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The Great Unraveling – Thoughts on the Changing Higher Education Landscape
Howard Lurie / January 2014
University of Nebraska Medical Center / January 13 – 14, 2014
Howard Lurie
CS4Ed – Consulting Services for Education
www.linkedin.com/in/howardlurie
THE GREAT UNRAVELING
Forces Driving Disaggregation // Unbundling // Unraveling
Emerging globalized business models
Widening faultlines in income, access and equity
Rapid escalation of higher education costs
Persistent decline in value of undergraduate and graduate degrees
Unfettered access to ubiquitous content
The city on a hill has company; increased competition
An Unbundling Framework M.P. Staton
Core capacities and functions of established institutions are now diversifieddistributed&differentiated
An Unbundled University Experience
M.P. Staton
Shifts Away from Predictable, Single Pathways
Steven Bell, http://lj.libraryjournal.com/2013/02/opinion/steven-bell/does-retention-matter-in-alt-higher-ed-from-the-bell-tower/
How is change measured, anticipated, and navigated?
US cities / states organized by pop/ sq miles
THREADS TO CONSIDER
Platform Wars or Deeper Learning?
Towards the Jetsons’ Classroom?
Actionable Learning Analytics or Just a Cluttered Dashboard?
Reinventing Instructional Design and Course Production
PLATFORM
LMS Market Share, 1997 - 2013
edX: “We’ve Flipped the Funnel”
Same staff resources as 150 person on-campus class
7,157Certified8,240
Took the Final9,318
Passed the Mid-Term10,547
Made it the Mid-Term
26, 349Tried the First Problem Set
154,763
Registered for 6.002x: Circuits and Electronics
Gartner Hype Cycle
LMS Market share, 2013
Next Wave LMS Progressions
Next Wave LMS
• Simple course delivery “learning experiences”
• Single course experience differentiated pathways for acceleration or remediation
• Click through data predictive learner analytics, consumable by both student and instructor
• Digital content repositories stackable content available across platforms and providers
• Departmentalized courses evolving and practicum focused learning communities
• Course in a box mutli platform and device integration
Canvas – Network, MOOC, LMS, All or None?
Door Number One, Two, Three, or None?
Questions to Consider in LMS Determination
• What is the adoption strategy? Single, multiple, or local?
• What is the desired level of interoperability? LTI friendly?
• Open? Closed Open? Open Open? Closed Closed? • How will courses be developed, and by whom?
Support models? • How will core instructional goals be met by an LMS
or set of LMSs?
ELROY JETSON @ SCHOOL
“2000” circa 1910
Tomorrow’s schools will be more crowded; teachers will be correspondingly fewer. Teaching would be by means of sound movies and mechanical tabulating machines. Pupils would record attendance and answer questions by pushing buttons. Special machines would be “geared” for each individual student so he could advance as rapidly as his abilities warranted. Progress records, also kept by machine, would be periodically reviewed by skilled teachers, and personal help would be available when necessary.
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-jetsons-get-schooled-robot-teachers-in-the-21st-century-classroom-11797516/#ixzz2q1GeQxla
Circa 1968
Click to Start or Just Minimize to the Desktop?
Flipped and Blended Classrooms
Thille - More complex than rocket science…
Candace Thille, Schools of Tomorrow, 9/17/13
That’s what I’ve spent the last 10 years of my life doing. One thing we found is that learning is really complex…
Once a colleague asked me, ‘why do you study learning? We all teach, it’s not rocket science.’
Well, actually it’s more complex than rocket science. Really understanding human learning at that episodic moment where you have change in thought is a complex process
Will it Blend?
Questions to Consider for Blended Learning• What are the support systems
and training resources for faculty and production units to create and deliver blended course content?
• What is the blended learning
research agenda? How will data be collected and analyzed? How will data inform the course development roadmap?
• What will be the associated business requirements? Credit hours? Faculty compensation? Activity or platform fees? Certificate fees?
Blended Learning Flavors of the Week
Yes, it will blend, but…
More than Rocket Science… • Investigate the “learning engineers” framework
• Anticipate faculty development and support; acknowledge the destabilizing realities of blended learning.
• Develop instructional solutions for instructional problems.
• Demand a rigorous but attainable research agenda; contribute findings to a burgeoning field
BIG DATA OR JUST BIG DASHBOARDS?
Hint.fm http://hint.fm/projects/wind/
Next Generation of Data Visualization
http://hint.fm/projects/wind/
Unbundled Schools – Implications
Phototrails.net
Studying Learning in the Worldwide Classroom; Research into edX’s First MOOC
Research and Practice in Assessment, Summer 2013
Initial edX attempts at learner analytics
Onlinetextbook
Videos Assessments
Courtesy Seaton, Pritchard Aug 2012
How does learner activity correlate to performance?
154k 108k “participants” in total time spent
Weekly time spent per activity
Tim
e/W
eek
per
Act
ivit
y
Arrow thickness ~ # accessesResource area ~ time spent
What did “learners” use to learn? Pritchard http://RELATE.MIT.edu
Possible “universals”: • Weekends rule• Global
Procrastination
Rey Junco….
“Generally, what you see is learning analytics applied to course management systems and course management systems is basically just a fancy way of saying an online discussion board and they are looking at how many times a student will respond, how - to a discussion - how quickly they respond to a discussion, how often they log on. So just very, very basic levels of data that they're looking at, and so the predictive models are not as accurate as they could be”.
https://www.edsurge.com/n/2013-02-20-stanford-harvard-professors-dissect-big-data
Early Gap Analysis on Learning Data
Towards Predictive Learning Analytics
Considerations for Predictive Learning Analytics• Design and build an
integrated analytics framework which includes recruitment, retention, and classroom performance.
• Early articulation of faculty, student and research requirements for data sets, indicators, and dashboards.
• Define the desired range of personalized / adaptive learning features based on student profiles, pre-tests, placements etc.
• Careful and close analysis of privacy concerns
Acrobatiq – 2014 Saas / API Based Product
REINVENTING INSTRUCTIONAL DESIGN AND COURSE PRODUCTION
Roots of Instructional Design – “Land” based teaching
Towards a New Model of Instructional Design
Transitions towards a New Model of Instructional Design
Course as product backward planning learning as process
Singular “heroic efforts” integrated, cross disciplinary teams
Vertically integrated service delivery horizontally built and managed teams
Faculty as consumer faculty as co-producer
Dominance of summative assessment models inclusion of formative assessment models
Data production data consumption, interpretation and iteration
Among others, Bill Jermone http://mfeldstein.com/learning-engineers/
Componetized, Modularized, Super-Sized