unclassified usjfcom/j9/esd 4-oct-15 1 agent-based simulation to examine diplomatic, information,...

Unclassified

UnclassifiedUSJFCOM/J9/ESD

Apr 21, 2023 1

Agent-based Simulation to examine Diplomatic, Information, military, and Economic (DImE)

elements of national power to support

CDR Gregg MartinJ-9 Experimentation Support Dept.Constructive Simulations USJFCOM

Presentation to Col Garza USMC 10 February 2005

Joint Experimentation and Effects Based Operations

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 2

Purpose

Explain fundamentals of SEAS.

Outline

• SEAS outputs from SV04• Building Agents• The Agents view • Representing the synthetic world• Relationships between PMESII and DIME• User Interface

• 30 slides –45 mins

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 3

synthetic environments for analysis & simulation SEAS Output - World Activity

Terrorist Supporters, Terrorist Density, Terrorist Incidents,

Ethnic Unrest, Demonstrations

Pinpoints likely opponent activity and areas of interest

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 4

SEAS Output - Regional Rights

UPDATE

Key metrics:

Grey = Not measured

Green = Yes

Amber = Transition

Red = No

N = Neutral

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 5

SEAS Output - RONA Effects

The level of achievementof each effect is displayed

for the past 10 days

E001A – Undermining Indonesian Government

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 6

About SEAS

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Apr 21, 2023 7

It all starts with an Agent

• An agent possesses– Feeling and emotions (Psychology)

• Normal

• Aroused

– Behaviors (Sociology)• Initiate

• Search

• Evaluate

• Decide

• Execute

• Update

• Communicate

• Terminate

– Actions• Do Nothing

• Find a job

• Flee

• Join demonstration/riot

• Etc..

Intelligence

Savings

Group

I

D

X

S

E

U

C

T

Financial

Life

Food

Water

Person

Environ.

Shelter

Print

Electronic

Do NothingSecurity

Basic

Communication

Exposure

Rumor

True

Infected

Immune

Well Being

Communicate

Carrier

E

Health

Liberty

Safety

Environment

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 8

Types of Synthetic Agents

• There are 2 types of agents – Individual Agents

• Population Agents - Citizen Agents• Leader Agents – Religious, Social and Terrorist Agents

– Group Agents• Organizational Agents - Religious, Social and Terrorist

Organizations• Institutional agents - National Level Executive, Legislature and

Judicial Institutions, Economic, Military, Social, Information, National and Regional Infrastructure

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 9

Synthetic Agents - Population Agents

• 1:X000 Granularity optimizes runtime

• Overall dynamic of decisions and well being

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 10

Synthetic Agents- Leader Agents

• Extension of citizen agents with additional traits, goals, behaviors and actions

• 1:1 Granularity

• Each decision or action can potentially have great effect on the system

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 11

Synthetic Agents- Organization Agents

• 1:1 Granularity• N relationships with leaders and N

relationships with citizens• Organization agents realize organizational

structure composed of citizens and leaders• Organization agents simulate the behavior of

organization as a whole by sensing traits of members and overlaying group decision making

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 12

Synthetic Agents- Institution Agents

• Several Government Institutions combined into one to simulate government decision making in a country

• Institution agents subsume organizational structure and role of leaders

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 13

SEAS Features: 2006Individual Organization Institution

Agent Civilian Leader Social Group

Organization

Government Institution

Political Political Leader

Political Org Political Institution

Inter-GovInstituti

on

Military Terrorist

Terrorist Leader

Soldier

Terrorist Org

Military InstitutionEconomy Bonyads

Multi National Corporations

Sectors, Regional and Global Macro Economics, Central Banks, IMF, World Bank, WTO

Society Religious Leader Religious Org, NGOs, charitable orgsBonyads

Social and Religious Institutions

Information Media -- print, broadcast, internet (blog)

News wires

Infrastructure

Consumption model Multi National Corporations

Infrastructure

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 14

Traits

• Traits capture the characteristics of an agent. E.g.:– Demographics (ethnicity,

gender)

– Behavioral (aggressiveness)

– Physiological (height, immunity to certain virus)

• Traits realize diversity in agent populations

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 15

Citizen Traits

• Demographic Traits– Age– Gender– Education– Ethnicity– Religion– Income– Stances– Expectations

• Cultural Traits– Nationalism Level– Religious Fundamentalism

Level– Emotion Level– Blue Arousal Level– Government Arousal Level– Ethnic Religious Arousal

Level– Organization Affiliation– Extremism Level

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 16

Organization Traits

• Stances– Political Orientation

– Economic Policy

– Western Investment

– Closed Society

– Religious Orientation

– Societal Orientation

– Freedom of Opinion

• Other– Control Over Resources

– Type

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 17

Liberal View

Cultural ViewCross Cultural

View

Social Network

Realist ViewKeynsian View

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

Theoretical Pluralism

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Apr 21, 2023 18

Theoretical Pluralism: Integration of Disciplines

• International Relations

•(Neo)Realism

•(Neo)Liberalism

• Macro Economics

•Psychology

•Transgressive Behavior

•Aggressive behavior

•Social norms and conformity

•Computational Neuro-Science

•Economics

•Prospect Theory

•Social Psychology

•Relative Deprivation

•Sociology

•Resource Mobilization

•Political Science

•Contagion Model of Terrorism

•Integration Theory

•Democracy and peace

Social Relations(Organizations)

State(Institutions

)

Individual Behavior(Citizens)

Many more not included here..Many more not included here..

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 19

Agent within a Synthetic Environment

AGENT

ENVIRONMENT

IntelligenceEmotions

Social Group/Organization

BehaviorMobilitySensors Goals

DemographicsTraitsSusceptibility

Intelligence

SavingsGroup

I

D

X

S

E

U

C

T

FinancialLife

FoodWater

PersonEnviron.

Shelter

PrintElectronic

Do NothingSecurity

Basic

Communication

Exposure

RumorTrue

InfectedImmune

Well Being

Communicate

Carrier

I

S

E

D

X

C

U

nitiate

earch

valuate

ecide

E ecute

ommunicate

erminate

Behavior Primitives

T

pdate

HealthLibertySafety

Environment

Applicable Models

Agents can be:

Individuals

Organizations

Institutions

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 20

Citizen Agent Development

Income Class

Fundamentalism

Arousal Level

Valence Level

Well-Being

DNA• Blue Sympathizer• Neutral• Terrorist Sympathizer• Passive Terrorist Supporter• Active Terrorist Supporter• Terrorist Recruit• Terrorist

Terrorist Progression Model

• Basic Needs• Security Needs• Financial Needs• Health Needs• Political Needs• Educational Needs• Freedom of Movement Needs• Religious Needs

Well-Being Model

Income Class

Fundamentalism

Arousal Level

Valence Level

Well-Being

DNA

Nationalism

Ethnicity

Religion

Organization Membership

Blue

Government

Ethnic/Religious

Media Affiliation

SEAS Unified Vision 2004 (SUV04) Sea Viking 2004 (SV04)

• Red Media Spin• Blue Media Spin

Media Perception Model


Well-Being Model

• Join Organization• Leave Organization• Selective Benefits• Solidary Benefits• Purposive Benefits

Organization Member Model

• Subscription to Specific Media


Social Contagion Model

New Models

Up to 64 bytesUp to 32 bytes

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 21

Citizen Agents – Looking Ahead

Future Models

Retain history of environment/events/ behaviors that affect current behaviors

Perceive environment and current individual state from agent attributes

Learn from outcomes of behavior

Agent Memory

Income Class

Fundamentalism

Arousal Level

Valence Level

Well-Being

DNA

Nationalism

Ethnicity

Religion

Organization Membership

Blue

Government

Ethnic/Religious

Media Affiliation


Well-Being Model

Organization Member Model


Memory Model

Perception Model

Learning Model

Social Contagion Model

Insurgency Model

Social Group Formation

Uprising during time of social unrest

Formation of interest groups

New Models

Soldier Model

Will to Fignt Up to 128 bytes

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 22

GovernmentGovernment

CitizenMake DecisionsMake Decisions

• Stay• Flee• Affiliation to Factions

D I M Eactions

OrganizationsOrganizations LeadersLeaders

APMESIIActions

PMESII Actions

Actions

Node

PMESII Actions

Red

Sp

in

Blu

e S

pin

New

swir

e

Red Spin

Blue Spin

Newswire

Red

Sp

in

Blu

e Sp

in

New

swire

Roads & Bridges

Communication Lines

Health Services

Security

Oil & Gas

Sea Ports

Financial

Public Utilities

Target Action at Specific Nodes

Node

Node Node

Node Node

NodeNode

NodeNode

Status/ Operational

Level

SEAS (agent-based DIME model) Overview

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 23

Synthetic International System

……

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

World

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

Region

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

Country1

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

Province1

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

City1

International System

C1 Government

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

Province2

…

…P1 Governor

P2 Governor

C1 Mayor

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

CountryXAA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

ProvinceXAA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

CityX

CX Government PX Governor CX Mayor

Seamless integration of new areas of interest

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 24

Synthetic Political System

Power

Balance of Power

Alliances

Treaties

Trade Agreements

Reciprocity

Inter-gov. Organizations

Culture & Religious Affinities

Territorial Disagreements

NGOs

Regional Pub. Opinion

Ethnicity

Basic Needs

Security Needs

Financial Needs

Health Needs

Political Needs

Education Needs

FOM Needs

Religion Needs

Nationalism

Political Orientation

Domestic Policy

Freedom of Opinion

Societal Orientation

Economic Policy

Religious Orientation

Nationalism

Fundamentalism

Ethnicity

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

Nationalism

Social Stability

Political Stability

Information

Pub Opinion

Pop Desires

Infrastructure

Military

Econ. Stability

External Threat

Citizens Leaders

President

Defense, Finance, Foreign Affairs

Political Parties

MPR

Social groups

Religious groups

Secessionist groups

Military

Militia

Terrorists

Pirates and Crime syndicate

GOI

APMESII Actions DIME

Legitimacy

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 25

SV04 - Blue and Red Roles

AA

II

EE

PP

MM

SS II

BLUERED

OtherCountries

AA

II

EE

PP

MM

SS II

ROI

DIME

DIME DIME

APMESII

DIME

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 26

SV04 - Stability Operations: Blue-Red Role Reversal

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

BLUERED

OtherCountries

AA

IIEE

PPMM

SS II

ROI

APMESII

DIME

DIME

DIME

DIME

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 27

SEAS-- ONA/EBO – Action Planner

R

E

Observe the achievement level of each Effect over the past 10 days

Select Node to act upon to increase the achievement of an effect

Select one or more Actions to impose on the node to achieve this effect

Set the amount of Resources to utilize for this action over 10 day period

N

A

E

NA

ONA

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 28

User Interface – Action Plan

Planner supports complex course of action construction

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 29

In Summary ..• SEAS is agent based computational environment

that is:– Massively parallel architecture for distributed simulation,

gaming and experimentation– Theory based to model every aspect of PmESII and DImE– Unified “gene” like representation that enables integration

of multiple disciplines and paradigms– Enhanced multi-resolution in time and space– Layered approach for incremental development of models– Shared reality concept to federate/bridge/integrate legacy

simulations and databases

• Highly evolved, light weight visualization • Integrated tactical, operational, and strategic

simulation, gaming, and experimentation capability

Unclassified


Apr 21, 2023 30

Questions

unclassified usjfcom/j9/esd 4-oct-15 1 agent-based simulation to examine diplomatic, information,...

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