ulster bank ni pmi december 2015 slidepack
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Ulster Bank NI PMI December 2015 Slidepack](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052606/58ee66951a28aba9778b45d7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
December 2015 Survey Update
Issued 11th January 2016
Richard RamseyChief Economist Northern Ireland
Twitter @UB_Economics
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PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to 100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above 50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change (expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to more accurately identify the broad trends.
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Global output growth eases to a 12-month low with both services & manufacturing slowing in December
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Composite PMIs for China & the US (Markit PMI not ISM) both posted notable declines in December
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Developed Markets PMI slips to an 11-month low (53.8) but continues to outperform Emerging Markets (49.5)
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Emerging Markets PMI back below 50 but only just. India, bucks the wider trend being followed by its fellow BRICS
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Chinese Composite PMI back below 50 and at a 21-month low with slowdown spreading to services (17-mth low)
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Australia’s services sector hits a 13-month low while manufacturing eases from its recent 25-month high
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Italy posts its highest reading since February 2011 with France slipping to an 11-month low
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EZ manufacturing & services continue to post output growth but retail & construction activity still contracting
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The Eurozone composite PMI signals a loss of momentum in Q3 but some improvement in Q4
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The Republic of Ireland, Germany, the UK & Italy posted the fastest rates of service sector output growth
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Manufacturing activity picked-up in EZ, with Japan maintaining its growth rate. US & China still contracting
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Developed Markets continue to outperform Emerging Markets in terms of manufacturing
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UK & RoI manufacturing output growth still ranks higher than most with NI in the bottom half of the table
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UK, NI and RoI firms all report an easing in their respective rates of business growth in December
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PMI suggests growth in DFP’s private sector composite index during 2014 but recovery stalls in Q1-15 with a modest rebound in Q2 to Q4
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2014 was the 1st year in 7 years that the 4 main indicators recorded expansion, repeated in 2015 but growth slowed
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New orders growth slows in Q4 but output growth rate maintained with exports & jobs growth accelerating
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NI firms reported an easing in the rate of output & jobs growth in December but a slight pick-up in orders growth
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NI firms report a pick-up in new orders growth in December but still lag way behind the UK & RoI
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Backlogs of work continue to grow amongst RoI firms with levels of outstanding work for NI & UK firms flat
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Northern Ireland export orders rebound in December
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RoI jobs growth continues but eases to a 23-month low. Employment growth for NI & UK eases slightly
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PMI signalled a slowdown in jobs growth in H2-14 but employment growth has accelerated since then
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Input cost inflation hit its highest rate for the year in December with output prices broadly flat
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Regional Comparisons
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All UK regions end 2015 in expansion mode but only just for Scotland
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All UK regions posted growth in Q4 with Scotland’s growth rate marginal. NI still lagging behind the UK
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The RoI reported the fastest rate of growth in business activity in 2015 with NI & Scotland the slowest
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Scotland posts a fall in employment levels in December with NI’s rate of job creation broadly in line with the UK
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Scotland and the North East post the weakest rates of job creation within the UK in Q4
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Scotland, the North East & NI posted the weakest rates of jobs growth over the last year with the RoI the strongest
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SectoralComparisons
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UK construction industry was the only sector to post an acceleration in output growth in December
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The UK’s growth rate in Q3 moderated in line with the PMI to 0.4% q/q. A slight improvement is expected in Q4
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Manufacturing & construction output growth picks up in December while services activity slows from recent high
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Retail & construction posted stronger rates of growth in H2 than H1 while services held steady & manufacturing slowed
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NI manufacturing output flat, services output slowing but construction firms post a pick-up in output growth
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Jobs growth within the services & construction sectors accelerates while manufacturing industry is losing jobs
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NI’s manufacturing firms report a rebound in output & orders in December but pace of job losses accelerates
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RoI & NI firms post a sharp slowdown in output growth in Q4 with UK firms recording a pick-up in activity
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NI firms report a marked divergence in manufacturing orders growth than their equivalents in the UK & RoI
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All economies saw an acceleration in output growth in December with Greece & NI back above 50
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Higher wage costs are driving input costs higher with output price deflation continuing
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NI manufacturing firms now reporting job losses at their fastest pace in 2½ years. UK & RoI are still creating jobs
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NI PMI signals moderation in jobs growth in H2-14 & Q1-15 following record high in Q2-14. Job losses apparent in Q4
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NI services sector experiences a pick-up in new orders & employment growth but output growth eases
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NI diverges from the UK & RoI with firms reporting a slowdown in service sector output growth
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The rate of growth in NI’s services sector slows and remains well below the pre-downturn long-term average
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RoI firms still report very strong rates of new orders growth whilst growth amongst NI & UK firms lags behind
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Input cost & output price inflation accelerate with output prices rising at their fastest rate since Sept-08
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NI firms report a marked acceleration in jobs growth in Q4 which is now in line with the UK but well below RoI
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Pace of job creation within services sector eased in H2-14 but has picked up and accelerated throughout 2015
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NI retailers report a modest fall in sales and a notable decline in orders but pace of jobs growth accelerates
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NI retailers report output price deflation with output prices recently falling at their fastest rate since June 2009
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NI’s construction firms report rising rates of output, orders & employment growth but activity largely linked to GB
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Input cost inflation remains subdued as local firms continue to enjoy pricing power
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NI’s construction PMI posts jobs growth Q3-13 to Q4-15 with a dip in employment in Q3-15
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UK & RoI firms reporting strong rates of output growth with NI firms catching up
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New orders growth accelerating in the UK, RoI and NI
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UK firms report a slowdown in the rate of growth in civil engineering & housing activity with commercial holding up
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UK sub-contractors remain in short-supply with rates charged still rising albeit the pace of change is slowing
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Optimism amongst UK construction firms remains high
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All aspects of RoI construction activity have reported a pick-up in their growth rates in recent months
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RoI’s construction industry still reporting a decrease in the availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay
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RoI construction firms still remain very optimistic about the year ahead
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Slide 68
Disclaimer
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