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Kokemuksia Eduskunnan

tulevaisuusvaliokunnasta 1999-2011

Osmo KuusiVATT

VATT/Parliament of FinlandVATT/Parliament of FinlandVATT/Parliament of FinlandVATT/Parliament of Finland

Eduskunnan tulevaisuusvaliokunta

Kehittää tulevaisuuspoliittista keskustelua hallituksen ja yleensä yhteiskunnan kanssa.

Arvioida hallituksen raportteja ja vastata niihin

Organisoida ja koordinoida teknologian arviointia eduskunnassa

Seurata tulevaisuudentutkimuksen ja ennakointityön tuloksia

Hallituksen ja eduskunnan välinen tulevaisuusdialogiMuodolliset puitteet: Kerran vaalikaudessa hallitus antaa raportin pitkän ajan näkymistä

ja hallituksen tavoitteista Pääministeri päättää raportin aiheenValtioneuvoston kanslia valmistelee raportin, joka hallituksen

käsittelyn jälkeen annetaan eduskunnalleJärjestetään alueellisia tulevaisuusfoorumeita selonteosta

keskustelemiseksiValtioneuvoston kanslia seuraa hallituksen kannanottojen

toteutumista

Tulevaisuusselonteot1993: Suomi ja sen toimintaympäristön muutokset1996: Suomen ja Euroopan tulevaisuus1997: Suomen talouden pitkänajan näkymät2001: Alueellinen kehitys2005: Ikääntyvän Suomen väestökehitys ja siihen

varautuminen2009: Ilmastonmuutos

Valiokunnan omat pääprojektit vaalikaudella 2007-2011

Tulevaisuuden yleissivistys Maailman biotuotannon haasteet ja ilmastonmuutosNanotekniikka, erityisesti hiilinanoputketSopimusten Venäjä, Venäjä 2017 skenaarioiden päivitysHyvinvointivaltion kipupisteetRaportit:

www.eduskunta.fi/tulevaisuusvaliokunta/raportit

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Parliamentary TA Practices in Different Countries EPTA: European Parliamentary Technology Assessment

network

In Germany, closely connected to the Parliament but ”the director of TAB is scientifically responsible for the studies of the TAB”. TAB researchers used to do the studies.

In United Kingdom, POST is closely linked to the Parliament but the independence is stressed both in the selection of assessment themes and during the assessment processes.

In Danmark Teknologirådet: ”Informed consent of citizens”, complicated relationship with the Parliament

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Less Parliamentary Oriented TA- Practices In Swiss, TA-Swiss connected to ”Schweizerische

Wissenschaft- und Technologierat”. Based on projects made by external experts. Detailed ”Internal Guidelines for Project Management”

In Austria, connected to ”Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften”. ITA researchers used to do the studies. Scientific neutrality stressed

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TA/Foresight Activities in the Finnish Parliament: Filtering of Themes The key requirement: Champions of the theme

in the Committee for the Future MPs make proposals based on discussions

with the Committee Secretariat At least the Chairman and vice-Chairman

have to support the proposal Often the TA-advicer makes short evaluation The Committee decides

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Management Structures

TA Studies supervised by a Steering Group (SG) Consist of Parliamentarias Chaiman comes from the Committee for the Future Other Committee invited to nominate SG representatives

about ten SG members in most studies Meetings held every second month or so (differences)

Pre-Studies typically a report of some fifty pages developed in 2-4

months Open relevant questions for the main TA study

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Dissemination of TA Results

Parliamentary debates based on the statements of the Committee for the Future (e.g. The Futures of the Finnish Healthcare -project)

Public hearings in the Parliament ( e.g. Russia 2017 –project)

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Committee Statements and Reports in Media Media attention

Varies from study to studyEspecially the report “Russia 2017 – three

scenarios” was extensively discussed in press and in TV

Reports widely distributed available in the Internet

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Main Projects in the Parliamentary period 2003-2007 Challenges of the Finnish Information Society The Futures of the Finnish Health Care Regional Innovative Environments Democracy and the Futures Russia 2017

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Started Projects in the Recent Parliamentary period Renewal of Finland based on Learning –

creative environments and needed basic skills and attitudes/values in the future

Forests, food and climate change ”Black points” of the Finnish welfare society Nanotechnology (especially carbon nanotubes

and safety problems)

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Production of the Finnish Forest Industry 1955-2006 and projections to the year 2015, Mtn and Mm³ (Hetemäki 2007)

Green: timber, plywood

Blue: pulp

Red: paper, board

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Source:Sten Nilsson IIASA, 2009, P&W=printing and writing paper

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The structural change in the Finnish forest sector is closely related to global challenges

The role of forests in the climate change: carbon uptake and the source of bioenergy

Electronics and paper as substitutes and complements Pulp and timber production in tropical countries

competing with the tradional production in the north Forests, food plants, energy plants and animals as

competitors in the land use especially in tropical countries

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Production costs of leaf tree pulp in best factories in Asia and South America and in Nordic countries (Source: Häggblom 2006)

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Project of the Committee for the Future in the Finnish Parliament: Forests, food and water and the challenges of the climate change

Very controversial evaluations concerning the role of forests in the climate change

In materials of IPCC in 2007 the range of shares was 6 % - 18 %.

Prof Pekka Kauppi (2007) has even considered that the net impact would have been even negative

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Sources Sinks

Loss of forests

Fossil sourcesAthmosphere

Oceans

Improved forests

Billion tn/year

Source: Kauppi 2008

Sources and sinks of carbon

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Brazil – Great opportunity for global bioproduction? (Veracel planner Taavi Siuko)

Area 852 milj. ha = US + Germany + Spain. Population 2006 188 milj.

Without taking any new land from rain forests 375 milj. ha. that can be used for more efficient bioproduction

Only 65 milj. ha in efficient or rather efficient use either in food plant production (58 Mha) or in cultivated forests (7 Mha). Other land used for unefficient cattle breeding (190 Mha) or poorly growing forest ( 80 Mha)

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Lot of question marks related to the great opportunities of Brazil

Who owns the land? Great social inequality, unjustice, cattle owners in the power

Growing risk for the use of remaining rain forests because the growing demand of food e.g. in China and the increasing demand of biofuels

Problems related to water and phosphorus, less nitrogen

Efficient use of gene technology one opportunity In principle, only small share of the available land

would be enough for future global needs of pulp

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CHALLENGES OFTHE GLOBAL INFORMATION SOCIETY

(Pekka Himanen 2004) 1. Increasing international tax competition 2. The new global division of labour 3. Population ageing 4. Increasing pressures on the welfare society 5. The second phase of the information society 6. The rise of cultural industries 7. The rise of bio -industries 8. Regional concentration 9. A deepening global divide 10. The spread of a “culture of emergency”

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New project: Renewal of Finland based on

Learning - Challenges of Ubique network society

The first phase of the information society focused on the development of technology, such as network connections

In the second phase, which has now begun, technological development will continue (e.g. RFID); however, ubique network society means first of all changes in the way of life

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Futures of the Finnish Health Care System

Prevention is much more cost- effective (in healthy years of life) than cure. Active role of citizens and social communities in the promotion of their health

Key role of information and communication technology or ICT

New regional organization of the health care in Finland is needed ( e.g.”Welfare districts” )

Future costs of new new cures based on gene and stem cell technology (e.g. new drugs)

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Russia 2017 - Background of the Scenarios

Historical developments of Russia and Finland have been closely interconnected. For Finland its big neighbour has always been very important.

The year 2017 is the centenary of both the Russian Revolution and the independence of Finland.

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Three Main Economic Dimensions of the Scenarios

Energy export capacity of Russia can either increase (+) or decrease (-)

The economy and exports will either diversify from energy producing sectors (+) or not (-)

Diversification can take place either based on new high-tech or new information technology based sectors or inherited industrial sectors

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Three Possible Social Developments in Russia

Planned development towards true democracy based on big diversifying energy companies controlled by the strong government (“Gazprom”, compare chaebols in Korea , keiretsus in Japan )

Middle class dominated permissive society developing towards genuine democracy. Innovative use of ICT in a society actively looking for international investments.

Elite with power secures its power and privileges using nationalistic rhetoric. No genuine democracy.

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Three Combined Scenarios

Economic development

Social development

Energy export capacity +, diversification

Energy export capacity –,diversification

Energy export capacity same or less, no diversification

Planned development based on big diversifying companies

1. INFLUENTIALGLOBAL ACTOR BASED ON ENERGY EXPERTISE

Society of middle class and networks

2.PERMESSIVE MOSAIC RUSSIA

Elite with power secures its power

3. POWER ELITES’ RUSSIA

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Foresight Methods used by Committee Foresight Methods used by Committee for the Futurefor the Future

*Futures mapping methods:*Futures mapping methods:Multi-phase scenario building- vision, megatrends, weak signals, Multi-phase scenario building- vision, megatrends, weak signals,

scenarios, strategy: The Future of work (2000)scenarios, strategy: The Future of work (2000)Argument Delphi method: Gerontechnology (2001), Energy 2010 Argument Delphi method: Gerontechnology (2001), Energy 2010

(2001), Human genome and stem cells (2003), Futures of the (2001), Human genome and stem cells (2003), Futures of the Finnish health care system (2006) Finnish health care system (2006)

Morphological Matrixes: Gerontechnology (2001)Morphological Matrixes: Gerontechnology (2001)Scenorios of visionaries: Finnish information society (2004), Future Scenorios of visionaries: Finnish information society (2004), Future

of Democracy (2006)of Democracy (2006)

* Decision models:* Decision models:Weighted decision trees: Gerontechnology (2001)Weighted decision trees: Gerontechnology (2001)

*Participatory foresight:*Participatory foresight: Futures workshops: especially in Knowledge management (2001), Futures workshops: especially in Knowledge management (2001), Regional innovation systems - many local seminars (2002-2005), Regional innovation systems - many local seminars (2002-2005), Russia 2017 – scenarios based on many small papers of experts Russia 2017 – scenarios based on many small papers of experts

(2007)(2007)

(compare Kuusi 2004)(compare Kuusi 2004)