ultra fast broadband update - crowninfrastructure.govt.nz€¦ · programs to maximise ufb &...
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Ultra Fast Broadband update
Graham Mitchell, Chief Executive Officer
TEL.CON12
17 April 2012
17 April 2012 2
Topics for today:
• Progress with deployment
• Likely sources of demand
• UFB opportunities for RSPs
• International developments
• Summary
17 April 2012 3
Deployment progress:
• 14 urban centres underway • All urban centres underway during 2012-13 • Target 70K premises by 30/6
10%
19%
10%
61%
Year 1 premises passed:
Images: Northpower Fibre, Whangarei; Chorus, Kelson
17 April 2012 4
Long term deployment view:
Premises Passed by Segment (Cumulative)
Premises Passed by Partner (Incremental per annum)
Priority Premises Passed
Non Priority Premises Passed
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Notes: graphs show years to end June.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
17 April 2012 5
UFB progress:
~60,000 end users, mostly businesses, can access UFB P2P & Dark Fibre on demand today
Penrose / East Tamaki / Manukau:
Illustrative
Christchurch:
UFB Year 1 & 2 Business Fibre
17 April 2012 6
Deployment consultation:
• Local Councils: Successful consultation on Year 2 plans
• Schools: All candidate areas commencing Year 2
• Health: DHBs consulted by Health IT Board, CFH and MED
• Business: Focus on specific sectors & industry verticals
Stakeholder consultation is ongoing & suggests growing momentum in UFB build will drive reasonable uptake
17 April 2012 7
UFB schools deployment:
16.5%
18.2%
34.4%
30.9%
241
265
502
451 1459
Pre-UFB fibred
schools
FY12 UFB plan (to 30
June)
FY13 Chorus commitment
Balance to finish
Total urban
schools
100%
Number of schools
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
17 April 2012 8
School usage of UFB:
17 April 2012 9
Digital Leadership Forums:
Local communities are taking the lead in building programs to maximise UFB & RBI opportunities
Whangarei
Auckland Hamilton
Tauranga
New Plymouth Napier-Hastings
Wanganui
Wellington Nelson
Christchurch
Dunedin
Invercargill
Digital Leadership Forum in action
Digital Leadership Forum being explored/ instigated
Other digital strategy initiative(s)
NOT EXHAUSTIVE
Purpose: Brings together local stakeholders on demand & supply side to realise UFB benefits
Objectives: To develop & execute a strategy to realise local economic development goals using UFB
17 April 2012 10
Likely sources of demand: Priority segments
• GCIO priorities
• WAN
• WAN on fibre • Strong CIO demand • VM-ware • Centralising IT • Video conferencing • Collaboration • Cloud • Remote working
• Pent-up demand
• National data • e-learning • Network For
Learning
Enterprise:
Health:
SME:
Carrier:
Government:
• Imaging • VC
consultation • Aligned
Health IT plan
• Cost reduction • WAN • VoIP • Cloud apps &
back-up • Remote working
• 3G & LTE • Non-Building
Address Points
• Community Wi-Fi
• SCADA
Schools:
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Likely sources of demand: Residential
Higher speed Internet access
Back-up & cloud based storage
Working at & from home
Extended school learning
Advanced gaming
Real-time entertainment
Home security
Examples:
Home VC, uploading media
Home Monitoring & Control
17 April 2012 12
In the Home: Video is changing
• Netflix Movies: 33% of US peak download
• HBO Go app hits 1 million downloads in first week
• OIPF TV Browser, supported by all major TV OEMs
• AT&T/Cisco release of wireless set-top box – no more cables !
13
Real-Time Entertainment dominating:
• Asia-Pac: PPStream and PPLive together account > 37% of the upstream.
• P2P file sharing and web browsing diminishing
• Internet is being increasingly used as a broadcast entertainment medium
17 April 2012
14
US: Internet Peak now looks like TV peak
• US daily maximum ~ 8:45 p.m. to 10:45 p.m.
• Within 6 months peak period reduced from 2.5 to 2 hours
• AsiaPac peak at 9pm to 11.30pm
• Entertainment Video concurrency ratios much higher than internet
17 April 2012
UFB not contended, allowing high concurrency & quantity for video
15
Data usage growing:
• Netflix user averages 40-80 GB/month (5-10 movies)
• Growth entertainment driven – local
• Locally hosted to minimise latency/cost
17 April 2012
Source: Sandvine Network Demographics, Nov 2011.
Day Week Month Upstream 384.9MB 2.3GB 6.6GB Downstream 1.3GB 8.9GB 24.2GB Aggregate 1.7GB 11.2GB 30.8GB
Mean consumption Asia-Pacific Fixed Access
17 April 2012 16
Performance beyond the UFB PoI:
Corporate Office
Household
Household
100/50 Mbps
10/2.5 CIR <1ms
UFB PoI
ISP: • CIR ? • Mbps ? • ms ?
UFB Network RSP backhaul & cloud
UFB Network delivers high quality; RSPs control experience beyond PoI
17 April 2012 17
Home wiring: Double play
Home wiring should not be an issue for most UFB users
Copper Ethernet
Coaxial cable Fibre
18
Verizon FiOS continues to grow ARPU and share in highly competitive US market
Case study: FiOS (USA)
17 April 2012
• FTTH 61% of consumer revenue: o 20% YoY growth in triple play o ARPU US$148+
• FiOS video: o 4.2m subscribers, 194 net adds o 32% penetration
• FiOS Internet: o 4.8m subscribers, 201 net adds o 36% penetration
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Case study: HKBN (Hong Kong)
In a highly competitive telco market, HKBN has 30% FTTP uptake & increasing profits.
17 April 2012
Example plans: • 100Mbps plan: NZ$31/ month • 1Gbps plan: $42/ month • International speeds: 20Mbps • Wi-Fi hotspots free • Free mobile handset or retail
voucher.
Net additions (‘000)
Total market adds (31 Dec Y/E)*
HKBN adds (31 Aug Y/E)
Source: OTFA, Hong Kong regulator.
17 April 2012 20
Case study: NBN Co retail plans
Willunga, South Australia: 29% uptake
Kiama, NSW: 26% uptake
Speed: (Mbps)
Cap: (GB)
Price: (A$)
Features:
25 / 5
200
$74.90
25 / 5
120 50 peak, 70 off peak
$64.94
• All local & national calls
• No set-up fee
• 24 month contract
• ABC iView, Fetch TV etc. zero-rated
• $30 of voice calls
• $79 setup fee
• 24 month contract
17 April 2012 21
Summary:
• Deployment advancing:
– Substantial coverage by 30 June 2012 + 2013
– UFB P2P available now in most CBDs
• All UFB networks activated mid-2012
• Opportunity for RSP differentiation:
– Upstream from UFB
– Packages
– Applications / content
• FTTH gaining momentum internationally
17 April 2012 22
Thank you!
CFH contact: Rohan MacMahon, Strategy Director E: rohan.macmahon <at> crownfibre.govt.nz Ph: 09 912 1970