ubs nordic financials sept 2009

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1 Annika Falkengren President and CEO UBS Nordic Financial Services Conference Stockholm 10 September 2009

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UBS Nordic Financial Services Conference Stockholm. 10 September 2009.

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Page 1: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

1

Annika FalkengrenPresident and CEO

UBS Nordic Financial Services

ConferenceStockholm

10 September2009

Page 2: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

2

How we got here: SEB’s strategy 2006Multi-disciplined focused strategic direction to stay ahead of the curve

The starting point: SEB has a strong competitive position A long-term relationship bank

Where we are going: thoughts in post-crisis financial landscapeWhile regulatory clouds remain, structural long-term trends are still valid

Page 3: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

3

#1 Cash management globally#1 Scandinavian currencies globally#1Nordic stock broker#1Nordic and Baltic investment bank#1 Custody Nordics and Baltics#2 Nordic asset management#1 SME offering Sweden

Strong customer base Product excellence

700

400,000

5 million

1,800

Large companies

Financial institutions

SMEs

Private individuals

3

SEB – A relationship bank

Page 4: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

44

12-month rolling earnings generation excluding one-off effects

01020304050

Q1 -05

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-06

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 -07

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 -08

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 -09

Q2

Profit before credit losses and goodwill

Operating income

Operating profit

SEK bn

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000

Q1-05

Q2Q3Q4Q1-06

Q2Q3Q4Q1-07

Q2Q3Q4Q1-08

Q2Q3Q4Q1-09

Q2

Net interest income Non-interest income *

Diversified income generationSEK m

Resilient income generation

+21%*H1 2009

vs. H1 2008

*Income adjusted for capital gains

Page 5: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

5

Long-term financial stability

Liquidity profile

Strong capital position

Reserve ratio

12 monthsmatched funding

Tier 1 capitalratio 13.1%

72%

Page 6: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09

Specific Collective

Proactive management in CEE

Provisioning to build-up Baltic reservesSEK m

65% collective provisions

Non performing loans % of lending

0%

10%

20%

30%

Portfolio assessed, past due > 60 daysIndividually assessed

Estonia Latvia Lithuania UkraineLending 45 39 75 2(SEK bn)

Actions

Gradual tightening of credit and portfolio policies requirements since Q4 2005

Accelerated collective provisions

Substantial work-out resources

Review of all loans >€1m completed

Separate division

Full goodwill write-off

Page 7: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

7

CommercialReal Estate*

Mainly related to large real estate companies

Well diversified with 95% senior debt

Bankruptcies increasing (from a low base)

Acq. Finance

SMEsSweden

Limited exposure to Bulk and Container sub-segments

Shipping & Offshore

3%*

1%*

3%*

7%*

* Excluding Baltic exposures

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%

Dec'06

Mar'07

Jun Sep Dec Mar'08

Jun Sep Dec Mar'09

Jun

Level of Impaired Loans

Nordics

Germany

22%78%

Distribution of credit provisionsDistribution of SEK 5,953m within SEB Group

Outside CEECEE

% of total exposure

Stable asset quality outside CEE

NPL 0.6%

Page 8: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

8

How we got here: SEB’s strategy 2006Multi-disciplined focused strategic direction to stay ahead of the curve

The starting point: SEB has a strong competitive position A long-term relationship bank

Where we are going: thoughts in post-crisis financial landscapeWhile regulatory clouds remain, structural long-term trends are still valid

Page 9: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

9

Strategic direction – exploit strong franchise in an attractive region

Improve customer focus

Integrate acquired businesses

Roll-out operational excellence

Strengthen the balance sheet for worse times

SEB strategy initiated

at Capital Markets

Day in December

2006

Page 10: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

10

H1 08 H1 09Sweden Other Nordic

+33%

+79%

Income Nordic “top 50”(public companies)

Perceived quality*

-100

100

100Core

banking relation-

ships%

Large corporatesSweden

Largecorporates

Nordics

00

2008 2009

A strong large corporate franchise Strong growth in core marketsNordic target market

2006

* Relative to peer group

Page 11: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

11

Customer growth strategy cont.

115120125130135140145150

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009

Q2

Private Banking – Net salesSEK bn

0

2

4

6

Q12006

Q3 Q12007

Q3 Q12008

Q3 Q12009

048

1216

Q12006

Q3 Q12007

Q3 Q12008

Q3 Q12009

Life – Total salesSEK bn

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009

Q2

No of corporate customersThousands

Number of cards – SEB KortMillions

Grow revenues with existing customers through high interaction and increased share of wallet

Page 12: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

12

Efficiency and productivity

21,620,4

19,3

Dec 06 Jun 08 Jun 09

02468

1012

Q107

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q108

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109

Q2

CEENon-CEE

FTE developmentSEB Group, Thousands

Exploiting cost synergies from increased integration while developing continuous productivity enhancements through SEB Way

Group OperationsNo. of transaction, SEK millions

Efficiency and productivity gains offset inflation on a comparable basis

202224262830

Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09

Total cost base reportedExcluding pensions, redundancies, CEE goodwill impairment and FX effect

Rolling 12 m costs in Q2

2009 up SEK 0.3bn or 6% vs. FY

2006

Cost/transaction-6% y-o-y

Page 13: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

13

Financial strategyEstablish and maintain a strong capital and liquidity position

Core capitalSEKbn

60.7

103.2

89.3

53.1

Dec 2006 Jun 2009

Hybridcapital

"Bookequity" 7.5

13.9

8.2% 11.3%Core

capital ratio

+36.2

117.3

74.7

47.348.7

7.132.931.2

71.4

H1 08 H2 08 H1 09 Q3 09

45.9

17.5

41.8

40.2

Long-term funding (>1 year)SEKbn

>12 months matched funding

Page 14: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

14

How we got here: SEB’s strategy 2006Multi-disciplined focused strategic direction to stay ahead of the curve

The starting point: SEB has a strong competitive position A long-term relationship bank

Where we are going: thoughts in post-crisis financial landscapeWhile regulatory clouds remain, structural long-term trends are still valid

Page 15: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

15

Capital requirements? Liquidity regimes? Regulatory environment?Government ownership?

The big unknown: A new financial landscape– Still limited visibility and no level playing field

Page 16: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

16

Capturing structural growth trendsWholesale banking

Demographics

Emerging markets

Exploiting being the #1 Nordic Merchant Bank

SEB is:

Expanding the asset manage-ment and life insurance franchise

Advisory services, investment banking, new asset classes

Creating demand for:

Asset management, pension products

Local financial services, int’l support for our clients

Renewed long-term growth in the Baltic region

Page 17: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

17

+ =

Wholesale banking going forward Restricted capital leads banks to a more selective choice of relationships

Business– selected clients

Bank relationship –a closer tie

Credits– tight conditions

Page 18: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

18

Gross premium income, unit-linked insurance %, Q1 2009

14

14

9

26

28Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Denmark**

Sweden*

SEB Market share Competitors

12331

SEB RankMarket shares

* Q2 2009** Full year 2008

Rightly positioned to leverage recovery of savings markets

-30 000-20 000-10 000

010 00020 00030 00040 00050 00060 00070 000

jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 Jan-08 jan-09

SEBSHBRoburNordea

Mutual Funds Net Sales SwedenCumulative Jan 2005 – Jun 2009, including PPMSEK m

Assets under ManagementJune 30, 2009, SEK bn

1 478

1 267

743

617

595

224

Nordea

SEB

Sw edbank

Danske Bank

DnB NOR

HandelsbankenSource: Morgan Stanley

Page 19: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

19

Long-term potential in the Baltics remains31 Dec 2008

GDP/CapitaSEK thousand 343

101

Lending/GDPPer cent

Baltics Sweden

136

82

Economic sentiment may have turnedIndex

020406080

100120140

Oct-95 Oct-97 Oct-99 Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-07 Oct-09

Estonia Latvia Lithuania Euro-zone

Current account deficts have been restoredPercent of GDP

-30-25-20-15-10-505

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Estonia Lithuania Latvia

Page 20: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

20

Strong capitalisationTier 1 capital ratio (Q2 2009, %)

Opportunities in core marketsEconomic cycle

2007 20092005 2011

Nordics late into the cycle?

Baltic credit losses

The tipping point is getting closer?

9,611,212,212,613,1

11,3

Swed-bank

SEB SHB DanskeBank

Nordea DnB NOR

Page 21: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

2121

Page 22: Ubs Nordic Financials Sept 2009

2222