Phenological Cosmic Power, Itty Bitty Living SpaceAnna Rossi || FYS Urban Ecology

What is Phenology Anyways…● studies of plant and animal cycles ● how climate variations and habitat changes alter these

cycles● global climate change (specifically temperature) has caused

huge phenological shifts for animals across the globe● extensive shifts and time commitment makes studying

phenology very difficult○ many studies have been performed over decades and

continue to collect data● mainly looked at bud burst timing for local vegetation

C8B

Climate Change & Phenology● Phenological shifts mostly occur due to increased

greenhouse gasses4

○ seen mostly over the past few decades● accelerated quite quickly despite shortened time frame● warming periods have been seen specifically between two

periods: 1910s-40s and 1976 to present4

○ most significant are rising surface temperatures over past 30 years■ average increase of 0.2℃ per decade²■ other reports indicate increases between 0.5-1.0℃4

■ boreal regions have experienced increasing temperatures up to 4℃ higher³

■ tropic regions have seen less impact³● climate change has also created shift in phenological timing

○ at sea → phenology has increased by 4.3 days/decade¹○ on land → phenology happening 2.3 - 2.8 days/decade

faster¹○ 385 plant species in the last decade have seen an increase

by an average of 4.5 days4

● created shift in migration patterns, bud bursts, and mating times, among other species functions³

References1. Burrows, Michael; Schoemen, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Moore, Pippa; Poloczanska, Elvira; Brander, Keith M.; Brown, Chris; Bruno,

John F.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O’Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Schwing, Franklin B.; Sydeman, William J.; Richardson, Anthony J. 2011. The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems. Science. 334:652-655

2. Cleland, Elsa E.; Chuine, Isabelle; Menzel, Annette; Mooney, Harold A.; Schwartz, Mark D. 2007. Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 22. 357-363.

3. Parmesan, Camille. 2007. Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Global Change Biology. 13. 1860-1872.

4. Lou, Zhongkui; Sun, Osbert J.; Ge, Quensheng; Xu, Wenting; Zheng, Jingyun. Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment. Ecol Res. 22. 507-514.

Parmesan (2007)³: Fig. 2 Changes in timing of spring events in days decade -1 for individual species grouped by taxonomy or functional type for the combined dataset. Each bar represents a separate, independent species. Negative values indicate advancement (earlier phenology through time) while positive values indicate delay (later phenology through time).

2.24.15 || 5:20 pm || 21℉ / -6.1℃

2.25.15 || 5:12 pm || 37℉ / 2.8℃

2.26.15 || 5:34 pm || 25℉ / -3.9℃

3.12.15 || 5:23 pm || 46℉ / 7.8℃

3.29.15 || 5:33 pm || 47℉ / 8.3℃

3.30.15 || 5:30 pm || 51℉ / 10.6℃

4.15.15 || 5:20 pm || 70℉ / 21.6℃

Mismatching Phenology● some scientists hypothesize that phenological changes are

occurring differently across globe depending on geographic location¹○ some species are believed to be capable of responding to

phenological changes accordingly¹ ○ track “rate of isotherm migration over space and seasons

to maintain thermal niches”¹● though phenological diversity is key for species

cohabitation, alternating shifts in flora and fauna that rely on each other for survival can create trends of mismatching phenology²,³

● for instance, despite warming temperatures it is possible that an insect may develop earlier in the season why the plant it feeds from doesn’t bloom until later in the season³

Case Study: Spain Butterflies³● 16 butterfly species studied● phenological advancement tied to both family and

“functional grouping of species’ host plant”³● species who fed on grass rather had stronger advancement

due to resources strength than larvae feeding on herbs● herb phenology was nearly 4x slower than butterfly

phenology

Burrows et al. (2007): Trends in land (Climate Research Unit data set CRU Ts3.1) and ocean (Hadley Center data set Had1SST 1.1) temperatures for 1960-2009

First bud bursts seen in Slonim Woods (on tree branch -- have been blooming slowly possibly due to leaf formation and restricted light)Taken 3.14.15

1970 Study: Wintermoth and Oak trees³● UK → higher mortality of winter moth due to mismatches

between egg hatch and budburst on oak trees● studies have shown that changes have occurred in

conjunction with global warming but haven’t changed in synchrony

1962-2004 Study: C. chinensis (Chinese redbud), P. davidiana (Chinese wild peach), and H. syriacus (Rose

of Sharon)4

*study was broken into two time frames: 1962-77 and 1977-2004

● from 1962-77: no significant changes except in C. chinensis ● 1978 - 2004: budburst occurrence increased ● opening of first flowers advance in C. chinensis and P.

davidiana but delayed in H. syriacus● leaf coloring and falling changed significantly between the

two time frames as well (C. chinensis and P. davidiana)● H. syriacus experienced much less change in comparison to

C. chinensis and P. davidiana

First blooms out near Slonim Woods (image was taken down by pathway rather than up in woods -- assuming blooms are more common as trees are of a flowering variety rather than leaflets as well as having more access to direct sunlight) Taken 3.28.15