understanding the environmental impacts of crop expansion & intensification gillian galford, j....
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Understanding the Environmental Understanding the Environmental Impacts of Crop Expansion Impacts of Crop Expansion
& Intensification& IntensificationGillian Galford, J. Melillo, J. Mustard, C.E.P. Cerri
Nov 20, 2008Amazon In Perspective: Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future
(LBA/GEOMA/PPBio)
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Potential Natural Vegetation: Mato Grosso
F. Mello, CENA MSc.
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Detecting croplands & management1. Study Area,
field data
2. MODIS EVI time series
3. Wavelet smoothing
4. Statistics from
wavelet-smoothed time series
5. RESULTS:Spatial & temporalcropping patterns
Galford et al. 2008
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Cropland expansion• 2001-2006: Croplands increased from 48, 300 km2 to 110, 000 km2
Galford et al. In Prep
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2001-2006 Cropland expansion
Galford et al. In Prep2.5 x106 ha in cerrado0.9 x106 ha in cerradão2.8 x106 ha in forest
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Estimated Average Annual GHG Emissions from Expansion
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Intensification is the change from single to double cropping patterns.
• We track cropping patterns within cropland areas.
• Single crops typical represent soy or rice.
• Double cropping entails two crops in a single wet season; generally, soy followed by corn, millet, or sorghum.
• 85% overall accuracy
Galford et al. In PrepValidation data thanks to J.C. Brownand C. Stickler
2001 2006
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2001-2006 Cropland intensification
Galford et al. In Prep1.4 x 106 ha in cerrado 0.2 x 106 ha in cerradão 0.7 x 106 ha in forest
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Estimated Annual Average Potential GHG Emissions Avoided
by Intensification
Galford et al. In Prep
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Considering the human dimension
• What explains patterns of expansion & intensification?– How do social factors such as land
tenure differences affect the choice between agricultural intensification and forest conversion?
– How strongly are decisions affected by natural landscape features?
• Potential of annual monitoring (crop area/type)
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Conclusions• Remote sensing: a tool for detecting croplands• Impacts of expansion >> intensification
– Trajectories of land-use change are important– Long- and short-term dynamics yet to play out?
• Spatially explicit modeling with TEM
Funding support: NASA/LBA & NASA/ESS Graduate Fellowship ProgramThanks to colleagues, J.C. Brown, C. Stickler, F. Mello