una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienza

Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e

resilienzaFrancesco Petrini

Co-founder and Director

StroNGER S.r.l., Via Giacomo Peroni 442-444, Tecnopolo Tiburtino, 00131 Rome (ITALY)

Associate Researcher,

Sapienza – University of Rome,Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering

e-mail: [email protected] , [email protected]

web: http://www.stronger2012.com

mailto:[email protected]


http://www.stronger2012.com/

in ingegneria dei materiali, la resilienza è la capacità di un materiale di resistere a forze impulsive senza spezzarsi e ripristinando lo stato iniziale

in informatica, la resilienza è la capacità di un sistema di adattarsi alle condizioni d'uso e di resistere all'usura in modo da garantire la disponibilità dei servizi erogati

in psicologia, la resilienza è la capacità di far fronte agli eventi traumatici, di riorganizzare positivamente la propria vita dinanzi alle difficoltà

In biologia la resilienza è la capacità di un organismo di autoripararsi dopo un danno e di adattarsi vivere in ambienti soggetti a variazioni molto brusche e imprevedibili. Quando specie animali e vegetali presentano alti tassi di resilienza vengono definite specie a strategia r

In generale quindi, e per un ambiente urbano, la resilienza è definita come la capacitàdella comunità (o un sistema ecologico) nei suoi componenti primari, di ritornare alsuo stato iniziale, dopo essere stata sottoposta a una perturbazione o shock che l’haallontanata da quello stato; tali alterazioni possono essere causate sia da eventinaturali (es. terremoto), sia da attività antropiche e terroristiche.

F. Petrini. Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienzaGLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015 [email protected]

Definizione di urban resilience


Complexity: Systems not components

IFRASTRUCTUREENGINEERING

ECOLOGY

PSYCOLOGY

SOCIOLOGY

ECONOMY

NETWORK

COMPLEXITY


Complexity (I), due to multidisciplinarity, multidimensionality


Complexity (II): different interacting urban elements that contribute to a complex system behavior


http://socialearth.org/100-resilient-cities-centennial-challenge-a-100-million-effort-to-build-urban-resilience-around-the-world


a. theory and methods

system approach

The general framework for the

design of complex structures:

a) definition of the structural

domain

b) definition of the design

environment

c) assessment of the

performances

d) alignment of expert

judgments

e) negotiation and reframing

Bontempi, F. (2008) The structural analysis of the Messina Strait Bridge. Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Bridge

Maintenance, Safety and Management. Seoul, Korea, July 13-17.

Complexity (III): a system interacting with the environment



About complexity: natural systems and Hierarchybuilt environment nature



Models for resilienceReal urban area

Categorization

Synthesis

Grouping

Hierarchy

Sub system

Layering

Facility

Building 2

Facility 1

Building 4

Structure

Building 3

Building1

Facility 2

Layers extraction

Working model

Sara Meerow and Joshua P. Newell Resilience and Complexity A Bibliometric Review and Prospects for Industrial Ecology

Models for resilience (II)

----- = ordinary node

= critical (active) node in

case of emergency-----

= transportation link (e.g.

road)

= pipelines

Facility

Building 2

Facility 1

Building 4

Structure

Building 3

Building1

Facility 2

Urban area (communication and water services)

C. Gómez a,⇑, M. Sánchez-Silva a, L. Dueñas-Osorio . An applied complex systems framework for risk-based decision-making in

infrastructure engineering,Structural Safety Volume 50, September 2014, Pages 66–77

Complexity of LP-HC events: Multi-hazard & Black swan


= critical (active) node in

case of emergency-----

= ordinary principal link

(e.g. road)

= ordinary alternative link (e.g.

underground)

= critical principal link

= critical alternative linkSCHOOL

HOSPIT

AL

HOUSE

AGGRGATE

SPORT

ARENA

SHOPPING

CENTER

EMBASSY

OFFICE

UNIV.

CAMPUS

HOUSE

AGGRGATE

FIRE

DEPT

Urban development

PLANT

Representation of an urban area as a network of nodes and links

- Nodes: relevant premises for urban activities, strategic and crowded buildings

- Links: interconnections between them, transport and supply systems


Multiple hazard scenarios (I)


SCHOOL

HOSPITAL

HOUSE AGGRGATE

MALL

SHOPPING CENTER

EMBASSY

OFFICE

HOUSE AGGRGATE

HOUSE AGGRGATE

FIRE DEPARTMENT

PLANT

EXAMPLE: CHAIN HAZARD

Tsunami after an Earthquake = flood action

= earthquake action

= blast action

= fire action

Actions due to different hazards

= chain actions

= concurrent actions

Actions combination (multiple)

accidental actions & multiple hazards


Multiple hazard scenarios (I)


Japan earthquake, 2011

Multiple hazards (fire after earthquake)

Indirect/disproportionate consequence


Example of a multi-hazard catastrophic event


Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (1st ed.). London: Penguin. p. 400. ISBN 1-

84614045-5.

A Black Swan is an event with the following three attributes.

1. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations,

because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.

Rarity -The event is a surprise (to the observer).

2. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'.

Extreme “impact” - the event has a major effect.

3. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct

explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and

predictable.

Retrospective (though not prospective) predictability - After the first

recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could

have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but

unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the

personal perception by individuals.

Black Swans



http://uk.businessinsider.com/paris-attackers-isis-territory-trained-2015-11?r=US&IR=T


Example of a black swan event



= critical (active) node

in case of emergency-----

= transportation link

(e.g. road)

= pipelines

Facility

Building 2

Facility

1

Building 4

Structure

Building 3

Building1

Facility 2

Effects of a black-swan

Facility

Facility

1

Building 4

Structure

Building 3

Building1

Facility 2

Building

2

Facility

Facility

1

Building 4

Structure

Building 3

Building1

Facility 2

Building

2

Effect of LP-HC events on system behavior

Quantification of resilience


MCEER (Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research), (2006). “MCEER’s Resilience Framework”. Available at

http://mceer.buffalo.edu/research/resilience/Resilience_10-24-06.pdf

MCEER framework for resilience evaluation:

Initial losses Recovery time, depending on:

• Resourcefulness

• Rapidity

Disaster strikes

Systemic

Robustness

Cimellaro GP, Reinhorn AM, Bruneau M (2012). Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures

Different recovery functions

First Urban Resilience framework



MCEER (Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research), (2006). “MCEER’s Resilience Framework”. Available at

http://mceer.buffalo.edu/research/resilience/Resilience_10-24-06.pdf

MCEER framework for resilience evaluation:

Initial losses Recovery time, depending on:

• Resourcefulness

• Rapidity

Disaster strikes

Systemic

Robustness

Cimellaro GP, Reinhorn AM, Bruneau M (2012). Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures

Different recovery functions

First Urban Resilience framework

R Resilience


-

Aftermath of the event

-

historical - political – decisions –

aging – LP-HC events


Modern frameworks


ISSUE: defining the quality Q- Resilience indicators


Multidisciplinarity, Multidimensional


A unique framework is needed for the definition of the resilience dimensions and indicators

The Rockefeller-Arup framework



CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

http://www.alphachimp.com/weblog/2013/6/28/poptech-the-city-resilient.html

1) Urban resilience is a complex-multidisciplinary-important topic. Currently driving political decisions and a matter of urgency for

modern society



http://michalryjak.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/applying-collaborative-innovation-to-design-thinking.jpg

http://www.mondolithic.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/gossip.jpg

http://www.tedxcaserta.it/la-china-e-gli-acquerelli.html

2) For these reasons some important skills need to be developed by our social system: a) proper communication; b) intellectual collaboration; c) correct integration of information; d) a jump toward new working environments

GLI ATTORI DEL DIVENIRE URBANO, Sapienza University, Rome, 26 Nov 2015

Francesco Petrini

Co-founder and Director

StroNGER S.r.l., Via Giacomo Peroni 442-444, Tecnopolo Tiburtino, 00131 Rome (ITALY)

Associate Researcher,

Sapienza – University of Rome,Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering

e-mail: [email protected] , [email protected]

web: http://www.stronger2012.com

Una visione ampia dei sistemi: robustezza e resilienza




http://www.stronger2012.com/


LA RESILIENZA DEI SISTEMI

In ecology, resilience is the capacity of an ecosystem to respond to a perturbation or disturbance by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Such perturbations and disturbances can include stochastic events such as fires, flooding, windstorms, insect population explosions, and human activities such as deforestation, fracking of the ground for oil extraction, pesticide sprayed in soil, and the introduction of exotic plant or animal species. Disturbances of sufficient magnitude or duration can profoundly affect an ecosystem and may force an ecosystem to reach a threshold beyond which a different regime of processes and structures predominates.

British Standard, BS65000(2014) defines "organisationalresilience" as "ability of an organization to anticipate, prepare for, and respond and adapt to incremental change and sudden disruptions in order to survive and prosper."[1]In recent years, a new consensus of the concept of resilience emerged as a practical response to the decreasing lifespan of organisations[2] and the from key stakeholders, including boards, governments, regulators, shareholders, staff, suppliers and customers to effectively address the issues of security, preparedness, risk, and survivability.

www.francobontempi.org

Stro N

GER

www.francobontempi.org

Stro N

GER