turkey long-term power market outlook...8 13 february 2019 source: bloomberg nef electricity demand...

Turkey Long-Term Power Market Outlook

Katherine Poseidon

13 February 2019

1 13 February 2019

Primary researchBNEF

Clean energy Advanced transport

Commodities Digital industry

Solar Wind Storage Impact on

power &

utilities

Frontier

power

Electrified

transport

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driving

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mobility

Impact on

transport

Impact on

oil & power

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gas

Oil &

products

Power

Decentralized

energy

Internet of

things

Automation &

advanced

analytics

Impact on

industrials

and energy

Carbon Advanced

materials

2 13 February 2019

500 Bloomberg research professionals in 19 locations*

San

FranciscoWashington DC

Sao Paulo

Cape Town Sydney

Singapore

Zurich

Munich

New

Delhi

Hong

Kong

BeijingNew York

NorthAmerica

210

SouthAmerica

6

Europe160

Africa30

AsiaPacific

95

Tokyo

Milan

Shanghai

London

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Dubai

* Part of the Bloomberg LP network of 19,000 employees in 176 locations.

Seoul

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3 13 February 2019

Supporting leading organizations globallyEnergy, Utilities & Resources Transportation, Industrials & Technology

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4 13 February 2019

2018 New Energy

Outlook• Global coverage, with detailed, bottom-up modelling

for 22 countries.

• Total demand and intraday, seasonal load profiles.

• Active project pipeline and near-term BNEF country

and industry forecasts.

• Model the supply mix by deploying least-cost

technology options to meet demand

• New subsidies and policy targets are excluded.

5 13 February 2019

Source: Bloomberg NEF

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Historical world power generation mix

NEO2018 power generation mix

29% fossil fuels by 2050

Coal

Gas

Oi l

Hydro

Nuclear Wind

Solar

Other

48% solar

& wind

64% renewables

The global energy transition in one chart: 50 by 50

New Energy Outlook 2018

6 13 February 2019

New Energy Outlook

2018 - Turkey

7 13 February 2019


Capacity mix transforms – 54% fossil fuels in 2017, 22% in 2050

22%

27%

4%2%

32%

1%1%

8%3%

201785GW

CoalGasPeaker GasOilNuclearHydroGeothermalBiomassOnshore windOffshore windUtility-scale PVSmall-scale PVSmall-scale batteriesUtility-scale batteriesDemand response

5%4%

12%

1%5%

16%

24%

1%

14%

12%1%

3%2%

2050260GW

New Energy Outlook 2018 - Turkey

8 13 February 2019


Electricity demand grows 126%

GDP

Electricity generation

Emissions

0

100

200

300

400

2012 2030 2050

Indexed (2017 = 100)

-212783

116171257289

350364507

9501,1751,176

1,7473,444

3,605

Japan

CanadaAustralia

Mexico

South KoreaEurope

BrazilUnited States

TurkeyOther LatAm

Southeast Asia

Sub-Saharan AfricaMiddle East & N-Africa

Rest of the World

IndiaChina

TWh

2017-30 2030-40 2040-50

Electricity generation and

electricity intensity

Change in gross electricity

demand


9 13 February 2019

Source: Bloomberg NEF; Note: Coal prices refer to imported hard coal.

0

20

40

60

80

100

2012 2020202520302035204020452050

$/t (real 2017)

Fuel prices still driven by global dynamics

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

$/MMBtu (real 2017)

Imported hard

coal priceNatural gas price


10 13 February 2019

Source: Turkish Wind Energy Association Source: Sinoimex

259

327

96

13

2015 2016 2017 1Q2018

$ million

Wind and solar costs decline globally

Chinese PV

exports to Turkey

Operational wind

turbines by

manufacturer

Nordex25%

Vestas23%

Enercon21%

GE Renewables

17%

Siemens Gamesa

10% Other4%


11 13 February 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

$/MWh (real 2017)

CCGT

Utility-scale PV Coal

Onshore wind

Tipping point 1: PV and wind LCOE vs coal and gas LCOE

Source: Bloomberg NEF; Note: PV LCOE is for tracking systems, assuming capacity factors of 15% to 19% in 2018 and 30% to 34% in 2018 for onshore wind; CCGT is

combined cycle gas turbine.


12 13 February 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

$/MWh (real 2017)

CCGT

Utility-scale PV

Onshore wind

Coal

Tipping point 2: PV and wind LCOE vsmarginal cost of existing coal and gas

Source: Bloomberg NEF; Note: PV LCOE is for tracking systems, assuming capacity factors of 15% to 19% in 2018 and 30% to 34% in 2018 for onshore wind; CCGT is

combined cycle gas turbine.


13 13 February 2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GW Demand response

Utility-scale batteries

Small-scale batteries

Small-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Peaker Gas

Gas

Coal-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GW

Installed capacity triples by 2050, 68% renewables


Cumulative

installed capacity

Gross capacity

additions and

retirements


14 13 February 2019


46GW of new flexible capacity to integrate renewables

Centralized Capacity

Decentralized Capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 20172020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GW

0

10

20

30

40

50

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GW Other flexiblecapacity

Demandresponse

Utility-scalebatteries

Small-scalebatteries

Peaker Gas

Centralized v

decentralized capacity

Cumulative installed

flexible capacity


15 13 February 2019

Generation is 88% zero-carbon by 2050


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWhSmall-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Peaker Gas

Gas

Coal

Renewables share

Electricity generation by fuel

(stacked area) and renewables

share (line)


16 13 February 2019


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

%Coal

Gas

PeakerGas

Nuclear

Onshorewind

Utility-scalePV

Gas utilisation drops, while coal rises in the short-term


17 13 February 2019


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

00:00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

GW Demand response



Small-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Peaker Gas

Gas

Coal

Hourly generation profile shifts dramatically

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

00:00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00

GW Demand response



Small-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Peaker Gas

Gas

Coal

Daily dispatch on a

typical day in 2Q in 2017

Daily dispatch on a

typical day in 2Q in 2040


18 13 February 2019


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2018-20

2021-25

2026-30

2031-35

2036-40

2041-45

2046-50

$bn (real 2017)

Small-scale PV

Utility-scale PV

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Peaker Gas

Gas

Coal

$276 billion new investment required

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2018-20

2021-25

2026-30

2031-35

2036-40

2041-45

2046-50

$m (real 2017)



Investment in new

capacity Investment in

batteries


19 13 February 2019


0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

MtCO2e

Oil

Gas

Coal

Emissions halve over 2017-50

Power sector CO2

emissions


20 13 February 2019

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turkey long-term power market outlook...8 13 february 2019 source: bloomberg nef electricity demand...

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