UKIP and the Left Behind:

Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right

Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin

Why are we here?

Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates

Why UKIP was a long-time coming

(and may have a long way to run)

Decline of the British Working Class, 1964-2012

Source: BES 1964-83; BSA 1984-12; class measured using Goldthorpe–Heath 5-category class schema

Rise of the Educated Middle Class, 1964-2012

Source: British Election Studies 1964-1983; British Social Attitudes 1984-2012

Class and educational divides in EU support...

Source: British Social Attitudes 1993-2012

Immigration divides us by class, education, and generation...

Source: British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey 2004-13

The working class feel more left out than ever before

Source: British Social Attitudes 1986-2012

What all this means: UKIP are mobilising the “Left behind”

So who are the UKIP voters?

UKIP’s base: male, pale, stale, and struggling

The Brussels Plus: Not just single-issue Eurosceptics..

They are very unhappy about both parties’ performance on immigration and the crisis…

....and very hostile to both parties’ leaders

UKIP Support among Different Groups 2004-2013: “Doubling Down” on the Left Behind

Strong Euroscepti

cs

Weak Eurosceptic

s

Europhiles

Populism - dissatisfied with democracyBlair: 2004-7 15 5 0.6Brown: 2007-10 12 5 0.6Cameron I: 2010-11 20 5 0.4Cameron II: 2012-13 38 15 1

Share of sample 14 18 21

Immigration - rate importance of asylum 10 out of 10Blair: 2004-7 14 6 1Brown: 2007-10 11 5 0.8Cameron I: 2010-11 16 5 0.8Cameron II: 2012-13 36 14 2

Share of the sample 15 16 11

Labour’s 2015 problem

UKIP is recruiting mainly former Cons…

…from the dissatisfied groups Labour ought to be reconnecting with

Labour’s post 2010 rebound is strongest where UKIP’s appeal is weakest

Labour’s 2020 problemSeat Incumbent

1. Clacton Con2. Rhondda Lab3. Blaenau Gwent Lab4. Kingston-upon-Hull East Lab5. Eastington Lab6. Knowsley Lab7. Barnsley Lab8. Aberavon Lab9. Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymeney Lab10. Doncaster North Lab11. Liverpool Walton Lab12. Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford

Lab

13. Great Grimsby Lab14. Ashfield Lab15. Bolsover Lab16. Boston and Skegness Con17. Cynon Valley Lab18. Wentworth and Dearne Lab19. Redcar LD20. Houghton and Sunderland South Lab

Incumbent party, top 100 UKIP-leaning seats

What we just said in far more detail…

@robfordmancs

@GoodwinMJ