uni wwa deptgeol_wwd_lecture
DESCRIPTION
Lecture given on World Water Day 2011 on educational needs for professionals working in the 2030’s in environmental sustainability. Present educational curricula may not fully respond to future demands that professionals will have to be responsible for.TRANSCRIPT
Warsaw March 2011
What talents should the What talents should the hydrogeologist of the 2030’s have, hydrogeologist of the 2030’s have,
to be successful, in a rapidly to be successful, in a rapidly changing world?changing world?
Shammy PuriShammy PuriSecretary General, International Association of Secretary General, International Association of
HydrogeologistsHydrogeologistsChair, IAH TARM CommissionChair, IAH TARM Commission
Co Chair UNESCO-ISARM ProgrammeCo Chair UNESCO-ISARM Programme
University of Warsaw Department of Geology
World Water Day Lecture March 2011
Warsaw March 2011
BaselineBaseline Talents…….observation, judgement & observation, judgement &
perceptionperception Hydrogeologists …pure science, pure science,
applied practitioner, policy orientated, applied practitioner, policy orientated, socio-economical, legal..?socio-economical, legal..?
2030’s……only two decades from nowtwo decades from now Success….. Measured in personal Measured in personal
wealth or ability to make a change in wealth or ability to make a change in the world?the world?
Rapidly changing world …. “the class “the class of 1970…”of 1970…”
Warsaw March 2011
Structure of the Structure of the lecturelecture
Three parts:Three parts:
The evolving science & global issuesThe evolving science & global issues Is there a response? … the IAH Is there a response? … the IAH
Krakow Declaration – link to ‘Poland Krakow Declaration – link to ‘Poland 2030’ strategy2030’ strategy
Restructuring the coal sector of Restructuring the coal sector of Ukraine – from hydrogeology to Ukraine – from hydrogeology to hydro-economics .. and beyondhydro-economics .. and beyond
Warsaw March 2011
Changes “the class of Changes “the class of 1970”1970”
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What its about..What its about..
Between 2010 and 2060 the world will change in Between 2010 and 2060 the world will change in some predictable and some unpredictable ways..some predictable and some unpredictable ways..
Social Capacity & Institutional restructuring for Social Capacity & Institutional restructuring for the predictable changes can be envisaged; but the predictable changes can be envisaged; but for the unpredictable, … can we plan? for the unpredictable, … can we plan?
From the practitioners perspective – what kind of From the practitioners perspective – what kind of ‘expert’ do we need to be training & preparing ‘expert’ do we need to be training & preparing for the next decade – two decades., etc?for the next decade – two decades., etc?
Lessons from the study of the Coal Sector of Lessons from the study of the Coal Sector of UkraineUkraine
Some concluding remarksSome concluding remarks
Warsaw March 2011
Present day focus..Present day focus.. Present day focus is on diagnosis, Present day focus is on diagnosis,
categorisation and inventory. categorisation and inventory. We need a dynamic that focuses on We need a dynamic that focuses on problem problem
solving.solving. Past 50 years have shown that the worlds Past 50 years have shown that the worlds
ecological needs have to move from ecological needs have to move from ‘preservation’ to readjustment and adaptation ‘preservation’ to readjustment and adaptation in a rapidly changing environment. in a rapidly changing environment.
Effort has to be directed to build ecological Effort has to be directed to build ecological resilience and to move from ‘knowledge’ to resilience and to move from ‘knowledge’ to wisdom about the ecosystems. wisdom about the ecosystems.
So, a new approach to education and So, a new approach to education and preparation ?? preparation ??
Warsaw March 2011
Past methods & future Past methods & future needsneeds
Warsaw March 2011
Uncertain & complex ?Uncertain & complex ?
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What do we perceive..?What do we perceive..?
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the evidence is therethe evidence is there
Warsaw March 2011
Changes are needed ..Changes are needed .. Perceptions that need to Perceptions that need to
change …. management change …. management of aquifers – both of aquifers – both national and national and transboundary. transboundary.
Aquifers are not just Aquifers are not just sources for sources for ‘groundwaters’ but they ‘groundwaters’ but they constitute ‘sub surface constitute ‘sub surface space’, to be wisely space’, to be wisely managed, as a medium managed, as a medium for several and multiple for several and multiple uses and needs. uses and needs.
Warsaw March 2011
Point of reference..? Point of reference..?
Warsaw March 2011
How could hydro’s fit How could hydro’s fit in?in?
Warsaw March 2011
In-situ gasification - In-situ gasification - aquifersaquifers
Warsaw March 2011
IAH’s Forward LookIAH’s Forward Look Quote ……… “in 50 years time, the Quote ……… “in 50 years time, the
Hydrogeologist will benefit from the Hydrogeologist will benefit from the unachievable today ability to interpret, unachievable today ability to interpret, visualise, analyse and predict aquifer visualise, analyse and predict aquifer behaviours in the subsurface, and behaviours in the subsurface, and communicate with fellow communicate with fellow hydrogeologists (and others) through hydrogeologists (and others) through holographic virtual meetings and holographic virtual meetings and discussions” discussions”
In many countries thoughtful people In many countries thoughtful people are looking ahead … eg “Poland 2030” are looking ahead … eg “Poland 2030” … preparing for changes…… preparing for changes…
Warsaw March 2011
Krakow Declaration Krakow Declaration follow upfollow up
International Programme for New Dimensions International Programme for New Dimensions in the application of Ecohydrogeologyin the application of Ecohydrogeology
Purpose:Purpose: to resolve forthcoming to resolve forthcoming environmental issues stimulated by climate environmental issues stimulated by climate variability intensificationvariability intensification
How: How: education of experts & technicians education of experts & technicians educated to meet the challenges of the future educated to meet the challenges of the future needs – needs –
Where:Where: in implementing major water & in implementing major water & ecohydrogeological investments ecohydrogeological investments
Why:Why: as a response to the plans in such global as a response to the plans in such global programmes as IHP VIIIth Phase, EU Water programmes as IHP VIIIth Phase, EU Water Initiative & UN ECE Environment for EuropeInitiative & UN ECE Environment for Europe
Warsaw March 2011
New directions…New directions…Krakow Declaration
Follow up
Universities Governmentpartnership
Intnl Prog New Directions in the
application of ECOHYDROGEOLOGY
To resolve forthcoming environmental problems stimulated by global climate variability
Through education of experts to meet the challenges of the future needs – implement major water &
ecohydrogeological investments
Attract trainees from EECCA to undergo a new programme of education
Responding to needs & priorities in
UNESCO IHP VIIth & VIIIth Phase
EU Water Initiative –focus on EECCA
UN ECE’s Environment for Europe Process
Warsaw March 2011
Coal Sector of UkraineCoal Sector of Ukraine
Warsaw March 2011
Conceptual ApproachConceptual Approach
UNDERGROUND MINING
HEATING POWER
spoil tips
fugitive gas emissions - methane
solid waste - tailings
liquid waste – water slurry
sediments
polluted ground water
contaminated soil
blown dust
Aim: Production cost reduction & achieving environmental gains
Warsaw March 2011
Mines in the Donbass Mines in the Donbass regionregion
Warsaw March 2011
Business as Usual analysisBusiness as Usual analysis
Warsaw March 2011
Deconvoluting the Deconvoluting the componentscomponents
Annual Coal production
Annual cost of production (due to by-products)
Market price of coal
Annual mining spoil produced
Annual water pumped
Amount of methane vented
Environmental charges paid
Cost of Spoil Mgmt & disposal
Depth of mine workings
Lost value of vented methane
Cost of pumping & water managment
Warsaw March 2011
BaU AnalyserBaU Analyser
Annual Coal mining from 161 Mines in Donbass & Lviv-Wolin
Market Price of Coal UAH/T
Environment related costs in production & sector management: BaU model will help to identify where savings / optimisation most effective
Costs of Production UAH / T
Analyse & forecast coal demand from 2010 to 2030
Analyse & forecast market price of coal
Analyse & forecast cost of production
Calculate total cost of production
Depending on national & export demand ,
Estimate total value of equity in coal market, home & external
If profit margins become under pressure, what
cost reductions can be made ?
Totally revise data collection & management
Review & analyse Production costs e.g. costs due to poor environmental management
Review & improve management of;
SpoilSlurry
Water pumping
Optimise the costs of by-products
Capture & utilisation of methane that is vented
Business as Usual – analysis for the period 2010 - 2030
CAPITAL + LABOUR + TECHNOLOGY = PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH & EFFICIENCY
Warsaw March 2011
Base data from 220 Base data from 220 minesmines
Name of the mine 2010 "initial" 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1 Trudovskaya 330.7 327.4 324.1 320.9 317.7 314.5 311.4 308.3
2 Yuzhnodonbasskaya #3 968.1 958.4 948.9 939.4 930.0 920.7 911.5 902.4
3 Lidievka 43.0 42.6 42.2 41.7 41.3 40.9 40.5 40.1 4 Skochinskogo 569.5 563.8 558.2 552.6 547.1 541.6 536.2 530.9 5 Abakumova 211.1 209.0 206.9 204.8 202.8 200.7 198.7 196.8 6 Oktyabrskiy rudnik 190.2 188.3 186.4 184.6 182.7 180.9 179.1 177.3 7 Putilovskaya 16.1 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.0 8 Kalinina 169.7 168.0 166.3 164.7 163.0 161.4 159.8 158.2 9 Mospinskaya 50.7 50.2 49.7 49.2 48.7 48.2 47.7 47.2 10 Cheluskintsev 175.1 173.3 171.6 169.9 168.2 166.5 164.8 163.2 11 #4-21 31.8 31.5 31.2 30.9 30.6 30.2 29.9 29.6 12 #1/3 Novogradovska 423.9 419.6 415.4 411.3 407.2 403.1 399.1 395.1 13 Rossia 725.7 718.5 711.3 704.2 697.1 690.2 683.3 676.4 14 Ukraina 182.5 180.7 178.9 177.1 175.3 173.6 171.8 170.1
Projected
production
Name of the mine 2010 "initial" 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Trudovskaya 326087.1 329282.8 332509.8 335768.4 339058.9 342381.7 345737.0 349125.2Yuzhnodonbasskaya #3954554.1 963908.8 973355.1 982894.0 992526.3 1002253.1 1012075.2 1021993.5Lidievka 42404.5 42820.1 43239.7 43663.4 44091.3 44523.4 44959.8 45400.4Skochinskogo 561561.3 567064.6 572621.9 578233.6 583900.3 589622.5 595400.8 601235.7Abakumova 208132.4 210172.1 212231.8 214311.7 216411.9 218532.8 220674.4 222837.0Oktyabrskiy rudnik 187556.6 189394.7 191250.7 193125.0 195017.6 196928.8 198858.7 200807.5Putilovskaya 15868.9 16024.4 16181.5 16340.0 16500.2 16661.9 16825.2 16990.0Kalinina 167324.8 168964.5 170620.4 172292.5 173980.9 175685.9 177407.7 179146.3Mospinskaya 49970.5 50460.2 50954.7 51454.0 51958.3 52467.5 52981.7 53500.9Cheluskintsev 172629.5 174321.3 176029.6 177754.7 179496.7 181255.8 183032.1 184825.8#4-21 31361.1 31668.4 31978.8 32292.2 32608.6 32928.2 33250.9 33576.8#1/3 Novogradovska 379219.9 382936.3 386689.1 390478.6 394305.3 398169.5 402071.6 406011.9Rossia 649262.7 655625.4 662050.6 668538.7 675090.3 681706.2 688387.0 695133.1UkrainaKurakhovskaKorotchenkoKarla MarxaBulavinskayaOlkhovatskayaUglegorskayaYenakievskayaPoltavskaya
1 MayaChapayeva17 Part SyezdIlovayskayaKommunistTkachukaЗФ Шахтарська 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0ProgressLutuginaKiseliovaШ/у ВолинськеZaryaSevernayaUdarnik
Forecast costs of
production
Analysis from 161 mines
Warsaw March 2011
BaU model BaU model parametersparameters
Select the rate of increase of coal production from 2011 to 2030 – 3% per annum assumed
1.03
Adjusted cost of production from 2009 to 2010, as an initial change (2% hike in costs)
1.02
Ann rate of reduction in the cost of production from 2010 to 2030 – production cost in 2030 reduces to 283 UAH / T – 4% per annum assumed
0.96
Adjusted market price from 2009 to 2010, as an initial change (1 = no change)
1
Ann rate of change of the market price from 2010 to 2030 …. Progressively increased to rise at the rate of 1% per annum – market price would rise to 518 UAH / T in 2030
1.01
Warsaw March 2011
Cost reductions for Cost reductions for environmental gainsenvironmental gains
EC Coal Sector Policy Support Programme, Ukraine - Component on Environment
Analysis of "Business as Usual" for environmental managementProjection of Operational Conditions 2010 to 2030
BASIC SECTOR DEVELOPMENT ASSUMPTIONSAnnual rate of change in Coal Production from 2011 is (factor) 1.03Coal Production in 2010 is 45986 (x 1000 T)
2030 is 83055 (x 1000 T)
Factor for adjusting 2010 COST of production, ref to 2008 / 2009 1.02Annual rate of change in cost of production from 2011 is (factor) 0.96Cost of production in 2010 is 640 UAH / Tonne
2030 is 283 UAH / Tonne
Factor for adjusting MARKET PRICE for coal ref to 2008 / 2009 1Annual rate of change in market price from 2011 is (factor) 1.01Market Price for coal in 2010 is 425 UAH / Tonne
2030 is 518 UAH / Tonne
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT COSTS
Spoil Cutting, Lifting and ManagementAnnual rate if change in spoil management efficiency in 2011 0.98Unit cost incurred in spoil disposal - in UAH per Tonne of spoil 110 UAH / Tonne
Coal Washing slurry managementFactor for adjusting % of slurry from coal produced 0.94Unit cost of slurry management in UAH per Tonne of slurry 50 UAH / Tonne
Mine water pumping & its manageemntAnnual rate in change of water pumping management from 2011 0.95Unit cost of managing all mine waters - operating & closed but pumping 55 UAH /m3/T of coal
Methane & related gas management Note Methane production is a function of coal production & changes as coal prodcution amount is fixed (above)Methane production of 2008 is used as the base conditionCost of unmanaged methane per tonne of methane released 55 UAH / Tonne
Environmental charges & fines incurredNote Environmnetal charges are a functuon of the annual coal production & change with the rate set aboveEnvironmental chages of 2008 is used as the base conditiion
Summary 2010 2030Production cost of mining coal Bn UAH 29.44 23.51Costs attributed to poor environmental mgmt Bn UAH 13.15 21.46Sum of Unit Env costs (exc Env Charges) as % of Cost 42%Market value of the sale of coal Bn UAH 19.52 43.02
Costs in Mining Sector from Environmental Management
0.0
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Business as Usual 2010 - 2030
Bn
UA
H /
yr
(lo
g s
ca
le)
Annual Cost of Production Market Value of Coal
Costs arising from spoil production" Costs arising from discharge of mine water
Costs arising from coal washing slurry Cost arising from unmanaged methane release
Costs of environmental charges & fines Costs due to mine water discharge
Warsaw March 2011
Chaotic investments Chaotic investments give no benefitsgive no benefits
Costs in Mining Sector from Environmental Management
0.0
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Business as Usual 2010 - 2030
Bn
UA
H /
yr
(lo
g s
ca
le)
Annual Cost of Production Market Value of Coal
Costs arising from spoil production" Costs arising from discharge of mine water
Costs arising from coal washing slurry Cost arising from unmanaged methane release
Costs of environmental charges & fines Costs due to mine water discharge
Costs in Mining Sector from Environmental Management
0.0
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.020
10
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Business as Usual 2010 - 2030
Bn
UA
H /
yr
(lo
g s
ca
le)
Annual Cost of Production Market Value of Coal
Costs arising from spoil production" Costs arising from discharge of mine water
Costs arising from coal washing slurry Cost arising from unmanaged methane release
Costs of environmental charges & fines Costs due to mine water discharge
Warsaw March 2011
Transformation is Transformation is possible !!possible !!
Settling basins Storage and transport of tailings Area for re-vegetationWater management into vegetated area
Water features
Warsaw March 2011
Sector reform processSector reform process
Restructuring of the Coal Sector of
Ukraine – transformation
from loss making State owned agencies to a
Regulatory Agency & independent
economic operators involved in mining,
& its service industry
Wind down the operation of the Ministry* – Three new independent Agencies with separate responsibilities established by Presidential Decree
Regulator; Self governing Coal Authority reporting to the Cabinet of Ministers
Coal Development Fund (CDF)– financed through concessional funds (e.g. IBRD / EBRD), with all usual safeguards
Mine Closure & Environmental Remediation Agency
All subordinate Agencies of former Ministry to be hived off or made into 100% commercial companies – includes Mining Associations, Design Institutes & quasi regulatory bodies eg RESPIRATOR, etc
Licensing & audit functions only
Loans to viable enterprises and profitable Mine IEO
Redundant mines transferred to MCER for closure
All Mine Associations converted to IEO with 51% shares with government; 49% with the Association –transparent Annual Reporting ; coal mining will be in response to Sector strategies & licensing requirements analysed through tools such as the Business as Usual approach – (see Vol. IV, Comp E). Eventually majority ownership transferred to IEO.
Existing, viable Mine Associations re-licensed automatically for 1st 2 years, then re-apply for a new term, based on compliance to licensing requirements
18 months 12 months 10 year operational programme for mining & remediation24 months
All research institutes, design institutes, etc operating as independent institutes servicing the Coal Sector, on open competitive basis
* NOTE On the 9th Dec 2010 by Order no 1085/2010, the MoCI was transferred to the Ministry of Fuel & Energy – as a Department responsible for coal mining. However, the key changes suggested in this diagram still apply to the Sector.
A 10 year programme of mine closure & remediation implemented according to set standards as recommended in Comp E, Volume IV; financing through Concessional loan funds, commercialised operations & trading the spent assets of bought closed mines; orderly disposal of assets or divestments to interested & viable operators
Warsaw March 2011
Summary: what to doSummary: what to do Cost reductions are possible, Cost reductions are possible, but only effective if a well planned and suitably but only effective if a well planned and suitably
programmed approach is adoptedprogrammed approach is adopted Modest improvements in Modest improvements in
management of the mining spoil, the management of the mining spoil, the improved management of the volume and rate of improved management of the volume and rate of
mine dewatering, mine dewatering, capture and the utilisation of the vented methane capture and the utilisation of the vented methane
lead to making coal competitive to the market price lead to making coal competitive to the market price and this could be achieved within 5 to 7 years. and this could be achieved within 5 to 7 years.
Beyond this, even with modest increase in Beyond this, even with modest increase in production of coal, the costs would be below the production of coal, the costs would be below the market price, the impact on the environmental market price, the impact on the environmental would ameliorated and the potential for a profitable would ameliorated and the potential for a profitable sector would appear to be good through to 2030.sector would appear to be good through to 2030.
Warsaw March 2011
In the future….In the future…. The hydrogeologist of the future will The hydrogeologist of the future will
need need something old, something something old, something new, something borrowed and new, something borrowed and something elsesomething else.... .... (Devlin 2004)(Devlin 2004)
…… …… working in an Agency that will working in an Agency that will suit his / her ability to solve the suit his / her ability to solve the contemporaneous problems ….of the contemporaneous problems ….of the day … including lack of funding………..day … including lack of funding………..
So, the hydrogeologist will have to rely So, the hydrogeologist will have to rely on “man’s best friend” for data on “man’s best friend” for data collection and field observations…collection and field observations…
Warsaw March 2011
Concluding remarksConcluding remarks
Change is afoot….. new style of Change is afoot….. new style of education & preparation is required education & preparation is required for those who will be in the field by for those who will be in the field by 2020 & beyond 2020 & beyond
Institutions will react sporadically – Institutions will react sporadically – experts will need to be in place & experts will need to be in place & ready to assist decision makersready to assist decision makers
Technology & science alone will be Technology & science alone will be insufficient – convincing argument insufficient – convincing argument will give support to innovationwill give support to innovation
The needs of the future start today…!The needs of the future start today…!
Warsaw March 2011
Thanks you for your attention !Questions? Contact: [email protected]/water/isarm www.iah.org/isarm