Comparing Wimax & UMTS TDDThursday June 3 2004

by the Global UMTS TDD Alliance

Our Purpose

Created by members of the UMTS TDD community, the Alliance’s goal is to bolster the market for solutions based on standard-compatible UMTS TDD. Our objectives include:• Interaction: Cross vendor and cross operator venue for the

exchange of ideas and experience• Scale: Grow the market to increase the number of vendors, their

volumes, and hence improve the economies of scale for all UMTS TDD products

• Education: Promote UMTS TDD as the leading standard for broadband wireless by building the technology’s brand equity and educating the market.

Alliance Members

IQNetworks

Net2Cell

The Global UMTS TDD Alliance currently has 40 members.

Commercial Services Already Deployed

There are commercial deployments at1.9, 2.1, 2.5, 2.6, 3.4 GHz

– Germany – Airdata 2.5– Japan – IPMobile 2.0– Malaysia – Atlas One 2.5– Portugal – Sonaecom 1.9– South Africa – Sentech 2.5– USA – Maui Sky Fiber 2.5– Australia – IQ Networks– Woosh Wireless – New Zealand 2.0– 15 others that haven’t announced

UMTS TDD Is On The Map

AMERICAS EMEA

CHINA

IQNetworks

UNITED STATES+1

IRELANDUK

FRANCEITALY

AUSTRIA

MALAYSIA +1

SINGAPORE

HONG KONG

* Countries listed for unannounced deployments

Performance Of TDD

Cannot get real Wimax data yet

Wimax (802.16e) and UMTS TDD

Wimax (e version)• Standard under IEEE

sometime soon• Performance ?• Commercial products not

designed (2007?)• Uses IP core network• Vapor• CPE cost (a) $500? (e)?

UMTS TDD• Standard under 3GPP

since release 99• Performance 12Mb/sector• Commercial products

selling in market (2003)• Can use GPRS core or IP• Market Proven• CPE cost = <$300

But being vaporware is a big advantage when you want to spin a product. Vaporware can do everything well.

The Biggest Difference

What’s the biggest difference between UMTS TDD and WiMAX?

• TIMING

Timing Comparison Table

TARGET MARKET

NOWBy Q2 2005WiFi Backhaul

NOWBy YE 2005?Residential “Carrier Grade” VOIP

NOWPortability by 2007?Mobile Enterprise Data

By Q1 2005

NOW

NOW

NOW

NOW

Portability by 2007?Mobile WiFi Backhaul

By 2007?Mobile VOIP

By 2007?Mobile Broadband

By YE 2005?Residential Mass Market Broadband

By Q2 2005SOHO Connectivity

By Q2 2005SMB Connectivity

By Q2 2005Enterprise Connectivity

By Q2 2005Cellular Backhaul

WIMAX dates from Wimax forum web site and public presentations

Customers Want Mobile Broadband Today

7% 9% 8%

37%

20%

13%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

D efin itelyw ould not

2 3 N eutra l 5 6 D efin itelyw ould

In terest in Portable B roadband Services(n = 3,370 U .S . B roadband H ouseholds)

Source : U nlicensed B roadband W ire less: S olutions and A pplications© 2003 Parks Associates

38%

Almost 40% of US Broadband Subscribers Would Switch to a Wide-Area Portable Broadband Service at Same Speed and Price

THE QUESTIONNew broadband Internet services are available that offer features and speeds similar to your

current service (DSL or Cable Modem) at the

same price, but allow you to use broadband

wirelessly both within your home and in your

neighborhood. How likely would you be to switch to

such a service?

How To Avoid The Hype CycleName your technology with one Four-letter acronym and one Three-letter acronym. It’s as sexy as lint.

• Accusations that the BBC “sexed-up” the name are false.Focus on going to market instead of generating buzz3G UMTS certainly rode the wave, and is starting to deliver

UMTS TDD’s Quiet Path

Gartner Hype Cycle

Hype

Time

Wimax today

UMTS TDD today3G FDD

today

TDD no-hype shortcut

But Don’t Take My Word For It

“Enterprises should continue watching the technology but not consider short-term deployment” Gartner Research Brief, May 11 2004

Will there really be any market opportunity left in 2009?

VALUE PROPOSITION TIMING

Capacity Fill In for WCDMA 2007-2008

“Hot Zones” for Mobile Enterprise 2005-2006

Ubiquitous Broadband Services 2004-2005

1999

2002

2004

Many operators have evolved their views on both the value proposition and timing for TDD.

A Change In The Way Operators See TDDA Change In The Way Operators See TDD

Key Market Trends Growth in broadband, laptops, and digital media

Centrino and WiFi Have Taught Benefits of MobilityBut it’s a limited mobility, like a dog on a leash

The Performance of Packet-Based TDD5x the performance of WCDMA for data

Non-Traditional Operator Success with TDDProving the business model and consumer appeal

Emergence of Competitive Technologies / OperatorsWiFi, WiMAX, UMTS TDD 2500 & 3400

Why The Change In The View of UMTS TDD

Case Study: Woosh Wireless, New Zealand

• Commercial services launched in September 2003

• By end-2004 – near ubiquitous coverage of Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington, and rural regional award areas

• In first 8 weeks – signed up 1% of HHs in coverage

• Outselling DSL 2 to1 in coverage

end