TURKEY’S EU MEMBERSHIP: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGESSophie Di Francesco-Mayot

Monash European and EU Centre, Monash University

Outline

Brief history Membership conditions Discourses “For” and “Against” Turkish EU

membership Official views: UK, French, German, Turkish Public opinions: European and Turkish Current Challenges & Future prospects

Reflective Questions

Is Turkey a European Country? What is the nature of the EU? Will Turkey be an asset or a liability to

the EU? What are the economic, political, social-

cultural & religious implications of Turkish accession?

Brief History

1959 Turkey applied for “associate membership”

1963 the ‘Ankara Agreement’ 1970s ‘Additional protocol’ 1987 application for formal membership into EC 1995 establishment of Custom Union 1999 Helsinki European Council officially

recognises Turkey as candidate for membership 2004 initiation of EU negotiations with Turkey 2005 Turkey’s official status as candidate

for full membership.

Membership conditions

1) Legal requirements Article 237 Treaty of Rome

‘any European state may apply to become a member of the Community’.

Article F Maastricht Treatymember states shall have ‘systems of government […] founded on the principles of democracy’.

Membership conditions

2) ‘Copenhagen Criteria’ 1993- European Council establishes three

criteria:1. Stable institutions guaranteeing2. Functioning market economy and the

capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union;

3. Ability to take on the obligations of membership,

3) The accession process Negotiations between candidate country and

European Commission.

Discourses “For” and “Against”Turkish EU membership

Geographic Debate

Unique geo-strategic position would contribute to European security.

Invaluable bridge between Europe and Asia.

97% of its territory lies in Asia

For Against

Political Debate

Turkey a vibrant democracy.

Strengthen pluralistic politics & improve human rights.

Strong NATO ally. Undermine

European credibility.

Not a mature European-style democracy.

Human rights abused. Amnesty

International’s annual report

Europe would import the Kurdish issue.

For Against

Economic Debate

Populous & youthful population

2011- fastest growing economy in Europe (8.5%)

2013- Turkey expected to have 3.5% growth (IMF)

“too big, too poor and too Muslim.

Underdeveloped economy

Its GDP per capita less than half EU average.

For Against

Identity Debate

Limitations of “Clash of Civilisation” theory

EU open to Islamic world.

European identity based on values

Euro-Islam against Islamic radicalisation.

Historic & cultural roots in Central Asia and Middle East.

Lacks shared experiences which prompted drive for united Europe.

Cultural & religious traditions are fundamentally different from Christian Europe.

For Against

The EU and Turkish membership

Official UK view

4 November 2009,  David Miliband, stated “I am very clear that Turkish accession to the EU

is important and will be of huge benefit to both Turkey and the EU.”

27 July 2010, David Cameron, promised to "fight" for Turkey's membership of EU. “A European Union without Turkey at its heart is

not stronger but weaker... not more secure but less... not richer but poorer.”

Official French view

 Nicolas Sarkozy opposed Turkish EU membership: “I do not believe that Turkey

belongs to Europe, and for a simple reason: because it is in Asia Minor”…what I wish to offer Turkey is a true partnership with Europe, but not integration into Europe".

François Hollande: open talks on chapter related to EU support for regions

Official German view

 A privileged partnership September 2011 Merkel stated:

“We don't want the full membership of Turkey. But we don't want to lose Turkey as an important country.”

February 2013 Merkel stated: “I believe we have a long negotiation road ahead of us. Although I am sceptical, I am for the continuation of the process and for opening a new chapter.”

European Public

2006 Eurobarometer: 59% EU-27 citizens against

Underpinning factors: Human rights Job loss Threat to National cultures

Support - predominantly based on ‘right-based’ post-national arguments

Opposition- mainly connected with ‘identity-related’ arguments

Turkey’s view on EU membership

Istanbul

Ankara

Official Turkish Opinion

September 2012, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, PM of Turkey:

"There are 5 million Turks in Europe and 3 million Turk in Germany alone. We are a natural member of the European Union. Germany invited Turkish workers 50 years ago, however 50 years have passed and we have waited at the European Union's doorstep. No other country has experienced such a thing. We will be patient until a point. However when we cross that point, we will bring light to the situation and decide accordingly."

Turkish public opinion

Increasingly sceptical 2006 Eurobarometer survey:

43% of Turkish citizens view the EU positively Turks divided on whether to join. 2007 poll Turkish support for EU (41.9% ) with 27.7%

opposed & 24% indifferent. 2009 poll support for accession (48%) & negative views of EU

(32%). 2012 Transatlantic Trends survey- (53%) of Turks have an

unfavourable view of EU.  Majority Turks believe working with Asia more important to

their national interests than with Europe. 44% of Turks believe EU membership good for the economy

in contrast with 61% for EU citizens. 

The Cyprus Issue

Divided almost 40 years Conflict between the

Republic of Cyprus and Turkey over the Turkish occupied northern part of Cyprus

Chapters

Frozen Chapters

Chapters Frozen: 1,2,3,9,11,13,14,15,17,22,23,24,26,29,30,31,33,(34)

17 Frozen making it difficult for Turkey to complete Acquis.

The EU Council froze the opening of eight chapters over Turkey's rejection to open its ports & airports to traffic from Cyprus in 2006

Some of the chapters do not proceed to the next stage in the process, because they are blocked by Cyprus.

Some of the chapters do not proceed to the next stage in the process, because they are blocked by France.

Current challenges

February 2013- France agrees to lift objections

28 May 2013- Turkish government’s crackdown on nationwide protests

25 June 2013- member states resume talks with Turkey. End of 3-year suspension of talks.

EP criticised Turkey’s handling of demonstration: “disproportionate unbalance and irrational declarations”

Anti- Government Protests

25 June 2013: EU rebuked Turkey on anti-government protesters.

EU governments back German-inspired proposal

9 October 2013: European Commission report on reforms & human rights in Turkey

Future Prospects

Turkey EU membership presents EU with many challenges & opportunities.

EU could serve as a model for the Middle Eastern region by demonstrating that democracy and Islam are not antagonists.

The EU a model for the world? Built on recognition of universal rights & values as opposed to exclusionary ideas of cultural and religious homogeneity.