two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · two approaches to qualitative...
TRANSCRIPT
Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade
R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander
SDSD
NATO
(SF )
(SSM)
(Hommer : )
Wolstenholme & Coyle( ), Coyle ( , a; b; ; ), Wolsternholme ( )
ithink Powersim
Coyle( )
Coyle
(Losses) (Returnees)
A,B,C
X,Y,Z
X
Meadows et al.
Dn EnDs Es D
E
Ds Es
+- +/-
+-
(SSM)SSM
Checkland( ), Checkland & Scholes( ), Wilson( ) SSMSSM
SSM
SSM
DLO
GDP %
. SAS: Special Air Service US Ranger
.
.
.
.
. negative feedback loop goal-seeking loop balancing loop
goal-seeking loop
. COSMIC
Coyle( ) Wolstenholme ( ).
.
. R Bell
Chekland, P. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice. Chickester, John Wiley & Sons, . Chekland, P. and J. Scholes. Soft Systems Methodology in Action. Chickester: John Wiley & Sons. . Wilson, B. Systems: Concepts: Concepts, Methodologies and Applications. Chickester: John Wiley &
Sons. .Coyle, R. G. Who rules the waves - a case study in system description. Journal of the Operational ResearchSociety: - . .
a. East and West and North and South - a preliminary model. FUTURES : - .b. A system approach to the management of a hospital for short-term patients. Socio-economic
Planning Sciences : - .. A system description of counter-insurgency warfare. Policy Sciences : - .. System Dynamics Modelling: a Practical Approach. London: Chapman and Hall.
Hommer, J. A system dynamics model of national cocaine prevalence. System Dynamic Review : -. .
Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W. W. Behrens. The Limits of Growth. New York:
Universe Books. .Wolstenholme, E. F. System Enquiry: a System Dynamics Approach. Chickester: John Wiley & Sons. . Wolstenholme, E. F., and R. G. Coyle. Development of system dynamics as a rigorous procedure for system
description. Journal of the Operational Research Society : - . .
.
.
. SSM SD SDJ
. Two approaches to qualitative modeling of a nation's drugs trade, System Dynamics Review Volume Number Fall p -p