understanding & managing agricultural risk caused by climate variability in the southeast usa...

Understanding & Managing Understanding & Managing Agricultural Risk Caused by Agricultural Risk Caused by

Climate Variability in the Climate Variability in the Southeast USASoutheast USA

Understanding & Managing Understanding & Managing Agricultural Risk Caused by Agricultural Risk Caused by

Climate Variability in the Climate Variability in the Southeast USASoutheast USA

Keith T. IngramKeith T. IngramKeith T. IngramKeith T. Ingram

Southeast Climate Consortium Climate ConsortiumSoutheast Climate Consortium Climate Consortium University of Florida

JW Jones, CW Fraisse, P Hildebrand, S Jagtap, KT Ingram (SECC JW Jones, CW Fraisse, P Hildebrand, S Jagtap, KT Ingram (SECC Coordinator)Coordinator)

Florida State UniversityFlorida State University JJ O’Brien, D Zierden, JG Bellow, T LaRow, RS Ajaymohan, R Pryor , M JJ O’Brien, D Zierden, JG Bellow, T LaRow, RS Ajaymohan, R Pryor , M Griffin, P Leftwich, J BrolleyGriffin, P Leftwich, J Brolley

University of MiamiUniversity of Miami D Letson, F Miralles-Wilhelm, G PodestD Letson, F Miralles-Wilhelm, G Podestá, á, N Breuer, K Broad, V Cabrera, N Breuer, K Broad, V Cabrera, R Garcia R Garcia

University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia G Hoogenboom, D Stooksbury, A Garcia y Garcia, L Guerra, J PazG Hoogenboom, D Stooksbury, A Garcia y Garcia, L Guerra, J Paz

Auburn UniversityAuburn UniversityLU Hatch, J Novak, M MasterLU Hatch, J Novak, M Master

University of Alabama—HuntsvilleUniversity of Alabama—Huntsville J Christy, R McNiderJ Christy, R McNider

University of Florida JW Jones, CW Fraisse, P Hildebrand, S Jagtap, KT Ingram (SECC JW Jones, CW Fraisse, P Hildebrand, S Jagtap, KT Ingram (SECC Coordinator)Coordinator)

Florida State UniversityFlorida State University JJ O’Brien, D Zierden, JG Bellow, T LaRow, RS Ajaymohan, R Pryor , M JJ O’Brien, D Zierden, JG Bellow, T LaRow, RS Ajaymohan, R Pryor , M Griffin, P Leftwich, J BrolleyGriffin, P Leftwich, J Brolley

University of MiamiUniversity of Miami D Letson, F Miralles-Wilhelm, G PodestD Letson, F Miralles-Wilhelm, G Podestá, á, N Breuer, K Broad, V Cabrera, N Breuer, K Broad, V Cabrera, R Garcia R Garcia

University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia G Hoogenboom, D Stooksbury, A Garcia y Garcia, L Guerra, J PazG Hoogenboom, D Stooksbury, A Garcia y Garcia, L Guerra, J Paz

Auburn UniversityAuburn UniversityLU Hatch, J Novak, M MasterLU Hatch, J Novak, M Master

University of Alabama—HuntsvilleUniversity of Alabama—Huntsville J Christy, R McNiderJ Christy, R McNider

Agricultural RiskAgricultural RiskAgricultural RiskAgricultural Risk

Probability of an undesirable outcome in Probability of an undesirable outcome in an agricultural enterprise.an agricultural enterprise. Yield lossYield loss Low profit or economic lossLow profit or economic loss Environmental damageEnvironmental damage

Agricultural outcomes are inherently Agricultural outcomes are inherently uncertain. Whether we express risk in uncertain. Whether we express risk in terms of losses or desirable outcomes we terms of losses or desirable outcomes we must emphasize probabilities.must emphasize probabilities.

Probability of an undesirable outcome in Probability of an undesirable outcome in an agricultural enterprise.an agricultural enterprise. Yield lossYield loss Low profit or economic lossLow profit or economic loss Environmental damageEnvironmental damage

Agricultural outcomes are inherently Agricultural outcomes are inherently uncertain. Whether we express risk in uncertain. Whether we express risk in terms of losses or desirable outcomes we terms of losses or desirable outcomes we must emphasize probabilities.must emphasize probabilities.

Guiding questionsGuiding questionsGuiding questionsGuiding questions

Is it possible to forecast climate in the Is it possible to forecast climate in the Southeast USA?Southeast USA?

How much of the variability in crop yields is How much of the variability in crop yields is associated with predictable climate variability?associated with predictable climate variability?

Can climate forecasts be used to help Can climate forecasts be used to help producers reduce risks? producers reduce risks?

Would a climate risk management information Would a climate risk management information system be useful?system be useful?

What are the research and extension needs What are the research and extension needs for greater beneficial impacts of climate for greater beneficial impacts of climate information use?information use?

Shifts in Precipitation Shifts in Precipitation Probabilities by ENSO PhaseProbabilities by ENSO Phase

Shifts in Precipitation Shifts in Precipitation Probabilities by ENSO PhaseProbabilities by ENSO Phase

Frequency distribution

Probability of excedence

Tifton, Georgia Monthly Mean Rainfall by ENSO Phase

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

MM

per

mo

nth

El Niño La Niña Neutral

Peanut

Field Corn

Wheat

Shifts in Freeze ProbabilitiesShifts in Freeze ProbabilitiesShifts in Freeze ProbabilitiesShifts in Freeze Probabilities


Is it possible to forecast climate in the Southeast USA?

How much of the variability in crop yields How much of the variability in crop yields is associated with predictable climate is associated with predictable climate variability?variability?

Can climate forecasts be used to help Can climate forecasts be used to help producers reduce risks? producers reduce risks?

Would a climate risk management information Would a climate risk management information system be useful?system be useful?


Fresh Vegetables: Fresh Vegetables: Winter Tomato Yields (1929-95)Winter Tomato Yields (1929-95)

Fresh Vegetables: Fresh Vegetables: Winter Tomato Yields (1929-95)Winter Tomato Yields (1929-95)

Yields suppressed during El NiñoYields suppressed during El Niño Yields suppressed during El NiñoYields suppressed during El Niño

0

5

10

15

20

Fre

sh f

ruit

yie

ld (

ton

/acr

e)

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Year

La Niña

neutral

El Niño

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Pe

rce

nt

yie

ld in

cre

as

e

La Niña neutral El Niño

Tomato

Historical Yields: Field Corn, FLHistorical Yields: Field Corn, FLHistorical Yields: Field Corn, FLHistorical Yields: Field Corn, FL

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Pe

rce

nt

yie

ld i

nc

rea

se

La NiñaneutralEl Niño

Field corn

Yields higher if preceding ENSO phase was La Niña.Yields higher if preceding ENSO phase was La Niña.

Similar results for cotton and other crops.Similar results for cotton and other crops.

Yields higher if preceding ENSO phase was La Niña.Yields higher if preceding ENSO phase was La Niña.

Similar results for cotton and other crops.Similar results for cotton and other crops.

Florida CitrusFlorida CitrusFlorida CitrusFlorida Citrus

Grapefruit, seeded

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Pe

rce

nt

yie

ld i

nc

reas

e


Tangerine

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Pe

rce

nt

yie

ld i

nc

reas

e

Grapefruit, all


Lime




Can climate forecasts be used to help Can climate forecasts be used to help producers reduce risk?producers reduce risk?

Would a climate risk management information Would a climate risk management information system be useful in the Southeast?system be useful in the Southeast?




Can climate forecasts be used to help Can climate forecasts be used to help producers reduce risk?producers reduce risk?

Would a climate risk management information Would a climate risk management information system be useful in the Southeast?system be useful in the Southeast?


Survey by multidisciplinary Survey by multidisciplinary semi-structured discussionssemi-structured discussionsSurvey by multidisciplinary Survey by multidisciplinary semi-structured discussionssemi-structured discussions

1999: Assessed farmer interest and potential 1999: Assessed farmer interest and potential use of in climate forecasts in north central FL.use of in climate forecasts in north central FL.

1999: Assessed extension interest in climate forecasts in 41 FL counties.

2000: Assessed the potential use of climate 2000: Assessed the potential use of climate forecasts by livestock producers in north central forecasts by livestock producers in north central FL.FL.

2001: Further studied potential use of climate 2001: Further studied potential use of climate forecasts by ranchers.forecasts by ranchers.

2003/2004: Evaluate 2003/2004: Evaluate AgClimate AgClimate prototypes.prototypes.

1999: Assessed farmer interest and potential 1999: Assessed farmer interest and potential use of in climate forecasts in north central FL.use of in climate forecasts in north central FL.

1999: Assessed extension interest in climate forecasts in 41 FL counties.

2000: Assessed the potential use of climate 2000: Assessed the potential use of climate forecasts by livestock producers in north central forecasts by livestock producers in north central FL.FL.

2001: Further studied potential use of climate 2001: Further studied potential use of climate forecasts by ranchers.forecasts by ranchers.

2003/2004: Evaluate 2003/2004: Evaluate AgClimate AgClimate prototypes.prototypes.

Used historical weather data, categorized by ENSO phase, to Used historical weather data, categorized by ENSO phase, to determine if knowledge of climate forecast would:determine if knowledge of climate forecast would: Reduce riskReduce risk Increase yieldIncrease yield Increase profitIncrease profit Protect environment Protect environment

Some variables tested:Some variables tested: Crop mix, varietyCrop mix, variety Planting datePlanting date Fertilizer applicationsFertilizer applications Drainage, irrigationDrainage, irrigation Stocking rateStocking rate

Estimated probabilities of benefits Estimated probabilities of benefits

Used historical weather data, categorized by ENSO phase, to Used historical weather data, categorized by ENSO phase, to determine if knowledge of climate forecast would:determine if knowledge of climate forecast would: Reduce riskReduce risk Increase yieldIncrease yield Increase profitIncrease profit Protect environment Protect environment

Some variables tested:Some variables tested: Crop mix, varietyCrop mix, variety Planting datePlanting date Fertilizer applicationsFertilizer applications Drainage, irrigationDrainage, irrigation Stocking rateStocking rate

Estimated probabilities of benefits Estimated probabilities of benefits

Used simulation models to Used simulation models to analyze crop responses to climateanalyze crop responses to climateUsed simulation models to Used simulation models to analyze crop responses to climateanalyze crop responses to climate

RMSEfitting = 167 kg/ha

Crop Models Simulate YearlyCrop Models Simulate YearlyYield Variations due to ClimateYield Variations due to Climate

Expected Value of Climate Expected Value of Climate Forecast UseForecast UseExpected Value of Climate Expected Value of Climate Forecast UseForecast Use Relatively high probabilities of benefits (60 – Relatively high probabilities of benefits (60 –

80%)80%) Expected benefits vary with crop, time of year, Expected benefits vary with crop, time of year,

and locationand location Can reduce, but not eliminate climate risksCan reduce, but not eliminate climate risks Probable benefits include:Probable benefits include:

Higher yieldsHigher yields Greater profitGreater profit Less nutrient loss and groundwater contaminationLess nutrient loss and groundwater contamination

Relatively high probabilities of benefits (60 – Relatively high probabilities of benefits (60 – 80%)80%)

Expected benefits vary with crop, time of year, Expected benefits vary with crop, time of year, and locationand location

Can reduce, but not eliminate climate risksCan reduce, but not eliminate climate risks Probable benefits include:Probable benefits include:

Higher yieldsHigher yields Greater profitGreater profit Less nutrient loss and groundwater contaminationLess nutrient loss and groundwater contamination



How much of the variability in crop yields is associated with predictable climate variability?

Can climate forecasts be used to help producers reduce risk?

Would a climate risk management information system be useful?

What are the research and extension needs for greater beneficial impacts of climate information use?






AgClimate:AgClimate: Risk Information Risk Information and Decision Support System and Decision Support System AgClimate:AgClimate: Risk Information Risk Information and Decision Support System and Decision Support System

• Extension Partnership

• USDA Cooperation• Climate

Information• Agricultural

Commodity Risks • Crop Forecast

Outlook• Forest Fire Risk

• Extension Partnership

• USDA Cooperation• Climate

Information• Agricultural

Commodity Risks • Crop Forecast

Outlook• Forest Fire Risk

AgClimate:AgClimate: Forecasts are Forecasts are downscaled to county leveldownscaled to county level

Farmers and decision makers Farmers and decision makers can obtain climate information can obtain climate information at the local level.at the local level.

County level climate County level climate information and forecasts are information and forecasts are available based on nearest available based on nearest climate station.climate station.

Cooperating with FAWN in Cooperating with FAWN in Florida, AEMN in Georgia, Florida, AEMN in Georgia, State Climatologists in Florida, State Climatologists in Florida, Georgia, and AlabamaGeorgia, and Alabama

Farmers and decision makers Farmers and decision makers can obtain climate information can obtain climate information at the local level.at the local level.

County level climate County level climate information and forecasts are information and forecasts are available based on nearest available based on nearest climate station.climate station.

Cooperating with FAWN in Cooperating with FAWN in Florida, AEMN in Georgia, Florida, AEMN in Georgia, State Climatologists in Florida, State Climatologists in Florida, Georgia, and AlabamaGeorgia, and Alabama

Cooperative Stations

Current Research and Current Research and Extension QuestionsExtension QuestionsCurrent Research and Current Research and Extension QuestionsExtension Questions Can climate forecast skill be improved?Can climate forecast skill be improved? What are the skill levels of regional forecasts What are the skill levels of regional forecasts

such as drought, crop yield, and water demand such as drought, crop yield, and water demand that are produced from climate forecasts?that are produced from climate forecasts?

What additional climate information is needed by What additional climate information is needed by growers, Extension?growers, Extension?

Can climate information help growers with crop Can climate information help growers with crop insurance decisions?insurance decisions?

Can agricultural Best Management Practices Can agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) be improved by using climate forecasts? (BMPs) be improved by using climate forecasts?

Can we make Can we make AgClimateAgClimate more sustainable and more sustainable and dynamic?dynamic?

Can climate forecast skill be improved?Can climate forecast skill be improved? What are the skill levels of regional forecasts What are the skill levels of regional forecasts

such as drought, crop yield, and water demand such as drought, crop yield, and water demand that are produced from climate forecasts?that are produced from climate forecasts?

What additional climate information is needed by What additional climate information is needed by growers, Extension?growers, Extension?

Can climate information help growers with crop Can climate information help growers with crop insurance decisions?insurance decisions?

Can agricultural Best Management Practices Can agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) be improved by using climate forecasts? (BMPs) be improved by using climate forecasts?

Can we make Can we make AgClimateAgClimate more sustainable and more sustainable and dynamic?dynamic?

Experimental rainfall forecast, Experimental rainfall forecast, Feb 2005Feb 2005Experimental rainfall forecast, Experimental rainfall forecast, Feb 2005Feb 2005

Experimental climate forecasts Experimental climate forecasts show great promiseshow great promiseExperimental climate forecasts Experimental climate forecasts show great promiseshow great promise

Simulated crop yields based on Simulated crop yields based on experimental forecastsexperimental forecastsSimulated crop yields based on Simulated crop yields based on experimental forecastsexperimental forecasts

How do we How do we develop a develop a sustainable sustainable system for system for AgClimateAgClimate forecasts?forecasts?

How do we How do we develop a develop a sustainable sustainable system for system for AgClimateAgClimate forecasts?forecasts?

“FAWN” Weather Station

AgronomicDatabase

Soils, Crop VarietiesManagement

SECCHistorical Climate

DatabaseWeatherModels

Data QC

Ag & Water ModelInputs

ModelInterface

Models

Ag & WaterModel

Outputs

AgClimateDatabase

Climate& Yield

Forecasts

Web Server

OutputFormatting

“FAWN” Weather Station

AgronomicDatabase

Soils, Crop VarietiesManagement

SECCHistorical Climate

DatabaseWeatherModels

Data QC

Ag & Water ModelInputs

ModelInterface

Models

Ag & WaterModel

Outputs

AgClimateDatabase

Climate& Yield

Forecasts

Web Server

OutputFormatting

Fraisse et al.

Blueprint for a climate Blueprint for a climate information systeminformation systemBlueprint for a climate Blueprint for a climate information systeminformation system

(Adapted from: Letson, 2004 who adapapted from Sarewitz et al., 2000.)

RESEARCH Information generation

RESEARCH Information generation

EXTENSION: Communication, evaluation, and comprehension of information

EXTENSION: Communication, evaluation, and comprehension of information

OPERATIONS Implementation of information system

OPERATIONS Implementation of information system

STAKEHOLDERS Use of informationSTAKEHOLDERS Use of information

?

Landgrant university modelLandgrant university model

Ag Producers

Research

Education

Extension

Operational entities for traditional Operational entities for traditional agricultural research productsagricultural research productsOperational entities for traditional Operational entities for traditional agricultural research productsagricultural research products

New varietiesNew varieties

New nutrient New nutrient management management technology technology

New pest management New pest management technologytechnology

KnowledgeKnowledge

Climate information Climate information and forecastsand forecasts

New varietiesNew varieties

New nutrient New nutrient management management technology technology

New pest management New pest management technologytechnology

KnowledgeKnowledge

Climate information Climate information and forecastsand forecasts

Seed companies and Seed companies and certification boardscertification boards

Fertilizer companiesFertilizer companies

Chemical companiesChemical companies

Extension, publishers, Extension, publishers, farmersfarmers

? ? ?? ? ?

Seed companies and Seed companies and certification boardscertification boards

Fertilizer companiesFertilizer companies

Chemical companiesChemical companies

Extension, publishers, Extension, publishers, farmersfarmers

? ? ?? ? ?

Integrated Research and Integrated Research and Extension ApproachExtension ApproachIntegrated Research and Integrated Research and Extension ApproachExtension Approach

New KnowledgeNew KnowledgeNew KnowledgeNew Knowledge

New MethodsNew MethodsNew MethodsNew Methods

Decision makers

Climate Information &

Decision Support System

SECC

Extension Services

Climate offices

(Federal, State)

Sector researchers

Adapted from JW Jones, 2005Adapted from JW Jones, 2005

Summary & ConclusionsSummary & ConclusionsSummary & ConclusionsSummary & Conclusions

Extension agents and farmers want and ask forExtension agents and farmers want and ask for AgClimateAgClimate products. products.

Such requests often arise when researchers Such requests often arise when researchers cannot meet user expectations for operational cannot meet user expectations for operational production.production.

The private company that did the web The private company that did the web programming for programming for AgClimateAgClimate would like to would like to market the design.market the design.

Potential operational entities will need Potential operational entities will need resources to maintain and update databases. resources to maintain and update databases.

For some products the best operational entity is For some products the best operational entity is not clear.not clear.

Extension agents and farmers want and ask forExtension agents and farmers want and ask for AgClimateAgClimate products. products.

Such requests often arise when researchers Such requests often arise when researchers cannot meet user expectations for operational cannot meet user expectations for operational production.production.

The private company that did the web The private company that did the web programming for programming for AgClimateAgClimate would like to would like to market the design.market the design.

Potential operational entities will need Potential operational entities will need resources to maintain and update databases. resources to maintain and update databases.

For some products the best operational entity is For some products the best operational entity is not clear.not clear.

http://secc.coaps.fsu.edu/

understanding & managing agricultural risk caused by climate variability in the southeast usa...

Documents