ubs jul 14 swiss economy

8/9/2019 UBS JUL 14 Swiss Economy

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Swiss Economy

Status: July 14, 2010


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11

Contents

Section 1 Global Economy 2

Section 2 Swiss Economy 9

Section 3 Interest Rates 21

Section 4 Exchange Rates 31


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SECTION 1

Global Economy


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3

International economic growth

% change of real GDP over previous year

US Eurozone SwitzerlandSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

y/y-change

inp

ercent

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-10

1

2

3

4

5

6


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4

Eurozone SwitzerlandSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

y/y-change

inp

ercent

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Economic growth in Switzerland and in the Eurozone


Forecasts


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5

Growth Differential Switzerland - Eurozone

In percentage points

Forecast


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7

International unemployment rates

Unemployment rate in %

US Eurozone SwitzerlandSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Per

cent

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11


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8

Business climate

Manufacturing sector

US (ISM) Eurozone (European Commission) Switzerland (KOF)Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Stand

ardized

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3


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9

Consumer sentiment

Standardized

US (Conference Board)

Eurozone (European Commission)

Switzerland (seco)

Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Stan

dardized

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


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SECTION 2

Swiss Economy


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11

Real GDP growthSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

y/y-change

inp

ercent

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

Swiss economic growth since 1960


Forecasts


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12

Switzerland: Economic growth

Quarterly growth contributions, expenditure approach

Inventories

Net exports

Fixed Investment

Government consumption

Private consumption

Real GDP, in % q/qSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percen

tage

Points

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3


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Switzerland: Economic growth

Annual growth contributions, expenditure approach

Inventories

Net exports

Fixed Investment

Government consumption

Private consumption

Real GDP, in % y/ySource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Percen

tage

Points

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


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14

Switzerland: GDP and KOF economic barometer

% change over previous year

Real GDP growth, interpolated KOF economic barometerSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

y/y-change

inp

ercent

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5


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15

Switzerland: Unemployment rate

Unemployment rate Unemployment rate, seasonally adjustedSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Percent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


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16

Switzerland: Private consumption

% change of real private consumption and consumer sentiment

Real private consumption Consumer sentimentSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

In

dex

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

y/y-change

inp

ercent

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


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Switzerland: UBS Consumption IndicatorThe UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated from five sub-indicators: new car sales, business activity in

the retail sector, the number of domestic hotel overnight stays by Swiss nationals, the consumersentiment index, and credit card transactions via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland.

Real private consumption, interpolated

UBS consumption indicatorSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Index

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

y/y-chan

ge

inp

ercent

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


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18

Switzerland: Private consumption

% change of real private consumption and retail sales

Private consumption, interpolated

Retail Sales, real, 12-month-moving average Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

y/y-chan

ge

inp

ercent

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

y/y-chan

ge

inp

ercent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


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19

Switzerland: Capital spending

Capital spending and capacity utilization

P

ercent

y/y-chan

ge

inp

ercent


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20

Switzerland: Inflation

CPI total Domestic inflation Imported inflationSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

y/y-chang

e

inp

ercent

-7.5

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

Headline consumer price inflation (CPI) and inflation by origin


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21

Switzerland: Long-term sector positioning

UBS outlook Q1/2010: Sectoral trends

Source: UBS Wealth Management Research


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SECTION 3

Interest Rates


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23

International government bond yields

Yield on 10Y government bonds in USD, EUR, and CHF

USA Eurozone Switzerland Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pe

rcent

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5


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24

International money market rates

3M Libor in USD, EUR, and CHF

USA Eurozone Switzerland Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pe

rcent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


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25

Target range of Swiss monetary policy

Target range Target rate 3M LiborSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pe

rcent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

CHF 3M Libor and target range by the Swiss National Bank (SNB)


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Switzerland: Interest rates

3M Libor 6M Libor 12M Libor Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pe

rcent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


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27


3M Libor Confederation bond yield 10YSource: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pe

rcent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

CHF 3M Libor and yield on 10Y Swiss confederation bonds


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2Y 5Y 10Y Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pe

rcent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Yield on Swiss confederation bonds


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Switzerland: Capital market yields

Swap 2Y Swap 3Y Swap 5Y Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pe

rcent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

S i l d C i l k i ld


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Swap 2Y Swap 3Y Swap 5Y Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS WMR

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Pe

rcent

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Switzerland: Capital market yields

Forecasts


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SECTION 4

Exchange Rates

EURCHF d P h i P P it (PPP)


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EURCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

EURCHF EURCHF PPP Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

USDCHF d P h i P P it (PPP)


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USDCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

USDCHF USDCHF PPP Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

GBPCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)


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GBPCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

GBPCHF GBPCHF PPP Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.02.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

JPYCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)


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JPYCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

JPYCHF JPYCHF PPP Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

SEKCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)


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SEKCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

SEKCHF SEKCHF PPPSource: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0.125

0.150

0.175

0.200

0.225

0.250

0.275

NOKCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)


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NOKCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

NOKCHF NOKCHF PPPSource: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.20

0.21

0.22

0.23

0.24

AUDCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)


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AUDCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

AUDCHF AUDCHF PPPSource: Thomson Reuters, UBS WMR

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

Economic Research Switzerland


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4040

UBS AGWealth Management ResearchP.O. BoxCH-8098 Zurich

Tel. 044-234 44 13Fax 044-234 25 99E-Mail: [email protected]: http://www.ubs.com/wmr-swiss-research

Economic Research Switzerland


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ubs jul 14 swiss economy

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