united nations economic commssion for lac...ecosud results: flexibility, and rotating mass to...
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United Nations Economic Commssion for LAC
Regional Observatory on Sustainable Energies -ROSE
11 de noviembre, 2019Ruben Contreras Lisperguer
Monitoreando el progreso hacia la
transición energética en ALCEl rol de las Estadísticas e Indicadores Energéticos
UN-ECLAC: fundamental areas of intervention on Energy
1. Changing the energy matrix towards a more sustainable and efficient one
2. Universal access to sustainable energy and quality energyservices, key to equality and social inclusion
3. Energy as an engine of structural change and increased productivity (energy policies and investments linked to other sectors - Environmental Big Push)
4. NEXUS
How does ECLAC define Energy Transition in Latin America and the Caribbean?
Energy transition will be understood as the process of change in policies,institutions, regulations and investments that promote the generation and moresustainable uses of energy aiming at the decarbonization of the economy,prioritizing:
• More generation of electricity from renewable sources, with an emphasis onvariable renewables.
• More energy efficiency of energy systems, including transport.• More sustainable management of fossil fuels and biofuels• More energy complementarity leading to less regional energy vulnerability
Objective: Decarbonization
Strategy: Energy Transition
Instrument: Environmental Big Push
• Are the existing indicators comprehensive, robust and comparable?
• How the existing indicators can be improved?
• Role of regional cooperation and knowledge sharing…..???? How we can coordinate and harmonize Energy Data Processing, Assumptions among all the custodians: WB, IRENA, IEA, ?.. International Recommendations for Energy Statistics are not fully applied?
People without acces to electricity in 2017??
12 million people WB and 18 Million OLADE, sieLAC
Devil is in Detail: Need for Disaggregation
• Energy access: share of population with access
➔ Improvement: Access Quality?, Impact on the poorest sectors?, detailed share of rural and urban population
• Renewable energy share in final energy
➔ Improvement: RE in heat, electricity, mobility, End-of-Life of RE technologies
• Energy intensity: primary energy per GDP
➔ Improvement: Detailed sectoral tracking (households, industry, transport)
➔Challenge: Considering the heterogeneity between countries (climate, economic structure, etc.)
ECLAC Project: The Regional Observatory on Sustainable Energies (ROSE)
BIEEEnergy
Efficiency
ECOSUDComplementarity
and Energy integration
Regional Technical Forum of
Energy Planners
Regional Political Dialogue on EE
Regional Observatory on Sustainable Energies (ROSE)
Energy Data in the form of Energy Indicators, modeling and Technical Cooperation
General objective:
To strengthen the national capacities of all Member States in Latin America and the
Caribbean to design, implement and monitor sustainable energy strategies, plans and
policies based on objective evidence.
Specific objectives:
1 Strengthen the technical capacities of beneficiary countries to produce
relevant and consistent data (e.g. social changes in access) to
develop energy indicators.
2 Improve the capacity of beneficiary countries to design and implement
evidence-based policies and action plans on sustainable energy.
One of ROSE's actions is to create spaces for political-technical dialogue in the region topromote efforts to achieve Agenda 2030 and SDG7.
Objectives of the "Regional Observatory on Sustainable Energy"
Reunión preparatoria del Foro - Río de Janeiro, EPE – marzo 6, 2018
REGIONAL TECHNICAL FORUM OF ENERGY PLANNERS
1er Foro Técnico de Planificadores Energéticos – Bogotá, Ministerio de Energía y Minas de Colombia, 5-junio-2018
2do Foro Técnico de Planificadores Energéticos – Santiago en CEPAL, 30
octubre 2018
Just held - 3er Foro Técnico de Planificadores Energéticos – Lima, Perú – 23 Octubre 2019
Energy Efficiency Indicators Database for LAC
Data-Mapper: sitio Web de la Base de datos para elaboración de Indicadores en EE
Sitio Web: https://www.cepal.org/es/proyectos/programa-biee-
base-de-indicadores-de-eficiencia-energetica
Base de datos ‘Data-Mapper’: http://www.biee-cepal.enerdata.eu/
ENERGY PRODUCTION - GENERATION [GWh]
BASE
RE
RE + INT
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Ocean
Nuclear
Mini-Hydro
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas
FuelOil
Diesel
Coal
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Ocean
Nuclear
Mini-Hydro
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas
FuelOil
Diesel
Coal
CONTINENTAL LATIN AMERICA
Renewable Energy Share in % All Hydro (<30% included)
Description:
Horizon:Units:Scenarios:
Notes:
Latin America Electricity Production Mix Forecast15 years [2018-2032]Annual GWh (lossless)-BASE-RE: Renewable Energy -RE+INT: Interconnected and RE ECOSUD update. Central America + Mexico from GoF
2018
2032
74%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Ocean
Nuclear
Mini-Hydro
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas
FuelOil
Diesel
Coal
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Ocean
Nuclear
Mini-Hydro
Hydro
Geothermal
Gas
FuelOil
Diesel
Coal
ECOSUD: Modeling the region
TOTAL COSTS: Production + Investment
CONTINENTAL LATIN AMERICA
Description:
Horizon:Units:
Notes:
LATIN AMERICA production and investment costs15 years [2018-2032]Annualized Capital and Operational Costs in Million USDReal annualized costs. Regional discount rate of 8% used for NPV calculations. WACC, economic life project specific. 2016 USD used for all input costs projections
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
MX
CA
BR
SA
SA represents South America
excluding Brazil
BASE
Total Costs
B$852
Generation Costs
FO&M CostTransmission
Build Cost
Annualized total costs in MUSD [M$]
Annualized
Build Cost
BASE
RE-optimistic
Generation Costs
FO&M CostTransmission
Build Cost
Annualized
Build Cost
Generation Costs
FO&M CostTransmission
Build Cost
Annualized
Build Cost
B$466.1 B$203.4
B$0.91B$181.6
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2018
20
19
20
20
20
21
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
20
27
20
28
20
29
2030
2031
2032
MX
CA
BR
SA0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
MX
CA
BR
SA
RE
Total Costs
B$817
B$316.7 B$303.4
B$ 2.3B$194.6
RE
B$310.7 B$301.5
B$195.4 B$4.61
Re + INT
Total Costs
B$812
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
MX
CA
BR
SA
RE + INT
What are the cost?: ECOSUD results
Para una mayor complementariedad, se requiere enfrentar la baja cobertura de redes de interconexión y regulaciones
Mapa de líneas actuales de transmisión de interconexiones transfronterizas
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y El Caribe (CEPAL)
Observatorio regional de
energías sostenibles
(ROSE)
Qué?
-Estadísticas (BIEE)
-Buenas prácticas de políticas y gobernanza
- Foro Regional de Planificadores
-Diálogo político en Eficiencia Energética
Para qué?
-Planificación
-Políticas basadas en evidencia
Para quién?
-Gobiernos
-Sociedad
-Empresas
-Academia
Con quién?
-Gobiernos
-CEPAL (Secretaría Técnica)
-OLADE, GIZ, IRENA, BID, CIER
Cómo?
- Plataforma web
-Modular
-Abierto
-Diálogos técnicos y metodológicos
La gobernanza del Observatorio Regional sobre Energías Sostenibles (ROSE)
Fuente: Elaboración CEPAL sobre base de datos de Financial Times fDi Markets.
Announcement of Foreign/External Direct Investment in the energy sector: shows an
increase in non-hydro renewables technologies, confirming the beginning of a
transition.
$144,379 $113,413
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
Accumulated investment 2005 and 2018 (MUSD)
Fosil Renovable
$99,628
$13,786
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Renovable No-Hidro Renovable Hidro
Accumulated investment for non-hydro renewables and hydro 2005 and 2018 (MUSD)
$16,385.02
$4,536.93 $3,783.10
$6,554.71 $7,548.69
$- $-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
Fosil Renovable no hidro Hidro
Comparison of Investment between 2005 and 2018 (MUSD) by technology
2005 2018
The foreign direct investment announced in the energy sector represents in renewables an annual investment of approximately 0.16% of the region's GDP (from 2005 to 2018) considering the annual regional GDP at constant dollar prices, while fossil fuels represent 0.21%.
ECOSUD RESULTS:
Flexibility, and Rotating mass to support system stability: Attention should be paid to the issue of margin reserve and ancillary/secondary services - storage will be key in the near future
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
68.0%
69.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
REs Penetration vs Reserve Margin
Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Reserve [%]
[MW]
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
REs Penetration vs Reserve Margin
Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Reserve [%]
[MW]
Escenario base ECOSUD - Sudamérica Escenario Renovables + Integración ECOSUD - Sudamérica
El escenario ER+INT (~800 mil millones US$) representa a la región una inversión anual aproximada del 1% del PIB de la región (del año 2019 al 2032) considerando el PIB total anual a precios en dólares constantes.
Beyond Access
The number of people without access to electricity services fell from 43.6 million in 2000 to 14 million in 2016.
Acceso a los servicios eléctricos en América Latina y el Caribe
(En cientos de millones de personas)
Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), en base a los datos del Global Tracking Framework Initiative
446454
462471
479487
495503
511518
526533
540547
555562
569576
583590
598605
612619
626632
639
382394
402413
424432
444453
463473
482491
500509
517526
536545
556564
573582
591600
607615
625
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Población total Población con acceso
The rural-urban access gap has narrowed from 31% in 1990 to 5.1% in 2016.
Porcentaje de la población rural y urbana con acceso a servicio eléctricos (En
porcentaje)
66.768.2
69.671.2
72.4 72.974.3
75.576.3
77.5
79.7 80.4
82.483.4
84.485.6
87.488.3
91.692.9
94.4
97.7 97.8 98.0 98.1 98.3 98.0 98.2 98.2 98.4 98.5 98.7 98.8 99.0 99.0 99.1 99.2 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.2 99.5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Proporción de la población rural con acceso Proporción de la población urbana con accesoFuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), en base a los datos del Global Tracking Framework Initiative
Actualizado a octubre de 2019
ECLAC Household Survey Data Bank processing
Some Electricity indicators
ROSE
Fuente: CEPAL, Banco de Datos de Encuestas de Hogares (BADEOHG). Se incluyeron 16 países.ECLAC Household Survey Data Bank
Latin America: Number of people without access to electricity by country, latest available year (16 countries)
0.01 0.02 0.030.10 0.13 0.14 0.18 0.23
0.74 0.78 0.80 0.830.89
0.97
1.16
2.65
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Mill
on
esd
e P
ers
on
as
Latin America: Proportion of population without access to electricity by income quintiles (rural, urban and total), latest available year
Fuente: CEPAL, Banco de Datos de Encuestas de Hogares (BADEOHG). Agregación regional por quintiles. Se incluyeron 16 países.
1.9
1.0
0.60.4
0.2
5.2
4.8
3.43.2
1.8
0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Quintil 1 Quintil 2 Quintil 3 Quintil 4 Quintil 5
Po
rce
nta
je (
%)
Nacional Rural Urbana
Fuente: CEPAL, Banco de Datos de Encuestas de Hogares (BADEOHG).Promedio regional ponderado por población. Se incluyeron 9 países.ECLAC Household Survey Data Bank
Latin America: Proportion of indigenous and Afro-descendant population and rest of population without access to electricity, latest available year
0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.23.6
12.6
22.0
26.7
0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.30.4
4.6
13.8
10.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Uruguay Brasil Perú México Chile AL Ecuador Bolivia Nicaragua Guatemala
Po
rce
nta
je(%
)
Latin America: Proportion of population without access to electricity according to housing precariousness, latest available year
Note: Precarious housing refers to deprivation in housing materials, which have been considered to be households in dwellings with irrecoverable materials in at least one aspect: ceiling, walls or floor. Example: Floor of earth or walls and/or ceiling of natural fibres and/or waste.
Fuente: CEPAL, Banco de Datos de Encuestas de Hogares (BADEOHG).Promedio ponderado por población. Se incluyeron 16 países.
2.1 2.6 2.84.0
5.5 5.66.9 7.1
13.7 13.8
26.6 26.828.9
35.937.6 37.9
0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.02.4
4.86.9
4.66.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Po
rce
nta
je (
%)
Precarias No precarias Promedio AL viviendas precarias 15% Promedio AL viviendas no precarias 0.9%
Energy Efficiency in LAC
Energy intensity based on primary energy in Latin America and the Caribbean versus other regions (MegaJoule/GDP)
Is Energy Intensity useful for policy makers?
4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Asia oriental y el Pacífico Europa y Asia central América Latina y el Caribe
América del Norte Miembros OCDEFuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), en base a los datos del Global Tracking Framework Initiative
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2009 2012
Increasing number of countries with quantitative targets
Targets are expressed in different ways and relate to different part of the consumption: on total (primary )consumption (around 20%) , on final energy consumption (around 20%) , or end-use sectors (case of 60% of countries)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Primary Final consumptionEnd-use sectors Energy Suppliers
• Countries with quantitative targets
Source WEC surveys ( 85 countries, of which 10 in Latin America)
Primary and final intensity trends: case of Brazil
Source BIEE/EPE
Different trends as to the variation of primary and final intensity in Brazil depending on energy transformations and mainly the power sectorSince 1998, and especially since 2005, energy transformations contribute to increase the primary intensity due to the development of thermal power generation and biofuels production
-2%-2%-1%-1%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%
1990-1993 1993-1998 1998-2005 2005-2010
%/a
ño
Intensidad primária Intensidad final Transformación
ECLAC Partners for Sustainable Energy
THANKS
Ruben Contreras LisperguerEconomic Affairs [email protected]