unclassified tropical cyclone basins s wbace p l
TRANSCRIPT
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Tropical Cyclone BasinsTropical Cyclone Basins
SS
WWBBAA CC EE
PP
LL
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Area of ResponsibilityArea of Responsibility
180180oo
JTWC
CPHC
140140oo
JTWC
NHC
NHC
= TC warning center= TC warning center
JTWC
JTWC
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
TPC/NHCNationalHurricaneCenter
JTWCCPHC
FNMOCAJTWC
PGUA
RODN
DGAR
RKSJ KGWC
NOAANESDISSAB
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Purpose of TC Satellite Purpose of TC Satellite ReconnaissanceReconnaissance
To assist the Typhoon Duty Officer or Hurricane Specialist in determining the position and estimated intensity of the tropical cyclone at a point in time
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Recon Imagery Recon Imagery RequirementsRequirements
• Imagery used in support of Center warnings must:– Have sufficient resolution to discern the important
meteorological features• </= 1.5km visible
• </= 5 km infrared
• </= 15 km microwave
– Be precisely geo-navigated (each pixel tied to a specific lat/lon point relative to the earth’s surface) to provide accurate position information
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Use in the warning process, Use in the warning process, continuedcontinued
• Feeds in to
– Objective best track
– Synthetic vortex (bogus) insertion
– Numerical model guidance (persistence)
– Current warning position and intensity
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
So - where’s the aircraft? RADAR? SFC OBS?So - where’s the aircraft? RADAR? SFC OBS?
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
Aircraft recon - discontinued in WestPac 1987Aircraft recon - discontinued in WestPac 1987
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
RADAR - 240nm from GUAM and Kadena onlyRADAR - 240nm from GUAM and Kadena only
WSR-88DWSR-88D
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
Surface Obs - very limited in WestPac AOR.Surface Obs - very limited in WestPac AOR.
WSR-88DWSR-88D
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
So - all that’s left - all too often - is two So - all that’s left - all too often - is two opinions about the location of the LLCCopinions about the location of the LLCC
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
Which two opinions? JTWC and AFWA!Which two opinions? JTWC and AFWA!
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
If you pick “A”, Guamis threatened in 24 hrs...
But not if you pick “B”
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
Gale winds here in green
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late!
So the choice matters!
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late!
The overall confidence in a single fix is never high - unless it’s an EYE.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late!
If we selected a position in-between the two subjective position estimates….
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
….then we have a higher probability ofbeing correct…….
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
….or at least not too too far off…....
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
….when compared to the other two forecasts.
Most Likely
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
Storm Track/ForecastStorm Track/ForecastThe importance of an accurate fix:The importance of an accurate fix:
….when compared to the other two forecasts.
EXTREME
EXTREME
Most Likely