ........................... 48

U.S. Grains: Supply and Distribution……………………………. .... ……..49 Total Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand ................................ 50 World Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand .............................. 51 World Corn and Barley: Supply and Demand ............................................ 52 World Rice: Supply and Demand ............................................................... 53

DG F/SA &F

July 2012

European Union: Grain Supply and Demand

Wheat and Coarse Grains Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares

Area

Harvested

Yield Production Imports Exports Feed Dom.

Consumpti

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

123.4 118.556.512.88.74.825.9 2001/02 18.3

132.6 125.060.018.110.75.026.4 2002/03 18.5

110.6 115.152.49.87.44.524.3 2003/04 11.5

146.9 123.259.214.77.15.726.0 2004/05 27.5

132.4 127.563.015.76.85.125.8 2005/06 23.4

124.9 125.560.213.85.25.124.5 2006/07 14.2

120.1 116.552.412.36.94.924.7 2007/08 12.4

151.1 127.060.525.47.75.726.7 2008/09 18.9

138.8 125.057.522.15.55.425.8 2009/10 16.2

135.7 122.052.522.94.75.226.1 2010/11 11.7

137.4 126.857.516.27.55.425.6 2011/12 13.6

133.1 123.854.016.05.55.424.7 2012/13 12.5

Coarse Grains

150.5 143.8108.16.73.94.533.7 2001/02 22.4

148.4 145.0109.57.64.44.532.8 2002/03 22.6

131.8 145.3109.74.28.24.032.7 2003/04 13.1

166.7 152.6116.64.93.05.033.4 2004/05 25.3

146.8 148.1110.04.42.84.532.7 2005/06 22.4

137.9 148.4110.94.78.14.332.0 2006/07 15.3

136.6 154.9119.64.620.34.232.2 2007/08 12.7

162.1 151.9114.05.63.44.833.6 2008/09 20.8

155.0 150.1112.63.03.04.832.5 2009/10 25.9

140.6 152.0114.36.28.54.630.3 2010/11 16.8

146.0 150.0111.66.36.94.929.9 2011/12 13.3

149.6 152.9114.24.65.64.830.9 2012/13 10.9

Wheat and Coarse Grains

273.9 262.3164.619.412.74.659.6 2001/02 40.7

281.0 270.0169.525.715.04.759.2 2002/03 41.1

242.4 260.4162.114.015.64.257.0 2003/04 24.7

313.6 275.9175.819.610.15.359.4 2004/05 52.8

279.1 275.6173.020.19.64.858.5 2005/06 45.8

262.8 273.9171.118.513.34.756.4 2006/07 29.5

256.7 271.4172.016.927.24.556.9 2007/08 25.2

313.2 278.9174.530.911.25.260.2 2008/09 39.8

293.9 275.1170.125.18.65.058.3 2009/10 42.0

276.3 274.0166.829.113.24.956.4 2010/11 28.4

283.3 276.8169.122.514.45.155.5 2011/12 26.9

282.7 276.6168.220.611.15.155.6 2012/13 23.4

July 2012

China: Grain Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested


Consumpti

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

93.9 108.79.01.51.13.824.6 2001/02 76.6

90.3 105.26.51.70.43.823.9 2002/03 60.4

86.5 104.56.02.83.73.922.0 2003/04 43.3

92.0 102.04.01.26.74.321.6 2004/05 38.8

97.4 101.53.51.41.14.322.8 2005/06 34.5

108.5 102.04.02.80.44.623.6 2006/07 38.6

109.3 106.08.02.80.04.623.7 2007/08 39.1

112.5 105.58.00.70.54.823.6 2008/09 45.8

115.1 107.010.00.91.44.724.3 2009/10 54.4

115.2 110.513.00.90.94.724.3 2010/11 59.1

117.9 120.522.01.03.24.924.2 2011/12 58.7

118.0 122.022.01.02.04.924.3 2012/13 55.7

Coarse Grains

122.4 133.096.38.62.04.527.3 2001/02 85.6

130.6 136.398.415.31.84.727.8 2002/03 66.5

124.0 138.399.17.71.54.626.8 2003/04 45.9

138.3 141.1100.37.62.14.928.0 2004/05 37.6

147.8 147.1103.53.82.35.128.8 2005/06 36.8

159.1 153.6104.95.51.25.130.9 2006/07 38.0

159.2 158.0106.70.91.25.031.9 2007/08 39.4

172.4 161.1108.70.21.75.432.2 2008/09 52.2

169.8 173.2118.70.23.85.133.4 2009/10 52.4

183.4 188.2128.80.22.75.334.6 2010/11 50.1

199.7 196.6131.90.27.15.635.6 2011/12 60.1

202.0 210.1139.90.37.35.536.5 2012/13 59.0


216.3 241.7105.310.13.14.252.0 2001/02 162.2

220.9 241.5104.917.12.24.351.7 2002/03 126.8

210.5 242.8105.110.55.34.348.8 2003/04 89.2

230.2 243.1104.38.88.84.649.6 2004/05 76.4

245.2 248.6107.05.23.44.751.6 2005/06 71.3

267.6 255.6108.98.21.54.954.5 2006/07 76.6

268.5 264.0114.73.71.24.855.6 2007/08 78.5

284.9 266.6116.70.92.15.155.8 2008/09 98.0

284.9 280.2128.71.15.24.957.6 2009/10 106.8

298.6 298.7141.81.13.65.158.8 2010/11 109.2

317.6 317.1153.91.210.35.359.8 2011/12 118.8

320.0 332.1161.91.39.35.360.8 2012/13 114.8

July 2012

Other Europe: Grain Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested


Consumpti

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

4.9 5.90.90.61.83.41.4 2001/02 1.5

4.9 5.60.90.61.43.51.4 2002/03 1.5

3.7 5.30.60.11.53.01.2 2003/04 1.2

5.4 5.80.90.31.54.01.3 2004/05 2.0

4.2 5.70.80.21.53.71.1 2005/06 1.8

4.3 5.30.70.61.53.61.2 2006/07 1.8

4.4 5.50.90.81.93.71.2 2007/08 1.8

4.7 5.61.00.51.74.21.1 2008/09 2.1

4.6 5.50.90.81.73.81.2 2009/10 2.1

3.9 5.40.80.81.73.71.1 2010/11 1.5

4.3 5.60.90.71.84.01.1 2011/12 1.3

4.1 5.60.90.41.83.81.1 2012/13 1.2

Coarse Grains

10.9 11.19.80.20.84.12.7 2001/02 1.4

11.7 11.49.90.60.64.42.7 2002/03 1.8

9.0 10.69.40.10.83.42.7 2003/04 1.0

12.7 12.010.60.60.64.82.7 2004/05 1.6

12.6 12.010.61.40.74.82.6 2005/06 1.5

11.5 11.510.20.90.94.62.5 2006/07 1.5

9.3 10.39.00.11.03.62.6 2007/08 1.4

12.3 10.89.51.90.64.62.6 2008/09 1.5

11.8 10.89.31.70.84.82.4 2009/10 1.7

12.1 10.89.32.20.84.82.5 2010/11 1.7

11.5 10.79.11.90.74.52.5 2011/12 1.3

12.3 10.89.21.90.74.82.6 2012/13 1.6


15.8 17.010.70.82.63.94.1 2001/02 2.9

16.6 17.010.71.22.04.14.1 2002/03 3.3

12.7 16.09.90.22.33.33.9 2003/04 2.3

18.1 17.911.50.92.14.54.0 2004/05 3.7

16.8 17.711.51.62.14.43.8 2005/06 3.3

15.8 16.810.91.52.44.33.7 2006/07 3.3

13.7 15.89.90.92.93.63.8 2007/08 3.2

17.0 16.410.52.42.34.53.8 2008/09 3.6

16.4 16.210.22.52.44.53.7 2009/10 3.8

16.0 16.210.13.02.54.53.6 2010/11 3.1

15.8 16.310.02.52.54.43.6 2011/12 2.7

16.3 16.410.12.32.54.53.7 2012/13 2.8

July 2012

Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested


Consumpti

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

84.7 72.521.622.66.01.945.2 2006/07 13.0

92.4 75.323.922.06.02.046.5 2007/08 14.1

115.5 76.124.538.26.62.351.1 2008/09 21.8

114.0 78.226.037.25.42.253.0 2009/10 25.8

81.1 75.023.713.95.71.746.9 2010/11 23.6

114.4 81.729.438.17.42.349.9 2011/12 25.7

88.6 76.324.123.66.21.847.9 2012/13 20.5

Coarse Grains

59.1 51.435.88.51.02.029.1 2006/07 5.4

54.2 50.635.05.31.02.027.5 2007/08 4.8

79.0 58.141.517.10.72.630.3 2008/09 9.3

67.6 55.039.015.00.42.527.3 2009/10 7.4

47.6 41.928.58.71.22.122.2 2010/11 5.5

79.0 55.239.123.90.82.927.3 2011/12 6.2

75.3 55.138.920.60.92.628.8 2012/13 6.7

July 2012

Millions of Tons/Hectares

Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Wheat)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY ExportsMY

Imports

ProductionYieldCountry Mktg Year

Former Soviet Union - 12

Kazakhstan

17.1 7.62.78.30.01.214.8 2009/10 4.3

9.6 6.21.94.90.00.714.3 2010/11 2.9

22.7 9.04.011.00.01.613.8 2011/12 5.6

13.0 7.52.57.00.01.013.5 2012/13 4.1

Russia

61.8 39.616.818.60.22.326.7 2009/10 14.7

41.5 38.616.04.00.11.921.8 2010/11 13.7

56.2 38.516.021.30.12.324.9 2011/12 10.3

49.0 37.915.512.00.22.024.5 2012/13 9.6

Ukraine

20.9 12.33.39.30.03.16.8 2009/10 2.4

16.8 11.62.84.30.02.76.3 2010/11 3.3

22.1 15.06.15.00.13.36.7 2011/12 5.6

13.0 11.72.84.00.12.55.3 2012/13 3.0

Uzbekistan

6.2 7.51.40.41.74.41.4 2009/10 0.9

6.5 7.71.50.51.64.61.4 2010/11 0.8

6.3 8.01.70.72.74.51.4 2011/12 1.1

6.3 7.71.50.51.84.51.4 2012/13 1.0

Other Former Soviet Union - 12

8.2 11.21.80.73.52.43.4 2009/10 3.5

6.6 10.91.50.23.92.13.2 2010/11 2.8

7.0 11.31.60.14.62.33.1 2011/12 3.1

7.3 11.51.80.14.12.33.2 2012/13 2.8

Total Former Soviet Union - 12

114.0 78.226.037.25.42.253.0 2009/10 25.8

81.1 75.023.713.95.71.746.9 2010/11 23.6

114.4 81.729.438.17.42.349.9 2011/12 25.7

88.6 76.324.123.66.21.847.9 2012/13 20.5

July 2012


Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Barley)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY ExportsMY

Imports



Kazakhstan

2.5 2.01.70.40.01.41.8 2009/10 0.5

1.3 1.51.20.20.10.81.6 2010/11 0.1

2.6 1.71.40.80.01.71.6 2011/12 0.2

1.8 1.51.20.40.01.11.6 2012/13 0.1

Russia

17.9 16.712.22.70.02.37.7 2009/10 2.4

8.4 9.55.50.30.41.75.0 2010/11 1.4

16.9 14.39.83.50.42.27.7 2011/12 0.9

15.5 13.79.32.00.41.98.1 2012/13 1.1

Ukraine

11.8 5.63.96.20.02.45.0 2009/10 1.1

8.5 6.04.42.80.02.04.3 2010/11 0.8

9.1 5.64.02.80.02.53.7 2011/12 1.5

6.0 4.83.22.00.01.83.4 2012/13 0.8

Uzbekistan

0.2 0.30.20.00.03.20.1 2009/10 0.0

0.2 0.30.20.00.03.20.1 2010/11 0.0

0.2 0.30.20.00.03.20.1 2011/12 0.0

0.2 0.30.20.00.13.20.1 2012/13 0.0


3.5 3.62.80.00.12.71.3 2009/10 0.5

3.3 3.42.60.00.22.41.4 2010/11 0.5

3.2 3.42.60.00.22.51.3 2011/12 0.4

3.4 3.42.60.10.22.51.3 2012/13 0.5


36.0 28.120.79.30.22.316.0 2009/10 4.4

21.7 20.713.93.30.71.812.3 2010/11 2.9

32.1 25.318.07.10.62.214.3 2011/12 3.1

26.9 23.716.54.50.71.914.5 2012/13 2.4

July 2012


Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Corn)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY ExportsMY

Imports



Kazakhstan

0.5 0.40.30.00.04.70.1 2009/10 0.0

0.5 0.50.40.00.05.10.1 2010/11 0.1

0.5 0.50.40.00.04.90.1 2011/12 0.0

0.5 0.50.40.00.05.00.1 2012/13 0.0

Russia

4.0 3.73.20.40.03.51.1 2009/10 0.1

3.1 3.22.80.00.13.01.0 2010/11 0.1

6.7 4.53.82.20.14.31.6 2011/12 0.1

7.8 6.15.21.50.14.11.9 2012/13 0.4

Ukraine

10.5 5.75.05.10.05.02.1 2009/10 0.7

11.9 6.55.45.00.04.52.6 2010/11 1.1

22.8 8.87.514.00.16.43.5 2011/12 1.2

24.0 9.37.514.00.15.34.5 2012/13 2.0

Uzbekistan

0.2 0.20.20.00.04.60.0 2009/10 0.0

0.2 0.20.20.00.04.60.0 2010/11 0.0

0.2 0.20.20.00.04.60.0 2011/12 0.0

0.1 0.10.10.00.03.40.0 2012/13 0.0


2.6 2.92.60.10.23.30.8 2009/10 0.7

2.9 2.92.70.20.23.70.8 2010/11 0.6

3.5 3.33.00.30.14.20.8 2011/12 0.7

3.8 3.53.20.40.14.10.9 2012/13 0.7


17.7 12.911.35.60.34.34.1 2009/10 1.5

18.5 13.311.45.20.34.04.6 2010/11 1.9

33.7 17.314.816.50.35.56.1 2011/12 2.0

36.3 19.616.415.90.24.97.5 2012/13 3.0

July 2012

Million Metric Tons/Hectares

Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY ExportsMY

Imports


Wheat Competitors

Argentina

16.9 5.40.111.90.02.66.4 2004/05 1.3

13.8 5.10.09.60.02.55.5 2005/06 0.4

16.3 5.40.110.70.02.66.2 2006/07 0.6

18.6 5.70.111.20.02.86.6 2007/08 2.4

11.0 5.30.06.80.02.15.3 2008/09 1.3

12.0 5.80.05.10.03.04.0 2009/10 2.3

16.1 6.00.19.50.03.54.6 2010/11 3.0

14.5 6.00.110.80.02.95.0 2011/12 0.8

12.0 6.00.16.20.03.04.0 2012/13 0.6

Australia

21.9 6.03.214.70.11.613.4 2004/05 6.7

25.2 6.63.716.00.12.012.5 2005/06 9.4

10.8 7.44.58.70.10.911.8 2006/07 4.2

13.6 6.53.57.50.11.112.6 2007/08 3.9

21.4 7.34.214.70.11.613.5 2008/09 3.4

21.8 4.91.914.80.11.613.9 2009/10 5.6

27.9 6.13.018.70.12.013.6 2010/11 8.8

29.5 6.73.523.00.12.114.1 2011/12 8.7

26.0 6.73.520.50.11.913.5 2012/13 7.6

Canada

24.8 8.23.814.90.32.69.4 2004/05 7.9

25.7 8.23.816.00.32.79.4 2005/06 9.7

25.3 9.04.519.40.32.69.7 2006/07 6.9

20.1 6.82.216.10.42.38.6 2007/08 4.4

28.6 8.03.218.90.42.910.0 2008/09 6.5

26.8 6.92.219.00.42.89.6 2009/10 7.8

23.2 7.72.816.60.42.88.3 2010/11 7.2

25.3 10.45.517.30.43.08.5 2011/12 5.1

26.6 7.92.718.50.42.89.4 2012/13 5.8

Total Wheat Competitors

63.6 19.67.141.50.32.229.2 2004/05 15.9

64.7 19.97.541.70.42.427.3 2005/06 19.4

52.4 21.79.138.90.41.927.7 2006/07 11.6

52.2 18.95.834.80.51.927.8 2007/08 10.6

July 2012


Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY ExportsMY

Imports


61.0 20.67.440.40.52.128.8 2008/09 11.2

60.7 17.74.139.00.52.227.5 2009/10 15.8

67.2 19.85.944.70.62.526.5 2010/11 19.0

69.3 23.19.151.10.52.527.6 2011/12 14.6

64.6 20.66.345.20.52.426.9 2012/13 13.9

India

72.2 72.82.42.10.02.726.6 2004/05 4.1

68.6 70.02.20.80.02.626.5 2005/06 2.0

69.4 73.52.30.16.72.626.4 2006/07 4.5

75.8 76.42.50.02.02.728.0 2007/08 5.8

78.6 70.92.50.00.02.828.2 2008/09 13.4

80.7 78.22.40.10.22.927.8 2009/10 16.1

80.8 81.82.90.10.32.828.5 2010/11 15.4

86.9 81.63.10.80.03.029.4 2011/12 20.0

91.0 85.53.64.50.03.129.8 2012/13 21.0

Turkey

18.5 16.81.02.00.42.28.6 2004/05 1.8

18.5 16.10.43.20.12.28.6 2005/06 1.1

17.5 16.70.82.41.72.08.6 2006/07 1.3

15.5 16.80.81.72.22.07.7 2007/08 0.4

16.8 16.90.72.23.52.27.7 2008/09 1.5

18.5 17.10.84.33.22.47.8 2009/10 1.8

17.0 17.30.83.03.72.18.0 2010/11 2.2

18.8 18.11.43.63.82.47.7 2011/12 3.1

16.5 17.60.73.73.52.17.8 2012/13 1.8

July 2012


Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY ExportsMY

Imports


Argentina

20.5 5.23.514.60.07.42.8 2004/05 1.1

15.8 6.24.49.50.06.52.4 2005/06 1.3

22.5 6.74.815.30.08.02.8 2006/07 1.8

22.0 6.84.914.80.06.53.4 2007/08 2.2

15.5 6.44.510.30.06.22.5 2008/09 1.0

23.3 6.95.016.50.08.52.8 2009/10 0.9

23.6 7.35.316.30.06.73.5 2010/11 0.8

21.0 7.75.613.00.05.83.6 2011/12 1.1

25.0 8.65.816.00.07.43.4 2012/13 1.6

Brazil

35.0 38.532.10.70.53.011.6 2004/05 4.2

41.7 39.533.04.51.13.212.9 2005/06 3.0

51.0 41.034.510.81.43.614.0 2006/07 3.6

58.6 42.536.07.80.74.014.7 2007/08 12.6

51.0 45.538.57.11.13.614.1 2008/09 12.1

56.1 47.040.011.60.44.312.9 2009/10 10.0

57.4 49.542.58.40.84.213.8 2010/11 10.3

70.0 54.046.014.00.84.615.2 2011/12 13.1

67.0 56.047.512.00.84.215.8 2012/13 12.9

China

130.3 131.098.07.60.05.125.4 2004/05 36.6

139.4 137.0101.03.70.15.326.4 2005/06 35.3

151.6 145.0104.05.30.05.328.5 2006/07 36.6

152.3 150.0106.00.50.05.229.5 2007/08 38.4

165.9 153.0108.00.20.05.629.9 2008/09 51.2

164.0 165.0118.00.21.35.331.2 2009/10 51.3

177.2 180.0128.00.11.05.532.5 2010/11 49.4

192.8 188.0131.00.15.05.833.4 2011/12 59.1

195.0 201.0139.00.25.05.734.3 2012/13 57.9

South Africa

11.7 9.75.02.10.43.63.2 2004/05 3.2

6.9 8.24.00.50.93.42.0 2005/06 2.3

7.3 8.64.40.51.12.52.9 2006/07 1.7

13.2 9.64.32.20.04.03.3 2007/08 3.1

12.6 9.94.31.70.04.32.9 2008/09 4.1

13.4 10.34.62.10.04.13.3 2009/10 5.2

July 2012


Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY ExportsMY

Imports


10.9 10.75.02.40.43.82.9 2010/11 3.4

11.5 10.75.01.50.03.63.2 2011/12 2.7

13.0 11.15.12.00.04.13.2 2012/13 2.7

Total Corn Competitors

197.5 184.4138.625.00.94.643.0 2004/05 45.1

203.8 190.9142.418.32.14.743.7 2005/06 41.8

232.4 201.3147.731.92.64.848.2 2006/07 43.6

246.1 208.9151.225.30.84.850.9 2007/08 56.3

245.0 214.8155.319.31.25.049.4 2008/09 68.4

256.8 229.2167.630.31.75.150.1 2009/10 67.3

269.2 247.5180.827.32.25.152.7 2010/11 63.9

295.3 260.4187.628.65.85.355.4 2011/12 76.1

300.0 276.7197.430.25.85.356.7 2012/13 75.0

July 2012


Barley Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY ExportsMY

Imports


Australia

7.7 3.52.54.30.01.74.6 2004/05 1.9

9.5 3.52.55.30.02.24.4 2005/06 2.6

4.3 4.02.91.90.01.04.2 2006/07 1.0

7.2 3.12.13.40.01.54.9 2007/08 1.7

8.0 4.02.93.20.01.65.0 2008/09 2.4

7.9 4.53.33.90.01.84.4 2009/10 1.9

8.1 4.33.04.70.02.23.7 2010/11 1.1

8.5 3.82.54.50.02.14.0 2011/12 1.3

8.0 4.02.74.10.02.13.8 2012/13 1.2

Canada

12.6 10.18.81.20.13.33.8 2004/05 3.4

11.7 9.68.42.30.03.23.6 2005/06 3.3

9.6 10.28.81.20.03.03.2 2006/07 1.5

11.0 7.96.63.00.12.74.0 2007/08 1.6

11.8 9.17.71.50.03.43.5 2008/09 2.8

9.5 8.57.31.30.03.32.9 2009/10 2.6

7.6 7.66.41.20.03.22.4 2010/11 1.4

7.8 7.36.21.20.13.32.4 2011/12 0.8

8.5 7.36.31.10.13.22.6 2012/13 0.9

EU-27

64.1 54.638.63.30.34.713.7 2004/05 11.1

54.8 54.138.23.30.14.013.8 2005/06 8.5

56.2 55.738.73.50.24.113.8 2006/07 5.8

57.5 54.238.73.80.34.213.8 2007/08 5.7

65.5 57.041.53.60.34.514.5 2008/09 10.9

62.1 56.541.51.10.14.513.9 2009/10 15.5

53.4 56.441.24.90.24.312.5 2010/11 7.9

51.5 51.736.53.00.44.312.0 2011/12 5.1

53.6 52.237.02.40.24.312.6 2012/13 4.3

July 2012


Sorghum Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY ExportsMY

Imports


Argentina

2.9 2.62.40.40.05.20.6 2004/05 0.4

2.3 2.32.10.20.04.70.5 2005/06 0.2

2.8 1.71.51.10.04.70.6 2006/07 0.2

2.9 1.21.01.20.04.70.6 2007/08 0.7

1.7 1.11.01.10.03.70.5 2008/09 0.2

3.6 1.91.71.80.04.80.8 2009/10 0.2

4.4 2.32.11.70.04.41.0 2010/11 0.6

4.0 2.42.21.80.04.01.0 2011/12 0.5

4.8 2.52.32.40.04.61.1 2012/13 0.4

Australia

2.0 1.81.80.20.02.70.8 2004/05 0.1

1.9 1.91.90.10.02.50.8 2005/06 0.0

1.3 1.21.20.10.02.10.6 2006/07 0.0

3.8 2.22.20.80.04.00.9 2007/08 0.8

2.7 1.81.81.00.03.50.8 2008/09 0.7

1.5 1.21.20.30.03.00.5 2009/10 0.7

2.1 1.41.40.90.03.10.7 2010/11 0.5

2.7 1.41.41.20.04.10.6 2011/12 0.5

2.5 1.51.51.10.03.90.6 2012/13 0.4

July 2012

U.S. Grains Supply and Distribution: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats, Rye, and Rice

Thousand Metric Tons/Hectares

Area

Harvested

Yield Rough

Production

Production Imports TY Imports Exports TY Exports Feed Dom.

Consumption

Domestic

Consumption

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

23,46630,7103,58935,97735,0762,5712,63860,062nr319,271 2010/11

20,21332,2644,59228,10028,5323,1003,13054,413nr318,496 2011/12

18,06533,2845,44332,50032,6593,2003,26660,529nr319,759 2012/13

Corn

28,644285,005121,73745,25446,599684703316,165nr1032,960 2010/11

22,939279,540115,57540,00040,642550559313,918nr933,986 2011/12

30,051282,461121,92640,00040,642750762329,453nr935,957 2012/13

Sorghum

6975,3123,1523,7943,819118,779nr51,948 2010/11

6854,1911,9051,3001,270225,447nr31,590 2011/12

9394,8262,5403,5003,556008,636nr42,120 2012/13

Barley

1,9454,5371,0841811651482073,925nr4998 2010/11

1,3084,1826981501523003053,392nr4906 2011/12

1,5624,5731,0892002183003274,718nr41,323 2012/13

Oats

9822,7891,71537411,4681,4681,178nr2511 2010/11

7982,5561,45340441,6001,637779nr2380 2011/12

8172,5211,42040441,6001,637947nr2442 2012/13

Rye

203309334148141189nr2107 2010/11

113198233150152161nr298 2011/12

183218455150141192nr2111 2012/13

Rice, Milled

1,5144,358nr3,2133,4876205827,59311,02781,463 2010/11

1,0953,721nr3,4503,2077256355,8748,39181,059 2011/12

9234,009nr3,1002,9327506836,0868,66381,068 2012/13

Notes: Wheat Trade Year (TY) statistics are on July/June years. Barley, corn, sorghum, rye and oats Trade Year (TY) statistics

are on Oct/Sept years. Rice Trade Year (TY) statistics are for the subsequent calendar year; 'Imports' and 'Exports' columns

contain data on the local marketing year: wheat, barley, oats and rye are June/May; corn and sorghum are Sept/Aug; rice is

Aug/July.

July 2012

Total Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand

Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares

Area

Harvested

Yield Production TY Exports Feed Dom.

Consumpti

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks


1,162.5 278.51,216.1589.7193.22.1563.8 1983/84

1,315.0 340.01,253.5611.3203.62.3567.0 1984/85

1,328.5 420.61,247.9614.5165.22.3570.9 1985/86

1,348.0 469.21,299.4645.7174.72.4565.6 1986/87

1,285.9 423.11,329.8656.5202.22.4544.8 1987/88

1,218.1 339.31,302.0619.4203.32.2542.4 1988/89

1,327.4 320.51,346.2644.4208.92.4548.9 1989/90

1,417.6 368.71,369.5668.7190.12.6546.4 1990/91

1,355.7 359.51,364.9651.4207.52.5544.1 1991/92

1,431.6 399.21,389.1662.9205.22.6546.5 1992/93

1,356.1 366.11,389.2655.6188.22.5536.6 1993/94

1,392.5 362.61,396.0668.7200.12.6534.6 1994/95

1,338.5 319.11,381.9639.9187.52.5527.7 1995/96

1,490.5 366.71,442.9672.6198.42.7546.6 1996/97

1,491.6 413.61,444.7683.1190.32.8535.9 1997/98

1,481.9 447.51,448.1682.5198.72.8521.0 1998/99

1,464.9 443.81,468.0688.0214.32.9507.0 1999/00

1,446.7 419.11,471.5697.4205.12.8510.4 2000/01

1,480.2 403.71,495.5711.0208.52.9513.8 2001/02

1,443.2 341.31,505.7708.8209.62.9503.6 2002/03

1,471.2 278.81,533.7714.4206.22.9511.9 2003/04

1,642.2 336.01,585.1754.3214.73.2515.7 2004/05

1,599.2 319.71,615.4754.5222.83.1518.9 2005/06

1,584.8 275.31,629.3745.1230.43.1516.3 2006/07

1,692.6 292.61,675.3759.0245.73.2533.2 2007/08

1,795.5 363.01,725.2770.0254.23.3536.9 2008/09

1,797.1 396.11,763.9776.3254.63.4531.7 2009/10

1,747.8 359.61,784.3771.4249.93.4521.5 2010/11

1,840.4 359.91,840.0805.6271.93.5532.8 2011/12

1,849.0 347.91,861.0819.2259.23.4540.1 2012/13

Notes: Wheat and coarse grains trade data are on July/June years through 1975/76. From 1976/77 to the

present, coarse grains data are on an Oct/Sept trade year.

July 2012

World Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested


Consumpti

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

588.8 171.6554.3131.5101.32.5231.0 1990/91

543.5 163.2551.8115.1111.42.4222.8 1991/92

562.6 177.9547.7111.6113.22.5222.1 1992/93

558.5 183.4553.0109.6101.72.5221.0 1993/94

523.0 164.2542.1101.4101.52.5213.3 1994/95

537.5 155.7546.195.299.22.5216.7 1995/96

581.5 163.8573.499.6104.02.6227.1 1996/97

610.2 197.2576.7103.8104.52.7226.4 1997/98

590.4 209.4578.3106.8102.02.7219.2 1998/99

586.8 210.7585.5102.7111.92.8212.8 1999/00

583.1 207.1586.7108.8102.42.7215.7 2000/01

583.6 204.2586.5109.4108.02.7214.5 2001/02

569.6 169.2604.5113.7106.82.7213.8 2002/03

555.3 135.6588.999.1103.62.7207.8 2003/04

626.7 156.0606.3108.7113.42.9216.1 2004/05

618.8 153.5621.2114.8114.12.8218.7 2005/06

596.1 133.9615.7110.1115.62.8212.2 2006/07

611.9 128.2617.6102.1116.82.8217.1 2007/08

682.8 167.8643.1121.2143.53.0224.6 2008/09

686.2 200.6653.4119.8135.63.0225.8 2009/10

651.1 197.2654.5116.3133.73.0218.3 2010/11

694.7 197.2694.7147.2149.23.1221.7 2011/12

665.3 182.4680.1130.3135.63.0219.8 2012/13

Coarse Grains

828.8 197.1815.2537.388.92.6315.3 1990/91

812.2 196.3813.1536.296.22.5321.3 1991/92

868.9 221.3841.4551.391.92.7324.4 1992/93

797.6 182.7836.2546.186.52.5315.6 1993/94

869.4 198.3853.8567.498.62.7321.3 1994/95

800.9 163.4835.8544.788.32.6311.0 1995/96

909.1 203.0869.5573.094.42.8319.5 1996/97

881.4 216.4867.9579.285.82.8309.4 1997/98

891.5 238.1869.7575.796.73.0301.8 1998/99

878.1 233.1882.6585.2102.43.0294.2 1999/00

863.7 212.0884.7588.7102.72.9294.7 2000/01

896.6 199.6909.0601.6100.53.0299.3 2001/02

873.6 172.1901.2595.1102.83.0289.8 2002/03

916.0 143.3944.8615.3102.63.0304.1 2003/04

1,015.6 180.1978.8645.6101.33.4299.6 2004/05

980.4 166.2994.2639.7108.63.3300.2 2005/06

988.7 141.31,013.6635.0114.73.3304.1 2006/07

1,080.8 164.41,057.7656.8128.93.4316.1 2007/08

1,112.8 195.11,082.1648.8110.73.6312.3 2008/09

1,110.9 195.61,110.5656.5119.13.6305.9 2009/10

1,096.6 162.31,129.9655.1116.23.6303.1 2010/11

1,145.7 162.81,145.3658.4122.73.7311.1 2011/12

1,183.6 165.51,180.9688.9123.73.7320.3 2012/13

Notes: Wheat and coarse grains trade data are on July/June years through 1975/76. From 1976/77 to the

present, coarse grains data are on an Oct/Sept trade year.

July 2012

World Corn and Barley: Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested


Consumpti

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Corn

482.0 141.4473.4318.558.83.7129.1 1990/91

493.0 141.0493.3334.463.03.7132.5 1991/92

535.6 162.7512.1348.762.64.0133.1 1992/93

475.8 129.4509.0342.057.43.6130.7 1993/94

559.3 153.2535.6371.571.94.1135.2 1994/95

516.4 133.0536.6365.164.83.8135.0 1995/96

593.0 165.8560.1387.766.74.2141.5 1996/97

574.4 166.4573.8400.463.14.2136.2 1997/98

606.0 191.0581.5404.368.74.4138.9 1998/99

608.1 193.8605.3422.472.34.4138.9 1999/00

591.4 175.1610.1427.175.94.3137.2 2000/01

601.0 151.4624.8436.472.84.4137.5 2001/02

603.2 127.0627.5433.277.04.4137.3 2002/03

627.4 105.3649.2445.879.14.4142.0 2003/04

715.8 131.7689.4476.076.04.9145.4 2004/05

699.7 124.7706.7478.582.74.8145.7 2005/06

714.0 110.3728.5478.791.54.8149.5 2006/07

794.3 131.7772.9498.398.35.0160.5 2007/08

801.2 148.2784.6481.784.05.1158.5 2008/09

819.4 144.1823.5490.093.05.2157.4 2009/10

829.1 124.3848.9501.091.95.1162.6 2010/11

873.7 129.4868.6507.897.05.2168.4 2011/12

905.2 134.1900.5536.097.55.2175.3 2012/13

Barley

179.5 31.5175.5130.819.62.572.4 1990/91

169.9 34.9166.5120.319.42.275.9 1991/92

166.3 35.0165.6119.016.42.372.6 1992/93

169.0 34.9169.1123.818.82.373.2 1993/94

160.7 30.0165.6120.915.32.272.2 1994/95

141.2 20.5150.7107.813.42.166.4 1995/96

153.1 24.1149.5106.317.92.464.2 1996/97

153.9 32.2145.8104.112.82.463.8 1997/98

136.0 29.0139.399.517.82.456.6 1998/99

127.4 23.9132.594.017.82.452.1 1999/00

133.1 22.6134.494.616.22.553.2 2000/01

143.5 29.3136.895.517.22.655.9 2001/02

134.4 27.5136.195.016.32.455.0 2002/03

142.2 23.4146.3102.714.82.458.5 2003/04

152.2 33.0142.6100.217.02.657.7 2004/05

136.2 28.1141.197.517.52.555.6 2005/06

137.0 21.4143.798.414.62.456.6 2006/07

133.1 20.4134.191.318.62.456.1 2007/08

155.0 31.4144.1100.118.22.855.5 2008/09

150.8 37.5144.7100.717.32.854.4 2009/10

122.9 24.2136.191.515.22.647.6 2010/11

133.7 22.0136.091.218.62.749.8 2011/12

131.9 20.5133.489.416.72.651.3 2012/13

Notes: Coarse grains trade data are on July/June years through 1975/76. From 1976/77 to the present,

coarse grains data are on an Oct/Sept trade year.

July 2012

World Rice: Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested

Yield Rough

Production

Production TY Exports Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Rice, Milled

450.9 69.3294.411.9306.93.1144.6 1983/84

464.9 87.7298.411.0316.83.2144.1 1984/85

467.3 97.7308.011.8318.03.2144.7 1985/86

464.6 103.3310.412.9316.13.2144.8 1986/87

464.8 105.3313.111.4315.13.3141.4 1987/88

490.8 111.7325.714.0332.13.3146.6 1988/89

510.3 120.6336.311.7345.23.5147.8 1989/90

519.4 126.7345.312.3351.43.5147.0 1990/91

522.8 126.7353.214.4353.23.5147.5 1991/92

524.2 123.2357.514.9354.03.6146.5 1992/93

526.1 119.0358.916.6354.73.6145.3 1993/94

539.9 117.6365.520.8364.13.7147.3 1994/95

547.3 118.1368.319.7368.83.7148.4 1995/96

565.3 120.3379.218.9381.43.8150.1 1996/97

575.2 127.7380.027.6387.43.8151.7 1997/98

587.0 134.0388.624.8394.93.8153.1 1998/99

608.6 143.1400.122.8409.23.9155.9 1999/00

594.1 146.7395.624.4399.33.9152.4 2000/01

594.3 132.9413.327.8399.53.9151.4 2001/02

563.1 103.0408.127.5378.23.8146.9 2002/03

585.1 81.6413.727.3392.33.9149.3 2003/04

596.6 74.0408.529.0400.93.9151.8 2004/05

621.4 76.7414.629.1417.34.0153.9 2005/06

624.7 75.4421.331.9419.94.0154.5 2006/07

642.5 80.8427.529.6432.94.1155.1 2007/08

667.7 92.4437.129.4448.74.2158.2 2008/09

657.2 95.2438.531.5441.34.2156.1 2009/10

670.5 98.6445.936.1449.44.3157.7 2010/11

691.6 104.2458.435.5463.94.4158.9 2011/12

693.5 102.5466.835.8465.14.3160.0 2012/13

Notes: Stocks, exports and consumption are expressed on a milled basis in marketing years.

July 2012


54

ENDNOTES TO GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE REGIONAL TABLES North America: Canada, Mexico, the United States. Central America: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama. Caribbean: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French West Indies, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti, Jamaica and Dep, Leeward-Windward Islands, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Puerto Rico, Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Virgin Islands of the U.S. South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela. EU: Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom. Other Europe: Albania, Azores, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Former Yugoslavia, Gibraltar, Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland. Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan. Middle East: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen. North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia. Sub-Saharan Africa: all African countries except North Africa. East Asia: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Macau, Mongolia, Taiwan. South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives. Southeast Asia: Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. Oceania: Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea.

July 2012


55

OTHER NOTES Local Marketing Years (LMY): LMY refers to the 12-month period following the main harvest, when the crop is marketed (i.e., consumed, traded, or stored). The year first listed begins a country's LMY for that commodity (2008/09 starts in 2008); except for summer grains in certain Southern Hemisphere countries and for rice in selected countries, where the second year begins the LMY (2008/09 starts in 2009). Key exporter LMY’s are:

Wheat Corn Barley Sorghum Argentina (Dec/Nov) Argentina (Mar/Feb) Australia (Nov/Oct) Argentina (Mar/Feb) Australia (Oct/Sep) Brazil (Mar/Feb) Canada (Aug/Jul) Australia (Mar/Feb) Canada (Aug/Jul) China (Oct/Sep) EU-27 (Jul/Jun) United States (Sep/Aug) China (Jul/Jun) South Africa (May/Apr) Russia (Jul/Jun) EU-27 (Jul/Jun) United States (Sep/Aug) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) India (Apr/Mar) United States (Jun/May) Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun) Russia(Jul/Jun) Turkey (Jun/May) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) United States (Jun/May)

For a complete list of local marketing years, please see the FAS website (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdAvailability.aspx). Stocks: Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing years and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in time. Consumption: World totals for consumption reflect total utilization, including food, seed, industrial, feed, and waste; as well as differences in local marketing year imports and local marketing year exports. Consumption statistics for regions and individual countries, however, reflect food, seed, industrial, feed, and waste only. Trade: All PSD tables are balanced on the different local marketing years. All trade tables contain Trade Year (TY) data which puts all countries on a uniform, 12-month period for analytical comparisons: wheat is July/June; coarse grains, corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye are Oct/Sept; and rice is calendar year. EU Consolidation: The trade figures starting from 1999/00 represent EU-27 and exclude all intra-trade. For the years 1960/61 through 1998/99, figures are the EU-15 and also exclude all intra-trade. EU-15 member states' data for grains are no longer maintained in the official USDA database. Data for the individual NMS-10, plus Bulgaria and Romania, exists only prior to 1999/00. Statistics: (1) Wheat trade statistics include wheat, flour, and selected pasta products on a grain equivalent basis. (2) Rice trade statistics include rough, brown, milled, and broken on a milled

July 2012

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdAvailability.aspx�


56

equivalent basis. (3) Coarse grains statistics include corn, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains but exclude trade in barley malt, millet, and mixed grains. Unaccounted: This term includes grain in transit, reporting discrepancies in some countries, and trade to countries outside the USDA database. The Field Crops and Livestock Branch, Industry and Sector Analysis Division, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, Washington DC 20250, prepared this circular. Information is gathered from official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, reports of U.S. agricultural attachés and Foreign Service officers, office research, and related information. Further information may be obtained by writing the Division or telephoning (202) 720-6590. Note: The previous report in this series was the Grain: World Markets and Trade Foreign Agricultural Service Circular FG 06-12 June 2012. For further details on world grain production, please see World Agricultural Production Foreign Agricultural Service Circular WAP 07-12 July 2012. This circular is available in its entirety on the World Wide Web via the Foreign Agricultural Service Home Page. The address is: http://www.fas.usda.gov

July 2012

united states agriculture grain · demand. foreign exports are currently expected to be up only 2.0...

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