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September 9, 2003 Tuesday Without a MapBUSH ADMINISTRATION officials seem to hope that they can avoid accepting thecollapse of the latest Israeli-Palestinian peace process simply by declaring itstill alive. "The road map is still there," Secretary of State Colin L. Powellinsisted Sunday. "What are the alternatives?" Sadly, those alternatives are veryreal -- and hard-liners on both sides are rushing to demonstrate them.Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat smugly presides over the selection of a newprime minister after forcing the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas, the leader ofPalestinian efforts to end violence and renew negotiations with Israel; Mr.Arafat believes his coup will compel Israel and the United States to deal withhim once again. Israel, meanwhile, launches daily assassination operationsagainst leaders of the extremist group Hamas; if the inevitable retaliatorysuicide bombers succeed, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will again demand that theBush administration agree to Israel's expulsion of Mr. Arafat, a step that couldbring about the final collapse of the Palestinian Authority. After severalmonths of relative calm, Israelis and Palestinians now face the prospect ofanother thunderous eruption of violence, one that will further complicate theBush administration's effort to stabilize Iraq and build an internationalcoalition in the Middle East.Could the administration have avoided this reverse? Perhaps not. Thoughsupported by President Bush in recent months, the "road map" may have beendoomed from the beginning by the problem of Mr. Arafat. It is obvious that hewill never renounce violence against Israel or agree to a final peace settlementwith a Jewish state. And pro-peace Palestinian leaders such as Mr. Abbas are notyet strong enough to sideline him. Much of this summer's diplomacy was aimed atbolstering the Palestinian moderates -- but little was done. Rather than embracethe strategy, Mr. Sharon took only small steps, just enough to avoid troublewith Mr. Bush; once again Mr. Sharon failed to take any significant actionagainst Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza.Mr. Abbas did little to encourage Israeli confidence in him. Though heforthrightly denounced terrorism, he shrank from the job of dismantling theterrorist cells of Hamas and other extremist groups. Instead, he lapsed into thefamiliar Palestinian strategy of demanding that Washington pressure Israel. Mr.Bush soon found himself thrust into the role of broker between Mr. Sharon andMr. Abbas -- and he failed to budge either side. A U.S. monitoring teamdiligently compiled a weekly report on each side's noncompliance with the roadmap -- but the White House timidly declined to publicize it.The administration seeks to salvage the situation by hinting that progress isstill possible if the next Palestinian prime minister shares Mr. Abbas's agendaand succeeds in gaining control over Mr. Arafat's multiple security forces. Theunlikelihood of this was underscored by the unrealistic conditions Mr. Arafat'slatest choice sought to put on U.S. diplomacy yesterday. Progress could only bemade if Mr. Arafat were induced by concerted international pressure to yield thepower he just consolidated, and if Mr. Sharon were persuaded to suspend theall-out war against Hamas he just launched. If this is not possible, the Bushadministration at least ought to draw a lesson from the summer's events: Asuccessful peace process will require bolder and more forceful action than anyof the parties -- including Mr. Bush -- have so far been willing to take. Copyright 2003