ucas update & news - university of exeter · security marking: public 2018 statistics 695,565...

Security marking: PUBLIC

UCAS update & news

Alan JonesProfessional Development Executive


2018 statistics

695,565 applicants (circa. 59% of them UK 18 year olds)

1.9million+ offers

533,360 accepted onto courses

381,560 accepted to firm choice

35,185 accepted to insurance choice

66,770 accepted via Clearing

49,250 accepted via Clearing after main scheme

17,520 accepted via Clearing direct (applied after 18:00 on 30 June)

5,025 accepted via Extra and 880 accepted via Adjustment

76.7%acceptance rate

Applicants down, acceptances stable, acceptance rate up

695,565 applicants (0.6% decrease)

533,360 acceptances (0.1% decrease)

76.7% acceptance rate (0.4 percentage point increase)

Circa. 60% of UCAS applicants are UK 18 year olds (609k in England in 2018 (-14.6k compared to 2017)


Clearing is increasingly becoming a large part of the recruitment strategies for even the largest higher tariff HEPs. (49.3k Clearing main scheme accepts; 17.5k Clearing direct accepts).

As a result, the Clearing period is particularly competitive, and now happens much faster than in the past.

We are also starting to see a change in behaviour, as more students than ever before are applying directly to Clearing.

Clearing behaviour

a high proportion of Clearing direct applicants are UK domiciled (circa 90%) and approximately 2/3 of Clearing direct applicants are mature.

BUT…


Growth in placed at higher and lower tariff providers

Lower: 210.7k (+1.8k, +0.8%)

Medium: 172.4k (-2.7k, -1.5%)

Higher: 150.3k (+400, +0.3%)

Differentiation across grade profiles

Marginal declines in offer rates for the highest grades (AAA or above)

Notable increases in offer rates to those with lower attainment (CCD to EEE)

Increases in entry rate for most regions in England

Increases for six regions.

Decreases for: East of England, North East, and Yorkshire and the Humber.

Flattening for South West

Previously, increases for all regions, for 5 years.


The pool of 18 year olds sees continued decline until 2020, but then a steepincrease over thenext decade.


Competition for places is likely to increase as UK based 18 year olds make up the largest of the applicant pool each year.

Don’t become complacent – over the next few years ensure that your support mechanisms and procedures are robust and will be fit for purpose going forward.

Ensure that all supporting advisers keep up to date with changing systems, services and tools.

So what?


10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Entr

y ra

te f

or

UK

18

yea

r o

lds

Gap in entry rates for young men and women is largest ever

Women: 38.3% (+0.6 pct pts vs. 2017)

Men: 26.7% (+0.2 pct pts)

Among UK 18 year olds, women are now 36.7%times more likely to enter HE through UCAS than men.

This is the first year that the difference in entry rates has exceeded ten percentage points.


Other entry rate comparisons for UK 18 year olds (compared to 2017)

Black: 42.7% (+2.5 pct pts)

Asian: 41.9% (+2.0 pct pts)

White: 30.9% (no change)

Other: 36.8% (+0.9 pct pts)

Mixed: 33.2% (+0.3 pct pts)


0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Entr

y ra

te f

or

Engl

ish

18

yea

r o

lds Q5: 46.9% (+0.1 pct pts)

Q4: 37.7% (+0.5 pct pts)Q3: 32.2% (no change)Q2: 27.3% (+0.5 pct pts)Q1: 20.2% (+0.3 pct pts)

Polar 4 measureEthnicity

Slowest growth in Q1 (least advantaged)entry rate since 2012.

Gap between advantaged and disadvantaged (Q5:Q1)

2.3 : 1

Combining factors: inequality is still increasing(MCDS MEM)

12 : 1

4.1 : 1ratio of advantaged : disadvantaged

at higher tariff

A reduction from 12.2 : 1 in 2017


Combining equality factors, the gap between the most and least advantaged English 18 year olds has increased this year.

Try to ensure that your aspiration raising activities and interactions will work for and offer something to excite everyone and not turn anyone off the idea of HE.

Provide contextual information in applications to ensure that universities and colleges really understand both the level of achievement and possible support needs of individual students.

So what?


Consider things like the language, examples, images etc. that you and third party agents use, with regard to your specific student profiles.

TEF

Provisional/no award smaller groups, not plotted

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ch

ange

in n

um

ber

pla

ced

vs.

20

17


Long-term growth at gold HEPs continues More pronounced for 18 year olds

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ch

ange

in n

um

ber

pla

ced

vs.

20

17

Gold: 73.4k (+3.9%)Silver: 95.0k (-3.5%)Bronze: 23.1k (-8.2%)

Gold: 113.9k (+1.2%)Bronze: 55.2k (-2.4%)Silver: 188.1k (-2.7%)

Try to ensure that your students really understand what TEF is and what it does and doesn’t actually mean.

So what?


Make your students aware of how important thorough and effective research is to maximising their chances of success (both through well-informed choices and a strong, focussed application).

Unconditional offers

• Unconditional offers remain an area of widespread debate across the sector.

• Overall, number of offers made to students has increased since 2012.

• Unconditional offers come in many forms.

• Referenced in the OfS strategic guidance letter.

• Initial UCAS analysis in July, with follow up in the End of Cycle report.


Record number of unconditional offers in 2018

68k unconditional offers in 2018, to

18 year olds from England, NI, and Wales (ENW).

32% increase on last year.

7.1% of all offers made in 2018 to ENW 18 year olds were unconditional.

7.4% for English providers.


58.5k of ENW 18 year old applicants

received at least one unconditional offer in 2018.

29% increase on 2017.

87.5k applicants (34.4%) received at

least one offer with an unconditional component in 2018 (+31 % vs. 2017).In 2013, the number was 2.6k.

Some evidence that conditional unconditional offers do influence the decisions of a substantial number of applicants

Applicants with conditional unconditional offers tend to go on to study at the providers that made them.


Being placed via an unconditional offer is associated with an increased probability of missing grades

Even after controlling for other factors, applicants accepted via an unconditional offer were 7% more likely to miss their predicted A levels by two or more grades.


The grade profiles of students receiving these kinds of offers is changing.


Unconditional offers

Students with top grades are now among the least likely to receive them.

In 2017, one in five predicted ABB – BBC received an unconditional offer.

In 2014-2015 studentspredicted AAA were most likely; last year those predicted BBB.

32% of applicants with a UF offer miss their grades by more than three points…

Compared to 20% of those with a CF offer.

We will provide improved information and advice to support students making their decisions.

UCAS will continue to monitor and report on what is happening in the sector.

Good practice going forward


It is important that you build support/contact points into your centres’ own timetables before your students reply to their offers.

UCAS worked with nine providers to create good practice resources for Higher Education providers .

Single choice fee £20

Full application fee £25

2020 application

fees


Some key changes coming your way

2019

March: new adviser portal for2020 applications

Spring/Summer: improved student I&A tools

2020

New application management system


We’re on the road…showcasing our new adviser portal!

Join us to find out how managing applications is changing for the 2020 cycle, and to see a live demo of our new adviser portal.

www.ucasevents.com/adviserportalroadshows

http://www.ucasevents.com/adviserportalroadshows

Up to five choices

One personal statement

Add predicted grades

Add a reference

Adviser portal –same business

rules

Manage applications –check, approve, and submit

Deadlines – e.g. 15 October and 15 January


Real-time data on applicant status post-submission

View applicant’s ‘Education’ section while entering

predicted grades

View applicant’s personal statement while entering

reference

Ex-students linking to centre –easy to identify

Sort and filter functionalityfor student status pre and post-submission

Self-service registration and password reset

Shortlist of qualifications search and multi-upload

Revamped Applicant Status Report

Adviser portal –what’s different?


Adviser Portal - Dashboard


Application management

Sort and filter functionality for student status pre-submission


Predicted grades

View applicant’s ‘Education’ section while entering predicted grades


Reference

View applicant’s personal statement while entering the reference



New dashboard beta


Our goal is to improve our information and advice service – enabling students to broaden their horizons and understand the breadth of opportunities available to them,

then allowing them to filter down to a manageable number of options to look at in more detail.

The dashboard will provide a central hub for students to search for the right next step in their life, giving them a central hub to return to.

‘Explore’ will give students the ability to browse courses and options at a high level, based on what’s important to them, enabling them to focus on the detail of opportunities that

are most suited to them, while not missing opportunities they were unaware of.

Content on ucas.com is being improved, so it’s more accessible and consumable. Starting with our subjects guides, we are looking to provide information in a more visually

engaging and relevant way.


High-level roadmapOct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Go live(all products)

Team setup

Dashboard build started Private beta(all products)

Explore build started

Public beta(all products)

User testing and engagement

Subject guides reform started


In October 2018 we launched an automated customer service pilot on our social media channels:

• ¼ million likes on our Facebook page• Allows students to self serve• Provides immediate responses to questions 24/7• Uses UCAS FAQ to provide appropriate response• Monitored by staff• About 10% of interactions responded to in pilot period

Modernising our customer experience

Does my student need to declare their U grade?

What are teachers and advisers currently asking UCAS?

How do students input their BTEC qualification?

Question or issue with predicted grades – change,

wrong type, missing etc

GDPR issues and concerns

Guidance using the UCAS search tool

Managing colleagues account permissions

Finding and accepting link requests from students

Help logging their students in


New predicted grades resourceshttps://www.ucas.com/advisers/managing-applications/predicted-grades-what-you-need-know


https://www.ucas.com/advisers/managing-applications/predicted-grades-what-you-need-know


Changes to an applicant’s qualifications

If a student changes their qualifications after submitting their UCAS form, they can now update their details online.

Or advisers can update changes to students’ exam details online .

https://www.ucas.com/content/request-amend-qualifications-listed-your-application

https://www.ucas.com/advisers/managing-applications/exam-results-process

(6535 phone queries; 2737 social media contacts)

Reference support (1244 enquiries)

Pay & send (420 enquiries)

Completing the application (376 enquiries)

Logging in to Apply (365 enquiries)

Amending details (269 enquiries)

Qualifications (258 enquiries)

Changes to choices (221 enquiries)

What were the top questions on 15 January?


58k applicationssubmitted in thefinal 24 hours.

Lots of registeredcentres only have

one Coordinator…who was not alwaysavailable on the day!

Student mental health and wellbeing

We are working closely with Student Minds to support students with concerns or queries about mental health and wellbeing.

We are also gathering feedback from advisers and providers in the satisfaction surveys about:

• what additional services could be provided to support student mental health and wellbeing;

• Whether UCAS should review how we offer applicants the chance to declare a mental health condition.

If you would like to

provide feedback,

please let us know.



Resources supporting transition to universityhttp://www.studentminds.org.uk/uploads/3/7/8/4/3784584/180531_kbyg_interactive.pdf

http://www.studentminds.org.uk/uploads/3/7/8/4/3784584/180531_kbyg_interactive.pdf


Questions

Thank you


Alan JonesProfessional Development Executive

ucas update & news - university of exeter · security marking: public 2018 statistics 695,565...

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