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Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

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Page 1: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade

R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander

SDSD

Page 2: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

NATO

(SF )

(SSM)

(Hommer : )

Wolstenholme & Coyle( ), Coyle ( , a; b; ; ), Wolsternholme ( )

Page 3: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

ithink Powersim

Coyle( )

Page 4: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

Coyle

Page 5: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

(Losses) (Returnees)

A,B,C

Page 6: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD
Page 7: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

X,Y,Z

X

Meadows et al.

Dn EnDs Es D

E

Ds Es

+- +/-

+-

Page 8: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD
Page 9: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

(SSM)SSM

Checkland( ), Checkland & Scholes( ), Wilson( ) SSMSSM

SSM

SSM

Page 10: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD
Page 11: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

DLO

GDP %

Page 12: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

. SAS: Special Air Service US Ranger

.

.

.

.

. negative feedback loop goal-seeking loop balancing loop

Page 13: Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's ... · Two approaches to qualitative modelling of a nation's drugs trade R.G. Coyle and M.D.W. Alexander SD SD

goal-seeking loop

. COSMIC

Coyle( ) Wolstenholme ( ).

.

. R Bell

Chekland, P. Systems Thinking, Systems Practice. Chickester, John Wiley & Sons, . Chekland, P. and J. Scholes. Soft Systems Methodology in Action. Chickester: John Wiley & Sons. . Wilson, B. Systems: Concepts: Concepts, Methodologies and Applications. Chickester: John Wiley &

Sons. .Coyle, R. G. Who rules the waves - a case study in system description. Journal of the Operational ResearchSociety: - . .

a. East and West and North and South - a preliminary model. FUTURES : - .b. A system approach to the management of a hospital for short-term patients. Socio-economic

Planning Sciences : - .. A system description of counter-insurgency warfare. Policy Sciences : - .. System Dynamics Modelling: a Practical Approach. London: Chapman and Hall.

Hommer, J. A system dynamics model of national cocaine prevalence. System Dynamic Review : -. .

Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W. W. Behrens. The Limits of Growth. New York:

Universe Books. .Wolstenholme, E. F. System Enquiry: a System Dynamics Approach. Chickester: John Wiley & Sons. . Wolstenholme, E. F., and R. G. Coyle. Development of system dynamics as a rigorous procedure for system

description. Journal of the Operational Research Society : - . .

.

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.

. SSM SD SDJ

. Two approaches to qualitative modeling of a nation's drugs trade, System Dynamics Review Volume Number Fall p -p