un caso de simulación

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    BJNH

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    {goqjckgd ap mqra |rn|rgn kqcdfn jn{ kndvrcvn{ kajabrcfn{ |nr {q kcq{cdva

    qdgyar{cj |ar{ghqad aj igd fa faircqfcrjn{ ad {q farak`n fa jahvgoc6$

    \nr jn fao{* CJAMCDFRN \GAVRG `' Uyar jjcocfc w |ga fa |hgdc32 faj jgbajn_ fgka ad kqcdvn c jn{ oafgn{ fa |rqabc sqa |qafa qvgjg}cr aj

    {qka{nr sqa amarka qd farak`n |rn|gn sqa ja fc jc jaw |crc faocdfcr jc

    {goqjckgd fa qd ckvn sqa ja `c |rgycfn fa {q jahvgoc* sqa faba |arogvr{aja

    |rnbcr knd |ra{qdkgnda{ w va{vghn{ jc {goqjckgd sqa `garad {q{ jahvgoc{

    c{|grckgnda{$ \rnkafgadfn gqra |rn|rgn aj `gmn {a asqg|crc c qd varkarn*

    {gadfn sqa jc oamnr fa jc{ |rnbcd}c{ jc inrocd jn{ ojvg|ja{ `ak`n{ sqaadhadfrcd gdfgkgn{ w |ra{qdkgnda{* |qfgadfn advndka{ {ar faon{vrcfn aj

    ygkgn knd vnfn{ jn{ oafgn{ fa |rqabc{ jahcja{$

    3$2$3$2$/ \nr jn sqa ra{|akvc c jc n|nrvqdgfcf |crc gdvadvcr jc ckkgd

    |rgdkg|cj* a{ daka{crgn raknrfcr vcobgd sqa cd kqcdfn kndinroa cj crvkqjn

    3$203 faj Kfghn Kgygj* |crakgarc c |rgnrg sqa wc `qbgarc vrcd{kqrrgfn

    jc n|nrvqdgfcf |crc gdvadvcrjc* {gd aobcrhn a{ {jn c |crvgr fa jc oqarva fa jc

    {anrc* ad iak`c 33 fa mqdgn fa 2

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    A{ o{* jc og{oc fnkvrgdc favarogdc sqa ad ygfc faj kcq{cdva aj

    ra{arycvcrgn dn |qafa amarkar farak`n cjhqdn raiaradva c jc jahvgoc5 dg

    vco|nkn ja a{ fcfn |rnvahar c {vc* ra{|akvn fa jc |rn|gc |ar{ndc fa kqwc

    {qka{gd {a vrcvc n ad rajckgd knd varkarn{5 w ajjn* |rakg{coadva* |nrsqa

    fgk`n jahgvgocrgn dn a{ vnfcyc vgvqjcr fa farak`n cjhqdn {nbra jc `aradkgc ad

    kqa{vgd5 a{hrgogadfn c icynr fa jc va{g{ {acjcfc sqa* |nr jn fao{* aj

    ondvn fa jc jahvgoc {jn |qafa kcjkqjcr{a qdc ya} sqa jc {qka{gd {a `cwc

    cbgarvn (crv$ 007 K$K$'* jn kqcj* cfao{ fa ra{qjvcr nbygn* a{v {acjcfn

    jahcjoadva5 jn sqa a{ kno|crvgfn knd nvrn{ cqvnra{*

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    sqa fgkad= jn{`arafarn{ jahgvgocrgn{ dn |qafad* cdva{ fa jc oqarva faj va{vcfnr* gdynkcr jc

    |rnvakkgd a{vcbjakgfc c {q icynr* |qa{vn sqa {q farak`n c jc {qka{gd dn `c

    dckgfn vnfcyc* w dn vadgadfn a{c kqcjgfcf* dn {a |qafa iqdfcr ad jc

    yarfcfarc bc{a fa jc jahvgoc* sqa a{ qdc |crva fa jc `aradkgc cb /gdva{vcvn

    w jc o{ go|nrvcdva* |qa{ vgada jc kqcjgfcf fa {ar go|arcvgyc5 kndkjqwadfn

    dqa{vrc mqrg{|rqfadkgc8 sqa= [a faba vadar oqw kjcrn sqa jn{ `arafarn{

    jahgvgocrgn{ dn |qafad fg{|ndar faj |cvrgondgn faj kcq{cdva cdva{ fa {q

    oqarva wc sqa jc jaw cqvnrg}c jn{ ckvn{ fa faiad{c n {ahqrgfcf fa jc jahvgoc

    dgkcoadva cbgarvc jc `aradkgc* n {ac fa{|q{* fa nkqrrgfc {q oqarva5 c{

    knon sqa= Jc |ra{krg|kgd vco|nkn knd{vgvqwa crhqoadvn* wc sqa dqdkc

    knrrar {gdn fa{fa sqa aj `arafarn vgada aj amarkgkgn fa {q farak`n0$

    3$2$2$/ Jc {ahqdfc |ravad{gd |rnka{cj* {a raigara c sqa

    {qb{gfgcrgcoadva w |crc aj kc{n sqa jc ckkgd |rgdkg|cj iqarc fakjcrcfc {gdjqhcr* ad {q kcrkvar fa `arafarn inr}n{n fa jc kgqfcfcdc w c`nrc knon

    kndvgdqcfnr fa {q |ar{ndcjgfcf mqrfgkc* ckkgnd kndvrc jn{ oadkgndcfn{

    faocdfcfn{ |crc sqa kndyadhcd n ad {q faiakvn aj Vrgbqdcj fakjcra jc dqjgfcf

    cb{njqvc fa jc a{krgvqrc |bjgkc fa kno|rc/yadvc* cdva{ {acjcfc* w ad

    knd{akqadkgc vcobgd fakjcra jc dqjgfcf faj kndvrcvn |ra|crcvnrgn fa

    9$/ @CFFCF [$ Macd K`= Jc jahvgoc ad aj Kfghn Kgygj Yada}njcdn$ \rgoarc Afgkgd$ Afgkgnda{Icbravd$ Kcrckc{$ 3786$ Vnon 3$ \hgdc{ 98 w {{$ W ad Farak`n fa [qka{gnda{$ Jc Jahvgoc ad ajFarak`n Kgygj Yada}njcdn$ Afgkgnda{ Icbravd$ Kcrckc{$ \h{$ 17 w {{$8$/ [advadkgc D RK/

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    kno|rc/yadvc* asqgycjadva c qdc kno|rc/yadvc knd |jadn{ aiakvn{ advra jc{

    |crva{* w |nr jn vcdvn dqjn fa dqjgfcf cb{njqvc aj ckvn sqa kndvgadad fgk`n{

    fnkqoadvn{* w {a fakjcra knon aiakvn fa jn cdvargnr* sqa aj raiargfn gdoqabjamco{ {cjg faj |cvrgondgn fa {q kcq{cdva5 w

    3$2$;$/ |nr jc varkarc |ravad{gd* {qb{gfgcrgcoadva vcobgd* w |crc aj

    kc{n sqa jc cdvargnr ckkgd {a fakjcra {gd jqhcr* knd aj og{on kcrkvar fa

    `arafarn inr}n{n fa jc kgqfcfcdc * w knon kndvgdqcfnr fa {q |ar{ndcjgfcf

    mqrfgkc* faocdf c jn{ wc oadkgndcfn{ kgqfcfcdn{* |crc sqa kndyadhcd n ad

    {q faiakvn aj Vrgbqdcj fakjcra jc ra{njqkgd fa jc a{krgvqrc |bjgkc fa kno|rc/yadvc* w jn{ kndfada* kc{n fa fakjcrcr{a knd jqhcr jc faocdfc sqa adkcba}c

    jc{ |ra{adva{ ckvqckgnda{ |nr kqcjsqgarc fa jc{ vra{ ;' ckkgnda{ amarkgfc{* cj

    |chn fa jn{ fcn{ w |armqgkgn{ sqa ja kcq{crnd cj faocdfcdva cj |rgycrja faj

    q{n* hnka* fg{irqva w fg{|n{gkgd fa fgk`n gdoqabja* asqgycjadva cj |rakgn sqa

    vadc cj onoadvn fa gdvrnfqkgr{a jc faocdfc w |nr aj kqcj jn `qbgarc |nfgfn

    yadfar* fa kqcvrn ogjjnda{ kgadvn kqcradvc w {ag{ ogj bnjycra{ iqarva{ B{$

    6$369$

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    9

    2$/ IQDFCOADVN[ FA JC[ \RAVAD[GNDA[ OADKGNDCFC[

    2$3$/ Ad kqcdvn c jc \RGOARC \RAVAD[GD* ad |rgoar jqhcr {a

    a{vcbjakg jc KCQ[C [GOQJCDFG* c{=2$3$3$/ {a favarogd ad aj jgbajn fa faocdfc* sqa jc kcq{c {goqjcdfg {nd

    jc{ rc}nda{ sqa gdfqmarnd c jn{ {goqjcdva{ |crc racjg}cr aj ckvn {goqjcfn* sqa

    |nr jn hadarcj jjayc adyqajvn qd igd gjkgvn* bgad {ac kcq{cr |armqgkgn c qd

    varkarn ad a{va kc{n c qd `arafarn jahgvgocrgn cj |ravadfar |rgycrjn fa {q

    jahvgoc `arafgvcrgc n faircqfcr jc jaw ad a{va kc{n vcobgd* cj

    crvkqjn 00; faj Kfghn Kgygj sqa fg{|nda sqa jc jahvgoc a{ qdc kqnvc fajc `aradkgc sqa {a faba ad |jadc |rn|gafcf c jn{ fa{kadfgadva{5 w ad aj

    |ra{adva kc{n* jc kcq{c fa jc {goqjckgd iqa |ravadfar fa{|nmcr cj faocdfcdva

    fa jc jahvgoc |nrsqa jc yadfafnrc {q ocfra fa j mco{ cka|v {q

    kndfgkgd fa `arafarn jahgvgocrgn |nrsqa ajjc racjoadva dqdkc knd{gfar c

    {q `gmn5 fa cjj sqa |ravadfgadfn karkadcr aj farak`n sqa ja nvnrhc jc jaw c a{va

    c jc jahvgoc `arafgvcrgc* cd ad kndvrc fa {q ynjqdvcf* ad knddgyadkgc knd {q

    {nbrgdc w {q a{|n{n fa {vc* {goqjcrnd jc kno|rc/yadvc faj gdoqabja

    |ravadfgadfn bqrjcr jn{ farak`n{ `arafgvcrgn{ faj `gmn cfn|vgyn$

    Jc mqrg{|rqfadkgc raigara fn{ 2' kc{n{ ad sqa {a |ravadfg bqrjcr jn{

    farak`n{ fa jn{ `arafarn{ jahgvgocrgn{* oadkgndcfn{ ad aj jgbajn* |hgdc{ 36 w

    31$

    2$3$2$/ JC \RQABC FA JC KCQ[C [GOQJCDFG

    2$3$2$3$/ aj |rgoar gdfgkgn n |ra{qdkgd fa jc kcq{c {goqjcdfg iqanvnrhcfn |nr jn{ |rn|gn{ faocdfcfn{ ad {q kndva{vckgd c jc faocdfc

    kndva{vckgd fcfc* |nr kgarvn* c * sqgad wc dn arc |crva ad aj mqgkgn |nrsqa

    wc |crc a{c n|nrvqdgfcf `cbc kafgfn {q{ farak`n{ jgvghgn{n{ c jc {nkgafcf

    oarkcdvgj * kqcdfn fgkad= \nr kgarvn sqa aj `nw Ckvnrad jc |ra{adva

    kcq{c* iqa cfn|vcfn |nr jn{ icjjakgfn{ kgqfcfcdn{ sqgada{ iqarnd

    kdwqha{ advra { jn kqcj dqa{vrn{ ra|ra{advcfn{fgkad jn{ c|nfarcfn{jn{ faocdfcfn{' a{|arcd cd jn chrcfa}kc$

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    Vcj yarhnd}n{c ap|ra{gd ra|ra{advc* |nr |crva fa sqgada{ fgarnd

    gd{vrqkkgnda{ c {q{ c|nfarcfn{ ra|rnfqkgrjc* qdc kjcrc ocdgia{vckgd fa qd

    hrcya fa{asqgjgbrgn oadvcj {ghdcfn |nr qdc ocjfcf yg{karcj* {nrfc* irc agrrckgndcj sqa famc cj fa{kqbgarvn= c' qd adnroa w adiarog}n kno|jamn fa

    {q|argnrgfcf sqa jn{ `cka |ravadfar sqa aj faocdfcdva ja faba c ajjn{ {gd

    {ar ajjn{ cfn|vcdva{ cjhd chrcfakgogadvn |nrsqa {q vc w aj a{|n{n fa jc

    cfn|vcdva |cfra faj faocdfcdva sqgad dn hqcrfc dgdhd dapn knd

    jc {nbrgdc fa {q a{|n{c* dg vco|nkn dgdhqdn fa jn{ fn{ knd'* cfn|vcrnd c5

    b' |rfgfc fa jn{ ydkqjn{ knd jc racjgfcf sqa jn{ `cka {q|ndar sqa {ndckraafnra{ fa cjhd chrcfakgogadvn sqa dn {a ja{ faba5 w k' |nr {q|qa{vn aj

    nfgn rqgd sqa ja fabad vadar cj `gmn dcvqrcj* gjahvgon* cfqjvargdn* bc{vcrfn* |nr

    fakgr jn oadn{* |arn sqa {q |cfra vqyn aj ycjnr fa jjaycrjn c {q kc{c w

    kndyarvgrjn fa krgcfn knon jn iqarnd nvrc{ |ar{ndc{ ygkvgoc{ faj

    krgoad fa ja{c `qocdgfcf vg|gigkcfn knon a{kjcygvqf fno{vgkc* yarbghrckgc

    * |nr oadkgndcr {jn kqcvrn* 6' ad `gmn cfn|vgyn knd ynkckgd

    `arafgvcrgc* jn sqa dg {q a{|n{c dg jc {nbrgdc |raiargfc fa a{vc {gd fqfc'

    |qfgarnd {n|nrvcr* fa{aobnkcdfn vcj cbnrrakgogadvn ad aj dahnkgn {goqjcfn*

    ad aj ircqfa sqa |crc qdc {ghdgigk yadhcd}c ad kndvrc fa {q ocrgfn |arn ad

    jc |ar{ndc faj `gmn fa a{va jn sqa {qaja {qkafar knd irakqadkgc' w |crc jc nvrc

    jc {qkgc {cvg{ickkgd fa {csqacr qd |cvrgondgn sqa |nr jaw dn ja knrra{|ndfa

    |rakg{coadva c ajjc* |arn sqa {gao|ra sqg{n w sqa aj kn/faocdfcfn {q

    a{|n{n {q|q{n jc jnvarc {gd `cbar kno|rcfn aj vgkeav* |arn {gao|ra |ra{vnc dn `ckar nbmakgnda{ cqdsqa {a vrcva fa qd ckvn gjkgvn a gdonrcj* knd vcj sqa

    jn badaigkga$

    A{c{ {nd |ar{ndcjgfcfa{ {gkn|vgkc{ sqa vgadad qdc kc|ckgfcf fa

    ocdg|qjcr* fa adhccr w fa a{vcicr oqw hrcdfa$7

    2$3$2$2$/Aj {ahqdfn gdfgkgn n |ra{qdkgd a{ jc dnvc fa |qn w javrc sqa

    jc yadfafnrc {goqjcdva a{krgbg cj |ga faj fnkqoadvn nvnrhcfn |nr cdva jcDnvcrc \bjgkc Ygh{goc Kqcrvc fa Kcrckc{ ad Jn{ K`chqcrcon{* faj

    7$/ @arrarc Jqsqa* Ircdkg{kn w Fajhcfn [adgnr* Ircd}aj$

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    Fg{vrgvn Kc|gvcj* ad iak`c dqaya 7' fa mqdgn fa ogj dnyakgadvn{ dnyadvc w fn{

    3772'* cdnvcfn bcmn aj D 7

    qdc kno|rc/yadvc {goqjcfc c|adc{ sqgdka 31' fc{ fa{|q{* rahg{vrcfc aj

    |rgoarn 3' fa fgkgaobra fa ogj dnyakgadvn{ dnyadvc w fn{ 3772'$

    2$3$2$;$/ JC \RQABC KNDVQDFADVA FA JC KCQ[C[GOQJCDFG a{ jc fakjcrckgd fa jn{ va{vghn{ kgqfcfcdn{ * |jadcoadva

    gfadvgigkcfn{* sqgada{ |ra{vcrnd aj mqrcoadvn fa Jaw* ocdgia{vcrnd dn vadar

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    go|afgoadvn jahcj cjhqdn |crc fakjcrcr* dn iqarnd ra|rahqdvcfn{ w

    fa|q{garnd= sqa kndnkgarnd fa yg{vc* vrcvn w knoqdgkckgd c jn{

    kgqfcfcdn{* cigrocdfn aj {ahqdfn fa jn{ va{vghn{ sqa jn{ kndnkc fa{fa`ckc o{ fa {a{advc 9

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