understanding the intel/micron 3d xpoint · pdf fileunderstanding the intel/micron 3d xpoint...

2015 Storage Developer Conference. © Objective Analysis. All Rights Reserved.

Understanding the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory

Jim Handy Objective Analysis


Agenda

What Is It? Why Is This Happening? Who Wants It? Is The World Ready For It? Why Should I Care? When Will This Happen?

2


Agenda


3


3D XPoint Concept

4


The Real Thing

5


Intel Has Researched PCM For 45 Years!

6


How Many Ways Have Been Tried?

7


Agenda


8


NAND Laid The Path To Increased Hierarchy Levels

9

$0.10

$1.00

$10.00

$100.00

$1,000.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ave

rage

Pric

e pe

r Gig

abyt

e

DRAM

NAND

Source: A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint Memory, Objective Analysis 2015


Ratio of DRAM-NAND Prices

10

0X

2X

4X

6X

8X

10X

12X

14X

16X

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Rat

io o

f DR

AM

to N

AN

D P

rice

per G

B



Why This? Why Now?

11

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+05

1.E+06

1.E+07

1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06Price per Gigabyte

Ban

dwid

th (M

B/s

)

Tape

HDD

DRAM

L3

L2

L1

101

100

102

103

104

105

106

107

101 102 103 104 105 10610010-1

Semiconductor memories becoming faster and cheaper

Disks becoming cheaper, but no faster

Result:Speed gap is widening



Where 3D XPoint Fits In The Memory/Storage Hierarchy

12

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+05

1.E+06

1.E+07

1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06

Ban

dwid

th (M

B/s

)

Price per Gigabyte

Tape

HDD

SSD

DRAM

L3

L2

L1

101

100

102

103

104

105

106

107

101 102 103 104 105 10610010-1

3DXPoint



Agenda


13


Patents Leaked Intel’s Plans

14


How Much Does XPoint Help?

15


3D XPoint’s Place in the Memory/Storage Hierarchy

16


Great Gains at Low Queue Depths

17


Clear, But Complex Economic Benefits

18


Agenda


19


About That Timing…

Timing is good because: DRAM is running out

of speed NVDIMMs are

catching on Some sysadmins

understand how to use flash to reduce DRAM needs

Timing is bad because: Nobody can make it

economically No software supports

SCM New layers take time

to establish

20


Agenda


21


What 3D XPoint Means To You

Better cost/performance ratio Lower power consumption Less DRAM More performance per server Lower OpEx

In-memory databases start to make sense

22


Agenda


23


When Will It Ship?

24


The Issue of Learning

25

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000

Aver

age

Pric

e pe

r Gig

abyt

e

Cumulative Gigabyte Shipments Over Time (Thousands)

DRAM Learning Curve



Server DRAM Gigabyte Forecasts: With/Without 3D XPoint

26

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ann

ual G

igab

yte

Ship

men

ts (M

illio

ns)

Without 3D XPointWith 3D XPoint



Server DRAM Revenue Forecasts: With/Without 3D XPoint

27

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Ann

ual D

RA

M R

even

ues

($B

illio

ns)

Without 3D XPointWith 3D XPoint



3D XPoint Optimistic Server Revenues

28

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

2017 2018 2019

Ann

ual 3

D X

Poin

t Rev

enue

s ($

Bill

ions

)



Summary What Is It?

A New, fast, cheap crosspoint memory Why Is This Happening?

The market’s ready, and memory can’t keep up Who Wants It?

Everyone… eventually! Is The World Ready For It?

Not yet Why Should I Care?

It has a direct impact on your systems When Will This Happen?

Launch, 2016. Big impact, much later 29


Resources A Close Look at the Intel/Micron 3D XPoint

Memory, Objective Analysis, September 2015: http://Objective-Analysis.com/Reports.html#XPoint

How PC NAND Will Undermine DRAM, Objective Analysis, 2011: http://Objective-Analysis.com/Reports.html#DRAM-NAND

Intel/Micron 3D XPoint introduction: http://newsroom.intel.com/docs/DOC-6713

Intel Developer Forum (IDF) 2015 presentations: http://myeventagenda.com/sessions/0B9F4191-1C29-408A-8B61-65D7520025A8/7/5

Micron Summer Analyst Day: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-45YXOQ/363551033x0x846418/07F3EDAB-8D71-4F5D-BFB9-139E9EE1AB0F/2015_Summer_Analyst_Day_Presentation_V31.pdf

30

http://objective-analysis.com/Reports.html%23XPoint

http://objective-analysis.com/Reports.html%23DRAM-NAND

http://newsroom.intel.com/docs/DOC-6713

http://myeventagenda.com/sessions/0B9F4191-1C29-408A-8B61-65D7520025A8/7/5

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-45YXOQ/363551033x0x846418/07F3EDAB-8D71-4F5D-BFB9-139E9EE1AB0F/2015_Summer_Analyst_Day_Presentation_V31.pdf

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-45YXOQ/363551033x0x846418/07F3EDAB-8D71-4F5D-BFB9-139E9EE1AB0F/2015_Summer_Analyst_Day_Presentation_V31.pdf

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