Mr. Palmarin

Unit 2: Atmosphere & Global Climate Change

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Section 2.1 – Structure & Composition of the AtmosphereTerms:

´ Atmosphere – the gases, droplets, and particles surrounding Earth’s surface.

´ Weather – daily conditions of the atmosphere.

´ Climate – the statistical properties of the atmosphere, including measures of average conditions, variability, etc.

´ Climatology – the study of long term atmospheric conditions.

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Vertical Structure of the Atmosphere

´ Troposphere – lowest layer (0 – 12 km).

´ Stratosphere – 2nd lowest layer (12 – 50 km).

´ Ozone layer – contained within the stratosphere (15 – 35 km)

´ Mesosphere – Middle layer (50 to 80 km).

´ Thermosphere – 2nd highest layer (80 – 700 km).

´ Exosphere – Top layer (700 – 10,000 km).

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0 km

10,000 km

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Parts of the Atmosphere Explained´ Troposphere (0 – 12 km): Almost all weather takes

place in this layer. Temperature is highest near the ground and decreases up to 12 km above ground. This allows convection to take place, which causes weather.

´ Tropopause (12 km): Transition zone where the temperature ceases to decrease.

´ Note: Don’t worry about the other transition zones (Stratopause, Menopause, or the Karman Line).

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- 8.6 km

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´ Stratosphere (12 – 50 km): Very little weather occurs in this layer. This layer increases in temperature as altitude increases. Why?´ Ozone layer (15 – 35 km): Ozone (O3) absorbs UV

light, which effectively heats this layer.

´At higher altitudes in the stratosphere, ozone very efficiently absorbs UV. As the UV passes through the stratosphere, its wavelength changes, and ozone less efficiently absorbs UV. Therefore, temperature increases from 15 km to 35 km.

´ This temperature inversion implies no convection and therefore no weather events.

6 Parts of the Atmosphere Explained continued…

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´ Mesosphere (50 – 80 km): Makes up roughly 0.1% of the total mass of the atmosphere. The density is too low for ozone chemistry to heat the atmosphere. Therefore, with respect to heat the trend is the same as the troposphere – lower temperature with higher altitudes.

7 Parts of the Atmosphere Explained continued…

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´ Thermosphere (80 – 700 km): Density is so low that the International Space Station (ISS) orbits in this layer.

´ Temperature can be roughly 1500 °C, though the gas molecules are so far apart that its temperature (in the usual sense) is not very meaningful.

´ Although the thermosphere has a high proportion of molecules with high energy, it would not feel hot to a human in direct contact, because its density is too low to conduct a significant amount of energy to or from the skin.

8 Parts of the Atmosphere Explained continued…

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´ Exosphere (700 – 10,000 km): Outermost layer of Earth’s atmosphere. This layer merges with outer space, where there is no atmosphere. ´ The aurora borealis and aurora australis sometimes occur

in the lower part of the exosphere (but usually in the Thermosphere).

´ The exosphere contains most of the satellites orbiting Earth.

9 Parts of the Atmosphere Explained continued…

As of 2016, there are 2,271 satellites in orbit.

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Chemical Composition of the Atmosphere

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Composition continued…´ Permanent Gases – Those gases whose relative

abundance is constant within the lowest 80 km of the atmosphere (Stratosphere to Mesosphere).

´ Variable Gases – Gases present in amounts that vary greatly in abundance, either vertically, horizontally, or seasonal. Even though they represent a tiny portion of the atmosphere as a whole, they exert a great control over climate.

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Summary´ The atmosphere is composed of five main

layer/spheres, where two play a critical role in governing the temperature and climate of Earth’s surface (Troposphere and Stratosphere).

´ The Earth’s atmosphere is primarily composed to two main gases: nitrogen and oxygen.

´ The variable gases, mainly water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, and methane will be of great importance when we discuss climate change.

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Video: The Atmosphere (in-depth look at Earth’s atmosphere)

Complete the Section 2.1 Questions

Mr. Palmarin

Section 2.2 – Air Pollution Catastrophes & Policies

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“[In London], streets dart in all directions, until they are lost in the unwholesome vapour which hangs over the house-tops and renders the dirty perspective uncertain and confined.”

– Charles Dickens,1835

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Current Air Pollution14

In 2009, the air pollution in Hong Kong reached “life threatening” levels on average one in every eight days (roughly 45 days of the year).

Hong Kong, 2009

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Canadian Air Pollution LawsWho writes the laws? The federal and provincial governments. The laws set by the Federal government must be adhered to by all the provinces and territories. However, the provinces may adopt more stringent regulations.

´ Canadian Environmental Protection Act (1988, 1999): This is a federal government legislation that was first passed in 1988 and later updated in 1999. ´ Manages and controls toxic substances (SO2, SO3, CO, Pb,

NO2, and particulate matter).

´ The Clean Air Act (Saskatchewan; 1989, 2015): This act was first passed in 1989 and later updated in June, 2015. ´ This act is intended to give the provincial government power

to monitor and regulate air pollution in Saskatchewan.

Both acts were a response to air pollution incidents that occurred throughout the world that had major health and environmental consequences.

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Key Event: The Donora Fluoride Fog´ Donora was a company town south of Pittsburgh, US.

Its main industry was a plant that produced zinc metalfrom its ore.

´ To generate sufficient heat to melt and purify the zinc, the plant burned coal, which produced a great deal of pollution.

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Thermal InversionThermal Inversion would turn out to be a major cause of the crisis that occurred in Donora. So, what is it?

´ Recall: in the troposphere, air normally becomes cooler with higher altitude.

´ Key Fact: Warm air near the surface is less dense, so it rises. Any air pollutants near the surface will also rise with it.

´ During a thermal inversion, this pattern switches. A pocket of cool air is trapped below a layer of warmer air; i.e. pollution released into this pocket of cool air is trapped.

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´ In October, 1948, Donora experienced a temperature inversion.

´ A thig smog, containing several poisonous gases, including fluoride, began to build.

´ The inversion lasted for 5 days.

´ Plant continued in full operation until the fifth day.

´ 20 people died and thousands were sickened.

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Key Event: The Great Smog´ In 1952, an unusually cold winter struck London.

´ City dwellers were burning high amounts of a low-grade coal that was high in sulfur dioxide.

´ A temperature inversion settled over the city, and emissions from thousands of chimneys began to build up.

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´ The smog lasted for five days.

´ Around 4,000 people died very quickly.

´ Around 100,000 more people became ill from respiratory tract infections.

´ The total number of fatalities due to the smog may have been up to 12,000.

It is perhaps the worst known air-pollution event in history.

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Clean Air Act(s)These two major events (and others) spurred governments around the world into action. All of the acts did the same thing: monitor and regulate which types of pollutants can be put into the air, and how much.

Here are a few countries that have implemented some form of “Clean Air Act”.´ Clean Air Act (1956, UK)´ Clean Air Act (1970, USA)

´ Clean Air Act (1971, Japan)´ Clean Air Act (1984, Australia)

´ Clean Air Act (1987, China) Note: not strongly enforced

As previously discussed, Canada introduced its Canadian Environmental Protection Act in 1988. Saskatchewan has its own Clean Air Act (1989).

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Complete the Section 2.2 Questions

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Section 2.3 – Types of Air PollutionAir pollution – the presence of undesirable material in the air in quantities large enough to produce harmful effects.

Two types of air pollutants:´ Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs)

´ Criteria Pollutants

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Hazardous Air Pollutants´ Hazardous air pollutants are pollutants that humans

have no tolerance for. Even small dosages lead to health damage.

´ Hazardous pollutants:

´ Often cause cancer, reproductive problems, or birth defects.

´ Included arsenic, mercury, hydrocarbons, halogenated organics, pesticides, DDT

´ Often present in atmosphere below limit of detection.

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Criteria Pollutants´ Criteria pollutants are pollutants that humans can

tolerate up to a certain level. Small dosages do not lead to health damage.

´ Clean Air Act(s) typically set and enforce limits for the following eight criteria pollutants.

´ Sulfur dioxide (SO2)´ Nitrogen oxides (NOx)´ Ammonia (NH3)´ Carbon monoxide (CO)´ Particulate Matter (PMs)´ Lead (Pb)´ Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) & Ozone (O3)

We will now go through each of these pollutants and outline what they are and how they are produced.

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Sulfur Dioxide´ Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a colourless gas with a strong

“rotten egg” odour.

´ Sometimes, when passing by the Regina’s Coop Refinery, you can smell this compound being released into the air.

´ Sulfur dioxide is a primary pollutant because it is released directly into the air. The main source is coal-burning power plants.

´ A secondary pollutant is when a resultant chemical reaction that occurs in the atmosphere creates a pollutant.

´ Sulfur dioxide can react with water vapour to produce sulfuric acid (acid rain when mixed with precipitation).

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Regina’s Co-op Refinery

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Nitrogen Oxides´ Nitrogen oxides (NOx) consist of nitric oxide (NO),

nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and dinitrogen monoxide (N2O).

´ NOx‘s have a reddish-brown colour and a sharp, sweet odour.

´ The largest source of nitrogen oxide pollution is the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer in agriculture (primary pollutant).

´ Its second biggest contributor is vehicle exhaust(primary pollutant).

´ Main source of photochemical smog (have you noticed that smog has a reddish-brown colour?)

´ NO2 reacts with moisture to produce nitric acid (acid rain – secondary pollutant). This greatly contributes to smog.

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Nitrogen Oxides & Smog27

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Result of SO2 and NO2 – Acid Rain´ Acid precipitation occurs whenever rainfall or snowfall

contains a lower than normal pH.´ pH expresses how acidic or basic a solution is. It is based

on a logarithmic scale on which 7 is neutral (pure water). Lower values are more acidic and higher values are more basic.

´ Normal rainwater: pH = 5.6

´ Acid rain: pH = 4.2 – 4.4

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Effects of Acid Rain´ Acid rain has many ecological effects:

´ Many plants cannot absorb nutrients properly from acidic soil.

´ Fish and amphibians have specific pH ranges they can tolerate.

´ Acid rain also has corrosive effects on infrastructure.Note: Acid rain has decreased significantly as regulations and policies have been implemented in most countries that control the emitters of SO2 and nitrogen oxides.

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Affects of acid rain on plant life and statues.

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Ammonia´ Ammonia (NH3) is a colourless gas with a pungent

odour. ´ Most of the NH3 emitted is generated from livestock

waste management and fertilizer production.´ NH3 is poisonous if inhaled in great quantities and is

irritating to the eyes, nose, and throat in lesser amounts.

´ NH3 can also increase the available nutrients in aquatic systems.´ Too many nutrients can cause algae blooms, which

leads to deoxygenation, which harms aquatic life.

Note: Ammonia is toxic to fish.

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Carbon Monoxide´ Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colourless, odourless gas.

The largest source of carbon monoxide is vehicle exhaust.

´ Carbon monoxide is the most dangerous of the criteria air pollutants, because it directly interferes with the ability of red blood cells to transport oxygen.

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One of 84 ventilation fans (used to scrub CO) in the Holland Tunnel, New York City.

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Catalytic Converters & Car Emissions´ Catalytic converters are devices in cars that reduce

emissions of pollutants like nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide by partially converting them to less harmful gases.

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Particulate Matter´ Particulate Matter (PMs) are small, visible particles of

dust, ash, soot, or any other visible material.

´ PMs are emitted from fuel combustion, industrial processes, dust from roads/construction, and agricultural activities.

´ In addition to reducing visibility, PMs can be inhaled and embed themselves in lung and bronchial tissue.

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Technologies to Keep Air Clean´ Scrubber systems use a liquid spray to wash unwanted

pollutants (SO2, nitrogen oxides) from a gas stream.

´ Electrostatic precipitators are electrically charged plates that will attract pollutants, preventing them from being released into the air.

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Lead´ Lead (Pb) is a heavy metal element. It is known to be a

neurotoxin that reduces overall brain function.

´ Small particles of lead can attach themselves to PMs, which can then be inhaled.

´ The primary source of lead pollution was vehicle exhaust, before leaded gasoline was phased out.

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Volatile Organic Compounds & Ozone´ Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are carbon-

containing molecules that can evaporate easily (gasoline or paint solvent).

´ Ground-level ozone (O3) is a toxic secondary pollutantproduced as a result of nitrogen oxides, VOCs, or carbon monoxide reacting to sunlight in the atmosphere.´ Note: Ozone is invisible, but it smells similar to chlorine bleach.

Note: Ozone Action Days are alerts issued when conditions are right for accumulation of pollutant (usually in the summer).

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The Ozone Layer´ While ozone is toxic at ground level, it is an important

part of the stratosphere. ´ Recall: The ozone layer blocks some of the mutagenic

ultraviolet radiation from the sun.

´ In the 1970s, depletion of ozone above Antarctica was creating a “hole” in this protective layer.´ The hole was growing the fastest during September and

October each year.

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Ozone Layer continued…´ The cause of the hole was discovered to be

chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), compounds that were used in aerosol cans and as refrigerants.´ CFCs are any class of compounds of carbon,

hydrogen, chlorine, and fluorine. They release chlorine atoms upon exposure to ultraviolet radiation (see below).

´ CFCs were becoming trapped in the Antarctic snow and ice, which would then melt in the spring months of September and October.

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Montreal Protocol & CFCs´ An international agreement called the Montreal

Protocol, was passed in 1987, which phased out CFCs.

´ CFC release stabilized and has started to decline.

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Ozone Concentration TimelineThe ozone layer is slowly returning to its previous concentration. It should recover to its 1980 levels by 2050 and will continue to improve.

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Note: With continued production of CFCs, ozone levels worldwide would have dropped to dangerously low levels (predicted by NASA’s simulation below).

Complete the Section 2.3 Questions

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Section 2.4 – Climate Change41

“We warn you that unless you act quickly and decisively, our homeland and others like it will disappear beneath the rising sea before the end of this century.” – Mohamed Nasheed (former president of the Maldives)

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Basic Terms´ Climate: the statistical properties of the atmosphere,

including measures of average conditions, variability, etc.

´ Solar Radiation: radiant energy emitted by the sun from a nuclear fusion reaction that creates electromagnetic energy.

´ Ultraviolet (UV) light – a form of radiation which is not visible to the human eye.

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Solar Spectrum

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Basic Terms´ Infrared Radiation (IR): a type of electromagnetic

radiation that is invisible to humans, but people can feel it as heat.

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Infrared map (shows heat distribution). Redis very hot and blue to black is very cold.

Light spectrum.

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Basic Concept – Greenhouse Effect´ The trapping of some of the infrared radiation within

the atmosphere keeps the Earth’s daily temperature fluctuations within a small, habitable range. This is called the greenhouse effect.

´ The two main gases responsible for this effect are methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2).

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1. Some of the IR energy from the sun penetrates the atmosphere, warming the Earth’s surface.

2. The IR energy is then re-radiated off the Earth’s surface back towards space. The troposphere traps some of that energy.

1.. 2..

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Evolution of Earth’s AtmosphereEarliest Atmosphere

´ Earth is believed to have formed roughly 4.5 billion years ago (radioactive dating techniques).

´ The first atmosphere was primarily composed of hydrogen (H2) and some simple hydrides such as water vapour (H2O), methane (CH4), and ammonia (NH3).

´ Most of these gases would have escaped quickly (no magnetic field to protect from solar wind).

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Evolution of Earth’s AtmosphereSecond Atmosphere

´ Outgassing from volcanism, supplemented by gases produced during the bombardment of Earth by huge asteroids, gave rise to an atmosphere consisting largely of nitrogen and carbon dioxide.

´ Earth’s climate was approximately warm enough at this time to support liquid water (3.5 billion years ago).

´ The carbon cycle was most likely established during this period (starting at 4 billion years ago).

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The Great Oxygenation Event (2.7 billion years ago)

´ During this time period, the Earth’s atmosphere was mostly composed of carbon dioxide and nitrogen.

´ A new life form evolved, called cyanobacteria.

´ Cyanobacteria have the ability to perform photosynthesis, absorbing carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen.

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Cyanobacteria bloom

Watch: Earth and the Early Atmosphere

Evolution of Earth’s Atmosphere

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´ The influx of oxygen from the seas created an ecological crisis, as it poisoned many of the other species of bacteria. In turn, the overall amount of CO2decreased and O2 increased.

´ Higher levels of O2 have been associated with rapid development of animals. Today’s atmosphere contains 21% oxygen, which is high enough for this rapid development of animals.

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The Oxygen Catastrophe´ Cyanobacteria also caused the concentration of

methane to greatly decrease.

´ This event, called the oxygen catastrophe, led to one of the longest ice ages.

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An artist’s impression of what the earth could have looked like during an ice age.

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Ice Ages´ An ice age is a period of time where the Earth’s overall

surface temperature is lowered enough that glaciers form at the poles and in mountainous areas.

´ The Earth has experienced at least five major ice ages.

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´ Within each ice age, glaciers will expand and shrink.

´ During glacial periods, glaciers are growing and advancing.

´ During interglacial periods, the overall climate is warmer, leading the glaciers to retreat.

´ We are currently in an interglacial period of an ice age.

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Ice ages appear to occur cyclically every 100,000 years.

Watch: Ice Ages

Mr. Palmarin

Present Atmospheric Composition´ The gases in Earth’s atmosphere include:

´ Nitrogen – 78%´ Oxygen – 21%

´ Argon – 0.93%´ Carbon dioxide – 0.038%´ Other greenhouse gases < 0.01%

´ Let’s take a closer look at the last two values. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. We’ll also take a closer look at the other greenhouse gases: methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone.

Note: The following slides will include the most accurate and up-to-date data that is available. Causes and effects for the following irregularities in atmosphere and climate will be discussed in Section 2.5

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Measuring Past Climate´ Recall: Historically the greenhouse gases have had a

significant impact on climate. In fact, they are the principle players in determining climate, especially temperature.

How do scientists measure historic atmospheric conditions?

Answer: Proxies

´ Proxies are indirect measurements. Climate proxies are preserved physical characteristics of the past that stand in for direct measurements to enable scientists to reconstruct the past climatic conditions.´ Examples: ice cores, tree rings, sub-fossil pollen,

boreholes, corals, and lake/ocean sediments.

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Ice Cores´ This method of determining atmospheric conditions

takes advantage of the cold temperatures of Antarctica and Greenland.

´ Method: Ice cores are drilled into the glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland.

´ Trapped bubbles of atmosphere in each layer are analyzed.

´ Relative amounts of two isotopes of oxygen can be used to estimate the temperature at the time the ice was formed.

´ Concentration of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are measured directly.

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Ice Cores´ The age of the ice cores are determined by counting

the annual layers (similar to counting tree rings).

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The bubbles are the trapped gas (O2, CO2, CH4, NOx, etc.)

Watch: “Ice Cores and Global Warming”

Watch: “Drilling for Ice” – BBC

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Analyzing the Data: Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide over Time

Data taken from the United States EPA, June 2015

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Analyzing the Data: Concentrations of Methane over Time

Data taken from the United States EPA, June 2015

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Analyzing the Data: Concentrations of Nitrous Oxide over Time

Data taken from the United States EPA, June 2015

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Comparing the graphs show a correlation between CO2and CH4 levels and surface temperature.

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Source: Hansen (2005), Climatic Change 68: 269

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Climate Change´ Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of

weather patterns when that change lasts for an extended period of time (decades to millions of years).

´ May refer to change in average weather conditions or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions (i.e. more or fewer extreme weather events).

´ Today, human activities have been identified as the significant cause of recent climate change.

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Tracking Climate Change´ Climate proxies (ice cores) are extremely useful to get

an image of past atmospheric conditions. Today, we can use direct measurements.

´ In 1958, measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were directly sampled at an observatory in Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Increasing trend.

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Tracking Climate Change´ The graph below is taken from NASA’s satellite data

(2005 – January 2016). Increasing trend.

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CO2 Direct Measurements (2005 – present)

NASA (2016)

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Tracking Climate Change´ Both land and ocean surface temperatures have

increased since the Industrial Revolution.

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Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index

NASA (2016)

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Tracking Climate Change´ Due to increased temperatures, sea ice has been

declining at a rate of 13.4% per decade (which is significant). The following data was taken via Satellite Observations.

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Arctic Sea Ice

NASA (2016)

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Tracking Climate Change´ Land ice, which includes glaciers, ice sheets, ice caps,

and permafrost, are rapidly receding.

´ Antarctica – losing 134.0 billion metric tons per year

´ Greenland – losing 287.0 billion metric tons per year

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Antarctica

Greenland

NASA (2016)

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Tracking Climate Change´ Because of the rapid recession and melting of the ice

sheets and sea ice, global sea level is increasing.

´ Also, thermal expansion (increase volume of water as it warms) gives rise to global sea level. Therefore, the increase in temperature directly affects sea level (as well as indirectly through melting of ice).

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Satellite Data of Sea Level

NASA (2016)

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Tracking Climate Change67

Ground Data (Coastal Tide Gauge Records)

NASA (2016)

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ConclusionsEarth’s climate is warming.The next important question to ask and explain is: Why is Earth’s climate warming?

Short Answer: Fluctuations in the two main greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) directly and actively affect global temperatures. ´ In this case, the current CO2 and CH4 levels are at

unprecedentedly high levels; therefore, Earth’s global temperature will and is following suite.

Key Questions:

1. What or who is causing this unprecedented increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane?

2. What are the effects of climate change?

We’ll address both questions the next section.

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Complete the Section 2.4 Questions

Mr. Palmarin

Section 2.5 – Cause & Effects of Climate ChangeThis section will go over the following effects of climate change:

´ Growing seasons

´ Increase of pest insects

´ Alteration of underwater currents

´ Melting of polar ice

´ Effects on the Hydrologic Cycle

´ Increase in global sea level

We will then discuss human involvement in climate change and plans to combat climate change.

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The Growing Seasons´ The increase in surface temperature has

altered growing seasons.

´ A hardiness zone map is a geographically defined area in which a specific category of plant life is capable of growing, as defined by climatic conditions, including its ability to withstand the minimum temperatures of the zone.

´ See the scale on the right.

Example: A plant that is described as “hardy zone 8a” means that the plant can withstand a minimum temperature of -7 °C. A more resilient plant that is “hardy to zone 2” can tolerate a minimum temperature of -40 °C.

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-54 to -51

-50 to -46

-45 to -40

-39 to -35

-34 to -29

-28 to -23

-22 to -18

-17 to -12

-11 to -7

°C (Celsius)

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Hardiness Zone Maps in Canada71

1931 – 1960

1961 – 1990 1981 - 2010

Notice the significant changes that have occurred in the past 80 years. Change in plant life directly affects ecosystem behaviourand animal life.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

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Increase in Pest Insects´ Warmer temperatures have increased the range of

many pest insects. Range boundaries are moving northward by an average 6.1 km/decade.

´ Warmer temperatures have and will continue to favour pests such as ants, termites, moths, flies, mosquitoes, cockroaches, and fleas.

´ For instance, a 3 °C temperature increase will almost double the growth rate of cockroaches.

´ Furthermore, spring events are taking place earlier. This directly favours the growth rate of mosquitoes. Mosquitoes that spread diseases like malaria and West Nile Virus have expanded ranges and population.

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Alteration of Underwater Currents´ The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt is an underwater

current fueled by the mixing of warm and cold salt water.´ Ocean currents redistribute heat around the world and

have a profound effect on the world’s climate.

´ An influx of cold freshwater from melting land ice, especially in the Arctic and Greenland appears to be responsible for the variability and quick changes that are being observed in the conveyor belt.

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Melting of Polar Ice – The Arctic´ According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report:

“Warming in the Arctic, as indicated by daily maximum and minimum temperatures, has been as great as in any other part of the world.”

´ In 2007 and 2012, the September minimum extent of sea ice was low enough to open up the Northwest Passage.

“It’s reasonable to conclude that a nearly ice-free Arctic summer will very likely occur before 2050 and possibly by 2025 or 2035.”

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The Arctic & the Albedo Effect´ One of the reasons why the Arctic is heating so much

faster is the difference in albedo between snow and ocean water.

´ Albedo is a measurement of how reflective a surface is.

´ Ocean water has a much lower albedo, so more heat is absorbed as the ice melts. This creates a feedback loop as more ice melts (rate of melting will increase).

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Effects on the Hydrologic Cycle´ The hydrologic cycle describes the movement of water

through evaporation, precipitation, runoff, and infiltration (see Section 1.1).

´ More heat in the atmosphere leads to:

´ Higher rate of evaporation.

´ The atmosphere has a significantly increased capacity for holding moisture.

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The Possible Extremes of Weather´ Increased evaporation and atmospheric moisture content

has the paradoxical effect of increasing the rate of both drought and flooding events.

´ Locations that receive a lot of precipitation historically are prone more extreme/frequent floods.

´ Locations that receive medium to low amounts of precipitation historically are prone to more extreme/frequent droughts.

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Global Sea Level Rise´ The most costly impact of climate change is the

current and future increase in global sea level.

´ As we have seen in Section 2.4, global sea level is predicted to increase and even accelerate its current rate of increase (3.41 mm/yr).

´ The most recent IPCC assessment predicts that by the end of the 21st century, global sea level will have risen by about 26 to 59 cm (10 – 23 inches).

´ Note: This is assuming no changes are made to the current rate of greenhouse emissions.

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Use the following app to experience sea level rise.

Coast of Florida with a 2 ft. increase in sea level

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Key Facts´ Around 23% of the world’s population (1.6 billion) lives

in the near coastal zones with population densities about three times higher than the global average.

´ Of the 39 big metropolitan areas with a population over 5 million, sixty percent are located within 100 km of the coast.

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Shanghai New York

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Consequences´ Billions of dollars will be spent on adaptation.

´ Example: The US has roughly 20,000 km of coastline and more than 32,000 km of coastal wetlands. Financial estimates of the impact of a 66 cm sea level rise by 2100 suggest costs could be in the region of $236 billion USD with nearly 9000 km2 of land having to be abandoned and 13,000 km of coastal defences needing to be constructed. Most countries do not have these resources.

´ Entire countries and cities will be lower than sea level.

´ Some island nations (Maldives) will be submerged in the next 30 – 50 years. London, Bangkok, New York, Shanghai, and Mumbai will eventually be below sea level. Note: There comes a point at which building higher and higher sea defences becomes impractical – even the wealthiest nations will see cities flood.

´ Rising oceans will contaminate both surface and underground fresh water supplies.

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Human Involvement?´ Recall Section 2.1 and 2.4. The greenhouse effect is a

fact. It is what gives our planet the ability to retain heat and maintain a steady temperature.

´ Fact: An increase in greenhouse gases will increase global temperature.

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´ Fact: The key greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are:

´ CO2: Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and agriculture.

´ Methane (CH4): Agricultural activities, waste management, and energy use.

´ Nitrous oxide (N2O): Fertilizer use.

´ Fluorinated gases: Refrigeration.

Source: Environmental Protection Agency

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Human Emissions´ Fact: Since 1970, CO2 emissions have increased by

about 90%, with emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributing about 78% of the total greenhouse gas emission increase from 1970 to 2011. This excludes agriculture and deforestation.

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Source: Environmental Protection Agency

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Historic CO2 Levels83

´ This data was presented in Section 2.4. Use this as a reference in the next few slides.

Atmospheric CO2 concentration using ice core proxy data.NASA, GISS; 2013

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Why is CO2 the Focus?´ According to NASA, the EPA, and the IPCC, the

unprecedented increase in atmospheric CO2 levels have caused most of the warming, and its influence is expected to continue.

´ While other gases have more potent heat-trapping abilities molecule per molecule (e.g. methane), they are simply far less abundant in the atmosphere and are being added more slowly.

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´ According to NASA’s recent study (October, 2014) CO2 is responsible for 80% of the radiative forcing (RF) that sustains the Earth’s greenhouse effect.

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Climate Influence Between 1750 & 200585

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Further Evidence´ Further evidence for human contribution to climate

change can be found within the different isotopes of one of the atoms released by burning fossil fuels.

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´ Plants have a preference for absorbing the lighter isotope (C-12) while performing photosynthesis. Fossil fuels have similar ratios.

´ The ratio between C-13 and C-12 began to shrink around the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. No other point in the data record has this happened.

´ This points to anthropogenic (human created) greenhouse gas emissions.

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Simple Inductions´ Fact: CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas. Rise is

CO2 levels leads to rise in global temperature.

´ Fact: Human beings release close to 10,000 millionmetric tonnes (10 Gt) of CO2 per year (see slide 14).

IPCC conclusion (fifth report):

“It is extremely likely that human activities have caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature since the 1950’s”.

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Read this article. It presents a mathematical analysis of human CO2 contribution compared to the total atmospheric CO2.

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Scientific Consensus´ A survey was taken in 2004 of 928 abstracts of peer-

reviewed papers relating to climate change.

´ None disagreed with the IPCC conclusions.

´ A different survey was taken in 2009 of 3,146 Earth Scientists (defined as publishing more than half of their peer-reviewed papers on climate change).

´ 97% agree with the IPCC conclusions.

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Skepticism Doesn’t Matter´ Throughout the collection of climate data, there has

been a small movement (largely lead by politics and oil industries) of skepticism towards human contribution to climate change.

´ This movement is both frustrating and counter-productive. Regardless, change in energy production must occur. This is independent of views towards climate change.

Key Fact: Fossil fuels are a non-renewable resource; i.e. we will run out of fossil fuels eventually.

Therefore, humanity must move swiftly towards relying primarily on renewable resources (wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal).

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Skepticism Doesn’t Matter´ Elon Musk (co-founder of PayPal, CEO of Tesla, Space X,

and chairman of Solar City), presents the solution to the climate crisis very succinctly:

“The Goal: Exit the fossil fuels era as soon as possible.”

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“There’s going to be no choice in the long term to move to sustainable energy – we have to have sustainable energy or we’ll simply run out of [fossil fuels].”

Elon Musk, 2015

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The Most “Obvious” DecisionOn moving towards sustainable energy (phasing out fossil fuels)…

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3% of Scientists 97% of Scientists

“This is the dumbest experiment in history. Ever. Why would you [wait]?” – Elon Musk on the above scenario

Watch (3min – 11min): Elon Musk Presents at Paris Climate Talks

Smart Decision: Move as fast as possible towards sustainable energy.

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Solutions´ In the long-term, the least expensive solutions involve

the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

´ Decrease fossil fuel consumption.

´ Improve energy efficiency. Move towards sustainable transport and energy production.

´ Reduce deforestation.

´ Improve technology to reduce certain agricultural practices known to release greenhouse gases.

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Short-term SolutionsHere are some suggestions to fix the carbon cycle and decrease global temperatures. I call them “short-term solutions” because they evade the real problem; however, they do buy humanity a bit more time.

´ Carbon sequestration: removal and storing of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This is accomplished biologically (restoring bogs, forests, and wetlands).

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Experimental reforestation of the Ashio copper mine, Japan.

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´ Carbon capture and storage: the process of capturing carbon dioxide produced from large point sources, such as coal-burning power plants and depositing it underground. This is an extremely expensive process.

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Schwarze Pumpe power station and carbon capture facility, Spremburg Germany

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´ Geoengineering: the study of intentionally and artificially changing natural processes of the Earth.

´ One idea is to combat warming by blocking some of the sunlight entering Earth’s atmosphere. This is done by injecting sulfur dioxide or particulate pollutants into the stratosphere.

95 Short-term Solutions continued…

The Stratoshield, a sulfate-releasing device concept developed by Intellectual Ventures Lab.

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Long-term Solutions´ Reduce fossil fuel consumption. This must include a

carbon-tax. Currently, there are little incentives to move towards renewable energy. A carbon-tax would be one important incentive to move away from fossil fuels.

´ Invest in renewable energy production (hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal). Also, we must move towards sustainable transport (electric cars).

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Solar PowerNote: Solar power is where all life on earth gets its energy. Humanity’s future of energy production will most likely rely primarily on solar power.

Are solar panels good enough?

´ If you were to cover roughly a 100 mi2 area of the US (say one corner of Arizona) with today’s solar technology, it would capture and store enough energy to produce and sustain all of the power that the US consumes per year.

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Solar RoofThe sun provides more than enough energy in just one hour to supply our planet’s energy needs for an entire year. How can we harness this energy more efficiently?

One idea: Solar Roofs

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Tesla Energy, 2017

Watch: Tesla & Solar City Unveil the Solar Roof

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Renewable Transport´ Electric transport (cars, planes, trains, etc.) are the

future of transportation. This future is fast approaching.

´ Tesla (an all electric automotive company) is leading the march towards sustainable transport. Their cars have a long range (~400 km), fast charging (~35min), and are impressively powerful and fast (~650 hp).

´ Look them up and follow their progress!

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Tesla Model S, 2017

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Summary´ The effects of climate change can be devastating to

humanity.

´ The cause of climate change is the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human emissions.

´ Fossil fuels are limited and will eventually run out.

´ The goal is to move towards renewable energy and sustainable transport. This will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby reduce the impact of climate change. We will also be a fully energy efficient species.

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Watch: Transitioning to 100% Renewable Energy

Complete the Section 2.5 Questions