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Page 1: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Dedicated to Corporate Renewal

TURNAROUND MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION

©2012 Turnaround Management Association

Page 2: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

CONFERENCE OVERVIEW

Page 3: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Chicago/Midwest Upper Midwest Missouri Detroit Ohio

PARTICIPATING CHAPTERS

Page 4: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

2007 Marriott ~ Oak Brook Hills, Illinois 2008 Marriott ~ Oak Brook Hills, Illinois 2009 Marriott ~ Lincolnshire, Illinois 2010 Greektown Casino ~ Detroit, Michigan 2011 Radisson ~ Minneapolis, Minnesota 2012 Hyatt ~ Chicago, Illinois

WHERE WE’VE BEEN

Page 5: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

2007 1st Annual MidAmerica Conference 2008 Winning in Turbulent Times 2009 Riding Out the Storm 2010 Betting on a Recovery 2011 Finding Certainty in Uncertain Times 2012 Creating Opportunities in a Slow Growth Period

WHAT WE’VE TALKED ABOUT

Page 6: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

WHERE DO WE STAND?

Page 7: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

WHERE DO WE STAND ONE YEAR LATER?

August 1, 2011 August 1, 2012 ChangeDow Jones Industrial Average 12,132.49 12,971.06 6.9%NASDAQ Financial 100 2,082.35 2,099.48 0.8%3-month LIBOR 0.26% 0.44% 69.2%10-year Treasury 2.77% 1.56% (43.7%)Consumer Confidence Index 59.5 65.4 9.9%Home Price Index 142.97 142.21 (0.5%)Oil Price ($ per barrel) 94.98 88.99 (6.3%)Inflation (CPI) 3.80% 1.41% (62.9%)

Page 8: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

ANY TRENDS WITHIN THE PAST MONTH?

August 1, 2012 September 7, 2012 ChangeDow Jones Industrial Average 12,971.06 13,306.64 2.6%NASDAQ Financial 100 2,099.48 2,233.47 6.4%3-month LIBOR 0.44% 0.41% (6.8%)10-year Treasury 1.56% 1.67% 7.1%Consumer Confidence Index 65.40 60.60 (7.3%)Oil Price ($ per barrel) 88.99 96.40 8.3%

Page 9: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

QUARTERLY DOMESTIC M&A ACTIVITY

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Q42009

Q12010

Q22010

Q32010

Q42010

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Transaction Value ($ bil) Number of Transactions

Source: Thomson Financial

Page 10: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

ANNUAL BUSINESS CHAPTER 11 FILINGS BY CIRCUIT

Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Court, reflects business chapter 11 filings for twelve month period ending June 30th

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122nd Circuit 3rd Circuit 6th Circuit 7th Circuit 8th Circuit

Page 11: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

BANKRUPTCY SALES HAVE SLOWED

64

81 78 83

114

166

185

162 163

147

178

109

129

159

128 123

99 113

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Number of Transactions (count)

Source: S&P CapitalIQ

Page 12: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

PAYMENT DEFAULTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS

1.2% 1.3% 1.6%

4.1%

5.1%

9.8%

12.8%

4.7%

1.2%

3.4%

0.8% 0.5%

4.7%

10.7%

1.1% 1.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the High-Yield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012

Page 13: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

U.S. BANK FAILURES HAVE SLOWED

Year No. of Failed Banks

Total Assets of Failed Banks

Total Deposits of Failed Banks

2007 3 $2,614,928,000 $2,424,187,0002008 25 $371,945,480,000 $234,321,715,0002009 140 $169,709,160,000 $137,783,121,0002010 157 $92,084,988,000 $78,290,185,0002011 92 $34,922,997,000 $31,071,862,0002012 40 $8,639,694,000 $8,231,282,000Total 457 $679,917,247,000 $492,122,352,000

Note: 2012 data is for the period January 1 – August 3, 2012 Source: FDIC

Page 14: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

YESTERDAY’S HEADLINES TO THE MARC’S PANELS

Page 15: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Yesterday’s Headlines Peregrine Financial Group Peregrine Financial Group filed for bankruptcy on July 10, 2012

Sentinel Management Group Inc. Two former executives were indicted for allegedly defrauding customers out of more

than $500 million before the futures brokerage went bankrupt in 2007

Interest Rate Manipulation Recently, the oversight panel of the House Financial Services Committee asked the

New York Fed to detail its correspondence with employees from the banks that help set the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR), which is at the center of an alleged multiyear rate-rigging scheme

Today’s Panel Panel 1A: When the Tide Stays Out: Fraud Trends in Slow-Growth Times

FRAUD

Page 16: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Yesterday’s Headlines Consolidation of small banks on the rise The Washington Post recently reported that a growing number of small and medium

sized banks are merging

Fitch: Several companies restructured under chapter 11 remain at risk of another default US Airways Group Inc. and Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. top a list of companies

that restructured under chapter 11 but remain at risk of another default in the future

Return of private-equity buyouts According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, private-equity buyouts are

back but with a twist

Today’s Panel Panel 1B: Capital Markets Update

CAPITAL MARKETS

Page 17: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Yesterday’s Headlines TOUSA Ruling In May 2012, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit said that a

bankruptcy judge did not “clearly err” when he ruled in favor of Tousa’s unsecured Creditors, reversing a district court ruling

RadLax Ruling The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a secured creditor cannot be denied the right to credit-bid

involving the sale of property or other assets as part of a bankruptcy reorganization plan

Stern v. Marshall Ruling One year later, bankruptcy courts and practitioners continue to struggle with the implications of

the decision on claw back claims and counter claims

Today’s Panel

Panel 2A: TOUSA, RadLAX, and more - The Impact of Recent Case Law on Restructuring Professionals

BANKRUPTCY RULINGS

Page 18: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Yesterday’s Headlines Bankruptcies approaching all-time low Consolidation of restructuring practices, reductions in force Increase in prepackaged/prearranged bankruptcy filings Increase in non-bankruptcy advisory services Increase in fraudulent conveyance litigation Continuation of amend and extend by lenders

Today’s Panel Panel 2B: Lessons From the Turnaround Trenches

CORPORATE RENEWAL INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS

Page 19: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Yesterday’s Headlines European Economic Outlook

Recently, George Soros issued a plea to the German government to lead the Eurozone out of recession by boosting growth, creating a joint fiscal authority and guaranteeing common bonds or leave the currency union entirely

Outlook for Commodities In August 2012, energy and precious metals prices increased by 7.8% and 2.8% respectively while

non-energy prices remained flat Knight Capital Group reaches rescue deal with investor group

The Knight Capital Group recently reached a deal to secure a financial lifeline from an investor group that included TD Ameritrade and the Blackstone Group, capping its efforts to stay alive

The 2012 Presidential Election According to a USA Today poll, when asked how much impact the person living in the White House in

2013 will have on the overall economy, 48% in the survey answered, “a great deal” or “a lot”

Tonight’s Keynote Speaker David B. Rusate, Managing Director of Foreign Exchange and Commodity Risk Management, GE Capital

GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ISSUES

Page 20: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Yesterday’s Headlines SEC recommends municipal security reform amid municipal bankruptcies In a recently released report, the SEC called for structural improvements to the $3.7

trillion municipal securities market amid a recent uptick in city bankruptcies

The impact of unions on municipalities Chicago Teachers Union went on strike on September 10, 2012

Pension Debt Overwhelms Bankrupt San Bernardino, California San Bernardino, the third California city to seek bankruptcy protection since June, is

saddled with huge pension debt

Tomorrow’s Keynote Speaker Richard M. Daley, Former Mayor of Chicago

FINANCIAL DIFFICULTIES FACING MUNICIPALITIES

Page 21: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Yesterday’s Headlines Regulators say loan quality improving According to a review by the Federal Reserve and two other regulators, the credit quality

of large loan commitments owned by financial institutions regulated in the U.S. improved in 2012 for the third consecutive year

Amend and Extend Continues

Are banks finally strong enough to absorb the losses that they’re going to take relating to these loans?

Is the Credit Market “Red Hot” In recent months, private equity owned companies with the lowest corporate ratings have

been successful in refinancing maturing debt

Tomorrow’s Closing Panel Views from Inside the Special Asset and Workout Groups of Commercial Banks

WHERE ARE THE REFERRALS FROM THE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS?

Page 22: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

CONFERENCE AGENDA

Page 23: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

1:30 p.m. Short Break to re-arrange this room

1:45 p.m. 2 Concurrent Panels (4 total, pick 2) with coffee break in between

5:00 p.m. Opening reception (Grand Ballroom, 2nd Floor)

6:00 p.m. Dinner with keynote speaker, David Rusate

8:30 p.m. Nightcap Reception (Caliterra Restaurant)

CONFERENCE AGENDA Thursday, September 13

Page 24: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

7:30 a.m. Breakfast Buffet (Grand Ballroom, 2nd Floor)

8:30 a.m. Keynote Speaker, Former Mayor of Chicago, Richard Daley

9:30 a.m. Coffee Break

9:50 a.m. Closing Panel and Raffle Prizes (must be present to win!)

CONFERENCE AGENDA Friday, September 14

Page 25: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

SPONSORSHIP THANKS

Page 26: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

PLATINUM SPONSOR

Page 27: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

PLATINUM SPONSOR

Page 28: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

PLATINUM SPONSOR

Page 29: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

PLATINUM SPONSOR

Page 30: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Amherst Partners, LLC Associated Commercial Finance, Inc. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Citizens Bank Business Finance First Midwest Bank Asset Based Lending FirstMerit Bank Business Credit Getzler Henrich & Associates, LLC HYPERAMS, LLC

GOLD SPONSORS

Page 31: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Maynards Industries Inc. Mesirow Financial Consulting, LLC Neal Gerber & Eisenberg LLP NRC Realty & Capital Advisors, LLC Schafer and Weiner, PLLC Taft Stettinius & Hollister LLP Tiger Group Wipfli Turnaround and Restructuring Services

GOLD SPONSORS (CONTINUED)

Page 32: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Opening Reception Gould & Ratner LLP Dinner Chicago Capital Holdings LLC Hilco Appraisal Winston & Strawn LLP Nightcap Reception AccuVal Associates, Incorporated Barron Business Consulting Breakfast Deloitte CRG Varnum

EVENT SPONSORS

Page 33: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Coffee Breaks Golan & Christie LLP Shaw Gussis Fishman Glantz Wolfson & Towbin LLC Raffle Chicago Capital Holdings LLC Marsh & McLennan Companies North Mill Capital Tuesday Morning Acquisitions Group Willow Tree Consulting Group

EVENT SPONSORS (CONTINUED)

Page 34: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

2012 PLANNING COMMITTEE

Page 35: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Scott Eisenberg, Amherst Partners Rob Folland, Thompson Hine Tom Goldblatt, Monomoy Capital Partners Harold Israel, Kaye Scholer Jim Kelly, First Business Capital Corp Brian Klein, Maslon Edelman Borman & Brand Bob Koester, MSI Financial Jonathan Martin, Amherst Partners Robert Michaels, Robinson Curley & Clayton

2012 PLANNING COMMITTEE

Page 36: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Jim Nichols, Eide Bailly Michael O’Neil, Taft Stettinius & Hollister Phil Ostroski, Citizens Bank Business Finance John Ratelle, Marsh & McLennan Companies Elizabeth Richert, Coleman Law Firm Joel Schneider, Hilco Real Estate Craig Siiro, Integrated Consulting Services Barbara Yong, Golan & Christie

2012 PLANNING COMMITTEE (CONTINUED)

Page 37: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Chris Glatz Sue Fischer

And the great support from all the other chapter administrators who helped promote the MARC locally in the geographic regions!

CONFERENCE ADMINISTRATORS

Page 38: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

BE A WINNER!

Page 39: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Great Raffle Prizes*… Apple IPAD 2

$300 Apple Store Gift Card

$300 Best Buy Gift Card

Portable Digital TV *Drawing will take place Friday at the closing panel session

STAY FOR THE ENTIRE CONFERENCE AND WIN!

Page 40: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

CONFERENCE REMINDERS

Page 41: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Break After the First Panels ~ St. Claire Meeting Room

Continuing Education Credits Available

Handout Materials Online

Evaluation Forms

Tweet About Us Throughout the MARC!

#marc2012

HOUSEKEEPING ITEMS

Page 42: TURNAROUND€¦ · Source: Edward I. Altman and Brenda J. Kuehne, “Defaults and Returns in the HighYield Bond Market: First Half 2012 Review”, July 30, 2012 - U.S. BANK FAILURES

Dedicated to Corporate Renewal

HAVE A GREAT CONFERENCE!

©2012 Turnaround Management Association