Two Years after Maidan: Ukrainians Committed to

Democracy, Disappointed with Unmet Aspirations

Key Findings from a September 2015 IFES Survey in Ukraine

• 1,558 respondents representing the voting-age population in Ukraine excluding/outside Donbas and Crimea (18 years+).

Sample size:

• ±2.49% within a 95% confidence interval for data outside/excluding Donbas and Crimea.

Margin of error:

• All the administrative divisions of Ukraine. Observations were allocated proportionally based on population statistics from 2014.

Sample area coverage:

• September 12 – 26, 2015Fieldwork dates:

• IFES contracted with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) to conduct fieldwork and data processing for the survey.

Survey firm:

• The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) provided funding for this survey.

Funding:

• Data was weighted by age, region and gender to bring the realized sample in line with target population parameters in order to be representative of the adult (18+) population of Ukraine outside Crimea and Donbas.

Weights:

Methodological Details

I. Views on the Current Situation

Direction in which Ukraine is Headed

20%20%

33%34%

14%18%

11%

16%

8%8%

16%

26%

51%

56%

61%

45%42%

59%60%

65%

50%

71%74%

44%

21%

6%

Sep-15Jun-15Dec-14Sep-14Oct-13Sep-12Jul-11Sep-10Nov-09Oct-08Sep-07Nov-05Feb-05

Right Direction Wrong Direction

“Considering the overall situation in the country, do you think Ukraine is currently headed in the right direction or wrong direction?”

Biggest Issues Facing Ukraine (Trend)

70%

38%

28%25% 24%

21%

11%9%

83%

58%

48%

33%

25%

30%

17%

11%

70%

56%53%

42%

35%

30%

19%14%

Donbas conflict High prices /inflation

Corruption Poverty Unemployment Generaleconomicproblems

Problems withRussia

Healthcare

September 2014 (n=1,613) June 2015 (n=1,560) September 2015 (n=1,558)

“What are the most serious issues that Ukraine as a country faces today?”

Experience with Corruption

“Have you experienced any of the following over the last twelve months?”

28%

7% 7%

5%7%

5%2%

32%

9% 8% 8%6%

5% 4%

Pay a bribein order to

be seen in ahospital or

clinic

Pay anymoney

above whatis requiredby law toprocess adocument

Pay a bribeat school

Been askedto pay abribe at

work

Pay a bribeto avoid a

trafficcitation

Been askedby a policeofficer to

pay a bribe

Pay a bribeto the courts

April 2014 September 2015

37%40%

April 2014 September2015

Total percent having experienced at least one

action over past 12 months

II. Support for Democracy

Preference for Democratic System

49%58%

65%

38%37%34%

21%12%

13%

20%18%25%

16%17%11%

28%31%23%

15%13%11%14%14%18%

September 2015June 2015September 2014October 2013July 2011September 2010

DK/NRTo me, it does not matter what form of government we haveIn certain situations, a non-democratic government can be preferableDemocracy is preferable to any other form of government

“Please tell me which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion?”

39%

46%

24%

41%

52%

33%

41%

48%

47%

39%

45%

30%

42%

23%

21%

15%

27%

21%

27%

24%

17%

18%

24%

19%

34%

21%

38%

34%

62%

32%

27%

41%

35%

36%

35%

37%

36%

36%

37%

West

East (excluding / outside Donbas)

South

Central

North and Kyiv

60+

45-59

30-44

18-29

Female

Male

Oct. 2013

Sept. 2015

Democratic rights DK/NR Economic development

Attitudes on Importance of Democracy

“Please tell me with which you most agree: ‘It should be a priority for Ukraine to pursue economic development, even if it means foregoing some democratic rights’ or ‘Ukraine’s priority should be to maintain democratic rights for its citizens, even if this means the economy develops slowly’

16%

13%

29%

25%

19%

24%

28%

27%

8%

12%

Democracy as a system is not good at maintaining orderin the country

It is more important that political leaders maintain orderthan protect democratic rights of citizens

Strongly agree Somewhat agree DK/NR Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

Democracy and Order

“Please tell me do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statements:”

Democracy Profile

33%41%

29%24%

38% 35%

October 2013 September 2015

Strong Attachment to Democracy Mixed/Disengaged Weak Attachment to Democracy

Extent of Democracy in Ukraine

Ukraine excluding/outside Donbas (n=1,558)

Full democracy 2%

Democracy, but with minor problems 19%

Democracy, but with major problems 43%

Not a democracy at all 23%

DK/NR 13%

“How much of a democracy is Ukraine today?”

North and Kyiv

East (excluding/outside

Donbas)

Center

South

West1%

18%

49%

20%

13%

3%

27%

43%

18%

10%

3%

14%

42%24%

17%

2%

23%

44%

23%

8%

4%

15%

34%30%

18%

III. Foreign Policy Orientation

Ukraine’s Foreign Policy Orientation

“Do you think Ukraine would be better off if it had closer political and economic relations with Europe or Russia?”

33%43%

52%59%

49%

26%17%

19%

16%

19%

29% 25%

14% 8%

8%

5%5%

9%9%

14%

7%11%

6% 9% 10%

September 2012 October 2013 April 2014 September 2014 September 2015

Europe Both Russia Neither DK/NR

Foreign Policy Orientation, Regional Profile

51%

13%8%

20%

8%

Center

North and Kyiv

South

West

“Do you think Ukraine would be better off if it had closer political and economic relations with Europe or Russia?”

48%

9%4%

17%

23%

30%

24%14%

25%

7%

71%

13%

1%

8% 6%

EuropeBothRussiaNeitherDK/NR

East (excluding/outside

Donbas)

29%

34%

16%

10%12%

Attitudes towards Foreign Governmentsand Institutions

“Please tell me whether you have positive or negative views of the leadership of these countries or entities:”

67%

59%53%

38%

20%

70%

49%52% 50%

13%

64%59%

50%45%

12%

European Union Germany United States NATO Russia

Percent with either ‘very positive’ or ‘somewhat positive’ impressions

April 2014 September 2014 September 2015

IV. Views on Maidan

Most Important Aspirations for Maidan

“Of these issues, which do you think was the most important reason for the 2nd Maidantaking place? Second most important? Third most important?”

20%

34%

9% 12% 8% 4% 3% 3%

24%

12%

14% 10%12%

11%6% 3%

16% 8%

21% 17%12%

6%

6%3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Reduction ofcorruption in

Ukraine

Demand forgreater

integration ofUkraine with

Europe

Limit theinfluence ofoligarchs on

Ukraine'spolitical process

Having a countrywith liberal

values where allpeople are

equallyprotected

Reforms of thejudiciary and law

enforcementagencies

More democracyin Ukraine

ProtectingUkriane's

national heritageand institutions

Ensuring properbalance in thepowers of thepresident and

parliament

Most important Second most important Third most important

Extent of Progress on Important Issues since Maidan

“For each of the issues I mention, please tell me how much improvement there has been since the 2nd Maidan.”

1%

1%

2%

1%

5%

4%

5%

6%

7%

9%

12%

14%

20%

8%

9%

8%

5%

23%

10%

10%

11%

13%

17%

25%

21%

25%

26%

30%

30%

74%

69%

61%

67%

43%

50%

45%

35%

Limiting the influence of oligarchs on Ukraine's politicalprocess

Eqaulity of all Ukrainians

Reform of the judiciary and law enforcement agencies

The fight against corruption

Proper balance of powers between the president andparliament

Democracy in Ukraine

Ukraine's economic and political integration with Europe

Protection of Ukraine's national culture

Significant improvement Some improvement DK/NR Not much improvement None at all

V. Views on Leaders and Institutions

Confidence in Political Leaders (excluding/outside Crimea and Donbas)

5%

4%

5%

3%

3%

4%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

0%

1%

27%

21%

20%

20%

19%

18%

18%

17%

14%

15%

14%

12%

6%

4%

5%

13%

7%

11%

17%

8%

21%

5%

27%

11%

11%

33%

37%

16%

30%

29%

29%

30%

27%

32%

29%

32%

28%

34%

32%

26%

26%

26%

32%

32%

39%

36%

33%

39%

29%

43%

29%

40%

42%

27%

31%

54%

Petro Poroshenko

Vitali Klitschko

Yulia Tymoshenko

Yuriy Lutsenko

Andriy Parubiy

Oleh Lyashko

Natalie Yaresko

Arseniy Yatsenyuk

Stepan Poltorak

Arsen Avakov

Oleksandr Turchinov

Vasyl Hrytsak

Borys Logkin

Serhiy Liovochkin

Great deal Fair amount DK/NR Not very much None at all

“For each, please tell me how much confidence you have in them:” (n=1,558)

Confidence in Political Leaders (trend) (excluding/outside Crimea and Donbas)

“For each, please tell me how much confidence you have in them:”

n/a

45

%

27

%

n/a

29

%

69

%

43

%

17

%

45

%

60

%

59

%

30

%

16

%

27

%

56

%

39

%

26

%

25

%

25

%

24

%

32

%

26

%

25

%

22

%

20

%

PETRO POROSHENKO VITALI KLITSCHKO YULIA TYMOSHENKO OLEH LYASHKO ARSENIY YATSENYUK

October 2013 September 2014 December 2014 June 2015 September 2015

Percent Expressing ‘Great Deal’ or ‘Fair Amount’ of Confidence

Confidence in Political Institutions

27%

9%

13%

16%

11%

10%

10%

5%

3%

5%

3%

1%

1%

1%

1%

47%

54%

39%

36%

36%

37%

32%

31%

29%

25%

24%

21%

18%

18%

6%

8%

7%

31%

20%

12%

12%

27%

25%

20%

31%

39%

6%

5%

4%

12%

13%

21%

11%

19%

26%

26%

20%

24%

34%

25%

22%

41%

36%

40%

29%

6%

10%

6%

10%

16%

16%

11%

14%

14%

14%

11%

31%

40%

39%

53%

Ukrainian Military

Media Based in Ukraine

Newly created Ukrainian police

Pro-Ukrainian volunteer battalions

Mayor of Your City

Your City / Village Council

The Maidan Movement

Western Media

Central Election Commission

Your Raion Administrator

Your Oblast Governor

Ukrainian militia

Cabinet of Ministers

Verkhovna Rada

Russian Media

Great deal Fair amount DK/NR Not very much None at all

“For each, please tell me how much confidence you have in them:” (n=1,558)

Leadership and Maidan Aspirations

“Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements:”

5%

13%

9%

31%

23%

21%

29%

41%

21%

29%

15%

15%

30%

21%

26%

9%

21%

28%

21%

3%

Although the going has been slow, our currentpolitical leaders will ensure that needed reforms are

introduced

It is inevitable that 3rd Maidan will take place tobring in fresh political leadership to bring needed

change to Ukraine

Our current political leaders understand the reformsthat are needed to address the aspirations of the

2nd Maidan

The only way the objectives of the Maidan can beachieved is through a new generation of leaders not

tied to the status quo

Strongly agree Somewhat agree DK/NR Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree

VI. Local Elections

Likelihood to Vote in Local Elections

“How likely are you to vote in the October 25 local elections?”

48%

38%

27%

52%

37%

45%

45%

38%

37%

42%

41%

41%

30%

32%

33%

24%

29%

28%

29%

29%

34%

30%

29%

30%

5%

6%

5%

4%

15%

8%

5%

9%

7%

8%

7%

7%

6%

8%

6%

6%

9%

6%

8%

7%

9%

6%

8%

7%

6%

11%

18%

7%

6%

8%

7%

10%

10%

8%

9%

9%

West

East

South

Center

North and Kyiv

60+

45-59

30-44

18-29

Female

Male

Total

Very likely Somewhat likely DK/NR Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Will not vote

Party Preference (by those Very likely to vote)

“If the parliamentary elections were held today, which party would you vote for?” (n=643)

Petro Poroshenko's

Block - Solidarnist - UDAR, 13%

Batkyvshyna, 11%

Samopomych, 8%

Radical Party, 6%

Opposition Bloc, 4%

Other parties, 14%

Have not decided, 36%

Will not vote, 1%Refused, 4%

Two Years after Maidan: Ukrainians Committed to

Democracy, Disappointed with Unmet Aspirations

Key Findings from a September 2015 IFES Survey in Ukraine