ubs nordic financials sept 2009
DESCRIPTION
UBS Nordic Financial Services Conference Stockholm. 10 September 2009.TRANSCRIPT
1
Annika FalkengrenPresident and CEO
UBS Nordic Financial Services
ConferenceStockholm
10 September2009
2
How we got here: SEB’s strategy 2006Multi-disciplined focused strategic direction to stay ahead of the curve
The starting point: SEB has a strong competitive position A long-term relationship bank
Where we are going: thoughts in post-crisis financial landscapeWhile regulatory clouds remain, structural long-term trends are still valid
3
#1 Cash management globally#1 Scandinavian currencies globally#1Nordic stock broker#1Nordic and Baltic investment bank#1 Custody Nordics and Baltics#2 Nordic asset management#1 SME offering Sweden
Strong customer base Product excellence
700
400,000
5 million
1,800
Large companies
Financial institutions
SMEs
Private individuals
3
SEB – A relationship bank
44
12-month rolling earnings generation excluding one-off effects
01020304050
Q1 -05
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-06
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 -07
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 -08
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 -09
Q2
Profit before credit losses and goodwill
Operating income
Operating profit
SEK bn
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
Q1-05
Q2Q3Q4Q1-06
Q2Q3Q4Q1-07
Q2Q3Q4Q1-08
Q2Q3Q4Q1-09
Q2
Net interest income Non-interest income *
Diversified income generationSEK m
Resilient income generation
+21%*H1 2009
vs. H1 2008
*Income adjusted for capital gains
5
Long-term financial stability
Liquidity profile
Strong capital position
Reserve ratio
12 monthsmatched funding
Tier 1 capitalratio 13.1%
72%
6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09
Specific Collective
Proactive management in CEE
Provisioning to build-up Baltic reservesSEK m
65% collective provisions
Non performing loans % of lending
0%
10%
20%
30%
Portfolio assessed, past due > 60 daysIndividually assessed
Estonia Latvia Lithuania UkraineLending 45 39 75 2(SEK bn)
Actions
Gradual tightening of credit and portfolio policies requirements since Q4 2005
Accelerated collective provisions
Substantial work-out resources
Review of all loans >€1m completed
Separate division
Full goodwill write-off
7
CommercialReal Estate*
Mainly related to large real estate companies
Well diversified with 95% senior debt
Bankruptcies increasing (from a low base)
Acq. Finance
SMEsSweden
Limited exposure to Bulk and Container sub-segments
Shipping & Offshore
3%*
1%*
3%*
7%*
* Excluding Baltic exposures
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
Dec'06
Mar'07
Jun Sep Dec Mar'08
Jun Sep Dec Mar'09
Jun
Level of Impaired Loans
Nordics
Germany
22%78%
Distribution of credit provisionsDistribution of SEK 5,953m within SEB Group
Outside CEECEE
% of total exposure
Stable asset quality outside CEE
NPL 0.6%
8
How we got here: SEB’s strategy 2006Multi-disciplined focused strategic direction to stay ahead of the curve
The starting point: SEB has a strong competitive position A long-term relationship bank
Where we are going: thoughts in post-crisis financial landscapeWhile regulatory clouds remain, structural long-term trends are still valid
9
Strategic direction – exploit strong franchise in an attractive region
Improve customer focus
Integrate acquired businesses
Roll-out operational excellence
Strengthen the balance sheet for worse times
SEB strategy initiated
at Capital Markets
Day in December
2006
10
H1 08 H1 09Sweden Other Nordic
+33%
+79%
Income Nordic “top 50”(public companies)
Perceived quality*
-100
100
100Core
banking relation-
ships%
Large corporatesSweden
Largecorporates
Nordics
00
2008 2009
A strong large corporate franchise Strong growth in core marketsNordic target market
2006
* Relative to peer group
11
Customer growth strategy cont.
115120125130135140145150
Q12007
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009
Q2
Private Banking – Net salesSEK bn
0
2
4
6
Q12006
Q3 Q12007
Q3 Q12008
Q3 Q12009
048
1216
Q12006
Q3 Q12007
Q3 Q12008
Q3 Q12009
Life – Total salesSEK bn
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Q12007
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12009
Q2
No of corporate customersThousands
Number of cards – SEB KortMillions
Grow revenues with existing customers through high interaction and increased share of wallet
12
Efficiency and productivity
21,620,4
19,3
Dec 06 Jun 08 Jun 09
02468
1012
Q107
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q108
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q109
Q2
CEENon-CEE
FTE developmentSEB Group, Thousands
Exploiting cost synergies from increased integration while developing continuous productivity enhancements through SEB Way
Group OperationsNo. of transaction, SEK millions
Efficiency and productivity gains offset inflation on a comparable basis
202224262830
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09
Total cost base reportedExcluding pensions, redundancies, CEE goodwill impairment and FX effect
Rolling 12 m costs in Q2
2009 up SEK 0.3bn or 6% vs. FY
2006
Cost/transaction-6% y-o-y
13
Financial strategyEstablish and maintain a strong capital and liquidity position
Core capitalSEKbn
60.7
103.2
89.3
53.1
Dec 2006 Jun 2009
Hybridcapital
"Bookequity" 7.5
13.9
8.2% 11.3%Core
capital ratio
+36.2
117.3
74.7
47.348.7
7.132.931.2
71.4
H1 08 H2 08 H1 09 Q3 09
45.9
17.5
41.8
40.2
Long-term funding (>1 year)SEKbn
>12 months matched funding
14
How we got here: SEB’s strategy 2006Multi-disciplined focused strategic direction to stay ahead of the curve
The starting point: SEB has a strong competitive position A long-term relationship bank
Where we are going: thoughts in post-crisis financial landscapeWhile regulatory clouds remain, structural long-term trends are still valid
15
Capital requirements? Liquidity regimes? Regulatory environment?Government ownership?
The big unknown: A new financial landscape– Still limited visibility and no level playing field
16
Capturing structural growth trendsWholesale banking
Demographics
Emerging markets
Exploiting being the #1 Nordic Merchant Bank
SEB is:
Expanding the asset manage-ment and life insurance franchise
Advisory services, investment banking, new asset classes
Creating demand for:
Asset management, pension products
Local financial services, int’l support for our clients
Renewed long-term growth in the Baltic region
17
+ =
Wholesale banking going forward Restricted capital leads banks to a more selective choice of relationships
Business– selected clients
Bank relationship –a closer tie
Credits– tight conditions
18
Gross premium income, unit-linked insurance %, Q1 2009
14
14
9
26
28Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Denmark**
Sweden*
SEB Market share Competitors
12331
SEB RankMarket shares
* Q2 2009** Full year 2008
Rightly positioned to leverage recovery of savings markets
-30 000-20 000-10 000
010 00020 00030 00040 00050 00060 00070 000
jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 Jan-08 jan-09
SEBSHBRoburNordea
Mutual Funds Net Sales SwedenCumulative Jan 2005 – Jun 2009, including PPMSEK m
Assets under ManagementJune 30, 2009, SEK bn
1 478
1 267
743
617
595
224
Nordea
SEB
Sw edbank
Danske Bank
DnB NOR
HandelsbankenSource: Morgan Stanley
19
Long-term potential in the Baltics remains31 Dec 2008
GDP/CapitaSEK thousand 343
101
Lending/GDPPer cent
Baltics Sweden
136
82
Economic sentiment may have turnedIndex
020406080
100120140
Oct-95 Oct-97 Oct-99 Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-07 Oct-09
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Euro-zone
Current account deficts have been restoredPercent of GDP
-30-25-20-15-10-505
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Estonia Lithuania Latvia
20
Strong capitalisationTier 1 capital ratio (Q2 2009, %)
Opportunities in core marketsEconomic cycle
2007 20092005 2011
Nordics late into the cycle?
Baltic credit losses
The tipping point is getting closer?
9,611,212,212,613,1
11,3
Swed-bank
SEB SHB DanskeBank
Nordea DnB NOR
2121
2222