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Tides and Waves for the National Weather Service River Forecast System

TIDES AND WAVES FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM

Mr. Yuji Funakoshi

Dr. Scott C. Hagen, P.E.



Outline

• Pseudo-Operational Forecast and Science Goals

• Finite Element Meshes

• St. Johns River Hydrodynamic Modeling Results

• St. Johns River Hurricane Floyd Modeling Results

• Conclusions

• Future Work



Dr. Pedro Restrepo, NOAA/NWS/OHD

Ms. Reggina Cabrera, SERFC



NOAA/NWS/OHD Project Goals

• Development of a 2D model for the St. Johns River to

predict in real-time flow, tides (astronomic and

meteorologic)

i. Develop the model and examine test cases

ii. Examine uni-coupling model of short and long wave models

iii. Fully couple the short and long wave models



Works Completed by February 7, 2005

• Model calibration for the entire Western North Atlantic Tidal

(WNAT) Model domain.

• Development of a preliminary finite element mesh for St.

Johns River.

• Preliminary tidal hydrodynamic simulation for St. Johns

River.



Works Completed by January 20, 2006

• Development of some finite element meshes.

– Including more tributaries.

– Pseudo-operational model.

• Tidal hydrodynamic simulations

• Hurricane Floyd storm surge simulations



Western North Atlantic Tidal (WNAT) Model Domain

North America

South America

CentralAmerica

Open-Ocean Boundary 60o W M

eridian

Edge of Blake’s

Escarpment

Continental

shelf bre

akFlorid

a



Mayport

Wekela

Lake George

Florida Coast

JacksonvilleBuffalo Bluff

St. Johns River Region

Flow



Code name = WNAT-SJR 75,436 nodes138,622 elementsMax node space = 160 kmMin node space = 50 m

70oW80oW

30oN

20oN

10oN

110 km

100 km

160 km

Flo

rid

a

60oW

Cuba

North America

South America

CentralAmerica

1 km



Code name = Pseudo-operational 26,543 nodes47,763 elementsMax node space = 40kmMin node space = 50 m

Flor

ida

Coa

st

1

Mayport

Jacksonville

80 m

170 m50 m

2

50 m

450 m

100 m

200 m

3

50 m

200 m

50 m

70 m

Buffalo Bluff

4

80 m

400 m

Lake George

Wekela

110 m

110 m



Numerical Model

• ADCIRC-2DDI (ADvanced CIRCulation, Two-Dimensional Depth-

Integrated, Barotropic Time-dependent Long Wave Model)

– Solving the Generalized Wave Continuity Equation (GWCE, Luettich et

al., 1992) and non-conservative momentum equations.

– Wetting and Drying algorithm.

– Meteorological input (i.e., wind direction, wind stress, and pressure)



Model Setup for Tidal Hydrodynamics w/o Inflow

• 90 days simulation.

• Time steps = 5 s.

• Open boundary forcing (K1, O1, M2, S2, N2, K2, and Q1).

• Bottom friction coefficient Cb = 0.0025.

• Pseudo-Operational Model

• No inflow from tributaries.

• No meteorological input.



1

2

3

4

Mayport

Wekela

Lake George

Buffalo Bluff

12 NOS Tidal Stationsin St. Johns RiverHarmonic AnalysisNOS : 37 tidal constituentsModel: 23 tidal constituents

8720832 WELAKA, SJR , FL

8720625 RACY POINT, SJR , FL

Days into Resynthesis

De

via

tio

n f

rom

M.S

.L.

(m)


De

via

tio

n f

rom

M.S

.L.

(m)


De

via

tio

n f

rom

M.S

.L.

(m)

8720220 MAYPORT , FL



2005 Atlantic Storm Tracks



Model Setup for Tidal Hydrodynamics w/ Inflows

• 122 days simulation (June 1 to September 30, 2005).



• Bottom friction coefficient Cb = 0.0025.


• Inflow from tributaries using USGS gage data.

• No meteorological input.



WWTD, MAYPORT NAVAL STA.

I-295 BRIDGE, WEST END

BUFFALO BLUFF

ADCIRC Inflow LocationsCalibration Location

USGS gage Locations



1

Mayport

8720211 WWTD, MAYPORT NAVAL STA., SJR , FL



2

8720357 I-295 BRIDGE, WEST END, SJR , FL

Inflow



3

Buffalo Bluff

8720767 BUFFALO BLUFF, SJR , FL

Inflow

(no data)



Residual vs. Precipitation and Winds

Daily precipitations at Jacksonville, FL

Da

ily

pre

cip

ita

tio

ns

[in

]

Daily precipitations at Jacksonville, FL

Da

ily

pre

cip

ita

tio

ns

[in

]

Da

ily

re

sid

ua

l [m

]

Da

ily

av

era

ge

d a

nd

ma

x

win

d s

pe

ed

[m

ph

]

Daily averaged and max wind speed at Jacksonville, FL

Da

ily

av

era

ge

d a

nd

ma

x

win

d s

pe

ed

[m

ph

]

Daily averaged and max wind speed at Jacksonville, FL

Da

ily

re

sid

ua

l [m

]



Residual vs. Precipitation and Winds

Daily precipitations at Sanford, FL

Da

ily

pre

cip

ita

tio

ns

[in

]

Daily precipitations at Sanford, FL

Da

ily

pre

cip

ita

tio

ns

[in

]

Da

ily

re

sid

ua

l [m

]

Da

ily

av

era

ge

d a

nd

ma

x

win

d s

pe

ed

[m

ph

]

Daily averaged and max wind speed at Sanford, FL

Da

ily

re

sid

ua

l [m

]

Da

ily

av

era

ge

d a

nd

ma

x

win

d s

pe

ed

[m

ph

]

Daily averaged and max wind speed at Sanford, FL



Model Setup for Hurricane Floyd Storm Surge

• 4.75 days simulation (September 12 to 16, 1999).



• Bottom friction coefficient BF_0.001 and BF_0.0025


• Inflow from tributaries using USGS gage data.

• Meteorological input (wind stress and pressure)



Hurricane Floyd

Hurricane Floyd Track

Florida

Puerto Rico

North Carolina

Atlantic Ocean

(NOAA, 1999)



9/15/99 22:00 (H3)

9/15/99 20:00 (H3)

9/15/99 18:00 (H3)

9/15/99 16:00 (H3)

9/15/99 13:00 (H4)

9/15/99 10:00 (H4)

9/15/99 7:00 (H4)

De

via

tio

n f

rom

M.S

.L.

(m)

8720587 ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH, ATLANTIC OCEAN , FL

De

via

tio

n f

rom

M.S

.L.

(m)

8720220 MAYPORT , FL

De

via

tio

n f

rom

M.S

.L.

(m)

8720030 FERNANDINA BEACH, AMELIA RIVER , FL

De

via

tio

n f

rom

M.S

.L.

(m)

8720832 WELAKA, FL



Conclusions

• Successful Hydrodynamic Model for the St. Johns River

• Tradeoffs:

– Large Domain vs. Inlet-Based Pseudo-Operational Domain

• Hurricane Floyd Simulation Results

– For the SJR, meteorological forcings are more important than inflows



Future Works

• Employ output from a wind-driven short wave model with a

long wave model and produce a uni-directional coupling of

the two models

• Fully couple the short wave model with the long wave model

• Explore the effect this modeling approach



The Image of the Coupling Domain

20 m

Ocean Circulation Model Domain

Global Wave Model Domain

Local Wave Model Domain



Short Wave Model(s)

• The third generation wave models (e.g., WAM, SWAN,

WAVEWATCH-III, and STWAVE models).

– Integrates the basic transport equation describing the evolution of a two-

dimensional ocean wave spectrum without additional assumption.

– Source functions (i.e., wind input, nonlinear wave-wave interaction, and

white-capping dissipation, etc.,).

– Applied to ocean wave forecasting all over the world.

– Global model > 20 m (Global WAM, WAVEWATCH-III)

– Local model < 20 m (Local WAM, SWAN, STWAVE)



Manuscripts & Publications

Dietsche, D., S.C. Hagen, and P. Bacopoulos, “Storm Surge Simulations for Hurricane Hugo (1989):

On the Significance of Inundation Areas,” Journal of Waterways, Port, Coastal, and Ocean

Engineering, In Revision.

S.C. Hagen, A. Zundel and S. Kojima, “Automatic, Unstructured Mesh Generation for Tidal

Calculations in a Large Domain,” International Journal of Computational Fluid Dynamics, In

Review.

Salisbury, M.B. and S.C. Hagen, “The Effect of Tidal Inlets on Open Coast Storm Surge

Hydrographs,” Coastal Engineering, In Review.

Funakoshi, Y. and S.C. Hagen, “A Tide and Storm Surge Model for the St. Johns River,” Ocean

Engineering, In Review.

M. Salisbury and S.C. Hagen, “The Effect of Tidal Inlets on Storm Surge Hydrographs,”

Proceedings, WAVES 2005, Madrid, Spain, CD-ROM, July 3-7, 2005.

Y. Funakoshi and S.C. Hagen, “Towards an Integrable Short and Long Wave Model for Tidal

Hydrodynamics,” Proceedings, WAVES 2005, Madrid, Spain, CD-ROM, July 3-7, 2005.



Satoshi Kojima, M.S.W.R. (Graduated SU05)

Yuji Funakoshi, Ph.D. Candidate

D. Michael Parrish, Ph.D. Qualified

Peter Bacopoulos, Masters Student

David Coggin, Masters Student

Mike Salisbury, Masters Student

Naeko Takahashi, ESL Student

Acknowledgements

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