7/31/2019 Turkey Confronts Troubling Risks in Discrepancy Increase of Syrian Crisis - Turkey News

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Turkey confronts troubling risks in discrepancy

increase of Syrian crisis

Turkey, which has long criticized the Syrian regime for its deadly 16-month-long crackdown on anti-regime protests, faces serious pitfalls in the Syrian crisis, which has evolved through a regional crisis,jeopardizing the stability of Turkey in several respects.

Experts agree that increasingly isolated Syria has nothing to lose while Turkey, with its growingeconomy and active foreign policy, faces serious threats ranging from increasing violence of theterrorist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to growing numbers of refugees crossing the border, fromvaluable trade in the Middle East and the Gulf markets to the image problem of exercising hard power.But the worst threat is the increasing likelihood of sectarian war in Syria, which may spill over intoother countries in the region, including Turkey.

The threat Syria poses has escalated with the shooting down of an unarmed Turkish jet by Syrianforces last Friday, which according to Ankara was on a solo mission to test domestic radar systems.Syria described its shooting down of the Turkish F-4 jet as an act of self-defense, and Turkey, whilesaying the incident would not go unpunished, emphasized that it does not intend to go to war withSyria.

Sedat Lainer, the rector of anakkale 18 Mart University, told Sundays Zaman that Syrian PresidentBashar al-Assads regime is trying to pull Turkey into a war, adding that Assads regime would obtainseveral advantages from this. Firstly, if Turkey and Syria engaged in a war, the Assad regime woulduse this war as a pretext to intensify its power, showing its people that it is fighting against anoccupying power. Secondly, the Assad regime would portray this war as a Turkish-Arab conflict inorder to gain the support of the Arab world, representing itself as a hero of the Arab world. Thirdly, inthe case of a war, the Syrian issue would evolve into a bilateral issue between Turkey and Syria,which would ease pressures on the Assad regime as attention would turn from Syrian internal politicsto bilateral politics, said Lainer. Fawaz Tello, a prominent dissident who resigned from Syrias mainopposition umbrella group in exile, the Syrian National Council (SNC), last May, told Sundays Zaman

that Turkey was willing to stop what was happening in Syria, particularly after Assad failed to fulfill hiscommitments, adding that Turkey needs support from the international community if it is to take theinitiative in Syria.

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7/31/2019 Turkey Confronts Troubling Risks in Discrepancy Increase of Syrian Crisis - Turkey News

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Turkey wants to take a step in Syria but needs political and financial support from both the regionalactors and the international actors, including NATO and the UN. It is very obvious that Turkey, in theevent of a conflict with Syria, will not only face the Assad regime but also Assads allies, including Iran,Russia and China, said Tello.

Russia and China have used their power of veto twice in the UN Security Council to shield Syria fromharsher international sanctions, arguing firmly against a military intervention.

Syria allowed Abdullah calan, the leader of the PKK, now imprisoned on the island of mral, to takeshelter and direct the terrorist organization from within its borders for several years, ending in 1998when Syria had to deport calan because of pressure from Turkey. It seems inclined to play the PKKcard against Turkey, since its neighbor to the north has taken a hard line on the issue and criticizedDamascus when it chose to crush demonstrations calling for reforms by opening fire on protestors.It is claimed that the Syrian regime, which was giving the PKK a hard time until very recently, hasstarted to allow PKK members to live in a certain region mostly populated by Kurds in Syria.A military confrontation between Turkey and Syria would allow Damascus to play the PKK card muchmore openly and effectively against Turkey.

Regarding the PKK threat, Lainer stated that since last year Syria has been involved in the PKKissue, inciting PKK attacks in Turkey. Syria is ready to support the PKK to the utmost. As the relationshave become strained between the two countries, PKK attacks have also increased, said Lainer.Agreeing with Lainer, Tello stated that the Assad regime was going to play the PKK card, which wasvery dangerous for the Turkish state and its sovereignty. Assad is going to allow the PKK to continuetheir activities on Syrian soil and will also arm them, said Tello.

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