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Unit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

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Page 1: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Unit 1: Theories and Game Theory

Michael GillDept. of Government, Harvard University

Sept 14, 2011

Page 2: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Outline

0) Questions/Concerns1) Review of Kinds of Theories2) Review of Game Theory3) Game Theory Extensions

Page 3: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

KINDS OF THEORIES

Page 4: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Why (causal) theories?

In everyday speech, people make causal statements all the time. . .• “The poor are responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Wall Street is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Bush is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Obama is responsible for the the economic crisis. . . ”• “(Straw man of choice) is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

But people rarely subject these claims to any sort of test.Theories allow us to adjudicate between competingexplanations.

Page 5: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Why (causal) theories?

In everyday speech, people make causal statements all the time. . .

• “The poor are responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Wall Street is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Bush is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Obama is responsible for the the economic crisis. . . ”• “(Straw man of choice) is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

But people rarely subject these claims to any sort of test.Theories allow us to adjudicate between competingexplanations.

Page 6: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Why (causal) theories?

In everyday speech, people make causal statements all the time. . .• “The poor are responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

• “Wall Street is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Bush is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Obama is responsible for the the economic crisis. . . ”• “(Straw man of choice) is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

But people rarely subject these claims to any sort of test.Theories allow us to adjudicate between competingexplanations.

Page 7: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Why (causal) theories?

In everyday speech, people make causal statements all the time. . .• “The poor are responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Wall Street is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

• “Bush is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Obama is responsible for the the economic crisis. . . ”• “(Straw man of choice) is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

But people rarely subject these claims to any sort of test.Theories allow us to adjudicate between competingexplanations.

Page 8: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Why (causal) theories?

In everyday speech, people make causal statements all the time. . .• “The poor are responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Wall Street is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Bush is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

• “Obama is responsible for the the economic crisis. . . ”• “(Straw man of choice) is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

But people rarely subject these claims to any sort of test.Theories allow us to adjudicate between competingexplanations.

Page 9: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Why (causal) theories?

In everyday speech, people make causal statements all the time. . .• “The poor are responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Wall Street is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Bush is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Obama is responsible for the the economic crisis. . . ”

• “(Straw man of choice) is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

But people rarely subject these claims to any sort of test.Theories allow us to adjudicate between competingexplanations.

Page 10: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Why (causal) theories?

In everyday speech, people make causal statements all the time. . .• “The poor are responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Wall Street is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Bush is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Obama is responsible for the the economic crisis. . . ”• “(Straw man of choice) is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

But people rarely subject these claims to any sort of test.Theories allow us to adjudicate between competingexplanations.

Page 11: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Why (causal) theories?

In everyday speech, people make causal statements all the time. . .• “The poor are responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Wall Street is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Bush is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Obama is responsible for the the economic crisis. . . ”• “(Straw man of choice) is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

But people rarely subject these claims to any sort of test.

Theories allow us to adjudicate between competingexplanations.

Page 12: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Why (causal) theories?

In everyday speech, people make causal statements all the time. . .• “The poor are responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Wall Street is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Bush is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”• “Obama is responsible for the the economic crisis. . . ”• “(Straw man of choice) is responsible for the economic crisis. . . ”

But people rarely subject these claims to any sort of test.Theories allow us to adjudicate between competingexplanations.

Page 13: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

What is a theory?

There are at least 2 types:

Good: Bad:

FalsifiablePractical

“Scientific”

UnfalsifiableImpractical

“Unscientific”

6=

" $

Page 14: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

What is a theory?

There are at least 2 types:

Good: Bad:

FalsifiablePractical

“Scientific”

UnfalsifiableImpractical

“Unscientific”

6=

" $

Page 15: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

What is a theory?

There are at least 2 types:

Good:

Bad:

FalsifiablePractical

“Scientific”

UnfalsifiableImpractical

“Unscientific”

6=

" $

Page 16: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

What is a theory?

There are at least 2 types:

Good: Bad:

FalsifiablePractical

“Scientific”

UnfalsifiableImpractical

“Unscientific”

6=

" $

Page 17: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

What is a theory?

There are at least 2 types:

Good: Bad:

FalsifiablePractical

“Scientific”

UnfalsifiableImpractical

“Unscientific”

6=

" $

Page 18: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

What is a theory?

There are at least 2 types:

Good: Bad:

FalsifiablePractical

“Scientific”

UnfalsifiableImpractical

“Unscientific”

6=

" $

Page 19: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

What is a theory?

There are at least 2 types:

Good: Bad:

FalsifiablePractical

“Scientific”

UnfalsifiableImpractical

“Unscientific”

6=

" $

Page 20: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

What is a theory?

There are at least 2 types:

Good: Bad:

FalsifiablePractical

“Scientific”

UnfalsifiableImpractical

“Unscientific”

6=

" $

Page 21: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Scientific or Unscientific?

“God speed the plow. . . By this wonderful provision, which is only man’smastery over nature, the clouds are dispensing copious rains. . . [theplow] is the instrument which separates civilization from savagery; andconverts a desert into a farm or garden. . . . To be more concise, Rainfollows the plow.”1

1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rain_follows_the_plow

Page 22: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 23: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity

"

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 24: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 25: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat”

"

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 26: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 27: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way”

$

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 28: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 29: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics

"

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 30: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 31: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael”

"

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 32: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 33: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting”

$

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 34: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 35: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book)

$

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 36: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 37: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory

"

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 38: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 39: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class"

"

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 40: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 41: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology

$

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 42: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 43: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Good or Bad Theory?THEORY GOOD?

Theory of Gravity "

“The Earth is flat” "

“The Earth is flat because Zeus made it that way” $

Aristotelean Physics "

“My name is Michael” "

“The number 19 is uninteresting” $

The Secret (book) $

Miasmic disease theory "

"Gov 50 is my favorite class" "

Freudian Psychology $

• Note: the fact that a theory is good or “scientific” is not the same as sayingit is correct. To establish “correctness” requires a scientific theory, but theexistence of a theory does not make it “correct.”

Page 44: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

GAME THEORY

Page 45: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s DilemmaTo solve this game, imagine you are Player 1.

We will find your best response toPlayer 2’s actions regardless of what he or she chooses.Let’s first look at the case where Player 2 always chooses C .

C

D

"

C DPlayer 2

Player 1

(3, 3) (−20, 4)

(4, −20) (2, 2)

In this case, you clearly prefer to defect, since 4 > 3.

Page 46: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s DilemmaTo solve this game, imagine you are Player 1. We will find your best response toPlayer 2’s actions regardless of what he or she chooses.

Let’s first look at the case where Player 2 always chooses C .

C

D

"

C DPlayer 2

Player 1

(3, 3) (−20, 4)

(4, −20) (2, 2)

In this case, you clearly prefer to defect, since 4 > 3.

Page 47: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s DilemmaTo solve this game, imagine you are Player 1. We will find your best response toPlayer 2’s actions regardless of what he or she chooses.Let’s first look at the case where Player 2 always chooses C .

C

D

"

C DPlayer 2

Player 1

(3, 3) (−20, 4)

(4, −20) (2, 2)

In this case, you clearly prefer to defect, since 4 > 3.

Page 48: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s DilemmaTo solve this game, imagine you are Player 1. We will find your best response toPlayer 2’s actions regardless of what he or she chooses.Let’s first look at the case where Player 2 always chooses C .

C

D

"

C

D

Player 2

Player 1

(3, 3)

(−20, 4)

(4, −20)

(2, 2)

In this case, you clearly prefer to defect, since 4 > 3.

Page 49: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s DilemmaTo solve this game, imagine you are Player 1. We will find your best response toPlayer 2’s actions regardless of what he or she chooses.Let’s first look at the case where Player 2 always chooses C .

C

D"

C

D

Player 2

Player 1

(3, 3) (−20, 4)

(4, −20)

(2, 2)

In this case, you clearly prefer to defect, since 4 > 3.

Page 50: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s Dilemma

But what about the case where Player 2 always chooses D?

C

D

"

C DPlayer 2

Player 1

(3, 3) (−20, 4)

(4, −20) (2, 2)

In this case, you clearly prefer to defect, since 2 > −20.

Page 51: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s Dilemma

But what about the case where Player 2 always chooses D?

C

D

"

C

DPlayer 2

Player 1

(3, 3)

(−20, 4)

(4, −20)

(2, 2)

In this case, you clearly prefer to defect, since 2 > −20.

Page 52: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s Dilemma

But what about the case where Player 2 always chooses D?

C

D"

C

DPlayer 2

Player 1

(3, 3) (−20, 4)

(4, −20)

(2, 2)

In this case, you clearly prefer to defect, since 2 > −20.

Page 53: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s DilemmaSo now we know that you (Player 1) want to defect regardless of what Player 2chooses.

Knowing this, what should Player 2 do?Let’s now look at the game from Player 2’s perspective.

D

C DPlayer 2

Player 1

(4, 1) (2, 2)

Nash Equilibrium

Page 54: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s DilemmaSo now we know that you (Player 1) want to defect regardless of what Player 2chooses. Knowing this, what should Player 2 do?

Let’s now look at the game from Player 2’s perspective.

D

C DPlayer 2

Player 1

(4, 1) (2, 2)

Nash Equilibrium

Page 55: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s DilemmaSo now we know that you (Player 1) want to defect regardless of what Player 2chooses. Knowing this, what should Player 2 do?Let’s now look at the game from Player 2’s perspective.

D

C DPlayer 2

Player 1

(4, 1) (2, 2)

Nash Equilibrium

Page 56: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Review of Prisoner’s DilemmaSo now we know that you (Player 1) want to defect regardless of what Player 2chooses. Knowing this, what should Player 2 do?Let’s now look at the game from Player 2’s perspective.

D

C

DPlayer 2

Player 1

(4, 1)

(2, 2)

Nash Equilibrium

Page 57: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory

Are these two games the same?

Yes. . .

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

(5, 5) (0, 10)

(10, 0) (1, 1)

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

(3, 3) (−5, 4)

(4, −5) (0, 0)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 58: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory

Are these two games the same?

Yes. . .

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Game 1

(5, 5) (0, 10)

(10, 0) (1, 1)

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Game 2

(3, 3) (−5, 4)

(4, −5) (0, 0)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 59: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory

Are these two games the same?

Yes. . .

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Game 1

(5, 5) (0, 10)

(10, 0) (1, 1)

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Game 2

(3, 3) (−5, 4)

(4, −5) (0, 0)

Nash Equilibrium

Pareto Efficient

Page 60: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory

Are these two games the same?

Yes. . .

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Game 1

(5, 5) (0, 10)

(10, 0) (1, 1)

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Game 2

(3, 3) (−5, 4)

(4, −5) (0, 0)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 61: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory

Are these two games the same?

Yes. . .

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

(5, 5) (0, 10)

(10, 0) (1, 1)

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Game 2

(3, 3) (−5, 4)

(4, −5) (0, 0)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 62: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory

Are these two games the same?

Yes. . .

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

(5, 5) (0, 10)

(10, 0) (1, 1)

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

Game 2

(3, 3) (−5, 4)

(4, −5) (0, 0)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 63: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory

Are these two games the same?

Yes. . .

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

(5, 5) (0, 10)

(10, 0) (1, 1)

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

(3, 3) (−5, 4)

(4, −5) (0, 0)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 64: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory

Are these two games the same? Yes. . .

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

(5, 5) (0, 10)

(10, 0) (1, 1)

C

D

C D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

(3, 3) (−5, 4)

(4, −5) (0, 0)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 65: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

So What is Pareto Efficiency?

What Game is This?

Prisoner’s Dilemma

P1

P2

(D, D)

(C , C)

(D, C)

(C , D)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Page 66: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

So What is Pareto Efficiency?

What Game is This?

Prisoner’s Dilemma

P1

P2

(D, D)

(C , C)

(D, C)

(C , D)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Page 67: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

So What is Pareto Efficiency?

What Game is This? Prisoner’s Dilemma

P1

P2

(D, D)

(C , C)

(D, C)

(C , D)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Page 68: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

So What is Pareto Efficiency?

Prisoner’s Dilemma

P1

P2

(D, D)

(C , C)

(D, C)

(C , D)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Page 69: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

So What is Pareto Efficiency?

Prisoner’s Dilemma

P1

P2

(D, D)

(C , C)

(D, C)

(C , D)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Page 70: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

So What is Pareto Efficiency?

Prisoner’s Dilemma

P1

P2

(D, D)

(C , C)

(D, C)

(C , D)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Page 71: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

So What is Pareto Efficiency?

Prisoner’s Dilemma

P1

P2

(D, D)

(C , C)

(D, C)

(C , D)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Page 72: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

So What is Pareto Efficiency?

Prisoner’s Dilemma

P1

P2

(D, D)

(C , C)

(D, C)

(C , D)

0 1 2 3 40

1

2

3

4

Pareto Improved

Page 73: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory (Contd.)

Are these two games the same?

No. . .

C

D

C D

Chicken Game

(0, 0) (−5, 10)

(10, −5) (−50, −50)

C

D

C D

Battle of the Sexes

(3, 2) (1, 1)

(1, 1) (2, 3)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 74: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory (Contd.)

Are these two games the same?

No. . .

C

D

C D

Chicken Game

Game 1

(0, 0) (−5, 10)

(10, −5) (−50, −50)

C

D

C D

Battle of the Sexes

Game 2

(3, 2) (1, 1)

(1, 1) (2, 3)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 75: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory (Contd.)

Are these two games the same?

No. . .

C

D

C D

Chicken Game

Game 1

(0, 0) (−5, 10)

(10, −5) (−50, −50)

C

D

C D

Battle of the Sexes

Game 2

(3, 2) (1, 1)

(1, 1) (2, 3)

Nash Equilibrium

Pareto Efficient

Page 76: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory (Contd.)

Are these two games the same?

No. . .

C

D

C D

Chicken Game

Game 1

(0, 0) (−5, 10)

(10, −5) (−50, −50)

C

D

C D

Battle of the Sexes

Game 2

(3, 2) (1, 1)

(1, 1) (2, 3)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 77: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory (Contd.)

Are these two games the same?

No. . .

C

D

C D

Chicken Game

(0, 0) (−5, 10)

(10, −5) (−50, −50)

C

D

C D

Battle of the Sexes

Game 2

(3, 2) (1, 1)

(1, 1) (2, 3)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 78: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory (Contd.)

Are these two games the same?

No. . .

C

D

C D

Chicken Game

(0, 0) (−5, 10)

(10, −5) (−50, −50)

C

D

C D

Battle of the Sexes

Game 2

(3, 2) (1, 1)

(1, 1) (2, 3)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 79: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory (Contd.)

Are these two games the same?

No. . .

C

D

C D

Chicken Game

(0, 0) (−5, 10)

(10, −5) (−50, −50)

C

D

C D

Battle of the Sexes

Game 2

(3, 2) (1, 1)

(1, 1) (2, 3)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 80: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory (Contd.)

Are these two games the same?

No. . .

C

D

C D

Chicken Game

(0, 0) (−5, 10)

(10, −5) (−50, −50)

C

D

C D

Battle of the Sexes

(3, 2) (1, 1)

(1, 1) (2, 3)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient

Page 81: Unit 1: Theories and Game TheoryUnit 1: Theories and Game Theory Michael Gill Dept. of Government, Harvard University Sept 14, 2011

Basic Game Theory (Contd.)

Are these two games the same? No. . .

C

D

C D

Chicken Game

(0, 0) (−5, 10)

(10, −5) (−50, −50)

C

D

C D

Battle of the Sexes

(3, 2) (1, 1)

(1, 1) (2, 3)

Nash Equilibrium Pareto Efficient